An examination of 80,000 enterprise bargaining agreements finds that on average 80% of each increase in compulsory super has been at the expense of wages.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Conversation’s 2020 economic survey points to a dismal year, with no progress on many of the key measures that matter for Australians and an increase in the unemployment rate.
The forecast for Australia’s economic growth in 2019-20 has been cut by 0.25%, and the projected surplus for this financial year slashed by A$2.1 billion.
The Conversation
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Mathias Cormann and Jim Chalmers on the mid-year budget update
The Conversation, CC BY29.7 MB(download)
The figures indicate a worsening economy, but the government has sought to put a positive spin on the situation, saying the Australian economy is showing resilience.
The update has slashed growth and surplus forecasts, as the economy is buffeted by global and domestic pressures.
Lukas Coch/AAP
In his second “vision statement” Albanese says he wants to pursue his “productivity project”, and paints himself as a fiscal conservative well removed from Bill Shorten’s tax and spend approach.
Projections are often be repeatedly wrong. That’s because the models don’t learn from mistakes.
Shutterstock
From wage growth to renewable energy to religion, projections are being treated as predictions. We’d be better off insisting on genuine forecasts.
Failure to further strengthen the compulsory super system would be disadvantageous to many future retirees and be an added burden on a later generation of taxpayers.
Shutterstock
Liberal senator Andrew Bragg is one of the Coalition backbenchers who oppose the scheduled superannuation guarantee rise to 12%. They are looking to the retirement incomes inquiry to leverage change.
The ASX 200 slid 2.9% on Thursday amid less than completely encouraging news at home, and awful news from abroad.
Shutterstock
We’ve 41,000 more long-term unemployed than would be expected given the unemployment rate. Something has changed.
As uncertain as 2019-20 is, The Conversation’s team of 20 leading economists are in broad agreement that the outlook isn’t good. Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will also have to deal with the unexpected.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Conversation’s distinguished panel predicts unusually weak growth, dismal spending, no improvement in either unemployment or wage growth, and an increased chance of recession.
Slicing up to 0.5 percentage points off wage increases for five years would cut wages by 1% of GDP.
Shutterstock
Boosting productivity isn’t enough, no matter how much you do it.
Things will continue to look good enough for long enough to help the government fight the election. Beyond that, the Conversation Economic Panel is worried.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Conversation has assembled a forecasting team of 19 academic economists from 12 universities across six states. Together, they assign a 25% probability to a recession within two years.
Market forces are unlikely to lift wage growth higher without help.
Governments can’t undo the technological changes behind frozen wages and rising inequality. The best policy is to invest in education and training to give workers skills of value in the new economy.
The RBA governor gave a speech on demographics and monetary policy.
AAP