AUSTRALIA BY NUMBERS: The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released the first batch of its census data. We’ve asked some of the country’s top demographers and statisticians to crunch the numbers on Australia’s population: how we live, where we work, who our families are and how we spend our time.
Here, Genevieve Heard has a look at the institution of marriage. Is it still relevant to Australians? The data says yes.
As the issue of access to marriage in Australia continues to fuel social and political debate, it is timely to reflect on the vitality of the institution. Newly released data from the 2011 census permit just such an assessment.
For decades, we have heard that marriage is on the wane, in Australia and across the secular West. The true picture is somewhat more complex.
The married minority
Certainly, the married proportion of the total population has been falling. It is no longer the case that a majority of the population is married.
In 2011, 49% of Australians aged 15 and over were in a registered marriage, down from 51% in 2001. Taking a longer view, the married proportion was as high as 64% during the mid-20th century marriage boom. Although this peak was historically unusual, we must go back to 1901 to find another census year in which the married population was less than half the total population aged 15 and older.
The proportion of marriages has fallen in all age groups up to and including 65–69 years. Slightly increased proportions among those aged 70 years and older may reflect continuing improvements in life expectancy and partner survival, rather than any change in propensity to marry.
The decrease among Australians aged 50–54 years and 55–59 years has been greatest — more than three percentage points since 2006, and seven percentage points since 2001.
Popular partnerships
So the proportion of Australians who are married has been falling across successive census years, but does this really measure the popularity of marriage? After all, the census is merely a snapshot of the Australian population at one point in time, and of those who were married at this point in time.
It can be more instructive to consider proportions ever married (counting those who indicated they were separated, divorced or widowed, as well as those who were married).
These data testify to the continuing popularity of marriage. At the 2011 census, the proportion ever married exceeded 70% at 35–39 years of age, exceeded 90% at 55–59 years, and peaked at 96% among those aged 75-79 years, 80-84 years and 85 years or more.
To a large extent, the figures for older Australians reflect the marriage trends of decades past, rather than recent trends. Nevertheless, it is difficult to argue that marriage is on the wane when the institution remains the dominant partnership model for adult Australians.
The rise of de facto relationships
It may be more accurate to claim that Australians are spending less time within the institution of marriage.
This is because we are marrying later, and are not necessarily remaining married for life. The proportion of Australians who were separated or divorced has remained stable over the decade to 2011, at 11%.
Of course, many Australians — almost 10% of those aged 15 years and over in 2011, compared to 7% in 2001 — live in de facto marriages, or cohabiting relationships. The prevalence of cohabitation varies greatly by age group, peaking at 22% among those aged 25–29 years.
This category includes same-sex as well as opposite-sex partnerships (this was not the first time that same-sex relationships were enumerated, but it was the first time same-sex couples were able to describe their partners as “husband” or “wife”).
Settling down, living apart
The continuing increase in proportions cohabiting offsets the continuing decrease in proportions married, such that the overall proportion of Australians living in any kind of residential partnership has remained steady at 59% over the past decade.
Proportions living with a partner are highest at ages 35–39 and 40–44 years. Even so, one quarter of Australians in these age groups are not living with a partner. In the group aged 30–34 years, over 30% are not living with a partner.
We know that some of these have previously been married, and we cannot tell how many have previously lived in de facto marriages. Many, however, have simply delayed family formation beyond the ages at which young adults were once expected to “settle down”.
Finally, it is important to note that the census does not capture all committed relationships or self-defined partnerships. Specifically, those in “living-apart-together” relationships — those who identify themselves as being in a relationship with someone who does not reside in the same household — are effectively hidden. This proportion has been estimated at 9% of the adult population, or 24% of those who were not cohabiting or married.
The census cannot tell us everything about contemporary Australian partnerships, but it reveals much. For better or worse, marriage remains relevant to most Australians — at some stage.
