Making sense of the polls
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This week’s Newspoll had Labor leading by a 52-48 margin, a 2% swing to the Coalition. Morgan’s press release has Labor leading by 56-44, a 1.5% swing to Labor. However, Morgan has been using respondent-allocated…
There have been five polls taken in the last ten days, following the shooting down of MH17 on Friday 18 July. Prior to MH17, polls showed Labor leading by about a 54-46 margin. In the immediate aftermath…
Note: Many updates have been added in the sections below the carbon tax repeal section on Thursday 24 July. Last Thursday 17 July, the Coalition finally succeeded in repealing the carbon tax, established…
Elections will be held by early 2015 in the eastern seaboard states of Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. All three states currently have first-term Coalition governments. On current polling, there…
Since the budget, we have only had the three regular polls from Essential, Newspoll and Morgan. While Essential has increased to a Labor Two Party Preferred (2PP) lead of 54-46, the other two polls have…
We had five polls released this week following the May 13 Budget. Below is the table of poll results, which shows Labor gaining strongly in Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan. The Coalition’s two strongest polls…
This week we have had five polls, released from Saturday night to Tuesday afternoon. All show Labor ahead by at least a 52-48 margin, and all except Essential show a swing to Labor. The Coalition primary…
At the WA Senate re-election held on 5 April, the total major party vote was less than 60%, with the combined Liberal/National vote at 37.1%, down 7.2%, while Labor got a dire 21.5%, down 5.1%. The Greens…
Monday’s Nielsen poll had the Greens at 17%, up 5% on the March Nielsen. This is apparently the highest level of Greens support that either Nielsen or Newspoll has ever recorded. The Nielsen poll also…
Since election night, almost 32,000 postal votes have been added to the WA Senate count. When we look at the results by electorates where postals have been counted, we find that the Liberals are doing…