Climate change and the soothing message of luke-warmism

We are familiar with the tactics, arguments, and personnel of the denial industry. Yet there is a perhaps more insidious and influential line of argument that is preventing the world from responding to the warnings of climate science. “Luke-warmists” may be defined as those who appear to accept the…

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Relax and have a drink, old chap; the planet has managed to look after itself so far without any fuss. Flickr/cyclonebill

We are familiar with the tactics, arguments, and personnel of the denial industry. Yet there is a perhaps more insidious and influential line of argument that is preventing the world from responding to the warnings of climate science.

“Luke-warmists” may be defined as those who appear to accept the body of climate science but interpret it in a way that is least threatening: emphasising uncertainties, playing down dangers, and advocating a slow and cautious response.

They are politically conservative and anxious about the threat to the social structure posed by the implications of climate science. Their “pragmatic” approach is therefore alluring to political leaders looking for a justification for policy minimalism.

Among the notable US luke-warmists are Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger of the Breakthrough Institute. They have been accused of misrepresenting data on the energy savings of investment in energy efficiency and have criticized almost every proposed measure to reduce America’s greenhouse gas emissions. Their Institute has allied itself with anti-climate science organizations such as the American Enterprise Institute.

Another prominent luke-warmist is Roger Pielke Jr, a scientist who was bracketed by Foreign Policy journal with well-known deniers such as Richard Lindzen and Christopher Monckton in its guide to climate sceptics.

Daniel Sarewitz has a track record of attacking climate science, accusing it of mixing politics and values with factual analysis. In the UK, Mike Hulme, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia, has branched out with a peculiar and incoherent argument about science being based on values and ideology.

The effect of luke-warmers’ contributions has been to sow doubt in the public mind about the credibility of the scientific warnings and the need to respond, just as Exxon-funded think tanks have.

Perhaps the pre-eminent luke-warmist is the Danish economist Bjorn Lomborg, who gained notoriety because his claim to be an environmentalist who had seen the light made him a poster boy of the conservative media. (That he was young, gay and Scandinavian only added to his value as a defector.) Nowadays Lomborg does not reject the principal conclusions of climate science but works assiduously to water down their implications and to boost “sensible” and cautious economic solutions that would allow continued exploitation of fossil fuels. In short he favours adapting to any change in the climate rather than trying to prevent it.

Hip and luke-warm: Bjorn Lomborg. Flickr/Mat McDermott

Although more high-brow and nuanced than literal deniers, the lines of argument of luke-warmists are remarkably similar. In 2010 several leading luke-warmists—including Nordhaus, Schellenberger, Pielke, Sarewitz, Hulme, and Oxford University anthropologist Steve Rayner—came together at Hartwell House in Buckinghamshire, UK, to write a paper advocating a “new direction for climate policy”.

The Hartwell paper claims to present a “radical” alternative to the failed UN process, although why the authors felt it necessary to describe a slow, cautious and conservative approach to climate policy as “radical” is a puzzle.

The paper begins by repeating allegations that the “Climategate” emails suggest that climate scientists cannot be trusted. The authors drew this conclusion before the string of official inquiries that vindicated the science and exonerated the scientists. Others, noting the emails had been selectively released just before the Copenhagen conference, smelt a rat and reserved judgement.

The Hartwell authors seem to have fallen for the Climategate spin because they wanted it to be true. They were also taken in by the campaign in the Murdoch press to undermine the IPCC by accepting uncritically alleged errors in its reports. Errors in IPCC reports, they opined, are proof of the need to “restore trust in expert organizations” even though none of the claimed errors, manufactured by deniers in all but one case, dented the body of knowledge.

Following the deniers’ lead, the Hartwell authors emphasize the “inherent unknowability” and “systematic doubt” in the body of scientific knowledge. They express misgivings about the desirability of investments in renewable energy, referring to their “chilling history” and “serious financial and social consequences”, a theme pursued by the Breakthrough Institute and more recently taken up by Tea Party Republicans.

Hartwell House, a lovely setting for “a relaxed and amused frame of mind” about the global climate. Flickr/Mick Baker(rooster)

Climate tranquilizer

The purpose of the Hartwell report is to administer a bromide to the climate policy debate, a kind of sedative to slow the world down, dispensed at a time when those with most scientific expertise are saying the evidence calls for urgent action.

While climate research rings the alarm bells ever more loudly, the Hartwell authors argue the “best line of approach” to global warming would be to adopt the design principle for English country gardens developed by Lancelot “Capability” Brown. They express their approach to climate policy this way:

After allowing the visitor a glimpse of his destination, the driveway would veer away to pass circuitously and delightfully through woodland vistas, through broad meadows with carefully staged aperçus of waterfalls and temples, across imposing bridges spanning dammed streams and lakes, before delivering the visitor in a relaxed and amused frame of mind, unexpectedly, right in front of the house.

What, one wonders, would a sweating Bangladeshi rice farmer facing a sea-level rise in the Ganges delta make of such complacency, penned by 12 white men sitting comfortably in an English country house? Perhaps it was the port that put them in “a relaxed and amused frame of mind”.

To be accurate, I should say “twelve white men plus one woman and one Japanese man”. The last is from the Japanese Iron and Steel Federation which, along with the Japanese Automobile Manufacturers Association, helped to finance the retreat. The only woman, Canadian economist Isabel Galiana, is a favourite of Bjorn Lomborg.

Instead of the “failed” policies of the past, the Hartwell authors argue for a series of policies aimed at social benefits other than reducing carbon emissions, because tackling the problem directly would “injure economic growth, which we think … is politically impossible with informed democratic consent”.

Here we get to the conservative heart of the luke-warmist position. For them the prevailing economic system is sacred, and any change must work around it. “Growth is sacrosanct” is another rendering of President George H.W. Bush’s celebrated declaration at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit: “The American way of life is not negotiable.”

Invoking the conservatism of the voting public is no more than a projection of the Hartwell authors’ own predilections, for informed citizens have frequently consented to policies that “injure economic growth”. A moment’s thought reveals a legion of them, even if the changes were fiercely resisted by business interests and their intellectual apologists.

The 40-hour week, the abolition of child labour, vehicle pollution laws, trade barriers erected for ethical reasons, bans on uranium exports, investment restrictions on odious regimes, and caps on carbon emissions in Europe—all policies that reduced economic growth yet received informed democratic consent.

The more one reads the more the Hartwell political analysis appears to be conservative prejudice dressed up as historical fact. The paper purports to be a social analysis, yet nowhere in its discussion of the difficulty of implementing carbon abatement policies is the influence of the fossil fuel lobby mentioned. In Hartwell House power is invisible.

To exclude the most crucial force that has slowed action on climate change is quirky, until it dawns on us that the essential aim of the Hartwell paper is to defend the status quo from the destabilization due to a changing climate. Those who argue the case for a tranquil and circuitous response to global warming must somehow silence the clang of the tocsin being rung by the climate scientists, and that is what the Hartwell authors attempt with their “relax and smell the roses” approach.

When fossil-fuel funded think tanks set out in the 1990s to sow doubt about climate science their assumed audience was the great unwashed. They could not have hoped to deceive a room full of intellectuals such as those gathered at Hartwell House. No wonder the Hartwell paper has been greeted warmly on climate denier websites.

One last element of the Hartwell group’s defence of the prevailing order is accidentally revealing. They reject the framing of the climate debate around the notion of “human sinfulness”. Although advanced as a criticism of environmentalism, it actually reveals their own reluctance to concede that climate change is a moral problem embedded in the institutions and everyday behaviours of the established system.

To agree with environmental critics that our social and economic system—its power structure, its inherent goals, the forms of behaviour it endorses—could so damage the Earth that our future, and that of the system itself, is now in peril would require them to discard their essential faith in the benevolence of the status quo.

Comments welcome below.

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  1. Michael Ashley

    Professor of Astrophysics at University of New South Wales

    Excellent discussion Clive!

    I note that the Hartwell Paper, according to the LSE website, was allegedly the result of "three months' intensive work by a group of 14 authors".

    If you were choosing 14 people to consider humanity's response to climate change, you would think that you would include at least one person with a clue.

    The end result of the gab-fest was that they were able to "reframe the climate issue around matters of human dignity". What a joke.

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    1. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Michael Ashley

      Hamilton's rejection of uncertainty, inherent in all good science, marks another step on his quest to overturn centuries of enlightenment.The only joke being that so many here have decided to join him down that sorry path. Quite sad really.

      By the way Michael, do you have a skirt to match those pom poms?

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    2. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Please keep posting in this style, Marc - there are few things as revealing as your splenetic little spits.

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    3. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      "Hamilton's rejection of uncertainty"

      What a shameless hypocrite. Hendrickx is certain we can keep burning carbon. Not much uncertainty there.

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    4. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Oh, so you think we should stop taking the risk from burning more carbon. Nothing more to discuss then.

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    5. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      LOL

      Hendrickx claim on this thread https://theconversation.edu.au/rich-nations-should-do-more-on-climate-say-chinese-8417

      "Estimates of climate sensitivity from credible sources suggest that 2 degrees is all we are likely to get"

      Source (when pressed) ."Schmittner, N.M. Urban, J.D. Shakun, N.M. Mahowald, P.U. Clark, P.J. Bartlein, A.C. Mix, and A. Rosell-Mele, "Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum", Science, vol. 334, pp. 1385-1388, 2011…

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    6. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Oh so you DO think we should continue burning more carbon in spite of it being a risk-taking behavior. Everything is clear now. You're a risk-taker like most humans. This type of behavior is epitomized by Homer Simpson.

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  2. Ryan Meade

    logged in via Twitter

    Very good article, although I must pedantically point out that the 40-hour work week did not reduce economic output - it actually optimised the productivity of workers while allowing them greater leisure time in which to be consumers. It's a small point but coincidentally I was just reading this: http://www.igda.org/why-crunch-modes-doesnt-work-six-lessons

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  3. Blair Donaldson

    logged in via Twitter

    Bjorn Lomborg has more positions than the Kama Sutra

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  4. Adrian Tait

    Visiting Fellow, Centre for Psycho-Social Studies, UWE Bristol

    Hello Clive,

    A great expose, and very pertinent to the current UK political scene. Thanks for drawing it to our attention. The "soothing message" could even be regarded as medication for the schizophrenia in our current government, regarding the need to decarbonise the economy.

    I felt you might have added the abolition of slavery to your list of laws that have constrained economies, particularly as Polly Higgins highlights this parallel in her quest to eradicate ecocide.

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  5. Marc Hendrickx

    Geologist

    As a non scientist it is clear that Clive has no regard for science and the scientific method. You cannot divorce the results from the uncertainty and errors. You take the whole lot warts and all.

    Hamilton, his acolyte Ashley and the Kookites are anti-science personified.

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Here is Marc dealing with uncertainty. Marc's claim
      "Estimates of climate sensitivity from credible sources suggest that 2 degrees is all we are likely to get for 2x Atm CO2"
      https://theconversation.edu.au/rich-nations-should-do-more-on-climate-say-chinese-8417#comment_55869

      When pressed to support his claim he quoted two papers.
      The first, Schmitter et al. (2011) suggested "a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7–2.6 K 66% probability)."
      The second Forster, P. M. D. and Gregory, J. M. (2006) found "a 1.0–4.1-K range for the equilibrium warming due to a doubling of carbon dioxide"

      So for Marc uncertainty means always being able to take the lower figure.

      Give me Clive's regard for the scientific method over Marc's any day.

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    2. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Nice straw man Mike. About 2 degrees is near the middle of both estimates. And it does not gel with the climate catastrophe you are so fond of spruiking like a dodgy car salesman.

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    3. Ian Ashman

      Manager

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Mike, our poor old geotroll put his foot in his mouth with that one. And I see he is still digging the hole even deeper...

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    4. Ian Ashman

      Manager

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Towering intellect on display from the geotroll.

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    5. In reply to Greg Hooper

      Comment removed by moderator.

    6. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      'Good science' gives "near the middle" now? What about a range, error values etc? The papers you cited had them so really not hard to carry them across. Since we all know that, and know that you know that too, the use of a vague mid-range estimate on your part appears more like obfuscation.

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    7. Fred Pribac

      logged in via email @internode.on.net

      In reply to Ian Ashman

      Marc is quite a phenomenon - dedicated, ubiquitous, indefatigable and increasingly strident.

      When his arguments are shown to be fallacious he simply abandons the thread and moves onto another front. He attempts to cast doubt with shear volume of comment - credibility or evidence are not essential to this goal.

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    8. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Mr Hendrickx is so numerate he claims 2 is in the middle of a range of 1.7 to 2.6 and is in the middle of a range of 1 to 4.1???

      Tireless Repetitions Of Logical Lacunae of course

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    9. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Both papers put paid to your climate catastrophism. You can lead a Kookite to water but you can't make it think.

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    10. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Glad to see Mr Hendrickx now admits he was wrong on the facts in his previous statement

      No, wait, he hasn't, He just Gish gallaops on to an Ad Hom

      a typical Taciturn Response Of Limited Lucidity

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    11. Blair Donaldson

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Kookite? Is that some type of exotic mineral found between the ears of climate change denialists?

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    12. Fred Pribac

      logged in via email @internode.on.net

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Marc you have out-gunned me in responses to this article alone by 5 to 1 - thank you for the comparison but I'm simply not in your blogging league! Can we get back to the comment that originally prompted me to challenge you:

      "As a non scientist it is clear that Clive has no regard for science and the scientific method." & "Hamilton, his acolyte Ashley and the Kookites are anti-science personified."

      Both of these guys have reputations for academic excellence - one in economics and ethics and the other in physics and astronomy.

      Can you substantiate your claims?

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    13. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Fred Pribac

      Mate you have done it for me ...as you indicate neither have any expertise in climatology. Hamilton's rejection of uncertainty shows a complete disregard for the scientific method. Ashley's cheerleading of this puts him in the same anti-science camp.

      As to those who take their science after its passed through the dodgy bowels of the SS website, I think the term "Kookite" is most apt.

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    14. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Mr Hendrickx is on record as completely dismissing uncertainty when it suits him by deliberately mis-quoting a figure from two papers to which he linked.

      He claims they say the likely figure is "not more than 2 degrees" when the quoted a range of 1.7 to 2.6 and 1 to 4.1

      Pot calling the kettle black?

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    15. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      I'm afraid you have misinterpreted my comments, and you continue to misrepresent them. What is clear from climate sensitivity studies is that high end temperature scenarios are increasingly assigned lower probabilities. This reflected in the numbers above.

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    16. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Seems Mark you are unable to understand basic english expression. What part of the the word "about" don't you understand?

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    17. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Once again - why be vague and use about when we know you are easily clever enough to calculate an appropriate value and range estimates? Or better yet just present the data ranges as given in the papers. Using an incorrect rounded figure does not help your arguement.

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    18. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      The paper you initially quoted, Schmittner et al from 2012 gives a figure of 2.3K and uncertainty of (1.7–2.6 K 66% probability). But it is based on a Last Glacial Maximum to interglacial estimate of just 2.6°C. So if this paper is correct, then even your claim of 2°C max warming means substantial climatic changes.

      This was made clear by the author Schmittner
      "Very small changes in temperature cause huge changes in certain regions, so even if we get a smaller temperature rise than we expected…

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    19. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Once again Mark feeds the results of peer reviewed science through the Kookite filter and a mush of misrepresentation arrives at the other end.