John Coochey
Mr
You may be interested to know that over ten years ago ABS planned to remove the married question from the Census on the grounds that "X proportion are now born outside an officially registered union" or words to that effect. The marriage question was there to assess the breeding population, You should be wary of accepting any ABS data particularly Census at face value. The UK does not ask income because it is so understated and ABS staff will tell you off the record that it is useful for only inter…
Read moreMargaret Rose STRINGER
retired but interested
Being a complete tyro on the matter of - just about everything, come to think of it... sighh... anyway; knowing nothing about the department that handles Oz statistics, I'm amazed to read so many very negative comments about its activities. John's is far from the first, I mean. I wonder why it engenders such anti feelings?
For myself, "marriage remains relevant" because I experienced nothing but honour and delight and wonder in committing myself to the best man in the world. And I know that, were he still alive, he would say something along those lines.
For some Australians - even some of those of marriageable age today! - the idea of the commitment remains relevant. Very.
John Coochey
Mr
It is not a question of being negative it is one of not trying to do brain surgery with a chain saw, leaving aside deliberate advocacy research done by ABS such as the 95/6 Women's Safety Survey there are enormous anomalies in ABS data, for example fifteen per cent of people do not fill in their income at all. If you look at their time use survey women claim to spend (from memory) thirteen hours more a week with their partners than do men. When I studied national accounting at uni the lecturer pointed out the discrepancy between Household Expenditure Surveys (which are extremely intrusive and change respondents behavior via what is called Hawthorn Effect) and actual excise figures twenty per cent of beer is poured down the drain, that figure is now closer to forty per centt
Glenn Capuano
Demographer with .id consulting
Not 15%, in fact only about half that. 7.9% non response to income in 2011
http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/statementspersonincp?opendocument&navpos=430
Ron Chinchen
Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)
One issue that may distort the figures on marriage and de facto relationships, is related to payment of benefits (unemployment, old age, disability) where benefits for a couple are somewhat less than the combined total of two separate people. I wonder how many de facto relationships are not officially acknowledged and I wonder how many couples decide to divorce or at least 'separate' when on government benefits.
One of the factors that probably has increased people being single, or those in relationships…
Read moreJack Arnold
Director
An interesting article on a currently contentious issue.
Now how about reporting the huge discrepancies between personal & household income in urban regional centres & metropolitan suburbs. Then perhaps look at the impact of decentralising government jobs into urban regional centres to reduce overcrowding, pollution & health problems in metro centres.
The high speed NBN will make this decentralisation very feasible, so it is probably time to begin planning now.
Tristan Cooke
logged in via Twitter
And all this despite the fact that 'no religion' is rising:
http://humansindesign.com/post/25563229570/did-the-2011-australian-census-get-religion-right
John Coochey
Mr
In earlier years C of E was a euphemism for agnostic, what I have not seen is how many people do not answer that question at all. It was only recently introduced into the English Census which gave rise to the Jeddi movement. When you ask intrusive questions you should expect a large number of flippant answers, sometimes known as Margaret Meade effect going back to the debunking of her social anthropology of Coming of Age in Samoa. By the way something I forgot to mention is that in every Australian Census there have been more married women than men!
Glenn Capuano
Demographer with .id consulting
Religion is an optional question (technically the only one), but only 8.6% didn't answer. And 3.4% of that is due to "person non response" - ie. no form received at all, so all questions were not answered.
http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/statementspersonrelp?opendocument&navpos=430
Margaret Rose STRINGER
retired but interested
John, your last comment is very easy to explain - and I wish to all the gods that mankind ever invented that it were not so:
we women outlive you blokes.
Ecco...
John Coochey
Mr
Are you serious? When your partner dies you are no longer married or you would have to divorce them prior to re marrying or it would be bigamy!
Margaret Rose STRINGER
retired but interested
Oh, you poor bastard.
How awful for you, being so practical.
Must be difficult sometimes.
Dale Bloom
Analyst
It seems very little research has been carried out within social science regards the quality of relationships, but respondents to a survey carried out by Relationships Australia gave “Live in partner or de facto spouse” a score of 9 for “Important people in our lives”, as compared to a score of 53 for married spouse.
The score of 9 for “Live in partner or de facto spouse” was only slightly higher than the score of 6 for “Friend from school, university or other post-secondary education”.
http://www.relationships.org.au/corporate-centre/what-we-do/research/australian-relationships-indicators/relationships-indicator-2011
So it seems that a de facto partner was considered of not much more value than a friend from school.
