Data since 1950s show Americans have always been wary of refugees. A public opinion expert explains current attitudes toward Syrian refugees and what it means for building consensus on policy.
Neither Galaxy Research nor the Institute of Public Affairs think-tank discussed the most interesting data they garnered from polling on free speech and reform to Section 18C.
It’s human nature to notice or search out information that supports what you already believe and discount or avoid data to the contrary. The problem comes in when you don’t recognize this bias is in play.
The polls convinced many that Clinton was headed to the White House. But the polls were misleading – and one behavioral scientist thinks emotion led respondents to mislead pollsters on purpose.
People around the world were shocked when Hillary Clinton, ahead in many polls, didn’t end up the U.S.‘ president-elect. But that doesn’t mean the polls themselves were wrong.
Given the failure of British polls to predict the outcome of Brexit, is it possible Donald Trump could produce a surprise result of even greater proportions?
Survey findings are typically considered in isolation in the media, with no understanding of context, of what is within and what is beyond the expected.
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University