Greater transparency of the subcontractors helping to deliver the National Broadband Network is required says one academic, as NBN Co reveals a $1.4 billion cost blowout to the project.
NBN Co yesterday released its Corporate Plan for 2012-2015, and reaffirmed its commitment to the underlying business case for the network, which it says will deliver a 7.1% annual internal rate of return. However the project continues to be delayed, with an additional six months now added to the ten-year construction period.
Construction activity is set to peak in 2015, with construction commenced or completed for 3.5 million premises, but by the end of June this year construction had only occurred at 305,000 premises.
NBN Co continues to be criticised for the “glacial” pace of the rollout, said Dr Mark Gregory, Senior Lecturer in Electrical and Computer Engineering at RMIT University.
“There’s been no massive windup to actually doing the rollout. It would be like the Snowy Mountains Scheme trying to build the whole thing with 1,000 people.”
Dr Gregory said more scrutiny should be placed on the role of subcontractors doing the fibre installations.
“With the Snowy Mountains Scheme people could see the total number of people hired by the Snowy Mountains Scheme and feet on the ground,” Dr Gregory said.
“The revised plan provides guidance that the fibre rollout has been delayed and projections are provided that indicate the ramp up period extends through to 2015.
“The rate of this ramp up period appears to be very slow prior to 2015 and then the rate of installation is projected to be the no better than the cable rollout that occurred nearly 20 years ago.”
Dr Gregory said it was in the interests of subcontractors to see the project take as long as possible, but that given the project was being seen as a “nation building exercise,” effort should be being made to try to significantly beat the rollout targets.
“I would have expected every effort to be made to get the fibre rollout done in record time.”
Utilising subcontractors for the fibre rollout meant there is insufficient transparency about the rate of the rollout, Dr Gregory said.
“The projections are heavily back loaded to 2015 so it is possible the rollout could be significantly behind schedule and there would be no way for the public to know this until mid-2016.”
Dr Gregory also said Australians should be able to see on a map, in real time, every street in Australia as it becomes active on the network. “Active” is where the premise could have a NBN service within a couple of days after signing up with a retail service provider.
“This would be great transparency that would allow us to measure the rate of the rollout and to experience it happening,” Dr Gregory said.
On the issue of the cost blowout, which amounts to 3.9% of the project, University of New South Wales economist Tim Harcourt was unsurprised.
“I would expect that with quite a large project you’d have a 3% increase, that’s quite possible,” Mr Harcourt said.
Mr Harcourt said the cost and time blowouts needed to be considered in the context of the entire project.
“You make these investments, the roll out seems to take a long time, but then when you look at the benefits over several decades it’s a blink of an eye isn’t it?
“What were the benefits of the float of the dollar? Well we saw them in the GFC and that was, what, 25 years after?”
Mr Harcourt said the biggest problem he could see for the project was the speed of technology advancement.
“Does technology move so fast, does something knock it off and make it obsolete in five years?”
R_Chirgwin
logged in via Twitter
The old "obsolescence risk" keeps arising, but is hardly a serious risk. The passive optical infrastructure - the bulk of the build - is good for anything that optics is capable of.
NBN Co has qualified its switches for 1 Gbps, but even this is very conservative. In 2001, the Southern Cross submarine network had 60 Gbps capacity; it now has 1.2 Terabits capacity on the same cable.
Alcatel-Lucent has demonstrated lab systems performing at around 100 Petabits / second over short distances. So in terms of capacity, the most valuable part of the infrastructure - the fibre - has plenty of room to grow.
Peter Hindrup
consultant
During the 90's, I cannot recall exactly when, optical fibre was laid to the 'exchange', an underground unit in the Kalang valley out of Bellingen. (A bit inland in the Coffs Harbour region)
The speed that the cable was laid across steep, hilly terrain was quite astounding. They were certainly laying kilometres a day. Is it laying of cable in residential areas that is causing the delays?
R_Chirgwin
logged in via Twitter
The short answer is "yes". Pulling one cable across one set of easements is easy. If (say) Telstra needed a new Syd-Bris optic fibre cable, it would be done in months (an unlikely scenario: any sensible carrier running a new trunk pulls huge numbers of fibre in a single cable so they don't have to do it again*).
However: go to a city, and run a new fibre to every street, every house - the scale is entirely different. Sydney-Brisbane is <1000 km. The NBN is >200,000 km.
Nearly every street crossing will need to be negotiated, every dig and trench, and every pull from street to house will need to be notified.
I can't find the original reference, but CSIRO once had a study - city fibre projects are (I think) about 10x to 20x the per-km price of pulling a fibre along a country highway.
R_Chirgwin
logged in via Twitter
Oops, forgot about that asterisk. Because the individual fibres are so so MUCH cheaper than the civil works, it's common to have 196 fibres in a cable where only 20 or 30 are currently "lit".
This has given rise to an urban myth, that Telstra has "thousands of kilometers" of capacity it chooses not to light, to keep the prices high.
The existence of the fibres is true. The reason is the urban myth. Between major centres, at least four carriers - Telstra, AAPT, Nextgen and Optus - have unused capacity. Because they're all competing on those routes, prices are low. The "spare" capacity only exists because it hasn't been sold yet.
R. Ambrose Raven
none
As with the ABC before the current Managing Director completed the destruction of its internal production capacity, or before the flog-off of QR National transferred its focus from operations and training to maximising directors' fees, or the flogging-out of TAFE education destroyed it, NBN should be using essentially its own workforce, paid and comprehensively trained by it.
Government services often have simultaneous operational, economic, social and/or environmental objectives. So public service…
Read moreRobert Tony Brklje
retired
Most likely it is simply finances. Speeding up install means more capital out with less time for revenue to come in. The government should have set up a trust account, where customer could pre-pay broadband for a discount and to trigger a priority roll out in their area when sufficient subscribers in that area are achieved.
You now have revenue in to reduce capital demands and of course a subscriber base is achieved.
This also allows direct promotion of the NBN, as ISP/Telecoms strive to gain pre-order, the funds of course deposited in the trust account and only available when those connections are actually provided.
Philip Dowling
IT teacher
The reality is the NBN will become a huge white elephant. Everybody seems to have forgotten about a company called Davnet and its business model in the dotcom boom.
It is this business model that will bring the NBN undone.
Glenn Jennings
eLearning Specialist
I recently had the joy </sarcasm> of compiling the registration documentation to allow the college at which I work - and my domain is possibly a giveaway - to deliver qualifications from the new ICT training package, ICA11. Part of this process requires engagement with relevant training councils and industry bodies to ensure that what we offer is what is required by the nation. The greatest focus from the national and state bodies was unashamedly on two skills shortage areas - licensed telco cablers with strengths in fibre optics, and ICT project managers, at the diploma and advanced diploma levels (and specifically NOT at the degree and higher levels, interpret as you will).
I suspect that these shortages, more than politics, are the real cause of the glacial speed of the NBN rollout.
With the state-led dismantling of TAFE demonstrated in Victoria and forecast to occur in Western Australia from 2013/14, these shortages are not likely to be addressed.