Orwellian climate double-speak dominating discussion

In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act – George Orwell In George Orwell’s novel 1984, the term “Newspeak” conveys changes not only to the language but to the nature of thought itself, where “… the purpose of Newspeak was … to make all other modes of thought impossible…

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Newspeak and thoughtcrime have taken over the way we discuss climate change. tim rich and lesley katon

In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act – George Orwell

In George Orwell’s novel 1984, the term “Newspeak” conveys changes not only to the language but to the nature of thought itself, where “… the purpose of Newspeak was … to make all other modes of thought impossible … a heretical thought … should be literally unthinkable”.

Thought control is irreconcilable with the scientific method. Since the 17th century, this method has hinged on the identification of empirical natural and human realities, using systematic observation, measurement, experiment, formulation and testing of hypotheses in an endeavour to construct an accurate representation of the world.

Inherently, the scientific method – which along with humanism forms the basis for the enlightenment, the age of reason – poses a challenge to attempts at thought control.

In an Orwellian world, science itself would be deemed to constitute a “thoughtcrime”.

Currently much of the world is either denying, or not acting on, the ultimate warning science has issued to humanity. To spell out the warning: any major interference with the atmosphere-ocean-land carbon cycle threatens to erode the very life support systems of the planet.

Before the Neolithic and the development of Great River Valley civilisations some 10,000 years ago, erratic climate severely hindered cultivation of crops. This meant our ancestors had to rely on hunting and gathering. Since 1750, humans have released some 560 billion tons of carbon (GtC) at the unprecedented rate of 2ppm/year. More than 40% of this accumulates in the atmosphere, which signals the termination of stable climate. We have seen this manifested in a spate of extreme weather events.

CO2’s atmospheric residence times is 1000 to 10,000 years: current emissions are condemning future generations to impossible climate conditions.

The powers that be, bent on business as usual, have developed an Orwellian double-speak that attempts to circumvent the scientific message. Thus, while paying lip service to climate change they in fact allow and promote carbon emissions from coal, coal seam gas, oil shale and tar sands.

This has been highlighted by Christine Milne’s recent statements. Speaking at the National Press Club this week, Senator Milne ended her party’s agreement with the Labor Party, at least in part because of their double-speak on climate change.

She pointed to the ALP’s cognitive dissonance by highlighting that:

refusing to acknowledge the link between the intensity of .. extreme weather events and climate change; and the link between subsidising the mining and export of these fossil fuels and a four degree global temperature trajectory is studied ignorance.

Labor cannot have it both ways. They cannot argue that they take the climate science seriously and at the same time subsidise massive mining and export of fossil fuels to the tune of $10 billion knowing that they are condemning our children and their grandchildren to a world of conflict, scarcity and climate disaster.

These developments echo an article I wrote in September 2011, detailing political representatives using “Newspeak” to ignore the shift in state of the terrestrial atmosphere and its threat to future generations and to nature.

Recent policies and statements continue to ignore the reality indicated by climate science. For example:

  • The carbon price, aiming at a 5% reduction in carbon emissions, has become a major political issue, but the infrastructure is built for annual export of over 1 billion tons of coal in the next few decades. In 2010, Australia became the world’s fourth-largest coal producer, after China, the United States, and India, exporting roughly 70% of coal production.

  • The notion of “sustainable growth”, implying open-ended growth on a finite planet with a thin vulnerable atmosphere, has acquired almost religious overtones among economists and politicians, who rarely consider social and economic realities in a world that is 4°C warmer. To date no government appears to have the courage to call for a reversal of this trend.

  • Rarely do political projections take global heating into account. For example the White Paper “The Asian Century” includes very few references to climate and how it will affect our interactions with Asia; nor what we will do about it. Nor does the Gonski report, concerned with the future of children, contain too many references to what children will face under a different climate.

  • Between 1988 and 2011 the world spent between $1 trillion and $1.6 trillion annually on the military (see Figure 1), and $1562 billion in 2012, mostly on remote conflicts. Apart from the prodigious CO2 emission by military hardware, such astronomical amounts of money are required for the defence of humans and species under a 4°C rise.

globalissues.org

Attempts at either denying the science or belittling the consequences of carbon emissions are common. Some call for politically-based inquiries into climate science – unprecedented since Galileo.