      For those interested in making up their own minds here's a link to an interesting recent discussion of climate sensitivity on Judy Curry's site: Climate Etc. This has links and some comments on the two papers commented on above and quite a few more. The end of this analysis suggests that the IPCC have over kooked climate sensitivity.

      Values over 4 degrees a now considered highly unlikely.

      http://judithcurry.com/2012/07/22/what-climate-sensitivity-says-about-the-ipcc-assessment-process/

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    20. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      I salute you Mr HendrickX (Sung to the tune "All along the Blog Tower)

      46 Red ticks must be some sort of record.

      Gerard Dean
      Glen Iris

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    21. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      We'll crack that half century yet, there's got to be a few more Chardy sippers out there.

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    22. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      I'm Mark, he's Mike :) Though Mark and Mike agree on many things

      The direct results of the papers you quote (and your false claims based on them) are here

      Hendrickx claim on this thread https://theconversation.edu.au/rich-nations-should-do-more-on-climate-say-chinese-8417

      "Estimates of climate sensitivity from credible sources suggest that 2 degrees is all we are likely to get"

      Source (when pressed) ."Schmittner, N.M. Urban, J.D. Shakun, N.M. Mahowald, P.U. Clark, P.J. Bartlein, A.C…

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    23. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      So now we know that 3 deg C/CO2 doubling central estimate causes catastrophe and 2.3 deg C/CO2 doubling central estimate is hardly significant. Who said Hendrickx was useless?

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    24. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      That midpoint between 1 and 4.1 again? Over 3? Or about 2?
      Here's an interesting report that makes a mockery of your arguments above...

      http://judithcurry.com/2011/07/05/the-ipccs-alteration-of-forster-gregorys-model-independent-climate-sensitivity-results/#more-3924

      The elevator version is that the IPCC misrepresented the study. Forster & Gregory found that their data gave a central estimate for Y of 2.3 ± 1.4 per °C, with a 95% confidence range.

      "The transformation effected by the IPCC…

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    25. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      This link might also be of interest, seems I have also overestimated.

      http://judithcurry.com/2012/06/25/questioning-the-forest-et-al-2006-sensitivity-study/#more-8917

      " If I am right, then correct processing of the data used in Forest 2006 would lead to the conclusion that equilibrium climate sensitivity (to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere) is close to 1°C, not 3°C, implying that likely future warming has been grossly overestimated by the IPCC."

      Things that make you go Hmmmm.

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    26. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      Chris O'Neill: "Who said Hendrickx was useless?" The court jester and village idiot exist for good reasons. ;)

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    27. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Fred Pribac

      Fred Pribac: "Marc you have out-gunned me in responses to this article alone by 5 to 1 ...". On the evidence of the resources he commits to the task, Marc is being handsomely paid to troll here. I wonder who's doing the paying?

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    28. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Marc Hendrickx: "... neither have any expertise in climatology." A geologist, of course, is undeniably expert in that subject. :)

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    29. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      In addition to being imbecilic Larry, Curly and Moe are endearing and funny.

      A one out of three match is the best available here

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    30. Shirley Birney

      retiree

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Oh I see now Marc. The untrained eye was to assume that Rud Istvan’s paper you provided was written by a climate scientist with some standing. In fact it was written by an entrepreneur who holds a BA from Harvard College, a JD from Harvard Law School, and a MBA from Harvard Business School and who has 11 issued plus 13 pending US patents.

      Istvan was also previously General Manager of Future Businesses and Director of the Corporate Strategy Offices for Motorola. Before joining Motorola he was a senior partner of BCG.

      Now I understand why Curry fiddled with the contents of Istvan's paper. Well done Marc, Curry and Watts. I think we’ve just hit a new low in climate change dupes.

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    31. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Fifty Four Red Ticks to Mr Hendrickx

      Seriously Mr Hendrickx, I have a problem that you might be able to help me with.

      I saw that one of Professor Hamilton's special areas of interest is 'the ethics of climate change" So, naturally I assumed he would jump at the chance to answer an ethical dilemma that had been troubling me for some time. It goes like this:

      How does a person who fervently believes in the need to live sustainably on this planet, justify their choice to fly when they know…

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    32. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      The good professor is not able to answer questions at this time as he is currently on route to (insert exotic conference location), he will respond to your query when he returns. Since such conferences tend to blend into one another, unfortunately this might take some time.

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  6. John Gibbons

    logged in via Twitter

    Well argued piece. In military parlance, the deniers are engaged in a 'fighting retreat'. As one ridiculous position after another gets overwhelmed, they simply step back, re-frame the issue and continue with a more subtle variant of Flat Earthism. There's an old saying, 'whatever you do, do nothing', that applies well to the Luke Warmists. Lomborg in particular has been a godsend to the Koch Brothers et al, and of course their legions of echo-chamber mates.

    All this is increasingly taking on the characteristics of a suicide cult. These guys may be many things, but they're not entirely stupid, so they have to know that Earth systems are teetering on the edge, and that we're edging the entire biosphere ever closer to a catastrophic phase-shift that, make no mistake, will fall as hard upon the deniers' heads as everyone else.

    You need to be actually quite mad to understand that reality on the one hand, and actively lobby to prevent it coming to pass, on the other.

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    1. Richard Koser

      Dude

      In reply to John Gibbons

      Not mad, just human. As Upton SInclair noted a century ago: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."
      I guess optimism is a near-universal human trait: depressives tend to weed themselves out of the gene pool.

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    2. Bruce Moon

      Bystander!

      In reply to John Gibbons

      @ John

      Yours is about the most sensible reply on this matter I've seen for some time.

      I too have long noted (and lamented) the polarised nature of discussion on this topic.

      You show, through your depiction of military tactics, that the subject is no longer about facts but about capturing the battleground.

      I gained an Environmental Science degree eons ago, and from a 'science' perspective, I am disenchanted with the stance taken by the likes of Clive Hamilton. For them, it's not about…

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    3. David Arthur

      n/a

      In reply to Bruce Moon

      Environmental science, eh? Did it have an atmospheric physics component?

      Observation 1. Sun irradiates earth with short-wave energy.

      Observation 2. Earth re-radiates long-wave energy.

      Observation 3. Greenhouse gases retard transmission of long-wave energy, not short-wave energy.

      Observation 4. Arctic sea ice is melting, so that summertime sunlight is being absorped in exposed ocean rather than reflected off ice.

      Observation 5. Greenland and Antarctic ice is melting, increasing the…

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    4. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Bruce Moon

      Bruce,

      "Personally, both sides have valid arguments. Given this, the Precautionary Principle means we should act until the argument is (finally) decided"

      From a policy perspective that logic is flawed (and I am assuming you meant to say "not act" above).

      If seeking to establish a policy response where there is some degree of uncertainty there is a need to determine the risk of following any given policy option, including the option of "do nothing".

      Given that any approach to climate change…

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    5. trevor prowse

      retired farmer

      In reply to John Gibbons

      I notice the author is engaged in public ethics ,so I pose this question ----I recently discovered data that looked like there had been no air temperatures at the 14 tidal stations situated around Australia. I asked the BOM to produce a trend line to see if my inclination was correct. They refused on two grounds---that the 20 years was too short a period and that the air temperature equipment was not up to the climate change standard.

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    6. trevor prowse

      retired farmer

      In reply to trevor prowse

      continued from above- (NO RISE IN TEMPERATURE TREND left out in comment) ----You would have thought that equipment installed in 1991 would be of a standard to record temperatures accurately.Yet the climate commission used the 20 years of data of the sea levels to scare the population into accepting the carbon tax legislation .I realise that the scientists who edited the climate commissions paper were not the same people who refused to graph the data that showed that the air temperature trend had not risen for 20 years. It seems that it is alright to quote sea level rise over 20 years , but refuse to make a trend line of the air temperature when it is politically not time to do so. Was it ethical to withold data in this manner ?

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    7. trevor prowse

      retired farmer

      In reply to David Boxall

      Taxpayers expect their research dollars to be used in a acceptable fashion and when the data shows that 20 years of air temperature shows no rising trend , it should be scientifically honest to include those results in the public domain. When the same tidal stations are used to promote increased sea level rise in a government paid document and the period of data was not suitable for temperatures , but suitable for government employed scientists ,one has to doubt the intentions of the authors

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  7. Marc Hendrickx

    Geologist

    Of great concern is that the author of this article, someone who has advocated a suspension of democracy and above demonstrates a complete mis-understanding of the role of uncertainty in science, is on the Government's Climate Change Authority.

    That Hamilton's misrepresentation is heralded as gospel by so many cheerleaders above, a sure sign that many in academia have abandoned rationalism in deference to a new fundamentalism. Seems that cargo cult, so well described by Richard Feynman, is alive and kicking here at The Con.

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    1. Richard Koser

      Dude

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Good one. 'Cargo cult' was the name given to the belief that Pacific Islanders had about material goods dropping from the sky, a result of WW2 air-drops. Seems to me that describes the belief system of those who insist that perpetual growth is possible in a finite system. To paraphrase Kenneth Boulding, you must be a fool or an economist.
      As for uncertainty in science, nothing is proven. But until we come up with a better theory, e=mc2 and increasing co2 in the atmosphere leads to higher temperatures. If you've got a better theory, let's hear it.

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    2. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Richard Koser

      No one is denying that co2 will lead to higher temperatures. The question is how high? At This stage observations are at the lower end of projections. The end that justifies a measured response, rather than the mass panic preferred by Hamilton and his ilk.

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    3. Greg Staib

      Research Intern at CSIRO

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Actually you will find that indeed people are denying that CO2 leads to higher temperature. The very same crowd that embrace this Hartwell paper are the very same people who promote anything that takes the human involvement out of the equation e.g the WUWT blog

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    4. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Richard Koser

      okay an increase in co2 does lead to an increase in temp - but the effect is logarithmic. It is swamped by other factors like the orbit patterns and the sun an negative feedbacks. In the absence of positive feedback the cumulative effect of man's emission cannot be measured, it is what scientists call negligible. Here endeth the lesson.

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    5. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Greg Staib

      Based on your comments its clear Glen that you have not read widely enough. This level of ignorance is quite sad for someone employed by CSIRO.

      Before you further defame and misrepresent the authors of the Hartwell paper perhaps you should bother to read it.

      While you are at it suggest also putting The Climate Fix on your bedside table.

      http://theclimatefix.com

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    6. Blair Donaldson

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Where exactly was Hamilton demanding mass panic? How about turning down the level of emotive nonsense and sticking with the facts?

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    7. Greg Staib

      Research Intern at CSIRO

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Based on your comment it appears you don't know who you are addressing, My name is Greg not Glen

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    8. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Greg Staib

      My apologies it was addressed to you, Greg Staib, research intern at CSIRO. Clear enough for you?

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    9. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Which 'scientists' would that be Trevor? Obviously the ones who have realised that the Royal Society, the US National Academy of Science, the australian Academy, CSIRO, BoM, etc. must be either deluded or incompetent. Glad we have you to save us from them.

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    10. Grant Burfield

      Dr

      In reply to Richard Koser

      Your physics in unimpressive Richard Koser. E for a particle of rest mass m and velocity v is

      mc^2(1-v^2/c^2)^-1/2 + U

      Let's hope your understanding of radiative physics is better.

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    11. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Felix MacNeill

      um yes that group you mentioned are either very smart and know they are fibbing, very smart and so wrapped up in the mass delusion they actually believe the pseudoscience of global warming has merit or very stupid and cannot see the wood for the tree. I fancy the centroid - they are blinded by the current paradigm - it's not just I who say this. Their employment, future prospects, kid's schol fees rely on supporting the current dogma not matter how convoluted the argument gets. Hey I don't blame em really.

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    12. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      "James Hansen recalls meeting Lindzen whilst testifying before the Vice President's Climate Task Force: "I considered asking Lindzen if he still believed there was no connection between smoking and lung cancer. He had been a witness for tobacco companies decades earlier, questioning the reliability of statistical connections between smoking and health problems. But I decided that would be too confrontational. When I met him at a later conference, I did ask that question, and was surprised by his response: He began rattling off all the problems with the date relating smoking to helath problems, which was closely analagous to his views of climate data"

      http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Richard_S._Lindzen

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    13. Gary Murphy

      Independent Thinker

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      "In the absence of positive feedback the cumulative effect of man's emission cannot be measured"

      But there are positive feedbacks - very strong ones - that is what is so worrying.

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    14. Grant Burfield

      Dr

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Oh dear, ageism on the Conversation. Still it's better than being called a denier, which represents the supremum of your debating abilities.

      Sorry you couldn't understand the equation. I would have made it easier for you but this editor doesn't recognise LaTeX.

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    15. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Grant Burfield

      Grant. You do not need to be old to be irrelevant. Richard made some grammatical errors as well - I am surprised you missed them.

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    16. Grant Burfield

      Dr

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      I'm more interested in physics. Having read your tiresome but tachyon like responses over many threads, that's clearly a subject you have little knowledge of.

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    17. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Grant Burfield

      Grant - I have only read 3 of your comments and you still have not managed anything on topic. My first impression does not seem that far from the mark.

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    18. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Grant Burfield

      Ok Grant. You have returned some insults which I am happy to concede I probably deserve for a gratuitous comment. If you are interested in the physics, maybe you could start with regular commenter Berthold below who appears to be inventing his own.

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    19. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      "Here endeth the lesson."

      That should read, "here endeth the sermon".

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    20. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      "Their ... kid's schol fees"

      Maybe they don't waste money on private school fees.

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    21. Philip Dowling

      IT teacher

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      In my area, the public schools have tried aping the private schools, with smart school uniforms and school fees. Even school excursions cost enough for the kids to by chauffeured hummers.

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    22. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      oh that old chestnut - what has climate change got to do with lung cancer?

      Lindzen is an atmospheric pysicist not a medical researcher - same old story attack the man not the ball

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    23. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Gary Murphy

      Where are these feedbacks? you have seen them? you have evidence they exist?

      They are assumptions.

      A positve feedback would be like a car where the brake and accelerator pedals have been switched. So when you want to slow down you accelerate, when you what to go faster you hit the brake. Clearly this is an unsustainable situation.

      Do you think nature operates this way?

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    24. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      "Lindzen"

      Reminds me of the Internet access salesman who lied to my face and then when I proved he did, he moved right along and kept expecting me to believe him.

      Lindzen has no interest in the truth. He just argues for the sake of arguing. That's what he likes doing.

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    25. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      "Where are these feedbacks?"

      Denialists are profoundly ignorant of even the simplest and most obvious positive feedback which is increased water vapor with temperature. One of the great ironies of denialism is that they continually remind us that water vapor causes most of the greenhouse effect but they are completely unaware that the vast majority of that water vapor is there because of the initial warming by CO2. i.e. they completely ignore that water vapor is a feedback.

      "So when you want to slow down you accelerate, when you what to go faster you hit the brake. Clearly this is an unsustainable situation."

      Another standard denialist misrepresentation of the facts. He presents an example with a feedback ratio of more than 100% when climate feedback is less than 100%.

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  8. James Jenkin

    EFL Teacher Trainer

    Clive suggests 'luke-warmists may be defined as those who appear to accept the body of climate science but interpret it in a way that is least threatening: emphasising uncertainties, playing down dangers, and advocating a slow and cautious response'.

