The Prime Minister gave a speech on August 7 entitled Electricity prices: the facts. She explained, correctly, that the costs of transmission and distribution (network costs, otherwise referred to as “poles and wires”) are the major source of Australia’s very large electricity price increases since 2007 (since 2004 in NSW).
In policy terms, it was a speech which could and should have been given at any time in the past four years, during which senior political leaders appeared to completely ignore the growing problems with current electricity market arrangements. In political terms, it was a speech she certainly should have given at least a year ago: she needed to explain the wider electricity market framework within which her government proposed to introduce a price on emissions.
That neither she nor any of her ministers have spoken seriously about these issues until now could, at one level, be interpreted as just another example of political ineptitude. But at another level, it manifests a much more fundamental problem – the great unwillingness to make any changes to current electricity market arrangements.
What is the Prime Minister’s proposed remedy for escalating network costs? Blame the governments of NSW and Queensland for being hungry for dividends from their publicly-owned electricity network businesses. (They are, just as their Labor predecessors were.) Her response is to threaten them with “stronger powers” for the Australian Energy Regulator (AER).
What will this achieve? Almost nothing. The AER’s hands are tied, because it must make its decisions on regulating network costs according to the National Electricity Market Rules and the National Electricity Law under which the rules are made. The Chair of the AER has been asking for changes to the rules to allow more stringent criteria to be applied to price applications by network businesses, but to little avail.
Who makes the rules? The Australian Energy Markets Commission and the Ministerial Council on Energy, to which the Commission reports. The Gillard government (and Rudd before her) could have asked the Commission years ago to examine the case for all sorts of changes to the rules. Needless to say, this did not occur.

The Prime Minister has now said she will ask the states to help her make some changes to the rules, so that the AER can disallow some future applications for further price increases. But, to double up on clichés, this is tinkering at the margin; too little, too late.
We are currently about half way through an approved five-year investment program of $42 billion in transmission and distribution networks in the National Electricity Market (this excludes WA and the NT). The sorts of changes the Prime Minister is seeking might, perhaps, have shaved a few billion off this total. Much more far-reaching changes are required, combining changes to the rules and operating procedures with aggressive adoption of available new technologies.
Residential electricity pricing in SA, controlled by the state government, provides one example of what is wrong with current approaches and what could be done so much better.
In 2004, the Labor government was faced with rapid growth in summer peak demand caused by the uptake of air conditioning. It could have forced those buying large air conditioners to install time-of-use electricity meters and required electricity retailer to charge them higher prices at peak periods. Alternatively, it could have required large air conditioners to be fitted with controls so they could be remotely switched. It could have encouraged retailers to offer customers financial incentives to have their air conditioners switched off for short intervals during extreme peak periods. Each of these approaches would have combined sensible use of economic incentives with new technologies.
Neither approach was adopted. The government sought to address a peak load problem (kW) by increasing the price of electrical energy (kWh) charged to all customers for the entire summer period. Low-income householders without air conditioners have to pay more all summer long because high income households with large air conditioners want to use them flat-out on very hot days.
As a policy response, this one is a treble failure: it provides a negligible economic incentive to change behaviour, it is economically inefficient, and it is socially regressive.

The National Electricity Market provides many such examples of multiple failure. If the Prime Minister were serious about reform of the electricity market she would initiate a comprehensive review. This is not in prospect.
Perhaps we should just be grateful that her speech has raised the political profile of these issues and helped to stimulate a wider public debate.
The biggest defect of the National Electricity Market is its complete absence of policies to reduce emissions, even though electricity generation is the source of over 35% of Australia’s emissions. In 2004, under the Howard Government, the National Electricity Law was reviewed. The Ministerial Council on Energy (with eight state and territory Labor ministers) explicitly rejected the many submissions calling for environmental sustainability and climate change mitigation to be included in the objectives of the National Electricity Law. The Council said, “Environmental objectives are more appropriately dealt with in other policy instruments”.
Nothing has changed since then. The government’s emission pricing policy has been explicitly designed as just such an “other policy instrument”; external to, not integrated into energy (including electricity) policy.
As long ago as 2008 the International Energy Agency (IEA) – hardly a radical organisation – said in its “flagship” publication, World Energy Outlook
Securing energy supplies and speeding up the transition to a low-carbon energy system both call for radical action by governments at national and local levels … governments have to put in place appropriate financial incentives and regulatory frameworks that support both energy security and climate-policy goals in an integrated way.
The electricity policy debate should be about how to re-design the electricity market institutions to achieve just such an integration with climate policy goals.
Philip Harrington
Principal Consultant - Climate Change
The NEM has been a monster out of control for a decade at least. The elaborate NEM governance processes are tightly controlled by a handful of senior Commonwealth and State bureaucrats with much invested in the current model - pride and ideology, mostly. This makes change an admission of failure and, in practice, quasi-impossible.
The ENM was created in the same year we signed the Kyoto Protocol, ironically enough, as it led to an immediate and (until much more recently) sustained acceleration…
Read moreGary Murphy
Independent Thinker
From a social standpoint what we need is tiered pricing (like we have with water). So that the basic necessity level of electricity is quite cheap but the unnecessarily high consumers are slugged for it.
Glen Daly
Retired
Gillard should be the last person to criticize the states for their performance on electricity provision although a lot of criticism is warranted.The feds,Lib or Lab, have been asleep at the wheel for years on the energy watch.