Marriage has been given a lot of bad press, particularly from anti-male, anti-father, anti-marriage feminist propaganda, but it seems marriage has a lot more value than other relationship types, particularly if children are involved.
Byron Smith
PhD candidate in Christian Ethics at University of Edinburgh
Given that that survey from RA is measuring what % of respondents included said relationship as "one of the three most important relationships to you", then the fact that about 10% of Australians live in de facto relationships means that an answer of about 10% is entirely unsurprising. It would be very surprising if the number for de facto partner reported in that survey was higher than the % of Australians in such relationships.
Dale Bloom
Analyst
Byron,
Next to no research has been carried out into de facto relationships, even though nearly 30% of children are now born outside of marriage.
But de facto relationships appear highly unstable, particularly for raising children. Estimates are that 50% of children born to parents in a de facto relationship in the UK, will only have 1 parent by the age of 5.
In the US, nearly 70% of children born to parents in a de facto relationship will only have 1 parent by the age of 10.
I think if the full facts about de facto relationships were made known and compared to marriage, more people would want to get married. However de facto relationships appear to be the relationships most favoured by feminists, so it is unlikely the full facts about de facto relationships will be made known, or much research will be carried out into de facto relationships..
Genevieve Heard
Research fellow, Centre for Population and Urban Research at Monash University
There is in fact plenty of research in Australia and elsewhere about de facto relationships—in my assessment it has been much more popular as a research topic than has marriage, in recent decades.
E.g. Hewitt & De Vaus, Change in the Association Between Premarital Cohabitation and Separation, Australia 1945 – 2000, Journal of Marriage and Family, Volume 71, Issue 2, pages 353–361, May 2009
There is also plenty of research comparing the longevity of married and cohabiting relationships, most of which reinforces the complexity of the subject matter—a de facto relationship is sometimes an alternative to marriage, but sometimes a precursor to marriage, even a 'trial' marriage. Further, these choices may attract people with differing characteristics, which makes a straightforward comparison of outcomes difficult.
Dale Bloom
Analyst
Genevieve Heard
I can’t remember any academic in Australia ever stating the values of marriage, while the data indicates it is generally superior to any other relationship type.
Of interest is some research in the US, where “Marriage has become a luxury good,” according to Frank Furstenberg, a sociologist at the University of Pennsylvania.
The reason: “Researchers have consistently found that children born outside marriage face elevated risks of falling into poverty, failing in school or…
Read moreGenevieve Heard
Research fellow, Centre for Population and Urban Research at Monash University
You are right, Dale Bloom. Australian sociologists in general aim to conduct value-free research, and to avoid judgements about the 'superiority' of one relationship type over another.
I am very familiar with Furstenberg's work, and have attempted to conduct similar analyses in the Australian context: see Heard, 2011, 'Socioeconomic marriage differentials in Australia and New Zealand' Population and Development Review, 37(1):125-160.
Byron Smith
PhD candidate in Christian Ethics at University of Edinburgh
You've changed the topic Dale. Whether or not what you say is true (and as a married person and a Christian, I happen to think marriage is a wonderful thing), your use of the Relationships Australia figure was misleading.
Dale Bloom
Analyst
Genevieve Heard
You article, “Socioeconomic Marriage Differentials in Australia and New Zealand” states “While marriage rates are relatively stable among better-educated men and women, they are rapidly declining among those with low educational attainment.”
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21735614
This has not been stated in this article on The Conversation, but it is a highly important fact, and should have been stated.
Stable marriages generally produce better outcomes for children…
Read moreDale Bloom
Analyst
I don't like ancedotal evidence, and try not to use it, but rely on broader data instead.
I think the survey clearly shows the value of marriage compared to other relationship types. The 2006 survey also has a graph of “Main reasons for getting married”.
http://www.relationships.org.au/what-we-do/research/australian-relationships-indicators/ra-rel-ind-2006-report/view
To signify a lifelong commitment – 68
Read moreTo make a public commitment to each other – 63
Security for children – 62 etc…
Clare Hourigan
Associate Director, Planning & Performance Analysis
Dale,
While there may be research that shows strong correlations between marriage and outcomes for children, we must remember that correlation does not always mean causation.