    Why, in any area of government policy, is that a bad thing? It's not necessarily anything to do with being 'politically conservative' or acting in self interest. It's a matter of making sure intervention is effective, and unintended consequences are avoided. Just asserting 'X is a huge problem so we have to do Y now' is not a sound basis for any government action.

    I'd respect Clive if he seriously looked at the range of possible responses to climate change, and evaluated them according to explicit criteria.

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    1. James Jenkin

      EFL Teacher Trainer

      In reply to James Jenkin

      Thanks for the ratings - I didn't realise it was so controversial! Would love comments.. I'm genuinely interested to know what people think.

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    2. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to James Jenkin

      I for one agree, James. But that is not going to help your ratings. These derived from the reptilian part of the brain.

      A measured response involves dealing with the variability and extremes we are aware of by mitigating against them with practical measures such as dams, levees etc. Sources of energy a long term issue and best addressed by a shift to nuclear as older inefficient plants reach the end of their economic lives.

      Part of Clive's problem stems from his hatred of humanity and disregard for human achievement.

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    3. Philip Dowling

      IT teacher

      In reply to James Jenkin

      James,
      I would be disappointed if i were you. If you can't score over 30 reds then you have been either drinking too much cappuccino or eating too many salads or riding a bike or haven't had a vasectomy or been drinking too much chardonnay.

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    4. In reply to Ian Ashman

      Comment removed by moderator.

    5. Blair Donaldson

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to James Jenkin

      James, while I agree there is nothing wrong with making sure any intervention is effective, there comes a point where you act or you don't, having a leg each side of the fence as our current and previous federal governments have/are doing does nothing except exacerbate confusion.

      We know renewables reduce the demand on fossil fuels, we know energy efficiency also helps reduce demand. We know there is much more we could do to make housing, transport and many appliances energy-efficient yet governments at all levels are doing little more than treading water waiting for somebody to make the move.

      It's not as though the evidence for climate change and the need to do something suddenly became apparent last month.

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    6. David Arthur

      n/a

      In reply to James Jenkin

      Thanks James for the invitation.

      On the one hand, the situation is much more dire than is popularly realised. This is because, so long as atmospheric CO2 remains above 350 ppm, we are risking warming continuing to the point where natural greenhouse gas stores (methane clathrates, methane-containing frozen permafrost, seawater cold enough to dissolve CO2) are sufficiently destabilised as to cause huge natural emissions of greenhouse gases. Rapid warming ensues, as occurred at the onset of every…

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    7. Philip Dowling

      IT teacher

      In reply to Philip Dowling

      OK, so I suppose that it was the chardonnay that copped all the reds. So what are they drinking in the Rose, Shamrock and Thistle this year?

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    8. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to James Jenkin

      James Jenkin: "It's a matter of making sure intervention is effective, and unintended consequences are avoided." Exactly what "unintended consequences" so terrify you?
      The worst case that scares me is the world unfit for life, expounded by Carl Sagan and Stephen Hawking. What alternative scenario is so bad that it justifies taking that risk? Where is that alternative scenario expounded (by similarly credible proponents)?

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  9. Trevor Ellice

    Geologist

    I swear this site has some madness on it. So now the luke warmers are to be demonised. I actually thought they where quite rational as promoting a cost benefit approach to the issue. As opposed to the 'consensus' of the reverse Cassandras who author articles of this site of mass hysteria - spend billions, change our way of life, on a non-issue.
    I really does take one's breath away - but I guess thats good less co2 you see.
    And the poor Bangladeshi - well really he's to busy trying to feed his family than worry about all this climate crap - and if the warmists have their way he will be denied the oportunity to get his family out of poverty.

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    1. Philip Dowling

      IT teacher

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Trevor, I am disappointed with your lack of belief.
      Any hint of anything apart from full obeisance to the religion's fundamental beliefs will bring forth the ire of the priests' of climate change.
      Complete excommunication will follow. All government grants will be terminated. All academic tenure will be denied. All submissions to peer review journals will be shredded.
      Doctrinal purity must be preserved.

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    2. Richard Koser

      Dude

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Funnily enough, Bangladesh is taking climate change seriously, and they're adapting because we won't mitigate. But if things do go from bad to worse, are we going to invite 150 million Bangladeshis to Australia where they can enjoy a higher standard of life?

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    3. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Philip Dowling

      I'm still waiting to be carted of to the ministry of truth - maybe I will catch up with Winston

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    4. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      LOL - not as much irony as the menion of "accuracy" or "evidence" in relation to ANY post by Mr Hendrickx

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    5. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Felix MacNeill

      hey it's not paranoia when they are actualy out to get you - you lot just wish us pesky skeptics would just go away don't you

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    6. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      No Trevor - we just wish you'd be skeptical in its true sense rather than the pseudo-skepticism you and others (like Mr Hendickx) practice

      Here is what Lawrence Torcello has to say about true skepticism. Not the pesudo skepicism and making a virtue out of doubt that you practice.
      (Lawrence Torcello is a prominent ethicist and holder of the Ezra A Hale Chair in Applied Ethics at the Rochester Institute of Technology in New York)
      Torcello is particularly concerned with what he amusingly — and…

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    7. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      "hey it's not paranoia when they are actualy out to get you"

      Don't answer the door Trevor.

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    8. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      "the pseudo-skepticism you and others (like Mr Hendickx) practice"

      Hendrickx is a non-skeptic. He'll believe anything that says climate sensitivity is low such as "If I am right, then correct processing of the data used in Forest 2006 would lead to the conclusion that equilibrium climate sensitivity (to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere) is close to 1°C"

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    9. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      Chris, perhaps you can prove Nic Lewis wrong.
      Sorry forgot, you wouldn't know where to start.

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    10. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Marc Hendrickx: "... perhaps you can prove Nic Lewis ...".
      For a good indication of Lewis' credibility, just Google:
      "Nic Lewis" climate
      He's on the far lunatic fringe of climate science denial.

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  10. Mark Duffett

    logged in via Twitter

    What a shallow misrepresentation this is. Hamilton is about as far from a climate scientist as it's possible to get and still be in a university. So his attack is reduced to "has been bracketed by Foreign Policy journal (!) with well-known deniers such as Richard Lindzen and Christopher Monckton". Climate what? Sure as hell isn't anything to do with climate science.

    Rather than dubious attempts at guilt by association, what does Pielke jr. actually say? "Climate change is real, humans have…

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    1. Richard Koser

      Dude

      In reply to Mark Duffett

      And this is a bizarre representation of what's actually possible. We don't need 'regulation' to achieve 'revolutionary changes to our global energy system'. Well, not more regulation anyway. Fewer subsidies to coal, oil and gas companies would be a good start. If we got rid of those, we wouldn't need subsidies for wind, solar, wave, geo-thermal. Take a look at energy demand curves over the last few years: even in Australia, demand has gone down thanks to rooftop solar.
      Cleaning up a wind farm is a lot easier and cheaper than repairing the damage from a meltdown. Oh what, they don't happen? Humans have built about 560 nuclear reactors, successfully decommissioned about 80 and six have gone ka-boom. That's a great track record. In contrast, most of Victoria is off-limits to wind power because someone's cow might get a nose-bleed but coal companies can pollute rivers under a 100 year deal signed in 1961.

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    2. David Arthur

      n/a

      In reply to Mark Duffett

      Hamilton may not be a climate scientist, but at least he has wisdom enough to pay heed to people who know what they are taking about.

      Can't say I'm in favour of huge public expenditure on this or that R&D in support of any form centralised power generation, be it nuclear of CCS. I'd much rather see governments give everyone tax cuts, in return for which they impose consumption taxes on fossil fuel (FFCT). They then increase the rate of the FFCT (with adjustment of all other tax rates around the FFCT) until fossil fuel use has been priced out of the economy to the extent required.

      By this time. people will have used their tax savings to invest in non-fossil fuel equipment and technology, which in itself drives demand for technological improvement via further R&D in this sector.

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    3. David Arthur

      n/a

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      I thought the sound of a meltdown might be a hiss and a fizz, followed by glug-glug-glug.

      There's a list of Top 5 Worst Nuclear Disasters at http://news.discovery.com/tech/top-five-nuclear-disasters.html.
      1. Chernobyl, Soviet Union 26 April 1986
      2. Kyshtym, Soviet Union 29 Sept 1957
      3. Windscale, UK 10 October 1957
      4. Three Mile Island, US 28 March 1979
      5. Tokaimura, Japan 30 Sept 1999

      Fukushima would be added to make a list of Top 6 Worst Nuclear Disasters, but I don't know where it would be placed in this list.

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    4. Mark Duffett

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Richard Koser

      And thus the mysterious, miraculous magic works again. Mention the comparatively minuscule casualties from nuclear power (never mind that it's demonstrated to be the safest form of power generation per TWh, bar none http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/), and suddenly climate change, that issue Hamilton says "could so damage the Earth that our future, and that of the system itself, is now in peril" becomes a second-order problem requiring something less than the massive application of every effective tool at our disposal.

      Who's a luke-warmist again?

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    5. Mark Duffett

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Richard Koser

      Oh, and sorry, but "if we got rid of (fossil fuel subsidies), we wouldn't need subsidies for wind, solar, wave, geo-thermal" is just dangerously wishful, innumerate rubbish.

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    6. James Sexton

      Network administrator

      In reply to David Arthur

      David, that's a great list! But, most of those didn't melt down. In fact, most of those didn't do anything but scare people.

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    7. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Marc Hendrickx: "... I think wind farms are more deadly." Good to see you've begun thinking.
      Where are the figures that support your belief? You'll need comparative human fatality figures for nuclear and wind. Even twitchers acknowledge that the bird death thing is a furphy.

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    8. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Richard Koser

      Richard Koser: "Fewer subsidies to coal, oil and gas companies would be a good start." Interesting thought, can you put a figure on the annual savings?

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  11. Philip Dowling

    IT teacher

    I am sure that students at CSU will be impressed by Clive Hamilton's erudition, given CSU's ATAR cutoffs.
    Well at least until they manage their way through the sandstone curtain.

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    1. Spiro Vlachos

      AL

      In reply to Philip Dowling

      I guess Ethics makes him an expert on everything.

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  12. Richard Koser

    Dude

    From a PR point of view, it's stage 3 of the Yes Minister argument.
    1) It's not happening
    2) We're not sure if it's happening
    3) It's happening but we can't do anything about it
    4) It's over now, so let's move on

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    1. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Richard Koser

      An apt quote from that great series:Series 2 Episode 2-Doing the Honours.

      "No one really understands the true nature of fawning servility until he sees an academic who has glimpsed the prospect of money or personal publicity."

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    2. Sean Lamb

      Science Denier

      In reply to Richard Koser

      5.) "Therefore take no thought, saying, What shall we eat? or, What shall we drink? or, Wherewithal shall we be clothed? (For after all these things do the Gentiles seek:) for your heavenly Father knoweth that ye have need of all these things. But seek ye first the kingdom of God, and his righteousness; and all these things shall be added unto you."

      So you see there is really nothing to worry about!

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    3. Ron Chinchen

      Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)

      In reply to Sean Lamb

      You can always rely on a proportion of people taking the 'tepid' approach aka fence sitting.

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    4. Sean Lamb

      Science Denier

      In reply to Ron Chinchen

      I would happily get excited about climate change if someone could produce a definite plan of what they expect the future energy production sector to look like.

      Rows and rows of windmills, thermal solar plants, geothermal, biofuels, carbon sequestration? Everyone has their pet scheme, but for every pet scheme someone suggests, there is always someone who comes along and says it is totally impractical.

      How long is just saying "carbon tax" going to suffice before we realize that if it reduces emissions at all (doubtful), it will only remove some low-hanging fruit and then just end up rationing solely on the basis of income.

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    5. Blair Donaldson

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Sean Lamb

      Sean, even if AGW didn't exist, there are still plenty of good reasons for migrating to clean energy. The side-effects of coalmining and the use of coal to produce electricity cause a great deal of community ill-health, detrimental environmental effects and excessive use of scarce resources like water and productive farming land.

      AGW is just another very important reason to switch over from polluting fossil fuels. In the long run it will also prove to be cheaper for consumers.

      Finally, while some people may have a preference for a particular form of clean energy, most would be happy to see all practical forms deployed.

      By the way, the only people who claim renewables are impractical are those with vested interests in the status quo, or have a philosophical reason for opposing reality. Climate change denialists are no different to creationists and anti-vaxers, science is an anathema to them.

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    6. Toby James

      retired physicist

      In reply to Blair Donaldson

      I wonder what the evidence for all this ill-health is. The mining and use of coal has been cleaned up decades ago.

      It hasn't yet been explained to this realist just how the breeze and sun beams are going to supply the energy currently produced by hydrocarbons.

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    7. Byron Smith

      PhD candidate in Christian Ethics at University of Edinburgh

      In reply to Toby James

      Evidence? That would be here:
      http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05890.x/full

      A Harvard Medical School study calculating the hidden health costs of coal at somewhere between $140b and $242b annually. When other costs are added in, total externalities from burning coal in the US (excluding climate change!) come to between 1/3 and 1/2 a trillion dollars annually.

      And that is in a country with a clean air act. The public health costs in China - which burns more coal than the US, EU and Japan combined and yet is way behind on pollution control - are astronomical.

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    8. Mark Chambers

      Business & Marketing Consultant

      In reply to Byron Smith

      Hi Byron,

      I can't even find your last comment (about -48 and still moving) on this ever increasingly long blog so I'm replying here. Maybe it's time to formalise this 'negative versus positive' obsession and call it the competition that it really is.

      Perhaps, as another contributor observed, team blue and team red ?? Easier than 'those who think they're climate scientists versus those who have issues with climate science'. I can't see that anyone is going to change anyone else's mind here anyway ... we may as well just score points :)

      Cheers. Mark C.

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    9. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Richard Koser

      Richard Koser: "4) It's over now, so let's move on". Unfortunately, when it's over, there's no guarantee that there'll be anyone left to move on:-
      Carl Sagan: "... Venus is an ominous reminder that in a world rather like the earth, things can go wrong. There is no guarantee that our planet will always be so hospitable."
      Stephen Hawking: "We don’t know where global warming will stop but the worst case scenario is that the earth will become like its sister planet Venus, with a temperature of 250 degrees C ..."
      None of those who wage war against climate science has ever been able to explain to me exactly what they fear. What scenario do they seek to avoid, that makes the risk to life on Earth worth taking? Who, of stature equivalent to Sagan and Hawking, has expounded that scenario?

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    10. Shirley Birney

      retiree

      In reply to Richard Koser

      I believe Lomborg has become the laughing stock of Denmark’s environment minister who is not saying "yes" to his demands. No doubt Lomborg’s drumming up business elsewhere since the Danish government has cut his Project Palooza funding by more than £1 million.

      Intriguing that vociferous pro-nuclear proponent, Barry Brook has joined Roger Pielke Jr as a Senior Fellow at Nordhaus’ and Shellenberger’s Breakthrough Institute.

