Making sense of the polls

Making sense of the polls

Ipsos: are the Greens really at 16%?

The first Ipsos phone poll conducted since the election has primary votes of Coalition 36% (down 6 since the election). Labor 30% (down 5) and Greens 16% (up 6). Labor leads by 51-49 after preferences using either the previous election method or respondent allocation. This poll was conducted 24-26 November from a sample of 1400.

Virtually all other polls since the election have been from Essential or Newspoll, which both use an online panel, though Newspoll also uses robopolling. These polls have had the major parties in the high 30’s and the Greens at about 10%.

Ipsos consistently gave the Greens better results than other polls in the lead-up to the last election. The final Ipsos pre-election poll had the Greens on 13%, compared with an actual result of 10.2%. Other polls were far more accurate on the Greens vote, so there is clear evidence that Ipsos is biased in favour of the Greens.

It is likely that Ipsos has the Greens at least a few points too high in this poll, and Labor at least a few points too low.

45% approve of Turnbull’s performance (down 4 since the final pre-election Ipsos), and 45% disapprove (up 4), for a net rating of zero. Ipsos’ ratings have been far better for Turnbull than other polls. Shorten’s net approval was -16, down 8 points; this is partly due to the low Labor vote in this poll compared to other polls.

Turnbull’s attribute ratings have declined since April, but he still leads Shorten on 8 of 11 attributes surveyed. Turnbull’s biggest leads are on economic policy (68-42) and foreign policy (62-41), while Shorten leads on social policy (57-41) and “has confidence of his party” (64-48).

Essential at 51-49 to Labor

This week’s Essential, conducted over the last two weeks from a sample of 1840, has Labor leading by 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 36%, Greens 9%, One Nation 7% and Nick Xenophon Team 3%. Two weeks ago, Labor led by 53-47, so this is a good result for the Coalition. It is also One Nation’s highest primary vote in Essential. Additional questions are based on one week’s sample.

79% believed social classes still exist in Australia, with 10% disagreeing. 31% thought they were working class, 51% middle class and 3% upper class. 41% thought Labor mainly represented the working class, 16% the middle class and 7% the upper class. For the Coalition, it was 3% working class, 17% middle class and 52% upper class. For the Greens, it was 8% working class, 15% middle class and 6% upper class. For One Nation, it was 31% working class, 7% middle class and 3% upper class.

57% thought life for the upper class had improved over the last few years, and only 5% said it had got worse. For the middle class, this was 12% improved and 36% got worse. For the working class, this was 8% improved and 58% got worse (7-69 among those identifying as working class).

47% thought that protectionist policies applied to Australian manufacturing would lead to slightly higher costs for consumers and businesses, 17% thought costs would be much higher, and 13% thought costs would not rise.

Clinton won popular vote by over 2 million votes, but Trump claims millions voted illegally

Although Donald Trump won the Electoral College and the Presidency, Hillary Clinton currently leads the national popular vote by 2.3 million votes or 1.7%, according to Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman. This popular vote loss is a sore point with Trump, who Tweeted:

There is zero evidence for Trump’s claim that millions illegally voted. The Washington Post‘s Fact Checker gives this claim four Pinocchios, its worst rating, reserved for outright lies.

I will have a final US article when the results in all states are finalised.

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