Only rarely are the precautionary and risk management principles mentioned. Thankfully, there are those who see through the Newspeak. Ian Dunlop, former international oil, gas and coal industry executive states in his submission to a Senate Committee on extreme weather:

Scenarios abound, setting out the implications of differing assumptions for the future of our children and grandchildren. All of which would be laudable were it not for the fact that the critical scenario, of accelerating climate change and resource scarcity, is deliberately ignored – apparently too scary for “political realism” to contemplate. Which is a nonsense, for the whole idea of scenarios is to prepare for the real, and increasingly likely, risks and opportunities which we face.

Commentators and politicians are now discussing the politics of Christine Milne’s split from Labor. Isn’t it time they focussed on the more important issues she spoke of? Climate change is real, it is a serious threat, and it is time we talked honestly about what it will take to guard against it.

The criminal dimension of the current campaign to negate climate science and defame climate scientists will only be fully comprehended by our children and grandchildren, when it may be too late.

Join the conversation

294 Comments sorted by

  1. Alex Cannara

    logged in via Facebook

    It's already "too late".

    The 550+Gtons of Carbon already emitted since the Steam Age are not just in the air, but about 40% have dissolved in seas, lowering their pH half way to the point of shutting down major food chains and the natural Carbon recycling provided by the organisms in those food chains.

    So, while great, vociferous yakking has gone on re Climate Change & Global Warming, the easily verified and more immediately serious effects of ocean acidification have been largely ignored…

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    1. Mike Jubow

      forestry nurseryman

      In reply to Alex Cannara

      The climate double speak is powered by the same energy system first described by Douglas Adams. SEP energy is so powerful that Adams had it powering a time travelling space ship. This power is generated by the majority of the populace and is an end result of the climate double speak. Those who accept climate change just shrug their shoulders and those who know climate change is a grand conspiracy also just shrug their shoulders whilst both sides carry on as usual justifying themselves with the excuse, "It's Somebody Elses' Problem". (SEP) Those who actually want to do anything and are actively trying to do something practical have all the obstructions thrown in their way by both government and newspeak naysayers. It is a pity that the government didn't harness SEP power, then there would be no need to build renewable energy power stations or to dig coal out of the ground.

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    2. Stephen John Ralph

      carer

      In reply to Alex Cannara

      Hi Alex

      I sadly agree with you that it is TOO LATE.

      Our earth is past the point of redemption. The seas are dying, the waterways are polluted, the soils are contaminated.

      Our governments are fiddling while Rome burns, tinkering away at the edges of a problem that is shouting out for prompt and radical action.

      I see wars as a result of economic and environmental degradation. There appears to be behind the scenes war mongering going on in China. And that country is spreading its economic…

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    3. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Stephen John Ralph

      Is this the glass half empty thread?

      Chin up buddy.....don't let the alarmists send you into depression.

      Some things are just not worth reading for your own health....some of those posts you responded included.

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    4. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Where is a bucket of sand when we need it, Wade and Nick, move over before i see something that alarms me.

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    5. Trevor McGrath

      Pharmacist Hobby:climatology

      In reply to Stephen John Ralph

      I must disagree about the war mongering by China, in all their history (5000 years) they have never been expanionist in the military sense, Others may be planning on how to draw China in to conflict for economic reasons, But the Han are to smart for that. The tools who think they know it all have only been around as a power for a little over 100 years, and are like the large reptiles.... too much armour and not enough brains. Its only sour grapes the Chinese have learnt from history and a beating the west at its own game. Cheers

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  2. Gerard Dean

    Managing Director

    Orwellian Climate Change Double Speak?

    In the nineties the doublespeak was 'Global Warming'. Then the world didn't warm as much so the new doublespeak was 'Climate Change'. Now that the temperature has flatlined fo 16 years whilst CO2 emissions have soared, the new doublespeak is 'Extreme Weather Events.'

    What's next?

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      The IPCC was formed in 1988.

