Expat workers have cost Australia $450 million in HECS

Australian university graduates who move overseas to work for long periods have deprived the country of about $450 million in unpaid HECS debts since the payment scheme was introduced in 1989, according to a new study. An investigation by Australian National University academics Bruce Chapman – who…

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The HECS black hole has reached $450 million. AAP/Luis Enrique Ascui

Australian university graduates who move overseas to work for long periods have deprived the country of about $450 million in unpaid HECS debts since the payment scheme was introduced in 1989, according to a new study.

An investigation by Australian National University academics Bruce Chapman – who designed the HECS scheme – and Tim Higgins has found that at the current estimated rate, the amount of cumulative forgone revenue will soon top $1 billion.

The authors said that because there was so little data about the number of graduates who had moved overseas, or how long they had stayed there to work, they had decided to be “conservative in the application of the modelling so that the figures we are prepared to report can be considered to be understatements of the true forgone HECS collection”.

There was a range of ways the Australian Government could recover the money, the authors said in their study, “Stop the Boats! The Costs of Unpaid HECS Debts from Graduates Going Overseas”.

It could agree with other countries to use their internal revenue services to collect the debts with the use of the same income-contingent parameters in force in Australia. “But this seems to be fanciful given that only England, New Zealand, Hungary and South Africa currently have income tax-based student loan collection systems, although many other countries seem likely to move in this direction over time,” they said.

Alternatively, Australia could incorporate HECS as well as income tax into its mutual income tax agreements with other countries. Here again, the transactions costs would be high given the amounts of money involved.

The most feasible proposal, the authors said, would be to require students who signed a HECS debt obligation contract to repay the minimum annual debt in the event that they were overseas beyond a short period, for example six months. This would amount to about $1900 per year – “a small sum in the context of the likely financial circumstances of HECS debtors employed outside Australia”.

Dr Higgins, a Senior Lecturer in Actuarial Studies at the College of Business Studies at ANU, said that “while [the amount forgone] might be small relative to all outstanding HECS debt, it’s still a large amount of money. If recovery was tricky and costly, then it might not be worth pursuing, but we believe that there could be a simple and cheap fix.

At the time HECS was introduced, the important consideration was “to bed down the principle of HECS”, Dr Higgins said. “It was a very innovative proposal. The focus was on justifying and getting acceptance for the policy, and working out how it could be collected. I suspect that, at the time, the issue about debtors leaving the country was overlooked or considered a minor issue in the scheme of things.

“Administratively we believe this would be straightforward. It would simply involve asking those who go overseas to commit to sending the ATO a set sum of money once a year. People don’t like breaking the law, so we’d expect the majority would comply.”

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37 Comments sorted by

  1. Sarah Hobgen

    PhD Student

    How many of these students then live their entire working life overseas? Is the money really lost or repayments just deferred? The debt increases at CPI, so what exactly are we losing?

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  2. Gavin Moodie

    Principal Policy Adviser

    I think many Australian graduates who work overseas work in the UK, so a reciprocal tax treaty with the UK may be worthwhile.

    A reciprocal income contingent loan tax treaty with the UK would have the added advantage of being the foundation for a reciprocal agreement which allowed UK students who studied in Australia as international students to have their tuition fees covered by an income contingent loan recoverable either in Australia or the UK.

    Currently very few of Australia's international students are from the UK, even on short exchanges. But there is potential to increase them since the UK Government recently almost tripled maximum fees at English universities to the equivalent of almost $14,000. Australian universities would have a very considerable advantage recruiting international students if their fees were covered by an income contingent loan.

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  3. Kevin Cox

    Kevin Cox is a Friend of The Conversation.

    logged in via LinkedIn

    The involvement of the tax office in HECS complicates the process of collecting money. HECS is really a non recourse loan. When it was introduced 20 years ago the only practical way of ensuring repayment of loans was through the Tax System. Times have changed.

    Another approach is for the Universities to take over the existing loans and to come to an arrangement with students for repayment. The agreement with the students can be enforced through normal commercial arrangements like any contract…

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    1. Iain Wicking

      Director

      In reply to Kevin Cox

      You mean introduce a wonderful system like the US which has a Trillion dollars of student loan debt and of that I believe that $250billion is in appears. nothing like creating a massive millstone for people.

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    2. Kevin Cox

      Kevin Cox is a Friend of The Conversation.

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Iain Wicking

      Absolutely not. HECS is an interest free loan paid back when the person earns enough money to afford the loan.

      Indeed one way the USA can get out of its current predicament is for their government instead of printing money and giving it to the banks is to print money and buy all the student loans and turn them into Interest Free Contingent HECS loans.

