From time to time, new technologies are proposed to help us use even more of Australia’s abundant coal.
Many of these technologies are designed to reduce emissions, either by drying the coal or capturing its emissions as it is burned. Other forms convert coal to cleaner burning fuels, such as synthetic diesel or methane.
For brown coal power stations, use of this technology promises to lower power station CO₂ emission levels to 0.8 or lower (from the 1.2 tonnes of CO₂ per MWh put out by a typical brown coal operation). The vision being put forward by government and industry on the back of this promise is that this technology could help to increase our exports. Apart from the promised economic benefit, how real is the promise of lower levels of CO₂?
Bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have suggested we need to limit atmospheric CO₂ concentrations to around 450ppm if we are to avoid dangerous climate change. At current CO₂ emission rates, we could reach this level by 2040, or even earlier if the global trend towards coal continues. Since 2000, global coal consumption has increased by 50%, while in China consumption has more than doubled.
Australia is the world’s largest exporter of coal. Government figures say brown coal resources in Victoria are over 400 billion tonnes; 65 billion tonnes is located in the Latrobe Valley with the economically recoverable portion, the reserves of the resource, estimated to be around 33 billion tonnes. If consumed today, Victoria’s coal resources alone could emit sufficient CO₂ to reach the IPCC target of 450 ppm. The reserves of the Latrobe Valley alone have the potential to contribute at least two years’ worth of global CO₂ emissions.
Because it can take more than 50 years to reduce the CO₂ emitted to the atmosphere by a factor of 2 (and around 500 years by a factor of 4), emitting the same amount of CO₂ more slowly via lower-emitting technology is likely to make little difference to the climate change problem since it is the total amount in the atmosphere that matters.
Globally, the potential to increase atmospheric CO₂ emissions is even greater. Despite the claims of peak oil and declining reserves of fossil fuels, remaining reserves are sufficient to drive atmospheric CO₂ concentrations to unprecedented levels. One estimate of the combined global fossil fuel reserves suggests they are equivalent to almost 100 years supply at the current rate of consumption. When estimates of the total resource base are added, this jumps to more than 1000 years, due primarily to the global resource of black coal.
A further problem we face is the increase in energy consumption which results from population growth. In Victoria, for example, population is expected to grow from 5.6 million to 7.3 million over the next 20 years. To maintain CO₂ emission reductions, technological development and its deployment must keep pace with changes in demand. This is made more challenging by the very long operational life of much of this technology.
One benefit of low emission technology is that it might give us the time to further develop the zero-CO₂-emitting energy technologies that we must ultimately use, particularly those based on renewable energy. In a financially constrained world, where giving money to one project means taking it from another, achieving the right balance between these two approaches is no easy task. Many of the newer renewable technologies on offer are yet to be used on a large scale, and much of the technology being proposed for coal, particularly CO₂ capture and storage, is still under development, or at best, yet to be demonstrated commercially.
Unless the push to develop cleaner coal is balanced by a greater push to implement zero emission renewable energy technologies, the risks associated with climate change will continue to grow.
John Newlands
tree changer
I wonder if the proposed brown coal exports are pre-positioning by the Baillieu government to keep their power stations after carbon tax. The threat being that the coal will be burned away, here or overseas. I am appalled that Federal energy minister Ferguson has lent support given that Australia is supposedly committed to global emissions reductions.
Recently the Federal govt paid nearly $1bn in compensation to brown coal burners with Hazelwood and Loy Yang each getting around $300m if I recall…
Read moreDavid Arthur
n/a
If there was even a chance that CCS might work, you'd think that coal-mining companies would have an interest in CCS R&D succeeding. You might then expect that the aforementioned companies might invest in the only technology that can possibly ensure the long-term future of their businesses.
Have they invested a cent in CCS R&D? If not, then surely that tells us that the hard-nosed assessment is that CCS is a boondoggle - at best.
Craig Read
logged in via Twitter
There has been a fair amount of study into CCS, and it can work.
The problem is, it's so energy intensive to do it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage
"Capturing and compressing CO2 may increase the fuel needs of a coal-fired CCS plant by 25%-40%."
We don't have the excess power to make up that sort of short-fall, and probably don't even have plans to build enough extra capacity to make it up. And these things aren't built over night.
And that's all assuming that we want to stick with coal for the long term. If we spend any money building new capacity, you'd want to be sure we're going to still be using it in 40-50 years time.
