Joseph Cabosky, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Political campaigns and journalists often turn to social media to see how voters feel about an election. But the numbers they see there may not accurately reflect the electorate’s views.
According to election results, areas with low levels of tertiary education swung strongly to the Coalition in NSW and Queensland, helping propel Scott Morrison to victory.
Approval ratings are usually a good way to predict the winner of the next presidential election. But Trump’s numbers fall far outside any historical trends.
You could compare election opinion polls to penalty shoot-outs at a World Cup final: there’s huge pressure to get it right and we remember the big misses most of all.
Americans’ votes in 2020 will likely be a statement on what they think of Trump – rather than a measured choice between him and the Democratic candidate.
Military veterans have concerns about climate change at about the same level as nonveterans, a recent study suggests. What might this mean for acceptance of climate science?
Back in 2016, the Brexit vote and US presidential election seemed like a nationalist one-two punch that could knock out the European Union. Instead, EU support actually rose, new research shows.
Policymaking is no longer based solely on what a party stands for. Now, it also matters how a decision is going to play in the opinion polls – and that’s a problem for our political system.
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University