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    3. Hugo Freeman

      Student

      In reply to Kevin Cox

      Patrick,

      Your parent thread, second paragraph. Having individual Universities administer debts owed to them is pretty infeasible given how disorganised most unis are already. There is no way they could be responsible for the paperwork involved with all the debts involved let alone actually negotiating terms. At the end of the day they are meant to be educational institutions so steering clear of writing financial contracts, debt collecting, modelling repayments, etc. seems like a pretty good idea if you are the dean looking over such a proposal.

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    4. Patrick Easton

      President at Melbourne University Law Students' Society

      In reply to Hugo Freeman

      Hugo,
      Not sure which paragraph or thread you are referring to. I'm not and haven't advocated decentralisation of the administration of higher education debt collection. I believe this is Kevin Cox's proposal.

      I couldn't agree more that universities should not be involved in the collection of such debts. I agree wholeheartedly with the comments of Gavin Moodie as to the ATO being responsible for collecting income-contingent loan repayments. My key concern with decentralisation is the increased cost of borrowing for students that is likely to result. Perfect information in the market is no substitute for security for a loan.

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    5. Kevin Cox

      Adjunct Associate Professor at University of Canberra

      In reply to Hugo Freeman

      My apologies for not explaining myself. What I am proposing is that the person who receives the HECS is the person who is responsible for repaying it. When a person goes into debt for HECS they enter into a contract that says that they will start repaying the debt when their income reaches a particular level. If they don't fulfil their side of the bargain then they are subject to breach of contract that is also specified in the contract.

      We can build systems where people can show that they are…

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    6. Gavin Moodie

      Principal Policy Adviser

      In reply to Kevin Cox

      Student debtors in the US are already responsible in contract for failing to repay their debts and breaches of contract are already public if sued. Breaches and recovery can't be made automatic because the creditor may have been mistaken in claiming a breach, as they often are. If a penalty is withdrawal of a government benefit then the tax office would be yet another agency to be involved, when currently it is the only collection agency.

      Of course most people want to honour their obligations, but a significant minority don't, often because they no longer accept the legitimacy of their obligation. That minority of student debtor defaulters costs the US system hugely.

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  4. Gavin Moodie

    Principal Policy Adviser

    The involvement of the tax office vastly simplifies and cheapens the process.

    Most other countries have private loans which have very high default rates and thus very high borrowing costs because of the difficulty of tracking debtors and enforcing their obligations.

    One of the US elite universities (Duke?) established its own income contingent loan system, which collapsed because of the problem of adverse selection: the students who needed the loan most were poor loan prospects.

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    1. Kevin Cox

      Kevin Cox is a Friend of The Conversation.

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Gavin Moodie

      The tax office involvement does not simplify and cheapen the process. It may have been true 20 years ago but today there are much much cheaper more efficient ways of collecting repayments.

      Private loans are not the same as HECS loans. Private loans are not income contingent and they impose interest charges.

      With HECS most people take them out and there is little adverse selection. The default rate for Australian residents is low. If the Universities take over the existing portfolio of income contingent loans they will have the funding to support new loans and they will have the means to collect repayments from non residents.

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    2. Gavin Moodie

      Principal Policy Adviser

      In reply to Kevin Cox

      Ok, so assume that a university arranges a loan for 1 of its students. How would it know the student's income from which to calculate the amount to be repaid? It would need some way of verifying the student's statement of their income, presumably by inspecting the student's tax assessment. But why move from the current system where all this is handled by the Australian Tax Office to another system which would require multiple handling by a university, student and the tax office?

      Having assessed…

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    3. Patrick Easton

      President at Melbourne University Law Students' Society

      In reply to Kevin Cox

      Aside from the matter of enforcement and regardless of whether the loan provider is the university or a private lending institution, how are students going to provide security for private loans? There is not in Australia a lending culture of providing long-term loans to students as there is notably in the US. This has become a roadblock that the Melbourne Law School and University of Melbourne have hit in trying to provide a solution to the FEE-HELP deficit for Juris Doctor (JD) students. The deficit…

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    4. Kevin Cox

      Kevin Cox is a Friend of The Conversation.

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Gavin Moodie

      Gavin,

      The trend in all information systems is towards what is called User Managed Systems. What this means is that the principles of the supermarket are moving into the provision of financial and other information services. What this can mean is the individual gathers together all their information - including their tax returns and presents to "a HECS system". The amount of repayments is calculated and deducted from their bank accounts or salary. It is very difficult for people to cheat such…

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    5. Kevin Cox

      Kevin Cox is a Friend of The Conversation.