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  13. Sundance

    logged in via Twitter

    The USA has reduced CO2 emissions 8.8% from 2006 to 2011 and is on track to acheive a 10.7% from 2006 by the end of 2012. We have done this without cap and trade, a carbon tax and in spite of the fact that new research shows that wind turbines are not lowering CO2 as much as we thought.

    http://www.anl.gov/articles/grid-realities-cancel-out-some-wind-power-s-carbon-savings

    In the mean time China is growing CO2 emissions by 1.4Gt/yr. each year which means that even if the USA went to 0 emissions…

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    1. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Sundance

      Sundance what's your data source for these claimed emissions reductions in the US please?

      http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/co2.html

      According to the USA EPA "CO2 emissions in the United States are projected to grow by about 1.5% between 2005 and 2020" and looking at the data from the EPA it's fairly clear recent reductions were largely associated with economic slowdown

      On the plus side US emissions per capita are slowly trending down BUT are around 3 x the emissions per…

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    2. Sundance

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec12_3.pdf

      Mark - There are 44Gt of CO2 equivalent GHGs being emitted by poor and developing countries around the world according the scientists in Durban who released this information and then were quickly censored by the IPCC. I find that those claiming moral and social injustices are deniers for never acknowledging such facts and I assume they deny such facts so that they don't have to face the illogic behind blaming only industrialized western…

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    3. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Sundance

      Good comment. Pielke Jnr in particular has done more in terms of suggesting practical solutions to what is essentially an energy problem (i agree) than the laughable Hamilton will ever be capable of.

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    4. Glenn Tamblyn

      Mechanical Engineer, Director

      In reply to Sundance

      Sundance

      If the figures for the US are truue, that great. However, my understanding is that there is Cap & Trade in the US. Not nationally, but there is a scheme operating among 8 states in the North East, and doesn't California also have its own scheme?

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    5. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Sundance

      Sundance - you say
      "There are 44Gt of CO2 equivalent GHGs being emitted by poor and developing countries around the world'
      and
      "...poor countries with a population explosions that contribute 44Gt/year of CO2 equivalent GHGs?

      Have you got a source for that. Your link does not support it. That figure is close to the entire world's emissions.

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    6. Gary Murphy

      Independent Thinker

      In reply to Sundance

      A tax on carbon intensive electricity generation makes renewable energy technologies more economically competitive.

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    7. Glenn Tamblyn

      Mechanical Engineer, Director

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Thanks for that Mike. When you think about the scale of what is involved, those numbers are huge for just a 12 month period. Interesting question; Is that new gass generation capacity coming on line, or are coal plants being converted to burn gas?

      Actually it is an endorsement of the potential for things like carbon taxes to bring about change. When the price is right, business moves fast.

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    8. Sundance

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Gary Murphy

      I don't see the USA implementing a carbon tax. Congress just passed an anti-Solyndra bill which if adopted is going to choke investment in alternative energy and if not adopted will certainly make scrutiny a political issue in which case it still chokes the process. Also EPA laws were already passed exempting gas as a low pollution energy source so there will be no taxing gas and with coal in serious decline and local a carbon tax would do little to lower CO2 and would be punitive on a state/local…

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  14. Gerard Dean

    Managing Director

    Professor Hamilton

    The threat posed by the 12 attendees at Hartwell House to your "... sweating Banglidshi rice farmer facing a sea-level rise in the Ganges delta" is minor compared to the ecological destruction caused by 50,000 pious environmentalists who used thousands of tonnes of JetA1 fuel and other nonrenewable resources to attend the Rio G20+ Sustainability Conference in Rio.

    Old mother earth must think we are crackers

    Gerard Dean
    Glen Iris

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  15. Gil Hardwick

    Anthropologist

    Here we go again, Clive. We already have the 'denier' label, now it's the 'luke-warmer' label.

    But you have yet to answer the standard academic rejoinder, So what?

    It is just as easy to label 'climate hysteric' on the other tail and achieve quite as much.

    And you still haven't begun to address our question, the concern of the common people, not on whether climate change is happening (OK, we have to trust you on that) but on how it will effect us.

    We would also like to know whether it will affect us differently from natural fluctuation. I mean, what more or less do we need to do than what we are already doing?

    Here we come to yet another label, 'climate fatalist', likely to argue, the planet's stuffed anyway.

    Endless doom and gloom, endless crap, endless labelling and divisiveness, induced helplessness.

    OK, that's the way you want it, what the heck?

    You're a big help, NOT.

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    1. Gary Murphy

      Independent Thinker

      In reply to Gil Hardwick

      How it will affect us:
      http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives-basic.htm

      "...what more or less do we need to do than what we are already doing?"
      Adaptation and Mitigation. Adaptation will happen (we don't really have any choice). Mitigation because we don't want the problem to get too much worse.

      In defence of Clive - he is a philosopher and he is writing about the philisophical shift in the debate.

      I imagine an anthropologist would be most interested in the anthropological implications of climate change. Think crop failures and water shortages.

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  16. Geoff Russell

    Computer Programmer, Author

    Clive, please, as Mark Duffett has implied, just because The Breakthrough institute is pro-nuclear, that doesn't make them luke-warmist. Not at all. It means they are backing the only technology with a demonstrated track record in scalability to simultaneously fight poverty and climate change. The Germans now get 20 TWh/yr from Solar after 12 years of a feed in tariff committing them to paying out $100 billion to rich Germans over the next 20 years while poor Germans are being disconnected at a…

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    1. Shirley Birney

      retiree

      In reply to Geoff Russell

      The nation’s global record of 104 useless nuclear reactors (most 40 years old) in 31 states saw the United States hit by freak storms, record breaking catastrophic heatwaves, prolonged drought, huge floods and out-of-control bushfires that have burnt out more than 2.1 million acres. And that was only for June.

      One pesky fact (historical and current) that nuclear proponents ignore is that they believe they can dictate to a people. There is nothing as democratic as a people’s referendum on what they want. Won’t happen though – the nuclear industry would be out of business – pronto.

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  17. Marc Hendrickx

    Geologist

    Elsewhere on The Con Brian Schmidt has the following to say about uncertainty. From Clive's rant above its clear he needs to attend those lessons...

    https://theconversation.edu.au/brian-schmidt-in-conversation-8383

    When we were in Stockholm, we had an interview with the BBC, and the interviewer said: “So guys, if there’s one thing you could teach kids today, what would it be?” We all said the same thing – the concept of uncertainty.

    And we all kind of looked around like, “wow, that was kind of weird”, because that wasn’t an obvious thing, but we all had the same idea. That’s part of the scientific process – it’s deductive, but understanding uncertainty. Uncertainty is a huge thing. Almost never are things black and white. There are always probabilities.

    And that’s something we need to be teaching, in my opinion, in high school. The idea of how risk and probability goes into real-life problems. And we don’t teach that.

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      So when you quote a paper from Forster, P. M. D. and Gregory, J. M. (2006) who found "a 1.0–4.1-K range for the equilibrium warming due to a doubling of carbon dioxide" why do you discount the possibility of the 4.1K end of the range?

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    2. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      When so many other papers also report low probabilities for the higher end scenarios, and that mid range gets progressively lower and lower...yes I consider 4 degrees a very low probability event.

      Why do you discount the lower end?

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    3. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      What "so many other papers"?

      And why did you misrepresent the range by a single figure (that was NOT the mid point) and now choose to focus on the lower end?

      Other, of course, than to misrepresent the data and be a pesudo-skeptic??

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    4. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Mark/Mike,
      Its clear that your entrenched alarmism will not be moved regardless of the evidence.

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    5. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Mr Hendrickx has yet to present any evidence. Thus far all he has done is make misleading statements, ad-hominem attacks and mis-represent published science.

      All of these are at odds with the conclusions of every single national science body of credibility.

      Rather than address the evidence Mr hendrickx prefers to label anyone who accepts the reality of AGW an "alarmist" or indulge in derogatory attacks.

      This is typical of Those Relying On Lightweight Logical Silliness

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    6. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Marc Hendrickx: "Its clear that your" blah blah blah.

      And back he comes with the ad hom.

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  18. Michael Brown

    Professional, academic, company director

    The use of the term "denial" in the very first sentence identifies the author as an extremist. He stood for parliament in the seat of Higgins a few years ago and got almost none of the vote. Higgins has a high proportion of tertiary qualified voters, and a signficant number of young apartment dwellers. This confirms that Clive's views are indeed extreme, and have no significant support in the general population.

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Michael Brown

      The "No Carbon Tax Climate Skeptics" stood for the Senate in Victoria in 2010 and received 0.15% of the vote.
      This indicates that your views are extreme and have no support in the general population.
      Where did you say you were an academic again?

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  19. Gerard Dean

    Managing Director

    "Climate change and the soothing message of luke- warmism - coolism"

    You are correct contending that the Hartwell House group are having it both ways by spouting environmental platitudes then effectively calling for a continuation of unlimited economic growth. Unfortunately however, the earth's finite resources face a far greater threat from the Luke Warmer's allies - the Luke Coolers.

    Luke Coolers are the people who install low wattage light bulbs and solar panels on their roof, then blow the annual energy savings made (if any), by using their gas heating for a night or flying to Europe for a holiday or academic conference.

    Old Mother Earth doesn't really care who you are a Luke Warmer or Luke Cooler, all she knows is that you want her gizzards for the new iPad you are buying next week.

    Funny things us humans.

    Gerard "The Troll" Dean
    Glen Iris

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    1. Blair Donaldson

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Gerard, Generalisations might make you feel superior but most of the people I know who have made the effort to go to low energy lightbulbs and put solar panels on the roof are retirees and pensioners who can see their energy costs continuing to rise and recognise saving energy and/or producing their own makes for good economics. Few of them have the wherewithal to go on overseas trips.

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    2. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Blair Donaldson

      Mr Donaldson

      I am afraid you are guilty of generalising. Pensioners don't have the cash to install a solar system, especially if they are renters. The main market for solar panel installations is professional, 2 income families who own their own home.

      My point is illustrated by a relative who installed a 1.5 KW system and proudly announced he was making 1/2 of his home's energy usage. I explained that his new 20KwHr ducted heating system used around 20 times the solar panel system output per winter's day. Then I added that the energy to fly his family to NSW and WA on their recent holidays would take 20 years to generate on the solar installation. He changed the subject.

      Stick to the facts.

      Gerard Dean

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    3. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Gerard Dean: "Pensioners don't have the cash to install a solar system, ..." Interesting assertion - and contrary to the facts.

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    4. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to David Boxall

      Ahhh Mr Boxall

      We meet again, and again you are master of the factual argument, and again you provide no facts.

      Firstly, approximately 1/3 of pensioners don't own their own home, so they won't put solar panels on the roof. About half of the homeowners are too poor to install the system, leaving 1/3 of pensioners in the market.

      Again, the main market for solar panel systems are middle class, 2 income families who are driven by the desire to do something for the environment and have the spare cash to do so.

      Stick to the facts.

      Gerard Dean
      Glen Iris

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    5. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      "the new iPad you are buying next week."

      iPads use about 4 watts of power. Just sticking to the facts.

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    6. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Gerard Dean: "... again you provide no facts." All of those I know who have installed photovoltaics are retired. Most of them are on partial pensions.
      Gerard Dean: "... approximately 1/3 of pensioners don't own their own home, so they won't put solar panels on the roof. About half of the homeowners are too poor to install the system, leaving 1/3 of pensioners in the market.

      Again, the main market for solar panel systems are middle class, 2 income families who are driven by the desire to do something for the environment and have the spare cash to do so."
      Source?
      Gerard Dean: "Stick to the facts." Hypocrisy?

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    7. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Gerard, who are you? Is Gerard Dean even your real name?
      Your behaviour is that of a teenage boy. You login via a Yahoo email account.
      There's an OurSay account in that name. http://w.oursay.org/user/gerard-dean-1 The views expressed are similar to those expressed here.
      There's a mention on http://www.mrmudd.com.au/testimonials.php of "Gerard Dean, Builder (Glen Iris)". That couldn't be you, you're a "Managing Director". Of course you are.

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    8. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to David Boxall

      Gerard Leo Dean
      Born 9 December 1955 Barham NSW
      Grew up in the Wimmera. Worked on the farm from aged 4 until I escaped.
      Worked in the mines and on the drilling rigs way out west.
      Qualified as electronic technician and worked 10 years for the Navy and Army.
      Started own business, Versatile Technology P/L
      Design, manufacture and export over 90% of production of high technology measurement systems to major, international companies in the USA, Europe, Middle East and China.
      EVERY beer and cola can lid manufactured in Europe is tested on Versatile Technology systems, made right here in Melbourne. 66% of US lids, the same.
      Company Mission Statement: TOTAL WAR

      I don't hide Mr Boxall

      Gerard JetA1 Dean
      Glen Iris

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    9. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      Mr O'Neill

      Ipads Use 4 watts but try making them out of Clag and a bit of paper. An iPad is made from:

      - Plastic from oil stock
      - Aluminium which is mined,smelted, refined, rolled, extruded, machined, coated and fitted
      - Steel, same as aluminium
      - Silicon
      - Rare earths for chips
      - Copper, beryllium copper, brass, bronze, tin, lead, silver, gold
      - Lithium

      Just sticking to the facts

      Gerard Dean
      Glen Iris

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    10. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      "Gerard Leo Dean
      Born 9 December 1955"
      The sullen teenager act belies that.

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    11. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      "An iPad is made from"

      No kidding. And how much GHG emissions are caused in the production of one compared with the tonnes per annum of GHGs that the Australian person using an iPad is responsible for in their gas heating/overseas holidays that you like to mention? It's ridiculous to lump iPads in with those other forms of energy consumption with the implication that they are anywhere near comparable.

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    12. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Gerard Dean:
      "Managing Director (logged in via email @yahoo.com.au)". Would a genuine Managing Director need to log in via a Yahoo email account?
      "Company Mission Statement: TOTAL WAR". Would a genuine Managing Director speak so of his company?
      "Gerard JetA1 Dean". Would an adult speak so of himself?
      Has a sullen teenager stolen the identity of Gerard Dean?
      Has "Gerard Dean" often given sources for his assertions? Has he ever?
      Is the child who has assumed the identity of "Gerard Dean" merely saying whatever it hopes will provoke?
      Would that behaviour qualify as trolling?

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    13. In reply to Gerard Dean

      Comment removed by moderator.

    14. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to David Boxall

      Mr Boxall

      I cannot understand why you don't believe me.

      I am the founder and Managing Director of Versatile Technology P/L. Versatile Technology designs and manufacturers high technology measurement systems, 90% of which are exported to major companies worldwide, including the company that makes most of the satellites spinning through space. Our Mission Statement printed on the wall of Versatile Technology P/L is "TOTAL WAR"

      I wish I were a sullen teenager and not 56 years old, but I have…

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    15. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Shirley Birney

      Ms Birney

      I am very proud to have been bought up on a wheatfarm. The struggle my Mum went through during the 67 drought when my dad went away for work doesn't bear thinking about. We grew the wheat that fed the nation.

      I am proud to have worked in the mines and on the drilling rigs. The money from the mines and exploratory drilling is keeping our schools and hospitals running, our retirees housed and ammunition in our soldiers rifles to keep us safe from those who would wish us harm. All good things, I am sure you will agree.

      Gerard Dean
      Glen Iris

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    16. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to David Boxall

      Mr O'Neill

      You are correct. iPads use a miniscule amount of power and resources from the earth. I totally agree that gas heating and overseas holidays use gargantuan amounts of power and resources in comparison.

      My point about the construction of the iPad is that it relies on the scientific-industrial complex we have wrought. We cannot have super advanced, low power devices without this complex system.

