Since forming government in 2010, the Gillard government has faced an uphill battle to assert its authority on the policy agenda.
Initially, this was partly due to the fact that it relied on the Greens and independents to form a minority government. But over the past few months, the government has been battling one problem after another.
The two most recent issues facing the government – involving allegations against MP Craig Thomson and speaker Peter Slipper – have taken their toll, and, crucially, altered the numbers in Parliament.
The Slipper affair injected a sense of “sleaze” into politics. Accusations about sexual harassment, in addition to allegations of misused travel allowances, led Mr Slipper to stand aside as speaker. There’s no doubt the affair caused the government to be on the back foot.
This played into the hands of opposition leader Tony Abbott who tied the affair into broader questions the coalition have been asking about the government.
In particular, questions about trust – a sore point for Julia Gillard since she deposed Kevin Rudd. The opposition has sought to paint the government as untrustworthy and incapable of making sound political decisions.
In addition to trying to counter these arguments, the government has also had to deal with the political fall-out caused by Craig Thomson’s suspension from the Australian Labor Party. Thomson will continue to represent his district as an independent.
Thomson, who has been at the centre of a Fair Work Australia investigation, had previously received loyalty and support from the Labor Party while he faced allegations of misusing union resources.
Notwithstanding the fact that Thomson’s vote is crucial for Labor’s hold onto power, the party still stood by him. His decision to now suspend his membership can be seen as Thomson repaying Labor’s support. He has, to an extent, cleared some air for the government by temporarily leaving the party.
If Thomson had decided to resign from parliament, a by-election would be called. Based on opinion polls, Labor would have lost that by-election and the Coalition would be in a stronger position to form government. But Thomson’s decision to remain in parliament as an independent safeguards Labor from a potentially humiliating loss. He will continue to support the government, so claims it has crumbled are a premature.
So, with so many challenges and potential crises to emerge, is the Labor government just swinging in the breeze? Opinion polls show that voters are just waiting to elect the coalition next election.
But having Slipper and Thomson out of the picture may actually work to the government’s advantage. First, Prime Minister Gillard no longer has to feel as though she is defending the actions of either MP. This can allow her to focus on the policy agenda, rather than allegations about unsavoury actions by others.
Second, the prime minister sought to present herself as being able to make important political decisions at her press conference. By stating that she advised Slipper and Thomson of what she believed was the appropriate course of action, Gillard has tried to snatch the political football.
But even as the prime minister ended her press conference today, questions were already being asked as to whether she should still be leader of the Labor Party. Speculation about leadership tensions will no doubt gain strength once again.
While the government has been trying desperately to deal with many challenges, Abbott and the Coalition have been able to avoid significant scrutiny of their own policies. On many occasions they have appeared to be onlookers as the government has wrestled with internal crises.
The role of the opposition was never meant to be this easy in the Australian political system.
In terms of some “good news” for the government, it has about 18 months before the next election is due. As this term of parliament has proven, anything can happen in such a short amount of time.
The problem for the government has been that just as one issue appears to have run its course, another takes its place. The question always remains: is there anything else that can go wrong?
Carol Daly
Director
I have given up waiting for the 'good news' to be published on the Gillard government. The achievements of this democratically elected minority government are NEVER published in the mainstream or even alternative media.
Read moreYour series of articles on the media and democracy talked of the fantasy world the media portray. In this fantasy world Tony Abbott will be elected any week now by about 90% of Australians to replace this 'illegitimate government' which is wrecking the country.
When I access…
Russell Hamilton
Librarian
Carol, while I agree with all you wrote, there's also the way Gillard goes about things. Unable to ever convincingly articulate a Labor 'vision' (other than setting your clock early) she seems to be always up to some political trickery. What difference does it make if she asks Craig Thomson to move to another chair while he goes on voting with the government? Who cares?
It's not what people want from her, as Leader. I don't think this will gain her one vote, but on the contrary, cement her image as a schemer.
James Walker
logged in via Facebook
Politicians have their own websites/blogs/mailing lists. Granted I only look at my own local member & senator's sites, but there's nothing being presented on them that either the media or general public should care about.
200 pieces of legislation - so what? 'serious'? Which of them, if any should we care about? Humdrum day to day admin doesn't cut it.
Sharon Segler
Public Relations Consultant
In my memory, the only "master communicator" was Paul Keating and even he fell off a cliff in the end when the tide of public opinion - led by the media - turned against him.
There is no denying Julia Gillard's woeful communication skills. But John Howard was never exactly Mr. Charisma, either. The fact is, when the media is backing you, it matters little whether or not you can master the persuasive arts. Therein lie the dilemma for Gillard and the very point that Carol makes.