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Patrick Easton

      Patrick,

      If the Universities were in control of the loans then they could increase the HECS loans for different courses. HECS is a great system. It can be made better and more flexible by taking enforcement and collection of repayments from the tax office and giving it to the Universities.

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    6. Gavin Moodie

      Principal Policy Adviser

      In reply to Patrick Easton

      @Patrick

      This is a very interesting post and you raise an interesting and important question. I, also, think the US experience is informative.

      However, I suggest that most loans in the US were private not because of any cultural difference, but because the federal government guarantees and subsidises private loans - at great expense, incidentally. But private loan funding evaporated with the global financial crisis and now all formerly private loans are by the federal government's direct…

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    7. Gavin Moodie

      Principal Policy Adviser

      In reply to Kevin Cox

      But why is 40 universities collecting data and calculating and deducting payments more efficient than 1 agency, the tax office?

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    8. Patrick Easton

      President at Melbourne University Law Students' Society

      In reply to Gavin Moodie

      Gavin, I appreciate your response to my tangential comment and thanks for the insight on the US system. To clarify, the $102 897 figure is the total cost of the JD program over 3 years. The fee is $4287 per course with 24 courses. The cost has been increasing above well above inflation. The University has offered the troubling assurance that it will not increase the fees above 10% in any one year but at the last increase of 8.3% it doesn’t mean much.
      How can the graduate programs be supported without…

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    9. Patrick Easton

      President at Melbourne University Law Students' Society

      In reply to Kevin Cox

      Kevin, I am not sure if this is your proposal. Do you propose that income-contingent-loan limits are set by the same institution that sets the fees? If so, wouldn’t that create price spiralling in Australia that would dwarf the US higher education financing issues?

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    10. Kevin Cox

      Kevin Cox is a Friend of The Conversation.

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Gavin Moodie

      The user is the individual not the University. The University sets the rules for repayments, and monitors that they are made.

      There millions of users (students and alumni) all collecting data, calculating, and making payments - but they all use the similar systems that administer their own loans.

      With modern technology we can replicate systems easily and we do it once and millions or billions then use the same system. Our current economic systems are designed around the idea of having intermediaries…

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    11. Kevin Cox

      Kevin Cox is a Friend of The Conversation.

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Patrick Easton

      Patrick,

      The lender of the funds whether it is the University, the ATO, parents, set the limits for loans and they will vary depending on the likely future income of graduates.

      Price spirals happen when there is no choice in the provision of services. We can leave it up to "the market" to keep prices under control - provided students have a choice. No one wants to go into debt unless they have to and the less the amount the better. The important thing is to give choice and to stop collusion and price setting between suppliers of education services.

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    12. Gavin Moodie

      Principal Policy Adviser

      In reply to Patrick Easton

      Thanx for your clarification.

      The Australian Government already subsidises fee help by not charging a real rate of interest. It increases the outstanding debt by the consumer price index to maintain its present value but does not charge for the provision of funds. The Australian Government also subsidises fee help by not charging for its write off of unpaid loans.

      The answer to your question depends on what fee premium one thinks it is reasonable for the Australian Government to underwrite…

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    13. Gavin Moodie

      Principal Policy Adviser

      In reply to Kevin Cox

      So now you want 1 software system but managed by 40 universities. I still don't understand how this is more efficient than 1 system managed by 1 body, the Australian Tax Office.

      Instead of having loan funds provided from 1 source (consolidated revenue) you want them provided by 40 different sources, each managed separately. Instead of having funds provided at the Government borrowing rate you want them provided at a private borrowing rate. Even the most secure of privately sourced funds have much higher borrowing costs than the Government.

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    14. Kevin Cox

      Kevin Cox is a Friend of The Conversation.

      logged in via LinkedIn

      In reply to Gavin Moodie

      Gavin,

      I will write an article for the Conversation explaining the architecture of modern information systems. You see the principle at operation with EBay, PayPal, Google, Wordpress, Twitter. The difference from these systems and a HECS loan system is that there will be many software systems providing HECS loan services and competing for students and Universities. Who oversees the systems does not matter providing the rules of operation ensure loan repayments are honoured.

      The current monetary…

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    15. Gavin Moodie

      Principal Policy Adviser

      In reply to Kevin Cox

      But who oversees the Hecs system is crucial for the cost of funds since Government capital is much cheaper than private capital. It is also crucial for the cost of collection because the Australian Tax Office has inspection and enforcement powers much greater than private bodies.

