Abyei – a territory roughly the size of Jamaica – is being contested by two countries, Sudan and South Sudan. Abyei, which covers just over 10,000km², is under special administrative status following the terms of a 2005 peace agreement between the two countries.
The disagreement has led to increasingly violent inter-communal tensions. Although the roots of these stretch back decades, they present a complex challenge, particularly in a context where the state lacks the capacity to enforce the rule of law impartially. But, in my view, the South Sudanese national government has the tools to help alleviate these tensions in the near term.
I have researched the political and security situation in Sudan and South Sudan for more than two decades and, as representatives from all sides confirm, the heart of the current conflict lies in overlapping territorial claims.
Important region
Abyei is both geographically and culturally significant.
It’s strategically positioned in a resource-rich and fertile area between Sudan and South Sudan that is also important for its transport links. Abyei is a bustling regional trading hub. Although there is only one producing oilfield in Abyei and production is declining, the region is thought to have vast untapped resources.
Abyei is deeply embedded in the history of the Ngok Dinka community, who are among the northernmost Dinka populations. The Dinka represent the predominant ethnolinguistic group in South Sudan, a country that emerged as the world’s newest nation in 2011.
Abyei’s ownership is also contested by the Arabic Misseriya from the north, indigenous to the current Sudanese territory.
These contestations have resulted in the region being plagued by recurrent conflicts, marking a history of turmoil in Abyei dating back more than a century.
Efforts at resolution
In an effort to resolve the dispute over Abyei’s sovereignty, negotiations held between the Sudanese government and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement that began in 2002 proposed a referendum to decide if Abyei should become part of Sudan or South Sudan. Such a referendum would have been held in parallel with the South Sudanese independence referendum in 2011.
The referendum on Abyei, however, has yet to happen. This is largely due to disagreements over voter eligibility. The nomadic lifestyle of the Misseriya groups has also complicated matters.
To address recurrent tensions, the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei was established in 2011. It was tasked with maintaining peace in the contested region. Over a decade later, however, little has changed.
Since 2022, contestations over Abyei have been complicated by renewed clashes between the Ngok and another Dinka sub-group, the Twic Dinka, from the south.
Map of Abyei
The Ngok Dinka assert their rights to the whole territory of what is known as the “Abyei Box”. This is the current internationally recognised form of Abyei, which was established based on the findings of the Abyei Boundary Commission. The commission was formed from the North-South peace talks of the mid-2000s.
Conversely, the Twic Dinka argue that their ancestral lands extend further north to the River Kiir, suggesting a natural demarcation line between their territory and that of the Ngok Dinka. The Twic contend that the Ngok Dinka’s presence south of the river had been a result of displacement caused by historic hostilities with the Misseriya during Sudan’s civil war in the 1980s and 1990s.
The drivers of conflict
Following the conclusion of the South Sudanese civil war in 2018 and the formation of a power-sharing government, tensions escalated in the Abyei region. This was partly due to grievances from Twic politicians who felt overlooked for significant roles in the national government and also in the state government of Warrap, where Twic county falls. Income from the bustling Aneek market in south Abyei was seen as a potential remedy for these grievances.
However, when the Abyei administration began land demarcation efforts in February 2022, conflict erupted. This resulted in several deaths and the destruction of Aneek market.
Since then, the area has remained tense, with outbreaks of violence involving organised assaults or clashes between armed youth factions.
This situation has been further exacerbated by the involvement of Bul Nuer militias.
One faction of militias was displaced from their native Mayom county in Unity State, in South Sudan’s north, by intense flooding. They eventually settled in Twic county, in Warrap state, in areas close to the Abyei border.
Concurrently, political disputes between other factions of Bul Nuer militias with the local government of Mayom county escalated to violent clashes. This forced the militias to flee Unity State. They, too, settled in Twic county.
This complicated an already tense situation.
To address the escalating violence in Twic county and Abyei, South Sudan President Salva Kiir ordered the expulsion of Bul Nuer militia members from Warrap state, and their resettlement in other states outside Warrap and Abyei. However, the implementation of this decree has faced significant challenges.
Since settling in Twic county in 2022, many Bul Nuer families have formed marital alliances with Twic families, integrating them into the community. This integration led to widespread protests from the Twic against Kiir’s decree. As a result, the Bul Nuer militias have remained in the area.
The presence of these militias has fuelled distrust among the Ngok community.
This tension boiled over in early February 2024 when minor altercations involving Ngok, Twic and Bul Nuer youths escalated into a larger conflict, resulting in the loss of more than 50 lives.
Addressing these deep-seated inter-communal tensions, with roots stretching back decades, presents a complex challenge particularly in a context where the state lacks capacity to enforce laws impartially.
What next?
Despite these difficulties, the South Sudandese national government has the tools to help alleviate these tensions in the near term.
One significant area of ambiguity that has contributed to ongoing disputes is the undefined border status between Twic and Abyei.
The government’s strategy has been to avoid making definitive statements regarding this border. This is in an effort to prevent alienating any community and to curb conflict escalation.
However, considering the intensification of tensions over the past two years, it may be prudent to reconsider this approach and seek a more definitive resolution to the border issue. Clarifying the border between Twic county and Abyei could significantly undermine the influence of political myths and propaganda used to raise ethnic distrust.
Initiating political dialogue that involves both Ngok and Twic leaders, as well as engaging with the youth who have been both instigators and casualties of the conflict, could facilitate this process of demystification.
While achieving a long-term resolution to the conflict around Abyei amid socio-economic challenges remains an elusive goal, adopting pragmatic approaches to manage the current conflict is essential for maintaining peace in the region. Such efforts would help lay the groundwork for long-term stability.