      On the issue of overseas holidays, I often ask people on this site to ethically justify how they can choose to fly overseas for holidays, and at the same time, claim they live sustainably. I contend that the two are mutually exclusive with current technology.

      In fact, I have posed this question to Professor Hamilton in view that his special interest is "ethics of climate change". Thus far, he has not responded.

      Thank you again.

      Gerard Dean
      Glen Iris
      Thank you

      Gerard Dean
      Glen Iris

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    17. In reply to Gerard Dean

      Comment removed by moderator.

    18. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Shirley Birney

      Ms Birney

      I don't mind you calling me a hypocritical stone dead, forked tongue, clueless rockape but please, in future don't smear my mother's or our farmer's reputation.

      The hardworking women and men on our farms battle floods, fire, drought, the high A$ and the bank manager to grow the food that you eat. What little pollution they create is more than compensated by the good they do by sustaining millions of people around the world.

      Thank you

      Gerard "Hypocritical, stone dead, forked tongue, clueless Rockape" Dean
      Glen Iris

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    19. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Gerard Dean: "... I often ask ...". The least you could do is come up with a new troll. That one's getting really boring. It reveals only your lack of honesty and imagination.

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    20. In reply to Gerard Dean

      Comment removed by moderator.

    21. Philip Dowling

      IT teacher

      In reply to David Boxall

      Gerard,
      Repeating a nonsense indicates a certain psychological trait.
      Have you noticed that soap seems to last a shorter and shorter time?
      How many times do you check that the front door is shut before going to bed?
      Have you checked your smoke alarms today?

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    22. Philip Dowling

      IT teacher

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Lithium batteries use an extremely scarce resource, and China wants to keep it that way.

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  20. Mike Stuart

    jaffle-maker

    I don't believe that Clive is suggesting a suspension of democracy but merely highlighting the risks involved in circular debate. The vested interests in climate change scepticism are difficult to ignore and the fact that yet another crucial issue - that affects everyone - has been effectively polarised amongst the populace suggests the vested interests have had some success in watering down the broader issues in play. For over 20 years now (probably longer) the risks of climate change have been…

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    1. Marc Hendrickx

      Geologist

      In reply to Timothy Wong

      From that self contradictory article; "Ice cores from Summit show that melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average. With the last one happening in 1889, this event is right on time," says Lora Koenig, a Goddard glaciologist and a member of the research team analyzing the satellite data.

      Hardly unprecedented!

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  21. James Sexton

    Network administrator

    This has got to be the funniest most delusional article I've seen from Clive, yet!

    Clive, I'm a conservative. I'm here to tell you, those people are not conservatives. Mike Hulme wanted climate-gate to be true?...... phhhttt, snort, chuckle.... LOL!!!!! Mike Hulme is all in the climate-gate emails!!! Both 1.0 and 2.0! They aren't just true to him, he's in them! His emails are in climate-gate! Is it your position that someone else wrote Hulme's emails? http://junkscience.com/2011/11/22/climategate

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to James Sexton

      ...... phhhttt, snort, chuckle.... LOL!!!!!

      Must be some sort of climate denier code. I guess they get the code book with the tin foil hat.

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    2. James Sexton

      Network administrator

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      I suppose I could have put in OMG LOL!!!! If anyone is wearing the tinfoil hats it would be people believing the delusional rantings of Clive.

      He seems to be insisting that everyone who doesn't share his very extreme views on climate science and ideology are on the same team. He's lumping Lomborg with Hulme?

      He saying Hulme wanted climategate to be true? The last thing in the world Hulme wanted was his idiotic emails to be public.

      But, hey, this is what happens when your version of reality includes unicorns.

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    3. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Spiro Vlachos

      Ah Yes, lets refer to Andrew Bolt, that doyen of balance, reason and presenting statements based on evidence and truth. Full of transparent reason of course

      LOL

      http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress.com/2012/07/11/andrew-bolts-blog-collapses-in-on-itself-surprised/

      Sorry Spiros, but this last post puts the nail in the coffin of your motivations and credibility.

      Don't expect to be taken any more seriously than Berthold Klein from now on

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  22. Brian Boss

    Architect

    Nice one Clive, but the only text which should inform a NON CLIMATE SCIENTISTS opinion is the following summary:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

    especially this:

    "Statements by dissenting organizations:

    Since 2007, when the American Association of Petroleum Geologists released a revised statement, no scientific body of national or international standing rejects the findings of human-induced effects on climate change."

    Any discussion of anything else is waste of time and effort, especially cherry picked science by an armchair scientists. Be especially wary of a scientist debating science amongst armchair scientists in forums such as these...I reckon they do this cause they are so poor intellectually, that to debate a real peer reviewed scientist in a science journal would show them up as the fools they are...

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    1. Fred Pribac

      logged in via email @internode.on.net

      In reply to Brian Boss

      Your first point is well made but the following assertion that scientists who debate here are all second rate is not accurate.

      That scientists, from whatever part of the bell curve, engage here with non-scientists in one on one debate is to be applauded.

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  23. Trevor Ellice

    Geologist

    The future of climate change in Aust:
    - prior to the next election Abbott announces an equiry into the science of AGW
    - Abbott wins the election calls for review of funding for BOM and CSIRO and announces generous fundng for an independent equiry into the science of AGW with emphasis on a 'more balanced appoach'
    - Academics here the dog whistle and goin the new outfit in droves
    - Reports appear downplaying the alarmist reports of the IPCC, the role of CO2 in the climate, and the dire effects of warming - sea level change and ocean acidification are invalidated by 'new data'
    - Bang the climate has changed

    we live in hope for our deliverance

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      "Abbott announces an equiry into the science of AGW"
      "Abbott wins the election calls for review of funding for BOM and CSIRO..."

      He could call the enquiry "The Inquisition". Cardinal Pell could chair it.
      Perhaps he could get the climate science deniers from "The Galileo Society" to be witnesses.

      The Queensland LNP have already passed a motion outlawing the teaching of climate science in Queensland schools.
      The next step is follow the republicans of North Carolina who have banned sea-level rise.

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    2. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      I almost forgot. The members of the Lavoisier Society could provide the guillotine for any found guilty in the enquiry - particularly in relation to the Carbon Tax.

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    3. Gary Murphy

      Independent Thinker

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      What's an equiry? Is that where you source all of your information from two blogs and ignore all of the other data?

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    4. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Gary Murphy

      Gary Murphy: "What's an equiry?" Something you don't hold until you can ensure that it will come up with the finding you want?

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    5. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Mike Hansen: "... the republicans of North Carolina who have banned sea-level rise." Didn't a bloke named Canute try that?

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  24. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Gary Murphy repeated the AGW stupid statement that the Sun does not have an effect on climate change-here is a recent report that proves that the AGW crowd can not be trusted to tell the truth.
    ­ If the sun can warm the earth as it rotates by 20 to 50 degrees every 12 hours, why isn't it responsible for "climate change"?
    The temperature in the Outback goes from below freezing at night to 45degree C at the heat of the day but according to the fairy-tale from John Cook at “Skeptic Junk Science…

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    1. Gary Murphy

      Independent Thinker

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      I never said that the sun does not affect climate change. I am well aware that in the past the sun was the trigger for rapid warming due to increasing greenhouse gases. What I said was that the sun is not responsible for the recent warming (there is a negative correlation between increasing temperatures and decreasing solar irradiance).
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Changes_in_mean_solar_irradiance_and_mean_global_surface_temperature_on_Earth_since_the_year_1978.png
      from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attribution_of_recent_climate_change

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    2. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Gary Murphy

      Berthold Klein: "If the sun can warm the earth as it rotates by 20 to 50 degrees every 12 hours"

      Actually, it rotates close to 180 degrees in 12 hours.

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    3. Mark Chambers

      Business & Marketing Consultant

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      Chris.

      Chances are pretty good that when Mr Klein stated '20 to 50 degrees every 12 hours' that he was talking about 'temperature' ... not the rotation of the earth. So 'Actually' ...

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    4. Shirley Birney

      retiree

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      We are not debating the sun’s attribution to planetary warming but the unprecedented rapidity of anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the biosphere and beyond.

      Annual global emissions for all degassing subaerial (on land) and submarine volcanoes of CO2 (highest preferred estimate) is 0.26 Gt/year and A/CO2 emissions are 35 Gt/year.

      http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php

      The majority of mass extinctions are a result of carbon perturbations – not the sun’s warming.

      Why not ask a…

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    5. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Trying to refute published peer reviewed conclusions by links to blogs that are not peer reviewed science nor are based on it, especially to someone who denies the reality of the Greenhouse Effetc (as the reference Trevor supplies does), only betrays the fact that Trevor Ellice is a pseudo-skeptic who wishes to deny the reality of climate science and AGW rather than a genuine skeptic who questions real data and seeks to improve his understanding of the issue

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    6. Philip Dowling

      IT teacher

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Do you mean peer- reviewed results or conclusions.
      S0 peer review has become an imprimatur rather than a nihil obstat in you CAGW religion?

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    7. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Philip Dowling

      More cyncism Phillip?

      When a pseudo-skeptic practices cycnicism and condemns acceptance as "faith" (when faith and cynicism are actually the same thing - just opposite sides of the coin), they are really saying you're good if you agree with them and you're bad if you don't. People who assume that all belief is blind faith are incapable of understanding how a person can have firm beleif and yet be open to considering new information that may appear at first to contradict that belief.

      Apparently…

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    8. Shirley Birney

      retiree

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Thank you for the link Trevor Ellice. Alas I got as far as author Timothy Casey’s reference to Plimer and Wishart to support his moonshine before I quit – cringe. Nuff said about Plimer and his loony tunes in “Heaven and Mirth.”

      Wishart is a creationist who claims a connection between abortion and breast cancer. When he found god at a baptism ceremony he recalled "It was exactly like a lightning bolt." The NZ Herald states: “There was a blinding flash of white and he was conscious of an…

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    9. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      well just because a paper is peer reviewed doesn't mean it is:
      - good science
      - useful in our understanding of natural world
      - useful
      - right headed
      - will stand the test of time

      Actually the current state of the literature on volcanic emissions would suggest the opposite.

      I did a google and was shocked. There is was human emissions trump volcanoes and great sux to Plimer. It all seems reactionary to Plimers statements - a couple of assumptions for land volcanoes and a few more about the lack of submarine relevance and some rubbish about a natura since of lava at the sea floor (what?). Nothing about the methodlgy used.

      Truth is we haven't a clue, but really with all those seamounts and kilometers of MOR how can anybody keep a straight face of this and say man's emissions dwarf the natural.

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    10. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Actually Trevor when a paper is peer reviewed in a reputable journal it means all those things. At least with a high likelihood (test of time of course matters).

      It is certainly far more reliable than unreferenced blogs you appear to use as a source.

      here's a summary from a reputable science based magazine (based on the published literature)

      http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11638-climate-myths-human-co2-emissions-are-too-tiny-to-matter.html

      But most telling of all is logic. IF volcanoes (some mysterious yet to be discovered undersea one apparently) are responsible for the unprecendented rate of increase of CO2 - how coe they SUDDENLY started emitting but yet have remaained totally undetected???

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    11. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      pseudo skeptic - like it, but climate science is pseudo science.

      So what is a pseudo skeptic of pseudo science a pseudo squared - hey I've got another name for you guys to call the enlightened amongst us.

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    12. Shirley Birney

      retiree

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      "Truth is we haven't a clue...."

      If we haven't a clue, why did you try to hoodwink us into believing Wishart's/Casey's rubbish on volcanoes?

      Plimer claims volcanoes are the cause of rising CO2, after trying to convince everybody that CO2 is an unimportant trace gas and doesn’t change climate anyway.

      On a 60 Minutes chat in 2006, Plimer stated that "volcanoes that leak out carbon dioxide have caused global warming in the past", a statement that starkly contrasts with his later claims that CO2 levels have no effect on climate.

      Have you no shame, no principles at all?

      http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Ian_Plimer

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    13. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Shirley Birney

      Plimer's strategy is to deny everything. Deny:

      that the CO2 rise is anthropogenic,

      that CO2 causes warming,

      that it is warming,

      that warming might be harmful,

      that we can reduce CO2 emissions,

      that we still have time for mitigation.

      For non-skeptics like Trevor Ellice, Plimer's blanket denial does not affect his credibility.

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    14. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      I was an avid reader and subscibed to new scientist for years - until it became captured by the climate caper and I cancelled my subscription in protest. I couldn't believe (and still don't) the apologist climate crap they print. It fails the helicopter test and is just rubbish, pure and simple in my opinion.

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    15. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      not undetected - the planet degasses steadily all the time. As the ocenas turnover, over decades this gas from the deep ocean exolves from the surface - this is a large part of the carbon cycle to which man's emissions are about 3%. So you warmists need to demontrate that not only does a trace gas control climate and small percentage of that trace gas makes a difference. You see why the whole climate caper thing is bunkum.

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    16. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Whether or not you believe New Scientist or not is irrelevant (their report is based on published science).

      here's some more science http://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htm

      Regardsless it cannot be volcanoes. Logic makes this clear. Known volcanoes emit around 1% or less CO2 than humans. The increase in CO2 levels has been comparatively recent (roughly the last 150 years). lifting levels from around 280ppm to close to 400ppm.

      For volcanoes to have been the cause they either must have suddenly (and undetected) started to emit 100x more than they did historically or 100x more than are known have suddenly appeared (again undetected) and started emitting.

      It's just not plausible. It's Plimers BS rubbish

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    17. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      to add clarification to you post for those with the wool puled over their eyes

      that the CO2 rise is anthropogenic, - thats right the isotopic evidence is actually not there

      that CO2 causes warming - only a little, swamped by other factors

      that it is warming,- not since 1998 it aint - ayways so what the earth goes through warming and cooling cycles all the time

      that warming might be harmful - why would it be harmful - didn't do the Romans, Vikings in Greenland and those in the middle ages any harm - cold is bad for man

      that we can reduce CO2 emissions, - not much renewables will never provide base load and why bother anyway

      that we still have time for mitigation. - mitigate what?

      hey at last some issues to debate and debunk - thanks

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    18. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      I suggest you study the actual science in future before you post any further demonstrating your abysmal ignorance on the topic.

      Do you SERIOUSLY think you have some profound insight on this that the world's scientists have missed????

      Your logic is completely flawed.

      The natural cycle adds and removes CO2 to keep a balance; humans add extra CO2 without removing any.

      Consider a swimming pool. It has recycling filter that recycles 100% of the water over time. But if I add just 1% of the total volume in the time that volume is re-cycled the pool will overflow.

      Read this (if you are genuine in willing to understand as opposed to a denialist in disguise)

      http://www.skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions.htm

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    19. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Seriously?? Great Trevor, I look forward to you communicating the startling conclusions of your armchair ignorance to the IPCC and the world's science community.

      before you do that you might want to read some actual science though?

      http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/volltexte/2006/6862/pdf/LevinRAD2000.pdf
      RADIOCARBON – A UNIQUE TRACER OF GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE DYNAMICS
      " the unique characteristics of fossil fuel derived CO2 being 14C-free
      allows the tracking of respective emission…

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    20. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      you know this comment really cuts the heart of the matter.

