Making sense of the polls
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A ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted Thursday from a sample of 2390, has Labor leading by 52-48, a one point gain for the Coalition since the previous Sky News ReachTEL, just after the May budget. Assuming…
By-elections occurred today for the US House in two Republican-held seats: Georgia’s sixth Congressional District (CD) and South Carolina’s fifth CD. In SC’s fifth, Democrat Archie Parnell almost pulled…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1790, has Labor leading by 53-47, unchanged since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes are 37% Labor (up 1), 36% Coalition…
The Conservatives lost their majority last Thursday 8 June in an election that did not have to be held until May 2020. While this outcome was shocking for the Conservatives, it would have been even worse…
At the UK general election held Thursday, the Conservatives lost their majority. With all 650 seats declared, the Conservatives won 318 seats (down 13 since the 2015 election), Labour 262 (up 30), the…
The UK general election will be held in two days, on Thursday 8 June. Polls close at 10pm local time (7am Friday Melbourne time). An exit poll will be released once polls close that will give the estimated…
This week’s Newspoll, conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1655, is completely unchanged on voting intentions since last fortnight’s post-budget Newspoll. Labor leads 53-47, from primary votes…
With two weeks to go until the 8 June UK general election, current polls give the Conservatives about 45%, followed by Labour on 34%, the Liberal Democrats on 8%, and the UK Independence Party has fallen…
Donald Trump had never run for a political office before becoming President. Given the rush of Trump scandals in the two weeks since Trump fired FBI director James Comey, Congressional Republicans probably…
After the release of the Federal budget on Tuesday night, much of the political commentariat thought that the budget would be popular, and predicted a lift for the Coalition in the post-budget polls. Graham…