      The initials IPCC stand for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

      Why do you keep posting here Gerard? It must be embarrassing to continually demonstrate how clueless you are.

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    2. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Gerard Dean wrote: "In the nineties the doublespeak was 'Global Warming'" In your opinion, but at high school in year eight they taught me the history around the science of 'Global Warming'. There learning the reason for the financing of Scotts Expeditions to the Antarctic was the science and observations to verify GCC . These expeditions started in 1901–04, and the ill-fated Terra Nova Expedition, 1910–13 failed. These men died trying to advance the understanding of global warming. Were financed with the belief of scientists and financiers that the issue was worth exploring. Nineties doublespeak in-deed, 1890s.
      Gerard Dean wrote: "Now that the temperature has flatlined fo 16 years" In your opinion.
      If your read those who actually understand GCC, you will see 'the planet' is telling us to change our course and direction. Naturally you could choose one of the 34 scientists that reject this, but who could possibly be that stupid.

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    3. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Gerard, in your case, the only interesting thing that might be 'next' will be the next excuse you lift from Andrew Bolt or Marc Morano.

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    4. In reply to Gerard Dean

      Comment removed by moderator.

    5. Andrew Vincent

      Marketing . Communications . Multimedia

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      O dear. How many times do we need to cover this. If you think the warming trend changed 16 years ago the onus is on YOU to provide statistical data to prove it. Put up or shut up. Saying "the warming trend of the last century suddenly stopped" is a massive claim which needs to be substantiated with something more than a blog post.

      Meanwhile - you can try and draw a flat line on this:
      http://thingsbreak.wordpress.com/2013/02/06/rapidly-warming-satellite-data-sends-skeptics-scurrying-to-models/

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    6. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Thank you Gerard, I totally agree with you.
      There appears to be some agenda when anyone who doesn't toe the party line is immediately bombarded with ad hominem attacks!

      They really would like to silence the skeptics because they have no answer to the facts!

      Most scientists actually are sceptical of mythical AGW!

      Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis
      http://tinyurl.com/amfwwzq

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    7. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      The IPCC Is Actually Infested With Scientifically Illiterate, Young Activists, Not Scientists

      IPCC participants are picked by governments, not for their scientific knowledge and expertise, but for their political connections and for “diversity.”

      Also, approximately one third of the sources for the IPCC come from magazines, press releases and unpublished scientific papers.

      The Summary for Policy Makers (i.e. our leaders) is compiled by bureaucrats not scientists and often completed before the articles they actually summarise are made available.

      http://tinyurl.com/86pxxb8

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    8. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Andrew Vincent

      The "warming trend" from 1980 to 1997 is less than 16 years duration.
      So it's not a significant trend and, anyway, is matched by the 16 years of NO warming since 1996.

      The 16 year warming is fully explained by natural variation, which means that the null hypothesis (viz: Occam's razor, the simplest explanation is the right one) of natural warming holds.

      "It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation."
      Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

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    9. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      Citing a warmist site with all its disinformation does not help your cause Chris!

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    10. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      The link is to climate crank James Taylor from the tobacco loving climate science denying Heartland Institute.

      The http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/02/13/peer-reviewed-survey-finds-majority-of-scientists-skeptical-of-global-warming-crisis/

      More of the usual shite. Because the cranks rarely write papers for peer reviewed journals, their current trick is to misrepresent papers that they can quote mine to make them appear to be saying the opposite of what they are actually saying…

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    11. George Takacs

      Physicist

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Nickolas,

      Thanks very much for that informative link. Having read the article linked to, I can only conclude that you, and the author of the article to which you linked, are engaging in exactly the sort of double-speak referred to by Andrew Glikson.

      Try re-reading the article you linked to and get back to us. Or did you hope that no-one would look at it closely enough to discover your egregious mis-interpretation, and that of the author?

      For those who can not be bothered following Nickolas…

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    12. Dennis Singer

      Student

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Gerard,

      So has the "temperature" flatlined over the past 15 years? Or the last 17 years? What is so special about a cherry-picked point 16 years ago?

      Although you don't seem to know what global warming is, you seem certain of your views on global warming. But you're blustering at a strawman.