      'The natural cycle adds and removes CO2 to keep a balance; humans add extra CO2 without removing any.'

      the judaeo christian view that we are ex nature and different - it is a modern manifestation of original sin. Nature does not know the difference between a molecule of co2 emitted by us or a wilderbeast with bad breath. The Carbon cycle goes on and sequests carbon dioxide from wherever it can lay it's hands on it. That is why…

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    21. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      According to Trevor Ellice: "that the CO2 rise is anthropogenic, - thats right the isotopic evidence is actually not there"

      Absolutely false. Ferdinand Englebeen has carefully set out the evidence: http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/co2_measurements.html#The_mass_balance

      Anyone who denies the evidence like Trevor Ellice is deeply in denial. His strategy is the same as Plimer's: deny everything. Like Plimer, he's a crackpot who doesn't care about his own credibility.

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    22. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Given that you appear to be evidence, science and logic immune - and therfore totally disconnected from reality there is no point in discussing anything with you Trevor. You obviously have no understanding of the issues and are in complete denial. Pitiable but alas not uncommon

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    23. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      "do some research off the mainstream and you wil be surprised"

      Science gives evidence in support of, against, or neutral to an hypothesis - all of which is "mainstream", so by "off the maintstream" I can only assume you can mean reading some bloke's mad blog about stuff he would like to be true but has no scientific validity whatsoever.

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    24. Ron Chinchen

      Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Simplistic as this may seem, the arguments remind me of the old story of the asteroid approaching Earth but no one believes until they see it with their own eyes. Trouble is when you can see it, its already too late to do anything about it.

      We can sit here posturing about an issue that just might cause minimal harm or just might bring about the end of civilisation. But we have to ask the question.

      Two options are available to us and you have to ask which as a betting person would you choose.

      We do something and face potential temporary ridicule and a bit of financial pain later on.

      Or we do nothing and leave our children potential chaos and possibly the end of this civilisation.

      Its a question of the odds. A good gambler limits himself/herself to what they can afford to lose.

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    25. Mark Chambers

      Business & Marketing Consultant

      In reply to Ron Chinchen

      Hi Ron.

      Well said. The only points worth adding may be that we are arguing about this issue as if (1) anyone is going to change anyone else's mind, and (2) that our conclusions will actually make a difference to whether the world will put a price on carbon or not.

      Discussing the political approach to it (not politics or the politics of it) might be worth discussing as that might make a difference. Every 3 years we are all required to elect a government, the party we elect to govern us will have a policy on how 'they' plan to approach it, and our conclusions here have at least a chance of influencing how those policies are implemented, or which party gets to roll the dice.

      Cheers Ron.

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    26. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Ron Chinchen

      God Almighty -

      this is whole thing, what bloody catastrophe. But I am so woefully ignorant of he science I am beyong the pale. The onus is on you guys to demonstrate what the problem is!!! So tell me in your own words, don't hide behind and academic paper - what exactly are we so scared of - a few degrees warming - bring it on.

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    27. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Interesting that when people quote actual evidence and science at you you call it "hiding behind an academic paper".

      Interesting that you cannot be bothered to inform yourself but expect others to do it for you

      Permanent Address: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=climate-change-impact-on-human-health-overlooked
      Climate Change Impact on Human Health Overlooked
      From cholera to heat wave deaths, global warming will raise illness and mortality risks

      Permanent Address: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=climate-change-poses-disaster-risk-for-most-planet
      Climate Change Poses Disaster Risk for Most of the Planet
      A complete report on extreme weather from the IPCC suggests a future of more natural disasters

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    28. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      In spite of being "so woefully ignorant of he science I am beyong the pale" you still think you're entitled to make (false) scientific claims like:

      "thats right the isotopic evidence (for anthropogenic CO2 rise) is actually not there"

      Sounds like you have a serious case of hypocrisy.

      At least you're right when you say "I am so woefully ignorant of he science I am beyong the pale". But a broken clock is right twice a day.

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    29. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Do you like good coffee Trevor? I don't mean the crap farmed on large broad plain plantations but the quality stuff, high grown on volcanic slopes? Coffeeis one of several commercially important crops that is highly vulnerable to small changes in climate - particularly temperature. In addition to the plant biology issues it is also at risk from reduced pollination. This is one large commercial crop at risk, and which is already showing the effects. There is substantial literature on risk to crops - so much so that I roll my eyes every time I hear the "CO2 is plant food line" or comments like yours that express a belief thwt a little warming will be just fine. It is a view that as someone who claims to be a scientist who have no rational basis for holding, not in the face of the extensive evidence across a broad range of non-climate related fields in addition to the climate science itself.

      You do your credibility harm with your approach to this discussion.

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    30. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Trevor Ellice: "... what bloody catastrophe."
      Carl Sagan: "There is no guarantee that our planet will always be so hospitable. To maintain this clement world we must understand it and appreciate it. The runaway greenhouse effect on Venus is a valuable reminder that we should take the increasing greenhouse effect on earth seriously."
      Stephen Hawking: "We don’t know where global warming will stop but the worst case scenario is that the earth will become like its sister planet Venus, with a temperature of 250 degrees C ..."
      That one.

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    31. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Grendelus Malleolus

      where is the evidence of the threat to coffee - risk to crops, you people are mad as hatters. Apologies for the Ad Hom but you lead a horse to water.
      Anyways move the coffee plantation 200m up the slope if there really is a warming.

      I give up - believe what you like. I'll kick back and enjoy what warmth we have left before the next little ice age which looks more likely (given the current state of Sol) than your crackpot warming scenarios

      later dudes

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    32. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      You're a crackpot yourself. "the isotopic evidence (for anthropogenic CO2 rise) is actually not there" indeed.

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    33. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      And the rice? Sensitive as it is to slight variations in temp during pollination? Going to move those rice paddies where exactly?

      Trevor you have set your mind on a course and even when evidence from multiple fields suggests the opposite of what you claim to refuse to consider that evidence and prefer instead to riddle those who delivered the mail.

      You sir, are a jerk.

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  25. Gerard Dean

    Managing Director

    Professor Hamilton

    It was great to read your bio on the "Centre for Applied Philosphy and Public Ethics" website and find that 'Ethics of climate change' is listed as one of your special fields of interest.

    Perhaps you can answer an ethical question that was raised during the recent Rio+20 Sustainablity Conference held in Rio de Janerio.

    How should the 50,000 attendees ethically justify their choice to use thousands of tonnes of non renewable JetA1fuel to fly to the conference in order to call for mankind to stop using JetA1 Fuel?

    I look forward to your answer.

    Gerard Dean
    Glen Iris

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    1. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Mr Dean,

      This sort of repetition of concern trolling on a 3rd order issue does you no credit.

      A moments research would reveal the following

      http://www.uncsd2012.org/index.php?page=view&nr=249&type=1000&menu=126

      "The President of the General Assembly is launching a system-wide initiative to offset the carbon footprint from UN staff participation in Rio +20. The Special Unit for South-South Cooperation has been tasked to facilitate this initiative by building partnerships and leveraging the services of its flagship exchange platform - South-South Global Assets and Technology Exchange (SS-GATE) - to offset the estimated 3,600 tonnes of CO2 emissions from the participation (including travel) of approximately 1,400 UN staff in Rio +20"

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    2. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Mark Harrigan: "This sort of repetition of concern trolling on a 3rd order issue does you no credit."
      The fact that you waste resources responding is all the credit he wants. Do not feed the troll.

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    3. Philip Dowling

      IT teacher

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Mark,
      I was so relieved to read that "Special Unit for South-South Cooperation has been tasked to facilitate this initiative by building partnerships and leveraging the services of its flagship exchange platform - South-South Global Assets and Technology Exchange (SS-GATE)"/
      Now all that needs to be done is adjust the scalability variables by a suitably exponential factor with a suitable logarithmic function associated with the required relative molecular masses of carbon dioxide and methane then I am sure that SS-GATE in conjunction with the WE-SHUT committee and the EU-BROKE consultative can have a joint general assembly and so solve the problem of how to have bi-annual meetings to fast forward suitable progress in deciding what the agenda will be for the next meeting.

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    4. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Philip Dowling

      Philip,

      I am delighted to hear you are relieved :)

      Or have I (just possibly) mis-interpreted your feigned sense of humour as passive-aggressive cyncisim??

      Healthy skepticism includes refusing to condemn something as false unless it can be shown to be false. Someone with healthy skepticism may doubt something if it has not been proven to be true, but he would not condemn it as false unless he obtained verifiable evidence that it is false.

      Cynicism is refusing to believe anything is true…

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    5. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to David Boxall

      David - I disagree with a lot of things Mr Dean says. And I disagree with the fact that he continually repeats them in the manner he does. But I see no purpose in the kinds of personal identity attacks you are having with him. He is who he is. He holds views I suspect both of us find disagreeable as well as being ill-informed.

      I understand how sometime in the heat of debate with someone who uses troll like tactics, ad homs and gish gallop "logic" that it gets the hackles up of course

      I also do appreciate your concern about "feeding the trolls". It's a tough one becase, left alone, pseduo-skeptic trolls tend to try and dominate the posts with mis-representation and half truths. Getting the balance right between countering those mis-representations and not feeding their ego becuase someone has responded is not a balance I profess to always get right (maybe not even mostly). But I do try :)

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    6. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Dr Harrigan

      Thank you for springing to my defence, especially in view that you do not agree with my views. So thank you.

      Now, back to the facts.

      I am afraid that you have missed my point. The UN website you referred me to details the carbon offsets purchased (about US$80K) by the UN to offset the visit to Rio+20 by their 1,400 attendees.

      Firstly, it only constitutes about 3% of the 50,000 attendees, but more importantly, it does nothing to address the real problem which is sustainable…

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    7. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Mr Dean

      I do not think I have missed your point at all, with respect. But I do think you have a poor grasp of the matter and the "facts" as you call them

      First you framed your question "How should the 50,000 attendees ethically justify their choice to use thousands of tonnes of non renewable JetA1fuel to fly to the conference in order to call for mankind to stop using JetA1 Fuel?" in a way that is clearly not looking for an answer but is designed to cast asperions and be cynical.

      The fact…

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    8. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Dr Harrigan

      I am afraid that Old Mother Earth doesn't accept "Certified Emission Reduction" certificates. They are nothing more than "Carbon Indulgences" created by rich politicians and doctors to justify their own use of non renewable resources while lecturing the rest of us to stop using these same resources.

      The simple, incontrovertible fact is that 50,000 pious people used over 40 million litres of non renewable JetA1 fuel to fly to the United Nations Rio+20 Sustainability Conference…

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    9. Gerard Dean

      Managing Director

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      And one more thing Doctor Harrigan

      Don't even think that bio fuels or 'renewables' will fly you and your rich mates to Europe on holidays. They cannot and will not for the forseeable future. Perhaps by 2080, maybe 2050 but not by 2013. Until then you will be sucking old mother earth dry. No amount of Carbon Indulgences will wipe away that ecological sin.

      But there is more to my argument than JetA1 fuel. We can move the discussion to 440C Stainless Steel, a most wonderful steel alloy. I get a real kick out of specifying its use on components I design. The modern medical profession would be in big trouble without 440C stainless steel.

      Thank you

      Gerard 440C Dean
      Glen Iris

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    10. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      "Gerard", before anyone else wastes time responding to your trolls, they'd be well advised to wait for you to substantiate your ridiculous assertions. Consideration of your motives and integrity might also be in order.

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    11. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Mark Harrigan: "... I see no purpose in the kinds of personal identity attacks ...". My purpose is to point out the nature of the beast. Not every reader will readily recognise what it is.
      Mark Harrigan: "Getting the balance right between countering those mis-representations and not feeding their ego becuase someone has responded ...". You're right, of course, but then so am I. I guess it's just as well that we are many, attacking the issue from our own perspectives.
      Keep up the good work; you're evidently better qualified than I.

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    12. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to David Boxall

      Sigh - on the evidence of Mr Dean's posts it would appear you are right.

      A genuine skeptic truly interested in an answer to the "moral dilemma" Mr Dean poses would demonstrate interest in positive inquiry.

      Instead he has chosen to assert something is false/wrong without any basis. Despite being given evidence to the contrary.

      Cynical/pseudo skepticism then and hence irrational behaviour

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    13. Philip Dowling

      IT teacher

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      My cynicism derives from the use of committees which are so often set up not to do anything but to put in place a series of processes and meetings that are designed to ensure that complete obfuscation is achieved.

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    14. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Philip Dowling

      Philip Dowling: "... committees which are so often set up not to do anything ...".
      As distinct from opinionated ignorami, who pretend to know better than the best qualified and set themselves up to mislead, obfuscate and delay on, potentially, the fate of life on this planet.

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  26. Zvyozdochka

    logged in via Twitter

    To borrow a line from my favourite movie (Dr Strange Glove); "while we are here chatting so enjoyably" we're being distracted from the current key question in climate science.

    As I understand it the current key question is (paraphrasing) "Will the effects of AGW be as bad as predicted or WORSE"?

    Every scrap of energy arguing with forms of denier (outright or lukewarm) distracts us from correct policy adovacy or action.

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  27. Don Aitkin

    writer, speaker and teacher

    Is it just that the article by Clive Hamilton was so bad that this is the largest thread I have seen?

    Can't we get off labelling and ad hominems and discuss issues rationally and courteously?

    And this is a website sponsored by universities!

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    1. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Don Aitkin

      Rational discussion requires the use of evidence and facts.

      Far too many pseudo-skeptics who cannot accept what the science and evidence says about AGW or who claim to "yet to be pursuaded" seem incapable of this (present company excepted of course)

      When they then resort to a Tireless Repitition Of Lax Logic tactics and continually shift their points Gish Gallop style and frequently indulge in ad-hominem attacks then those who DO refer to the science can often be frustrated.

      Put it down to the robustness of debate.

      I also believe that Evidence and Real science based on peer reviewed literature ought to trump veneers of politeness covering pseudo-skepticism on an issue of such importance.

      :)

      Have a nice day Don

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    2. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Don Aitkin

      Don Aitkin: "Can't we get off labelling and ad hominems and discuss issues rationally and courteously?"

      Don forget to mention, ignore facts that he doesn't want to talk about such as that the satellite record shows 0.46 deg C of global warming since it began in 1978: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/plot/uah/trend

      Ignoring such facts is being so rational.

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    3. Shirley Birney

      retiree

      In reply to Don Aitkin

      Don it's the amateurs among industry's dancing boys that you should worry about:

      “Nazi youth and bed-wetting moaning Minnies of the Apocalyptic Traffic-Light Tendency—those Greens too yellow to admit they’re really Reds.”

      Have you had the pleasure of meeting the infamous vaude-villain Don? He has a habit of infiltrating down under, replete with swastika and stuff to scare the common folk. .

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  28. Shirley Birney

    retiree

    Anglo-Dutch oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is the biggest company in the world, according to the 2012 Global 500 list published annually by Fortune Magazine.

    The hit and run Shell acquired its wealth from bludging off the environment and fuelling human rights abuses with impunity. Shell has trashed the Niger Delta and is planning to convert the Arctic into an oil field.

    No doubt climate villains and pseudo-economists - i.e. impostor Monckton, Nordhaus, Shellenberger, Man-Child Bjorn et al are rejoicing:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/22/arctic-ice-melting-oil-drilling

    Please consider signing the following petition and sending it on to others. Every protest counts folks. Your choice, your future:

    http://www.avaaz.org/en/save_the_arctic/?bcYEFab&v=16632

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    1. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Marc Hendrickx

      Marc Hendrickx: "That's spam madam!"
      Inasmuch as it relates, directly and indirectly, to the subject of the article and succeeded in provoking a rabid anti-climate-scientist, I disagree.