Michael James
Research scientist
It is considerably worse than that. In addition to the energy required to capture the CO2, the capital cost of the plant is humungous. It is even worse if an existing plant is retrofitted. In fact the only CCS on a working coal generator (Mountaineer in US) cost about $100M but captures a mere 1.5% of its output. Then there is the "burial" of the CO2 which will involve transport. A 20MW pilot plant in Germany (Schwarze Pumpe) built as a demonstration CCS ended up releasing the captured gas back into the atmosphere because the local community successfully fought against the local burial. The UK first demonstration plant stalled late last year due to estimated massive cost over-runs.
But the UK experience only confirms what has been obvious for a long time. I wrote a detailed analysis:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/10/30/ccs-institute-comes-clean-on-clean-coal/
Friday, 30 October 2009
CCS Institute comes clean on clean coal
by Michael James
Michael James
Research scientist
Here is the story on the cancellation of the UK CCS:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-15371258
19 October 2011
Longannet carbon capture scheme scrapped
Peter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
Interesting piece ... must admit to be a tad horrified at the idea of actually exporting brown coal though... always was a third rate fuel source from memory.
I did however hear something useful about brown coal a few months back - that it acted as a blanket on subterranean heat. This could have some merit regarding geothermal energy production.
Has anyone come across further information on this research? Would be nice to find something useful to do with the stuff.
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
I live in the Hunter Valley - a coal mining area. I see formerly productive lands, ruined by mining. I see water courses with their backs broken when underground mines crack their beds. I see toxic water from mines polluting rivers. I see fresh water aquifers polluted when exploration drilling brings, from lower aquifers, water that's been in contact with coal for millions of years. Now, we have coal seam gas prospectors.
Quite apart from concerns about the atmosphere, is the resource worth alienating productive land and potable water?
Seamus Gardiner
Citizen
"Despite the claims of peak oil and declining reserves of fossil fuels, remaining reserves are sufficient to drive atmospheric CO₂ concentrations to unprecedented levels"
Wouldn't they actually be precedented levels? I am not a botanist but I'm assuming that when these deposits of coal/natural gas/oil were first laid down the carbon contained within them was extracted from the atmosphere. Which would entail that the CO2 in the atmosphere pre-botany would be the same as if we extracted and burnt all the available carboniferous deposits in the crust.
Before you lay into me about being a climate change denier (I'm not). I'm assuming, and please correct me if I'm wrong, that CO2 levels in the atmosphere if we burnt all fossil fuels would be the same (all things being equal) as the CO2 levels before plants first formed carboniferous deposits. If so, what was the climate before the carboniferous period and would that reflect the climate if we burnt all fossil fuels now?
Peter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
Not really Sean ... took a few million years to build up all that coal... we're burning it at a rapid rate of knots ... so we are releasing a few million years' worth of accumulated C over a few hundred.
Mark Duffett
logged in via Facebook
Sean, though the rationale you give is oversimplified (it's more a dynamic equilibrium on geological time scales, rather than the single event you imply), you're essentially correct, and the article isn't, strictly speaking. There are periods in the geological record that indicate atmospheric CO2 to have been in the thousands of ppm range (as opposed to ~400 now). What does seem to be unprecedented even on geological time scales is the RATE at which CO2 is increasing, and that's what causes the problems, because it doesn't allow time for adaptation.
David Arthur
n/a
Gday Sean, the issue of rates of knots is also the issues of rates of metres of sea level rise.
To have even a hope of avoiding large-scale melting of West Antarctic and Greenland icecaps over the next millenium (>~20 metres of sea level rise), we need to get atmospheric CO2 back to less than 350 ppm as rapidly as we can.
Thereafter, to avoid renewed glaciation, our heirs and successors will do well to not let atmospheric CO2 fall to much less than 300 ppm.
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Sean Parker: "I'm assuming, and please correct me if I'm wrong, that CO2 levels in the atmosphere if we burnt all fossil fuels would be the same (all things being equal) as the CO2 levels before plants first formed carboniferous deposits."
Consider yourself corrected. Volcanoes release carbon dioxide. If all fossil carbon was released into the atmosphere then, added to that contributed by volcanoes, atmospheric carbon dioxide would indeed reach unprecedented levels.
Mark Duffett
logged in via Facebook
I should have added that many of those periods of thousands of ppm CO2 (such as large parts of the Cretaceous) were contemporaneous with large amounts of biomass, to emphasise that it's not as simple as 'burn all fossil fuel = pre-plant CO2 levels'.
Seamus Gardiner
Citizen
Thanks Mark,
I understand that my argument is very simplistic and there are other confounding factors at play. I see that the rate of return of carbon to the atmosphere is an issue, especially where continued habitation and vertebrate adaptation is concerned (including humans of course).