      Global warming means that the earth is absorbing more radiant energy than it is emitting. Simple, huh? Now why didn't you know that?

      To determine whether (or not) global warming has happened in the…

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    13. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      The survey is not from a "crank", but is auniversity study whix\ch states
      "we show that the consensus of IPCC experts meets a much larger, and again heterogenous, sceptical group of experts in the relevant industries and organizations than is generally assumed. We find that climate science scepticism is not limited to the scientifically illiterate (per Hoffman, 2011a), but well ensconced within this group of professional experts with scientific training "

      http://oss.sagepub.com/content/33/11/1477.full#T4

      The oft touted consensus on AGW is a total FAKE!

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    14. George Takacs

      Physicist

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Nickolas,

      Give it up mate, you are digging a deeper and deeper hole for yourself. Since when could a bunch of engineers and geoscientists in the petroleum industry be considered "experts in the relevant industries and organizations", when the issue is climate science?

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    15. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Nickolas, there is a difference between an ad hominem attack and criticising someone's argument on the basis of evidence, which is what has been done in every case with Gerard.

      Given that you are unable to understand even this basic distinction it's no surprise that you cannot sort evidence from noise.

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    16. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      So George Takacs independently came to exactly the same conclusion as me. The article by climate crank James Taylor is a lie - what a surprise.

      You have just trashed your own reputation here for posting a link to it.

      I see that you have now posted a link directly to the study that Taylor is misrepresenting - are you withdrawing support for Taylor's article?

      I see that this is the first article that you have commented on Nickolas. Not an auspicious start.

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    17. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Ah yes, I was wondering when you'd start quoting from Donna Laframboise.

      We should get some Ian Plimer soon...

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    18. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      That's right, Nickolas, the Royal Society, US Academy of Science, Australian Academy of Science, CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, World Geophysical Union, Munich Re, Swiss Re, US Defense Department, even the World Bank and the World Economic Forum have been completely fooled by the greatest scientific fraud in human history, but fortunately you and a small band of superheroes from Connor Court publishing have detected the fraud and will rescue us all.

      Meanwhile, back in the real world...

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    19. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Nickolas Bes wrote: "The IPCC Is Actually Infested With Scientifically Illiterate, Young Activists, Not Scientists" If that is true the infestation must be very large, an interesting value system you are using.
      Because so far on last count there were over 33,700 climate scientist who agree the planet is telling us climate is changing and 34 who disagree.
      33,700 climate scientist agree with the IPCC
      Plus a countless number of scientifically illiterate infesting the IPCC who also agree with the 33,700 climate scientists.[according to you]
      34 disagree with the IPCC
      Interesting perspective, just how does that work for you written like this? My guess is it is just one giant scientific conspiracy, the largest in human history. Hmmm.....

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    20. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Felix MacNeill

      Are you saying that what Donna discovered about the IPCC is a lie?

      I'm waiting for the usual made-up leftist smear associating all climate skeptics as lovers of tobacco etc

      The pattern of all skeptics dishonestly being labelled as proponents some whacky cause is far too obvious.
      Warmists should really try some other tack.

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    21. Andrew Vincent

      Marketing . Communications . Multimedia

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      "Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis"

      Paper surveys: " ... professionals within petroleum companies, related industries,... If you bother reading it.

      "Most scientists" Lol!

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    22. Andrew Vincent

      Marketing . Communications . Multimedia

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Bob Carter is wrong.

      We have satellites mearuring light in and out of our climate system and can observe light energy absorbed by the atmosphere that MUST be converted to heat. We can see how much energy is converted to heat specifically by CO2 because of the wavelengths absorbed. AND we have noted an increase over the last 30 years.

      Furthermore - we observe stratospheric cooling at an altitude above where CO2 is active as a GHG.

      We have a tool to explain these things. It's called PHYSICS.

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    23. Andrew Vincent

      Marketing . Communications . Multimedia

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Surveys conducted by the petroleum industry on employees of the petroleum industry show a high level of climate scepticism. Stop the press!!!! The whole AGW thing must be a scam!