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  29. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    I have been responding on other posts on the Conversation. Now it time to get more provable facts not fairy-tales.
    Any references to Carl Sagan or Steven Hawking knowing anything about the Hoax of Mann-made Global warming is based on the paid for U Tube video. They both used the same script given them by either WWF , Sierra Club. or Greenpeace. They know about the Stars but they do not know about the air we breath.
    Section 1
    The Greenhouse Effect Explored

    Written by Carl Brehmer | 26 May…

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    1. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      I like this:

      "Any references to Carl Sagan or Steven Hawking knowing anything about the Hoax of Mann-made Global warming.."

      followed by this:

      "In 1976, Cess obtained .... numbers equation is not applicable to a three dimentianal configureation why …

      arXiv:1009.3974v4 [gr-qc] 13 Mar 2012
      http://arxiv.org/pdf/1009.3974
      of Hawking radiation corresponds..."

      You just couldn't make this up.

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    2. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Berthold Klein: "Any references to Carl Sagan or Steven Hawking knowing anything about the Hoax of Mann-made Global warming is based on the paid for U Tube video. They both used the same script given them by either WWF , Sierra Club. or Greenpeace."
      Maligning a dead man and one of the best minds on the planet. Way to go!
      If memory serves, Sagan and Hawking made their videos decades apart. Bear in mind that Sagan died in 1996, still holding the opinion expressed in his video. Has Hawking recanted…

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    3. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Berthold Klein: "Any references to Carl Sagan ... knowing anything about ... Mann-made Global warming ...".
      For those who may not be aware, on the dynamics of planetary atmospheres, Carl Sagan remains arguably the best mind this planet has ever produced. His perspective extended beyond our home planet. Among other projects, he worked on the Mariner missions to Mars.*
      His opinion remains germane, to this day. Any implication to the contrary can be attributed to some combination of ignorance, stupidity…

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  30. Spiro Vlachos

    AL

    Another bit of nonsense from an extremist Greens candidate.

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    1. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Spiro Vlachos

      Spiro Vlachos: "Another bit of nonsense from an extremist Greens candidate."
      Spiro; if you want to be taken seriously, then detail your objections. Petulant disagreement does little but damage your credibility

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    2. Spiro Vlachos

      AL

      In reply to David Boxall

      I object with the author being given space on this site.

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    3. Spiro Vlachos

      AL

      In reply to David Boxall

      Petulance is a government that gives such extremists a voice.

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    4. Shirley Birney

      retiree

      In reply to Spiro Vlachos

      This site was formed as a forum for critical thinkers but alas your silly one liners fail the sniff test. Goodbye.

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    5. Spiro Vlachos

      AL

      In reply to Shirley Birney

      Forum for critical thinkers, or a love-in for adherents to this extremist doctrine? The author feigns the importance of a democracy, yet has advocated is suspension, and the democracy wants nothing to do with him. Shirley Birney, David Boxall, Clive Hamilton, you are all fringe to put it lightly. You have nothing positive to offer us.

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    6. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Spiro Vlachos

      Interesting Spiro that you object to Mr Hamilton on the grounds he is anti-democatic and in the same thread object to him being given a voice - when a fundamental principle of democracy is not to deny other's their voice (no matter how much we might disagree with them) provided they do not incite hatred or vollification.

      Do you not see the contradition in that?

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  31. Ian Douglas

    Solution Architect

    I realise that I am not adding to the debate but I would like to point out that I was really hoping that this website would contain educated, coherent and articulate discussions about the issues at hand. You only have to look at this thread to realise that it is dominated by a particular mindset. Anyone who respectfully questions the orthodoxy, or ventures a differing opinion is immediately chastised and disrespected. If you don't believe me then you only have to look at the 'insightful' vs 'unconstructive' votes against each comment. In this particular conversion if your views (no matter how personally offensive or inaccurate) are pro-AGW then you get a bunch of 'insightful' votes. If you dare respectfully question the AGW orthodoxy, regardless of your argument or your references, you are rewarded with vitriol and a bunch of 'unconstructive' votes. Sure any 'conversation' should allow for differing points of view? Otherwise what is the point? Some sort of intellectual group-hug?

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    1. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Ian Douglas

      Ian Douglas, would you be so kind as to point me to the precise comment where someone has

      (a) RESPECTFULLY questioned the "orthodoxy" (as you put it) - which means they do not use words like "kookite" or liken some one to the three stooges ar accus thosee who disagree with them of being religious or other similar commentaary
      (b) Based their questioning on some well referenced evidence (as opposed to fanciful blogs based on no real science) and
      (c) Received a large quota of red marks (i.e. readers regarded their comments as unconstructive)?

      Thanks :)

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    2. Ian Douglas

      Solution Architect

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Hi Mark

      Not sure why you have an issue with the word 'orthodoxy'?

      orthodoxy |ˈɔːθədɒksi|
      noun ( pl. orthodoxies ) [ mass noun ]
      1 authorized or generally accepted theory,

      Perhaps you would like me to reference that? :) I would have thought given how strong you have been defending AGW that would consider it an orthodoxy. In any case, I have to say even some of your responses could be a tad nicer.

      For example you wrote: "I suggest you study the actual science in future before you post any further demonstrating your abysmal ignorance on the topic."

      Is it really necessary to call someone ignorant just because they disagree with you?

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    3. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Ian Douglas

      Hi Ian,

      1) I feel you are being disingenous. Using the word "orthodoxy" is clearly value laden. I am quite well aware what it means - perhaps you are not entirely? It has the meaning of "in accordance with the teaching and direction of an absolute extrinsic authority." - something I do not think is applicable here as much as you seem to imply.

      2) I note you have comprehensively failed to point to a specific post that both respectfully challenges the scientific concensus (lets avoid the value…

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    4. Mark Chambers

      Business & Marketing Consultant

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Hi Mark H.

      Mr Douglas may not realise that some of us have been having this argument (with the same players) for post after post after post after post after post after post ... funny, it somehow seems like much longer !!

      Maybe we could concede there are just one or two personality conflicts, a few pots and kettles, that any google link to any information opposing our own point of view is fanciful, and that insightful and unconstructive (which really should be 'not constructive' but anyway) is actually a reward system ?? The option to arguing about this is ; no more opposition ... no more conversation. Should we take a vote now, or wait until the Olympic pages start to subside ?? :)

      Cheers Mark. Mark C.

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    5. Ian Douglas

      Solution Architect

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      So I guess now you're saying that AGW is *not* an 'authorised or generally accepted theory'? Thanks for suggesting I lack sincerity though. Oh and also for suggesting that I don't know what words mean. Not really sure that this really advances your argument.

      And frankly, the 'they were mean to me first' excuse is something most people would expect from a child as opposed to an educated adult. I would have thought you were better than that.

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    6. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Ian Douglas

      Ian AGW is neither a theory nor is it authorised. Perhaps you should look up the meaning of what a scientific theory is?

      For want of a better description AGW is shorthand for the generally accepted interpretation of what the wieght of scientific evidence tells us in relation to recent climate data and measured CO2 levels. I note you choose to ignore the value laden definition of what orthodocy means.

      And I am not offering an "excuse" as you put it. I am pointing out that, on the evidence of the example you gave I pointed out ignorance where it was demonstrated. I do not accept your characterisation. Nor your right to judge my level of maturity.

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    7. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Ian Douglas

      And I'm still waiting for you to give me a specific example of a post that "respectfully questioned" AGW based on any actual understanding of the evidence.

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    8. Trevor Ellice

      Geologist

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      we keep waiting for the 'weight of evidence' to be articulated. The coincidence of rising CO2 levels and temp is (by the way) proof of nothing more than a coincidence.

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    9. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Trevor Ellice

      Apparently Mr Ellice is unaware of the science on this topic.

      It HAS been articulated Mr Ellice - it's just that you are either unaware of it or are being deliberately disingenous

      Perhaps you should try reading some

      Rosenzweig et al (2008). "Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change"
      Nature 453, 353-357.
      http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Rosenzweig_etal_1.pdf

      "Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring…

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    10. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Ian Douglas

      "Thanks for suggesting I lack sincerity though."

      Thanks for making it obvious.

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  32. Shirley Birney

    retiree

    Similar to Ian Plimer, there are a few contributors here who sound to me like chemistry dropouts. Plimer accuses governments of trying to tax “thin air,” however international guidelines for limiting all sorts of anthropogenic “thin airs” have been established for decades to protect air quality and to mitigate impacts on the climate.

    Internationally agreed criteria pollutants include restricted emission limits on CO2 precursor, CO, SO2, tropospheric ozone, CFCs, PMs, NOx, lead etc., etc (even…

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  33. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    It's time to jump in again with the document that proves that the"greenhouse gas effect" does not exist!!!
    To those that think that "climate scientists aka climatologists are the the only one that know about the long range weather/climate, they are wrong.
    Climatologists are temperature historians. Many climatologist do not believe in Mann-made global warming.
    The Hypotheses of the "greenhouse gas effect" is either proven or disproved with physics, therefore the real experts have to know about…

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    1. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Stand clear everyone, an avalanche of righteous indignation is here to save us all from the evil cabal of actual scientists.

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    2. Greg Staib

      Research Intern at CSIRO

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      This is clearly spam. No reasonable human could be expected to read that.

      After trashing the peer review system in the first paragraph it then moves on to explain the wonders of its own 'reviewed' study. Insightful much?

      This adds no value to the conversation.

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    3. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Greg Staib

      "This is clearly spam."

      25 pages of it. Do the editors have a position on this?

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    4. Shirley Birney

      retiree

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Incredible. The long ridiculed Nasif Nahle, a biologist with a hotmail address who "peer-reviews" his own nonsense? Owner of the one man show, Biology Cabinet, now a “professor?” Please.

      Impostor and lead author of “Slaying the Sky Dragon,” John O’Sullivan edits Berthold’s paper? http://hot-topic.co.nz/so-many-lies-and-the-liar-who-tells-them/

      http://www.desmogblog.com/affidavits-michael-mann-libel-suit-reveal-astonishing-facts-about-tim-ball-associate-john-o-sullivan

      And who among…

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  34. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    The AGW gang love/hate to attack the authors of anything that don't understand but they cannot provide the technical evidence.
    Where is the "creditable experiment that proves that the "greenhouse gas effect exist"?

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    1. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Spiro Vlachos

      There was never any established scientific concensus about N-rays

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N_ray

      Only an idiot or someone deliberately trying to misinform would compare a temporary single line of evidence susbequently and fairly rapidly debunked with a body of science established for more than a century (the Green House effect) and multiple lines of evidence establishing the reality of AGW

      http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/

      http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Human_Fingerprints_1024.jpg

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  35. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Mark Harrigan: Study some basic physics.
    Greenhouse effect doesn;t exist what could possibly be abrobing the IR that satellites see?
    This has nothing to do with GHGE.
    You' r proving my statement the ignorant open their mouths and show it.

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    1. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Er, okay Berthold. I guess my 8 years studying for a 1st class honours degree in Physics at University of Melbourne and PhD in physics counts for nothing against your incredible insights.

      I can see you have some special "powers" that the rest of us can only be dumbstruck by - or is that struck by how dumb? not sure ;)

      I, along with the vast majority of trained scientists who thought they actually knew something about basic physics are clearly in error.

      Perhaps you can also enlighten us…

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  36. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    This is the real Dr. Mark Harrigan (below)- the person posting as Mark Harrigan has made so many mistakes in basic physics that a high school student in general science could tell that he does not know what he is talking about.

    Dr. Mark Harrigan

    Dr. Mark Harrigan has extensive practical experience with the business of creativity and innovation having brought new products to the market in a wide variety of industries.
    He is an accomplished facilitator and workshop and seminar presenter. Voted…

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    1. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      "This is the real Dr. Mark Harrigan"

      i.e. here follows an ad hom extraordinaire.

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    2. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Er, thanks Berthold. That shameless piece of self promotion is about a decade out of date from my consulting days when I also taught at Swinburne. Thank you for reminding me of it :)

      As I have already acknowledged, it is clear you have some special "insights" into physics that the rest of the wolrd does not.

      I'm sure all of us here on TC wish to thank you for your Distinguishedly Erudite Locquacious Utterances Describing Exceptional Data posts

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  37. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    If the work done by John Tyndall provedthe"greenhouse gas effect" there would be evidence to that effect.
    John Tyndall stated that CO2 was an insignificant IR absorbing gas in the atmosphere because it was at so low a concentration.
    The work of Tyndall showing that certain gases absorb IR has been very important in physics and analytical chemistry.
    It does not prove the GHGE.

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    1. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      You asked for the experiment that proves the greenhouse effect exists. If it requires complex analysis in addition to the experimental measurements pioneered by Tyndal, then your question "Where is the "creditable experiment that proves that the "greenhouse gas effect exist" is just a strawman. Just because analysis is required in addition to experiment is insignificant.

      "John Tyndall stated that CO2 was an insignificant IR absorbing gas in the atmosphere"

      Do you have a citation for this and I don't mean science-denial blogs?

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    2. Shirley Birney

      retiree

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      What have the concentrations of CO2, 150 years ago to do with CO2 concentrations in the 21st century? What is the comparison? I'm just a layperson so please answer the question.

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    3. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Berthold Klein:

      "John Tyndall stated that CO2 was an insignificant IR absorbing gas in the atmosphere because it was at so low a concentration."

      I'm beginning to suspect that this is just a dishonest patchwork of words that Tyndall used but which are thrown together by dishonest people like Klein to mislead other people about what Tyndall actually said. i.e. Tyndall may have said CO2 was an "insignificant" gas by concentration but that's not the same as saying that its concentration is insignificant…

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    4. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      "Tyndall may have said CO2 was an "insignificant" gas by concentration but that's not the same as saying that its concentration is insignificant."

      I should, of course, have written:

      Tyndall may have said CO2 was an "insignificant" gas by concentration but that's not the same as saying that its IR absorption is insignificant.

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  38. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    “”You asked for the experiment that proves the greenhouse effect exists. If it requires complex analysis in addition to the experimental measurements pioneered by Tyndall, then your question "Where is the "creditable experiment that proves that the "greenhouse gas effect exist" is just a strawman. Just because analysis is required in addition to experiment is insignificant. "John Tyndall stated that CO2 was an insignificant IR absorbing gas in the atmosphere" Do you have a citation for this and I…

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    1. Greg Staib

      Research Intern at CSIRO

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      The so-called Petition Project is a terrible piece of support material for any supporting case.

      Not only has it been heavily criticised for its methodologies and format only 0.1% of Signers Have a Background in Climatology. That is only .1% of the individuals on the list of 30,000 signatures.

      The petition was so misleading that the National Academy of Science in the US issued a news release stating that the petition was not based on a review of the science of global climate change, nor were its signers experts in the field of climate science.

      It adds no value to the discussion and clearly highlights to a reader that there is no skepticism involved in selecting your evidence.

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    2. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Berthold - being a trace gas does not mean insignificance in effect. Ozone for example absorbs 97–99% of the Sun's medium-frequency ultraviolet light - and does this at a concentration of about 10ppm within the ozone layer. To them claim that the 'trace' aspect of CO2 renders it meaningless is based on appallingly bad assuptions. Being a 'trace gas" does not mean a slight increase in concentration cannot have an almost logarithmic increase in effect. Toxic gas concentrations are a good example of this principle.