      No one lends against future assets without either security or a high premium for risk. Since slavery was abolished there has been no security for human capital, in which case lenders charge a very high premium for unsecured loans, as Patrick Easton is finding for graduate entry law.

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    16. Gavin Moodie

      Principal Policy Adviser

      In reply to Patrick Easton

      Most assume that price caps will continue to be set by discipline. There are respectable arguments for the same cap for all disciplines, but these were not accepted by the recent review of base funding.

      The proponents of lifting the Hecs caps have never stated by how much the caps should be lifted. They want the caps increased by so much that only a few elite institutions would charge the maximum fee. In 2005 the Australian Government increased Hecs caps by 25%. Most institutions increased…

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    17. Kevin Cox

      Adjunct Associate Professor at University of Canberra

      In reply to Gavin Moodie

      Gavin,

      There are other ways of organising our monetary system than the current method of creating credit only when it is secured against something that can be monetised. A society can responsibly create credit where there is a high probability that the credit will be repaid many times over from the application of the credit. This is the case with education. We know that a society that encourages its citizens to increase their skills and knowledge is a society that becomes wealthier and the cost…

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    18. Gavin Moodie

      Principal Policy Adviser

      In reply to Kevin Cox

      One may imagine other ways of organising personal credit, but unfortunately none has been introduced. Private credit for higher education study is ubiquitous in the US, where default rates are very high despite student borrowers being under a personal obligation to repay their loans, and despite tuition loans being preserved in bankruptcy. That is, if a student debtor is made bankrupt almost all of their debts are written off except their student loan which survives. Yet the US federal government has to subsidise private lenders with billions for unrecovered student debts.

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  5. Grischa

    logged in via Twitter

    Where is the discussion on whether HECS is really necessary?
    In a country rich with finite natural resources, the income from those resources should be used to educate everyone for free to as high a level as possible, so that when the resources run out there will be more complex industries than tourism and farming.
    Also, there are many educated immigrants who bring their education for free, often even pay a lot of money to be allowed to bring it.
    Finally, this article could have explored the benefit of spending money on keeping skilled and educated people in relation to the cost of them leaving.

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    1. Gavin Moodie

      Principal Policy Adviser

      In reply to Grischa

      Australian universities are dominated by students from high and high-medium socio economic backgrounds. So ending Hecs would be regressive in transferring resources from low ses to high and high-medium ses people.

      There is no evidence that Hecs reduces higher education participation by any socio economic group, including people from a low socio economic status background.

      So nothing would be gined and much would be lost by ending Hecs.

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    2. Jake Kirk

      Student

      In reply to Gavin Moodie

      I come from a working class background with no one in my family even having finished highschool. HECs is really a god-send for increasing social mobility.

      Its only because of the current system of university being so cheap that me and many of my friends could even make it into university in the first place and work hard to get somewhere better rather than just living off our parents cash.

      I've never heard anyone choose one course or the other over cost either.

      Privatising it would be an…

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  6. Michael James

    Research scientist

    The other missing bit of information is how many of the expats return and after how long overseas?
    In my experience I was the pretty rare exception of someone staying away for decades. (And remember that most people with this kind of experience overseas will return to better paying jobs, thus paying higher taxes.) Most expats that I knew stayed away only 2 to 3 years so I am a bit sceptical about the purported half a billion dollars lost.

    Finally, while things have changed a lot since my time…

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  7. John Nicol

    logged in via Facebook

    With all due respects, this seems to me to be a quite silly article as it overlooks so many relevant issues which are fundamental to the discuusion on HECS.

    1. a. How many overseas trained students does Austrlia gain by immigration and/or temporary working residents?

    b. How does this number compare with the outflow of graduates?

    c. Could it be suggested that when a migrant is accepted with tertiary qualifications, Australia should repay his/her country of origin the equivalent…

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  8. Jo Bourke

    Research fellow

    I have attempted, on several occasions, to repay my outstanding HECS debt and have been met with a brick wall. In fact, I haven't even managed to get a statement about the amount I owe since leaving Australia to undertake post-graduate study in 1997.

    The assertion that expat graduates are all high income earners is certainly not true in my experience - I've been a student for most of the time I've lived overseas and I'm currently a post-doctoral researcher. Any calculations of income for the purposes of HECS repayment would need to take account of the fact that a great many expat Australians doing postgraduate studies will be required to pay upfront fees for that education and won't be eligible for differed repayments or loans to cover these.

    Adding in compulsory lump sum HECS repayments would certainly act as a disincentive for potential graduate students to undertake further study overseas.

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