In terms of a perception of scheming or trickery, with which other quality would you best describe a successful politician? I would have thought that such "forward planning" goes with the territory!
Russell Hamilton
Librarian
Hi Sharon,
I thought Hawke was a much better communicator than Keating, but in answer to your question ... I think people like a politician to have that 'vision' or conviction, and to act consistently with it. The worst thing they can do is seem to go from one thing to another, without connection, and all the while 'spinning' and repeating rehearsed soundbites. Haven't you heard enough of 'working families' already?
There's a Ted Talk where one of those American professional speakers talks about leadership, but he makes a good point - the Martin Luther King speech was I Have a Dream, not, I Have a Plan.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp0HIF3SfI4
Sharon Segler
Public Relations Consultant
Hi Russell,
Yes, Hawke certainly had the "common touch", I agree. However Keating, for my money, took the public with him as he educated the voters with his plans for Australia's future. Indeed, just recently I heard Keating interviewed on Lateline where he was asked for his perspective on the future of the Euro. His answer explained the situation - both historically and in the current context - with greater clarity, insight and wisdom than any analysis I have read. Such a refreshing change from the three word slogans that dominate the political discourse today.
Although the notion of "dumbing down" the masses is the subject of a new discussion entirely.... other than to say that it represents a contributing factor as to why "just say no" Tony Abbott does so well in 2012.
But like everything in life, this cycle will move on and we shall, once again, return to something resembling intelligent discussion. Time to check my lotto ticket.
Russell Hamilton
Librarian
Sharon - yes, I couldn't stand Keating as PM, but his appearances in recent years have shown he has a very coherent explanation of events which connect everything - global economics, Australia's place in that, how culture ties in with that .... I don't necessarily agree with it all, but it's intelligent, sincere, and from that basis you can have a proper conversation. So unlike our politicians of today - which brings us back to the sad point that our mass media aren't interested in intelligent, informed and coherent ideas.
Rob Crowther
Architectural Draftsman
I am not about to tell you what you should care about but for me there are three:
1.An effort to change the way we look at energy supply (carbon tax).
2.A commitment to improve the way we communicate (NBN).
3.Should it arise, the curtailing of the media’s abuse of their exalted position in society.
Those three would be as big as anything any other government has done in two terms.
Lewis Rassaby
Dr
I agree with your expressed view, however I think the key to understanding what is happening is the issue of misogyny which is so pervasive both in the community and in the media. Gillard is regularly hung, drawn and quartered for actions that would pass unnoticed or even attract a sneaking admiration if they were done by a male politician. I won't hold my breath to see if the community chooses a female with a solid agenda over a deeply unattractive male with backward policies in the next election.
Paul Richards
strategic foresight
Russell - good call applying the "why". Although I have found cognitive bias contributes greatly to others grasp of the "why". Not everyone has an evolved level of thought or set of values that hear the "why" or value it.
- http://goo.gl/nRZ14
"Before we can follow a path we have to be able to see it. This is leadership - the ability to see a path that may not yet exist." - Simon Sinek
James Walker
logged in via Facebook
cool, a concise, polite intelligent reply! Thanks Rob.
But -
1) a tax she said she wouldn't introduce,
2) infrastructure: that's good, but this is Rudd's baby. It's a reason why he shouldn't have been dumped, not one to support Gillard.
3) right, let's trust politicians to decide what journos can report on them. Nuh. Put it another way - how would you react if Tony Abbott got up and announced something like this? Swinging voters like myself don't trust *either* side with the ability to suppress news.
So what, exactly, are the journos suppose to do? Pretend she didn't lie? Let her take credit for her predecessor's action? Support her attempts to muzzle them?
Sharon Segler
Public Relations Consultant
Agree with you wholeheartedly, Carol Daly.
And I cannot help but wonder if the 70% of our mass media pushing for "regime change" do so as a consequence of the reforms being pushed through by Comms Minister, Sen. Conroy, including his recent announcement of a government funded Media Complaints Council.
It is utterly disgraceful that we have become a nation fixated upon gossip, personalities, appearances and one-upmanship tapping into a non-existent cultural myth of simple slogans and faux morality…
Read moreManO'Steel(town)
ManO'Steel(town) is a Friend of The Conversation.
logged in via Twitter
Tony Abbott, once again, fails to capitalize. And that's despite Gillard's ongoing minority government nightmare, hostile cross benchers, sex scandals and internal leadership rumblings. On top of that he remains about as electorally popular as a flat schooner of fish oil. Isn't it about time some one made the call..."Emperor-in-waiting Tony Abbott's got no clothes; he's got no policies, and he's locked in tighter than a rusty nail to a dubious 1950s George Pell agenda, while continuing to suckle favorable exposure from the tainted teets of his old boss, that great Australian (or is he American) serial phone peeper/hacker, Rupert Murdoch. That Abbott is still in the top Coalition job raises a few questions in itself; who's he got the goods on? Certainly more than his once good mate Peter Slipper
Philip Dowling
IT teacher
A few months out from the last NSW election, many electors could not name the Liberal leader of the opposition, Barry O'Farrell.