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    3. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Berthold Klein: "Nov 22, 2011 – ... water vapor is by far the greatest “greenhouse gas,” per the work of John Tyndall in 1857! CO2 is a “trace gas” in air, insignificant by definition …"

      So, Tyndal didn't say "that CO2 was an insignificant IR absorbing gas in the atmosphere" and you or whoever it is you cite is just making it up.

      What a shonk you are.

      "It would be very embarrassing to have the Works of John Tyndall stating that (the IR absorption of) CO2 is Insignificant"

      Yes it would be, hypothetically speaking.

      "They have since removed this from the on-line works of Tyndall."

      How convenient, a citation that no longer exists.

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  39. Ron Chinchen

    Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)

    Am I missing the point and just too slow to pick up the cause of some of the dispute about greenhouse gasses.

    My understanding is that all gasses including water vapour cause some retention of heat in the system. If it didnt we would all be living on Snowball Earth once again. No one for example is disputing that water vapour is a strong greenhouse molecule and helps retain heat not only in the first atmosphere but also in the second (the Sea).

    I'm no scientist but my understanding is though…

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  40. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Chris: your not very observant. The lines presented are copied from John Tyndall's1857 text. This can be found at
    [[Climategate 2 | Behind The Black
    behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and.../climategate-2
    Nov 22, 2011 – ... water vapor is by far the greatest “greenhouse gas,” per the work of John Tyndall in 1857! CO2 is a “trace gas” in air, insignificant by definition …]]
    The fact that Wikipedia remove this sentence indicates that there is a conspiracy to hide the truth. You're to ignorant…

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    1. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Berthold - all the links you have provided thus far are to places where people make interpretations of Tyndall's work and words, but you have not gone back to the source - Tyndall himself. If you did that you might realise that his work on energy absorption by gasses was in 1859 not 1857.

      I recommend you do this - all his works are available free of charge here: http://archive.org/search.php?query=%28%22john%20tyndall%22%29%20OR%20%28%22tyndall%2C%20john%22%29%20AND%20mediatype%3Atexts

      The fact that "Wikipedia removed" anything is immaterial since it is not an original source and from what I can see of the paragraph you posted it was removed because it is poorly written and somewhat incorrect.

      Go read Tyndall.

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    2. Glenn Tamblyn

      Mechanical Engineer, Director

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Berthold

      "The above work of Tyndall shows IR absorption but does not demonstrated the concept of “back forcing” a key feature of the “greenhouse gas effect”

      True. However 50 years of observations of 'back forcing' do!

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    3. Berthold Klein

      Civil-Environmental engineer

      In reply to Glenn Tamblyn

      Glenn Tamblyn commented:
      "Berthold "The above work of Tyndall shows IR absorption but does not demonstrated the concept of “back forcing” a key feature of the “greenhouse gas effect” True. However 50 years of observations of 'back forcing' do!"
      Another AGW misunderstanding of scientific fact.
      Yes there is IR radiation coming down to the Earth, during the day most of it is from Solar radiation. At night this IR is from the accumulative IR radiation from all the atoms and molecules in…

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    4. Glenn Tamblyn

      Mechanical Engineer, Director

      In reply to Glenn Tamblyn

      Berthold

      I'll reply inline to avoid nesting the comments too deeply

      Well, at least you accept the existance of Back Radiation, and that it originates on the basis of the air temperature. However, you are compltely wrong when you ascribe it to all the gases in the atmosphere, including N2 & O2. As we have discussed before, those gases do not radiate in the regions we are discussing. Here is a graph obtained from the Antarctic, showing the spectrum of the observed back radiation
      http://scienceofdoom

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    5. Mark Chambers

      Business & Marketing Consultant

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Hi Berthold.

      It would appear that the majority of the scientific community believe that GHG is caused / exacerbated by carbon emissions and will result in climate change. I accept that there are those who believe otherwise and some have better arguments (or argue better) than others. It would also appear that those opposing the climate change argument (including the minority of scientists) need to prove their case with scientific evidence. This raises a number of questions, three of which include;…

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  41. Mark Harrigan

    Dr

    Berthold Klein's tin foil hat fanciful non-science delusions aside there has been much discussion on this thread about the (so called) Green House effect.
    The experimental evidence for the Green House effect is here
    http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/infrared_spectrum.jpg
    This has been shown to Mr Klein on numerous occassions but he has either failed to understand it or ignores it. He certainly has never refuted it.
    Allow me to explain
    A few facts are in order
    1) A real green house on…

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    1. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Oops, typo - I simply have to emply a good proof reader!

      Point 4) to be complete should read

      4) Molecules that aborb IR will either (a) share that energy with other molecules they collide with if the average time between collissions is much less than the re-emission time or (b) radiate it away isotropically if the mean decay time is less than the collission time

      and the subsequent points should be renumbered. Sorry :(

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    2. Mark Chambers

      Business & Marketing Consultant

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Hi Mark H.

      PERFECT !! The best discussion from here would be if Berthold Klein could address any of your points that he disagrees on with scientific reasoning. No additional information, and certainly no more opinions. We are all already very much aware of which side of the fence you're each on, hopefully Mr Klein's response will help the less scientifically qualified of us to better understand where the conjecture is. Thanks for the straightforward comment Mark, I look forward to Berthold responding in a like manner.

      Cheers. Mark C.

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    3. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Mark Chambers

      That's nice Mark C - but I think you are characterising things poorly if you think this is a matter of opinion.

      My explanation is based on actual evidence, established science and published papers which have been subject to peer review. It is in accord with every single national science body of credibility, the IPCC and the laws of physics.

      Mr Klein uses discredited blogs and non-science rants. He can believe what he likes. The facts say otherwise

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    4. Mark Chambers

      Business & Marketing Consultant

      In reply to Mark Harrigan

      Mark H.

      I'm really not sure what you mean by; "That's nice Mark C - but I think you are characterising things poorly if you think this is a matter of opinion … etc." At what point did I suggest that this was a matter of opinion ?? Was it my suggestion that your points be debated with 'scientific reasoning' or my reference to 'no more opinions' which failed to be specific enough evidence to the contrary ??

      I was in fact complimenting you on your post because 'rather than opinion' (or indeed…

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  42. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Mark Chamber, I'll be addressing the comments of Mark Harrigan later. There are 3 posts by others that have significant errors in science and who are the real authorities in the field of Climate Science.
    I should be showing who should be wearing the "tin Hats" the climate deniers or the fear mongering AGW's.
    As a working engineer this may take a few days before I complete all responses.

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    1. David Boxall

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Berthold Klein: "... fear mongering AGW's." Oh, dear.
      Those who rise above their fears, we might call heroes. What might we call one who, when concern is warranted, fails to realise it?

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    2. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Take all the time you need Berthold :)

      But there are two key pieces of experimental evidence that establish fairly solidly the existence of the Green House effect

      1) is the measured radiation spectrum emitted by the planet at TOA and received by the earth at the surface
      http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/infrared_spectrum.jpg

      They show, respectively, a "bite" taken out of the spectrum at TOA at precisely the wavelengths that GHG's absorb radiation - consistent with them stopping some…

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    3. Mark Chambers

      Business & Marketing Consultant

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Hi Berthold.

      When you do find time to respond to Mark Harrigan's comment (you know the one I mean) would you be kind enough to just address the physics, or at least, address the physics first. It may assist those of us with a less extensive education in physics to gain a better understanding of what the discrepancies are.

      Mr Harrigan has quoted and explained numerous laws of physics in a methodical order to support his point of view. If you are able to do the same it will serve to clarify your own position.

      Thanks Berthold. Mark C.

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  43. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Mark Harrigan I'd suggest that that you look up the Inter-Academic Council report of the total failure of the IPCC reports to represent any similarity of scentific integraty. Mark you just put on the "tin hat"

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    1. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Berthold, it is not just enough to "look up" that report, you need to actually read the contents.

      It says nothing like you suggest, praises the IPCC for its leadership in science, criticizes the administrative structure and not being what is required to lead the contemporary climate discussions in an authoritative way.

      The report was prepared at the request of the UN and was prepared with the cooperation of the IPCC itself. It focuses not on the science, but on the administration of the organisation. It is free to download and read.

      Perhaps you should.

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    2. Berthold Klein

      Civil-Environmental engineer

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      This is just the tip of the iceburg of corruptin in the UN& NAS-more to come!
      InterAcademy Council
      of Sciences and the Academy of Sciences for the
      Developing World (TWAS)—and representatives
      of the IAP: The Global Network of Science Academies,
      the International Council of Academies of
      Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS),
      and the InterAcademy Medical Panel (IAMP) of
      medical academies. Official observers on the IAC
      Board include the presidents of the International
      Council for…

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  44. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects
    Within The Frame Of Physics
    Version 4.0 (January 6, 2009)
    replaces Version 1.0 (July 7, 2007) and later
    Gerhard Gerlich
    Institute fur Mathematische Physik
    Technische Universitat Carolo-Wilhelmina zu Braunschweig
    Mendelssohnstrae 3
    D-38106 Braunschweig
    Federal Republic of Germany
    g.gerlich@tu-bs.de
    Ralf D. Tscheuschner
    Postfach 60 27 62
    D-22237 Hamburg
    Federal Republic of Germany
    ralfd@na-net.ornl.gov

    Abstract

    The atmospheric…

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    1. Berthold Klein

      Civil-Environmental engineer

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      The abstrate above was on the clipboard but is refered to below.

      Mark Chambers commented:

      "Hi Berthold. When you do find time to respond to Mark Harrigan's comment (you know the one I mean) would you be kind enough to just address the physics, or at least, address the physics first. It may assist those of us with a less extensive education in physics to gain a better understanding of what the discrepancies are. Mr Harrigan has quoted and explained numerous laws of physics in a methodical order…

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    2. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S021797921005555X

      "
      In this journal, Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf D. Tscheuschner claim to have falsified the existence of an atmospheric greenhouse effect.1 Here, we show that their methods, logic, and conclusions are in error. Their most significant errors include trying to apply the Clausius statement of the Second Law of Thermodynamics to only one side of a heat transfer process rather than the entire process, and systematically ignoring most non…

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    3. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      "International Journal of Modern Physics B"

      Impact Factor 2011: 0.324

      Yawn.

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  45. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Mark Harrigan you did not address the fact that the Stefan-Boltzman equations do not apply to a"gray body" namely Earth.
    Here is the G&T reply which was on the next page.

    REPLY TO "COMMENT ON 'FALSIFICATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECTS WITHIN THE FRAME OF PHYSICS' BY JOSHUA B. HALPERN, CHRISTOPHER M. COLOSE, CHRIS HO-STUART, JOEL D. SHORE, ARTHUR P. SMITH, JÖRG ZIMMERMANN"

    GERHARD GERLICH
    Institut für Mathematische Physik, Technische Universität Carolo-Wilhelmina, Mendelssohnstra…

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    1. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Berthold - I'm afraid you lack some basic understanding. Treating the earth as a grey body would mean the surface temperature would be LOWER than the black body calculation shows ans hence the Greenhouse effect would have to be STRONGER.

      So you still have not offered a plausible and sound according to the laws of physics reason why (a) the temperature of thre planet is much higher that it would be without the GH effect and (b) an explanation for the measured spectrum at the surface and TOA consistent…

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  46. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    This is posted above but it's important enough to post again.

    Glenn Tamblyn commented:
    "Berthold "The above work of Tyndall shows IR absorption but does not demonstrated the concept of “back forcing” a key feature of the “greenhouse gas effect” True. However 50 years of observations of 'back forcing' do!"
    Another AGW misunderstanding of scientific fact.
    Yes there is IR radiation coming down to the Earth, during the day most of it is from Solar radiation. At night this IR is from the…

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  47. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Glenn Tamblyn commented:
    "Berthold I'll reply inline to avoid nesting the comments too deeply Well, at least you accept the existence of Back Radiation, and that it originates on the basis of the air temperature. However, you are completely wrong when you ascribe it to all the gases in the atmosphere, including N2 & O2. As we have discussed before, those gases do not radiate in the regions we are discussing. Here is a graph obtained from the Antarctic, showing the spectrum of the observed back…

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  48. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Mark Chamber you have asked some very important questions. I plan to respond to each one separatly as I will be providing backup information. Here is a saying from Mark Twain which is very applicable to this problem.
    "It is easier to fool people....than to convince them that they have been fooled"....Mark Twain
    [when they have been fooled about almost everything....it becomes very difficult to 'unfool' them]

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  49. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Mark Chambers: in your list of questions you asked if there is an experiment that shows that the "greenhouse gas effect "does not exist. Here is the reference
    There is an experiment that proves that the Greenhouse gas effect does not exist. This experiment which has been technologally reviewed by Ph.D physicists (at least 4). Ph.D. Chemical engineers (at least 2 at last count) and others Ph. D’s in other fields The experiment is found on the web-site http:// www.slayingtheskydragon.com click on…

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  50. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Matthew Albrecht on the errors of Dr.Roy Spencer:
    When I first read Dr.Spencer's Hypotheses, it almost sounded logical except there are the first and second laws of thermodynamics they are laws.
    I E-mail Dr. Spencer to show us experimental data proving his Hypothese. In the 2 years since the Hypothese has been on the web not one digit of data has appeared.The experiment should be able to be performed at the university where he is a professor. Here is a paper with reference to other paper that…

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    1. Matthew Albrecht

      Postdoctoral Researcher at Curtin University

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      What a pile of verbose nonsense. A combination of facts, mistakes, logical inconsistences, straw men and non-sequiturs. You need to re write this in a couple of sentences making your point more clear.

      "Here is a paper with reference to other paper that show Dr. Spencer is wrong." - I saw no paper nor any other paper. All I saw was a rambling blog post.

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    2. Mark Harrigan

      Dr

      In reply to Berthold Klein

      Utter rubbish

      The temperature IN space is close to "absolute zero" because any object there will radiate heat until it cools to that point. This is for objects not exposed to direct sunlight. In Earth orbit, the temperature of OBJECTS IN sunlight can rise to 120°C/ 250°F. The actual temperature IN space is about 3°K (-270°C or three degrees Celsius above Absolute Zero). This is because of the Cosmic background radiation.

      The temperature OF space is meaningless (but irrelevant to the issue…

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  51. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer

    Matthew Albrecht commented:

    "What a pile of verbose nonsense. A combination of facts, mistakes, logical inconsistences, straw men and non-sequiturs. You need to re write this in a couple of sentences making your point more clear. "Here is a paper with reference to other paper that show Dr. Spencer is wrong." - I saw no paper nor any other paper. All I saw was a rambling blog post."

    Thank you for the recommendation and endorsment of real science.
    Dr. Spencer did not provide any data so his blog is an unproven Hypotheses.

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  52. Berthold Klein

    Civil-Environmental engineer


    Group: ENVIRONMENT ACTIVIST

    Discussion: U.S. Heat Waves of 2011 Linked Directly to Man-Made Climate Change

    I take exception to such statements as 'there is no other way'. Has the author of the article been living in a bubble. During the past few years the Arctic Jet Stream has been very erratic in its' behaviour sweeping much further south than normal. This has caused much interference in the normal weather patterns of the northern hemisphere, very heavy snowfalls in the last 3 out of…

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