My musing really relates to how habitable the earth will actually be if we burn all accessible fossil fuels. My guess would be slightly better than the conditions in the pre-carboniferous period (as existing plant life now will still store some carbon that was free in the pre-botanical period). Would these conditions still sustain vertebrates... or would ocean acidity and temperature rise effectively remove higher order phyla.
Mark Duffett
logged in via Facebook
'how habitable the earth will actually be if we burn all accessible fossil fuels'
I'm sure this question has been examined somewhere, sorry I don't have time to chase it up now. But when thinking about carbon on Earth, don't forget about limestone - there is far more CO2 locked up in carbonates (several orders of magnitude IIRC) than in fossil fuels. If you really want to think about scary scenarios, imagine a mechanism for increasing the acidity of rainfall...
Mark Duffett
logged in via Facebook
No. CO2 emission from volcanoes is largely, at least in the long term, balanced by CO2 going down subduction zones and other natural geological sequestration.
http://www.columbia.edu/~vjd1/carbon.htm for a primer on this stuff
Seamus Gardiner
Citizen
Thanks Mark...I've probably answered my own question. I am looking at a graph on: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html
I see that in the Jurassic and cretaceous periods CO2 was elevated to around 2000 ppm and the average global temperature was above 20 degrees (as distinct from 12 degrees now and at the end of the carboniferous period).
What process would have caused the CO2 to drop from the Jurassic period to today. I understand how CO2 levels can rise in the atmosphere due to burning fossil fuels, volcanic activity etc. But what accounts for the drop in CO2 by quite an amount for the jurassic/cretaceous to today. Is it a case of more land area and more plants... or is it not that simple.
Seamus Gardiner
Citizen
Cool, Thanks David.
Seamus Gardiner
Citizen
Cool, Thanks David.
Seamus Gardiner
Citizen
Thanks Mark and David I've just read about this. i was puzzled about the decline in CO2 since the Jurassic. Clearly CO2 levels are subject to a variety of modifying factors.
All we have to is wait a few million years for the CO2 we've released to be sequestered...assuming there isn't major tectonic activity first......
David Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Mark Duffett: "CO2 emission from volcanoes is largely, at least in the long term, balanced by CO2 going down subduction zones and other natural geological sequestration."
So interfering with the cycle by, for example, radically increasing the release of fossil carbon and reducing the capacity of the biosphere to remove it from the atmosphere (forest clearing, ocean acidification) might not be good? At least, in the short term (a few million years).
Sean Lamb
Science Denier
Sean, what all your interlocutors here knows but refuse to reveal to you that release and uptake of CO2 in the oceans are probably the bigger driver than sequestering into fossil carbon
Look at this graph
Read morehttp://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/PageMill_Images/image277.gif
Before the Jurassic period CO2 levels were low. comparable to today, and temperatures were also low.
Now assuming there were no race of aliens digging up coal and burning it on the cusp of Jurassic period there is only one realistic…
Peter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
That's right Sean (the woolly one) ... all these liars... making stuff up ... blaming CO2 when obviously it's just the sun isn't it? And the hotter sun gives us more CO2 not the other way round. Why don't they tell us this Sean? Why do they try and trick us into believing that CO2 is bad for us?
It's obvious isn't it? ... they are being paid to tell us lies ... paid by the communists at the UN the World Bank and the IPCC who want to redistribute the world's wealth, make us stop our economy…
Read moreSean Lamb
Science Denier
Blah Blah Blah.
The fact is the UN, the World Bank and IPCC all agree that the big leap in CO2 levels in Jurassic period was the result of CO2 release from the ocean caused by temperature rise. It is just basic inescapable science.
The only dispute is the extent of positive feedbacks: temperature rise causing CO2 release causing further temperature rises.
Dunno why you guys wanted to conceal this from Sean. Why the constant dishonesty in debate?
Peter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
"Dunno why you guys wanted to conceal this from Sean. Why the constant dishonesty in debate?"
But Sean you DO know ... it's the conspiracy ... the Great Plot ...The Climate Scam outlined above - you know it's the only possible explanation for all the lies.
Now read what I sent you - it's even from the same source as your graph - so I assume it's not part of this ingenuous web of lies.
Seamus Gardiner
Citizen
G'day Peter,
Yeah I read that link a little earlier, I found it when I was discussing co2 variability with Mark Duffett. It filled in the gaps for me. An interesting read and definitely shows how fluid and dynamic co2 levels are over geological timescales. It's been an illuminating discussion today. Cheers.. The non woolly Sean.
Lincoln Fung
Economist
While it would be aspiring to be zero emissions, is that realistic in the sense to balance the costs and benefits of that approach and alternative emissions scenarios?