These issues are highly complex. I do not believe it is the act of having a child outside of marriage that leads directly to poorer job and educational prospects for children. A marriage certificate within itself is unlikely to protect against that.
It's worth considering the extent to which socio-economic disadvantage…
Read moreGrant Kennett
logged in via Facebook
Dale,
You are grossly misrepresenting the data from that Relationships Australia survey.
The questions, 'What do you think are the main reasons why people get married nowadays?' and 'What do you think are the main reasons why people don't get married nowadays?' were asked of all respondents - not just those who chose or did not choose to marry respectively.
The majority (51%) of respondents to this survey did themselves indicate that they were married - and this group will inevitably…
Read moreDale Bloom
Analyst
Clare Hourigan, I think there is enough evidence to find direct correlation.
Marriages are longer lived than de facto relationships, and both husband and wife make a commitment to each other (publicly formalised by the marriage ceremony), and the husband and wife are more likely to pool their resources.
Such families are more likely to save, and have the funds to get a higher level of education for their children, and their children are more likely to achieve upward social mobility.
Those…
Read moreClare Hourigan
Associate Director, Planning & Performance Analysis
Dale,
A direct correlation still does not automatically equate causation. Even when we find the strongest relationships in statistical analysis we have to always investigate the impact that other factors might be playing. This is a little bit silly but it's the sort of example you find in undergrad research text books - It's likely that if you looked at the correlation between sales of winter coats and the incidence of colds and flus you'd find quite a strong correlation but that doesn't mean that winter coats cause colds.
Are you able to point me to the research that shows that married couples are more likely to save than defacto couples that also controls for factors like disposable income levels, educational background, financial literarcy etc?
Grant Kennett
logged in via Facebook
To apply the editorial standards of Wikipedia to your post:
Marriages are longer lived than de facto relationships [citation needed], and both husband and wife make a commitment to each other (publicly formalised by the marriage ceremony), and the husband and wife are more likely to pool their resources [citation needed].
Such families are more likely to save [citation needed], and have the funds to get a higher level of education for their children [citation needed], and their children are…
Read moreDale Bloom
Analyst
Clare Hourigan
Who knows what occurs in Australian social science research, but I think the situation in the US is quite telling.
“About 92 percent of college-educated women are married when they give birth, compared with 62 percent of women with some post-secondary schooling and 43 percent of women with a high school diploma or less””
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/18/us/for-women-under-30-most-births-occur-outside-marriage.html?pagewanted=all
Education in the US is quite expensive, and the richer portion of the population tends to get the best education, and eventually the higher paid jobs.
That fact that so many “college-educated women are married when they give birth” does significantly indicate that they see the best outcomes for their children as being directly linked to marriage.
Clare Hourigan
Associate Director, Planning & Performance Analysis
Dale,
To test your theory properly what you would need to do is compare the outcomes for children born to the 92% of college educated mothers who are married and compare those to the children born outside marriage to the other 8% of college educated women. You'd also apply this to the other groups of women. Then you would be able to tease out the impact of marrage vs the impact of educational background.
Dale Bloom
Analyst
Clare Hourigan
Still attempting to find flaws in the system of marriage are we?
The social welfare system in the US is much less generous than that in Australia, (because the US economy is so bankrupt), and I don’t think the 92 percent of college-educated women who are married when they give birth have somwhow got it wrong.
Dale Bloom
Analyst
Grant Kennett
Perhaps you prefer data from the HILDA survey with 11,000 respondents. I personally prefer data from the HILDA survey, as it is semi-reliable for social science.
34% of men and 40% of women strongly disagreed that “Marriage was an outdated institution” and 34% of men and 32% of women disagreed somewhat.
So about 70% of men and women were in support of marriage.
http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/downloads/hilda/Bibliography/Other_Publications/Qu_Weston_Attitudes_towards_Marriage_and_Cohabitation.pdf
It is good to see so many men and women rejecting feminist propaganda that marriage is oppressive. Ironically, so many feminists seem to support same-sex marriage, but have little to say that is positive about heterosexual marriage.
http://www.now.org/issues/lgbi/marr-rep.html
Perhaps this is simply a part of the anti-heterosexuality of feminism.