Tony Abbott's media profile is constantly being elevated by Labor politicians and posts such as the above.
Of course, Tony has a few image problems. He is a heterosexual married Catholic with three daughters. He used to play rugby. He went to university and was so elitist that he obtained a Rhodes scholarship - as did Bob Hawke.
He has such dangerous passions as joining arcane organisations such as the Rural Fire Service, and Surf Life Saving. He even gets up before sunrise to ride a bike, unlike Peter Slipper who prefers long limousine rides.
One must beware of such a person obviously.
ManO'Steel(town)
ManO'Steel(town) is a Friend of The Conversation.
logged in via Twitter
I'm glad you agree
Philip Dowling
IT teacher
As David Marr commented on The Insiders today Julia Gillard is a velcro PM - everything sticks - unlike teflon politicians like Bill Clinto and Silvio Berlusconi.
Read moreWhile no fan of the ALP, I now feel sorry as Julia Gillard just manages to pile up one disaster after another. As a father watching junior sporting teams, you are sometimes aware of the klutz in the team. You silently pray don't pass it to them don't pass it to them ... but finally somebody does. It then becomes a question of what disaster…
elspeth mcinnes
senior lecturer and social researcher
I agree with Carol's comment. Who would know that the nation is to have its first national Children's Commissioner by listening to the majority of the mainstream TV, radio and newspaper outlets? I found out through Radio National (thanks Aunty for sticking with actual news). This federal government has quite a list of positive achievments - the end of mandatory detention for asylum-seekers, a national disability insurance scheme, paid parental leave - things that make people's lives better (wish…
Read moreMarilyn Shepherd
pensioner
Sorry to burst your bubble but mandatory prison for refugees has not ended, if you think that you are dreaming off in noddy land somewhere.
As of 31 March there were still over 1,000 children in some form of prison without charge, 1,600 people locked up for over 1 year and Indonesian children in maximum security prisons with rapists and murderers.
Now they are scandals, but the media are so used to them they simply don't care.
Like today again the media are breathlessly reporting that 164 of the worlds 15 million refugees arrived here.
As if it has never happened before.
And Aunty has been reduced to a shell babbling every second story "the oppostiion says"as if their every word has to be breathlessly reported.
Chris Lee
logged in via Facebook
It's a total shame what's happening to Gillard. She has demonstrated her abililty to implement and execute reforms and legislation. It's too bad she has shown such terrible lack of judgement. For her to say 'a line was crossed' is just cringeworthy. Does she have such a low regard for the voters, that they think they'll actually believe that at all? She has demonstrated herself as a political animal, willing to do anything and everything to hold onto power. It's tripping her up, it's incongruent…
Read moreMarilyn Shepherd
pensioner
It's more a problem of a juvenile and prurient press gallery who want gossip to be fact and morons who think claims are scandals.
No examination or ongoing ability to analyse anything at all.
There is no Thomson scandal, the cops said years ago there is no criminal charge coming and it turns out the biggest fraud is the media's darling Kathy Jackson and they are too stupid to cut her loose.
Then we get to a bogus claim against Slipper - Tony Nutt who was Howard's chief of staff has already said there was no tape or cover up and is planning to sue.
End of that yarn.
The cab charge story is wrong, he presented the forms, they were paid.
End.
Honest to god - it is not possible for the MP's to pocket anything out of this because they are cab charges paid by the special minister of state directly to the taxi drivers.
What we have are old farts like Michelle Grattan forgetting a real scandal - like two wars.
Jonathan Mark
Company Director / Lawyer
Sorry Marilyn, you are completely wrong - these two gentlemen are (and by looking at past form, have always been) crooks - and the reports that are coming out of independent investigations clearly supports this. No yarn, just a couple of grubby politicians caught with their noses in the trough - and in the case of Mr Thomson, caught with other parts in other places.
Peter Evans
Retired
Stepping back from the immediate issue, I hope that something positive can come from this with the Prime Minister announcing that henceforth the Labor Party will follow the approach of the British Parliament and that this will happen in all Parliaments. I understand that there once serious allegations are levelled at a member (and we would have to define serious to some extent) the member resigns their party and moves to the cross benches. They of course still vote etc but are no longer taking part in the day to day business of the party. In the same vein I ask the Opposition Leader to take this approach rather than just play the day to day politics of the issue.