How catastrophic would that be for different levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and what the likelihood of those catastrophies to occur?
What are the costs of zero emissions?
David Arthur
n/a
Gday Lincoln,
In 1996 when the "policy-makers" (economists and politicians, generally non-cogniscent regarding science) decided to limit warming to 2 deg C, this was code for atmospheric CO2 to not exceed 550 ppm; that is, climate sensitivity (the temperature rise due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2) was thought to be around 2 deg C.
By early this decade, further work showed that climate sensitivity is closer to 3 deg C than 2, so the upper limit of atmospheric CO2 was decreased to 450 ppm…
Read moreDavid Boxall
logged in via Facebook
Lincoln Fung: "What are the costs of zero emissions?"
The ZCA2020 report gives some insight: http://media.beyondzeroemissions.org/ZCA2020_Stationary_Energy_Report_v1.pdf
Tim Scanlon
Author and Scientist
I like the fact that we are discussing possible technology that will marginally reduce emissions. As opposed to discussing a switch to technologies that are available now, that work, that will dramatically reduce emissions.
Also, coal mining is fantastic for the surrounding environment. I completely approve.
/sarcasm.
Fred Pribac
logged in via email @internode.on.net
Come on Tim, try not to be so un-Australian! The brown coal mining industry clearly only have the societal greater good at heart.
I for one will give them my full in-kind, social media usage, emissions reduction support by pledging to only use san serif fonts from this day hence.
Fred Pribac
logged in via email @internode.on.net
/more sarcasm
wilma western
logged in via email @bigpond.com
How did the commentary get so off-track? The article was about the possibility and impacts of so-called "clean coal" technologies,with relevant info like CCS requiring lots of energy to work and that's regardless of its economics and environmental impacts.Latrobe Valley workers are not impressed by the pipe dreams of the carpetbaggers who want cheap brown coal allocations and tout their pilot plants or lab results as justification, The workers and the previous govt have heard it all before. One entrepreneur…
Read moreLuke Weston
Physicist / electronic engineer
When brown coal with a relatively high water content is burned, less thermal energy is recovered because some of that thermal energy goes into the specific heat of the water and the latent heat of vaporisation of the water.
When brown coal is dried, how much additional thermal energy is yielded, compared to coal without drying, per tonne of coal?
When brown coal with a relatively high water content is dried, how much thermal energy input is required to dry one tonne of coal?
Ostensibly…
Read moreAlex Cannara
logged in via Facebook
Too bad that nothing done now via turning off combustion will prevent serious problems for hundreds of millions around the world who had little to do with the emissions now in air & sea.
And, the ~40% of all human-emitted CO2 being in the oceans has brought them half way to stoppage of the sea food chains that are based on calcifying organisms (plankton, etc.).
This is likely the nearest & biggest tragic event and the one we have the least ability to correct While it's fun for some to argue…
Read moreDaryl Deal
retired
Clean coal, is a complete myth, thanks to the second law of thermodynamics and the "Carnot Cycle".
In addition, we have a massive yet to be solved problem of safe long term waste disposal of both the toxic coal fly ash and the carbon capture material as well.
Clean coal, is not the panacea, it is made out to be, for it has far too many fatal waste disposal flaws, waiting to bite the taxpayers posterior, when they least expect it. That is, it will bite the hand that feeds and we are using a government mandate to extend the life of a fatal failed lethal business model.
In short, the old nineteenth century idea of burning coal to produce cheap energy, is well past it's best use by date of 1954.
We live in a finite world, where there is no free lunch and every action we do now, has both present and future consequences.
Alex Cannara
logged in via Facebook
Very true, Daryl, and research in the US has shown that even if we could sequester all CO2 emissions economically, there's at most room in the US underground spaces for 60% present emissions.
The other reality that isn't explained is that the combustion industry is unique in being able to sell half a product. Hydrocarbons are useless without free Oxygen. Just try to light a match in Titan's methane/ethane atmosphere!
Read more;]
So, even if CO2 sequestration could last as long as coal/oil/gas, the…
Jess Louise
Executive
There is no doubt we need to find an enviro friendly solution to fossil fuels, but we need to look long term NOT bandaid.
At present, the coal seam gas debate particularly highlights this - with Gas companies, and the Gov, only too quick to jump at a potential solution without undertaking the full research. Gas companies attempt to paint the picture that CSG is a good move for AU..but Hunter Valley Protection Alliance's YouTube vids expose the 'real truths' about CSG
http://www.youtube.com/user/thehvpa?feature=results_main