With respect to poles and wires, some of that is due to lack of appropriate spending in previous years - state responsibility. A lot of it is due to the mad population increase due to immigration - federal responsibility.
With respect to carbon emissions,because of the…
Read moreDennis Alexander
logged in via LinkedIn
The unfortunate reality that politics on both sides has put a lid on debate is sad.
That electricity consumers in States where there are government owned energy corporations pay for both infrastructure development and dividends to government in higher prices is a travesty: the former is incompetent management and the latter is a tax disguised as a dividend. In Victoria, one might, and many did, question the price for which the energy corporations were sold. In this case, taxes (dividends), which have contributed to public goods are now profits contributing to private goods.
John Newlands
tree changer
Obviously the network owners used the commotion over the carbon tax to get compliant regulators to approve higher charges while the public's attention was distracted. However 'gold plating' of the network may be to our benefit in the long run.
I think tiered pricing is the way to go with basic allowances for heating, cooking, gadgets and so on. Time-of -use pricing that puts power prices up in cold snaps and heat waves would help provided the basic allowance was in place. Instead of even more billions for advanced metering perhaps radio and TV could announce temporary price hikes eg electricity is $1 per kwh when the temp hits 43C.
Mark O'Connor
Author
Thanks Hugh for some very knowledgeable background on this issue.
One criticism. Why didn't you include Professor Ian Lowe's recent point: that 2/3rds of the increase is due to increased distribution networks, which in turn are due to the our high population growth (over three times the average annual growth of advanced nations) ?
Had Julia Gillard kept her pre-election promise to get Australia off the Big Australia path, most of her troubles with electricity price rises would have been solved.
Also it would not have been necessary to offer electricity providers such favourable terms for investing in network expansion; nor would they have needed to give capacity expansion the high (and expensive) priority that they have.
Jonathan Maddox
Software Engineer
Good point, but it's not really fair to blame distribution network improvements on population growth, when the increases in peak electric demand are much larger than population growth.
"It all started with a kind of buying frenzy in Harvey Norman show rooms around the country.
"As the cost of air-conditioning units plummeted to about $1,500, the split-cycle dream came within reach for many people. Those systems just sold themselves. Between 2005 and 2011, the number of Australian households…
Read moreJonathan Maddox
Software Engineer
It's worthwhile adding that even though PEAK instantaneous electric demand has risen consistently year on year at least until 2011, since 2008 AGGREGATE electric usage (area under the curve) has fallen each year (in NSW at least, not sure about the national total).
http://negergy.com.au/blogs/news-reviews/6285442-nsw-electricity-demand-drops-by-4
Jane O'Sullivan
Agricultural Scientist at University of Queensland
That's a good observation, Johnathan,
And just goes to show that the air conditioners are a double-edged sword. Most people I know who have purchased split-system units (i.e. heat pumps, which are far more energy efficient at both heating and cooling than anything we've ever had before) are saving a lot over a year on heating costs. OK, some of that is transferring energy demand from oil to electricity, but it's not a net increase in energy demand.
The other reason for declining aggregate usage is the demise of manufacturing in Australia. We're just importing the embodied energy in imported products instead.
The answer to peak load is just as Hugh explained, to enable the discretionary items like home air conditioners to be switched off if necessary. Not winding back the solar feed-in tariffs would help too, because they peak to match those hot-day peaks.
Jane O'Sullivan
Agricultural Scientist at University of Queensland
Dear Hugh,
Can you cast any light on this population growth versus peak demand debate?
It seems to me that all the talk is about poles and wires, not extra power stations. Does peak load place extra demand on poles and wires? An extra suburb needs poles and wires, regardless how energy efficient each household is. No getting around population growth.
As for the earlier neglect of investment, I read somewhere that there had been a big injection of (tax-payers') money in the 1990s to get the infrastructure ready for privatisations. Is there really strong evidence of neglect necessitating catch-up spending, or is this just another buck-passing excuse?
Hugh Saddler
Research Associate, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy at Australian National University
Dear Jane,
Since 2006, annual electricity consumption per person in the NEM states in total has been falling. That means, at the macro level, one can say that any growth in total residential consumption (and it is a very small positive over the period 2006 to 2011) is attributable to population growth. Non-residential electricity consumption fell in 2009-10 and again in 2010-11, but it is more appropriate to relate this to the general level of economic activity and to the structure of the economy, i..e how intrinsically electricity intensive is Australian economic activity, than to population. currently, we do not have the necessary data to determine how much of this recent trend, if it is maintained is a trend, can be attributed to structural changes and how much to more efficient use of electricity by businesses.
Vivienne Ortega
logged in via Facebook
Julia Gillard explained, correctly, that the costs of transmission and distribution (network costs, otherwise referred to as “poles and wires”) are the major source of Australia’s very large electricity price increases since 2007. The number of "poles and wires", and how much power is carried, is determined by population growth and the lifestyles imposed on residents. Urban expansion means more "poles and wires", at costs to consumer hip-pockets, and high density living inherently means being captive to power points and appliances such as air conditioners, clothes driers and heating. Consumers can reduce power consumption, but it's the fixed costs that are heavy, and can't be reduced. Federal governments decide our population growth, but the States are forced to manage it!