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    24. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Felix MacNeill

      "no felix, your wrong, you just are, your sixteen years wrong with no peer reviewed warmists, everyone knows its those greens trying mind control with broccoli, because co2 is a plant food, it just is, look, some crank posted something on the net so it must be true, because i believe it just because, well, your wrong, Bolt and Monckton told me and i got a cheque."

      they say parody is the highest form of compliment and sarcasm is the lowest, not sure exactly where this falls. ;)

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    25. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Asserting citation-free disinformation about no warming (as Dean does) does not help your cause Nikolas!!

      Where is your citation for no warming??

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    26. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      If you don't like GISS because it's part of the great conspiracy, then try any other reasonably complete surface record (Hadcrut4, NCDC). None of them show no warming over 16 years.

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    27. Andrew Vincent

      Marketing . Communications . Multimedia

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      What you are describing has been dubbed "The Escalator" which involves a series of cherry picking points to establish periods of cooling/flat trend interspersed with periods of "natural" warming.
      http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47

      Here's a guy who's actually crunched the numbers on the 16 years thing http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/10/21/temperature-analysis-by-david-rose-doesnt-smell-so-sweet/

      You are also ignoring where the heat energy actually has gone - the ocean.

      "The 16 year warming is fully explained by natural variation, "

      Fully explained??! Nature doesn't just happen by magic. Everything in nature follows the laws of physics. Saying "it's natural" is not an explanation.

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    28. Andrew Vincent

      Marketing . Communications . Multimedia

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Ooh look! It's 17 years of pause now...

      http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nothing-off-limits-in-climate-debate/story-e6frg6n6-1226583112134

      Graeme Lloys thinks enough time has passed to add another year onto the bogus claim himself. No statistics or maths of any kind, just a bit of creative journalism. What's worse, he vaguely attributes the number to Pachauri and the Met Office.

      That is not ignorance there. He knows that the Met Office released a statement last year contradicting the 16 year claim. It's sleazy denier journalism at its worst. (and yes I use that word deliberately)

      Last time he opened his trap the Australian had to issue an apology for inaccuate reporting. Here's hoping he gets another smackdown.

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    29. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Andrew Vincent

      "Lloys thinks enough time has passed to add another year onto the bogus claim himself"

      They will keep doing this for a few years yet. Just make sure 1998 is included at the beginning to keep the trend down and it will probably be 2018 before it reaches 95% statistical significance. Has nothing to do with disproving anything, of course.

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    30. John Newton

      Author Journalist

      In reply to Felix MacNeill

      Can i suggest that we ignore the bleating of the Gerard Deans and the other increasingly irrelevant denialists - and i exclude scientific sceptics - and get on with the job of trying to fix the problem, even if it is 'too late.'

      The astonishing hypocrisy of dealing in coal while playing lip service to emission reduction as pointed out by this article and Christine Milne is one thing that should be widely broadcast.

      How many Australians know of the extent of fossil fuel subsidies? Gikson uses the figure $10 billion, I use the ACF figure of $7 - so what, it's an awful lot of money that could be used to develop our renewable industry.

      Thank you for this article Mr Gikson. I'll distribute it widely.

      And don't let the denialists deflect and distract us: you'll never convince them of the truth, so best ignore them.

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    31. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Andrew Vincent

      "light energy absorbed by the atmosphere that MUST be converted to heat."

      FYI the dominant greenhouse gas is WATER VAPOUR, CO2 is a bit player. (A H2O tax maybe?)
      This is what keeps the earth at a habitable temperature.

      A doubling of CO2 MIGHT increase global temp by about 1ºC, but there are probably many NEGATIVE feedback mechanisms to keep it steady.

      The catastrophic scenarios cited by warmists rely on NONEXISTENT POSITIVE feedbacks.

      These POSITIVE feedbacks are the garbage fed into computer models to give the desired scary result so often touted by warmists.

      The evidence for NEGATIVE feedback is the plateauing of temperatures over the last 16 years (and counting) DESPITE "SOARING" CO2 LEVELS, whilst there is absolutely no evidence for positive feedbacks.

      Also FYI carbon dioxide absorption lines are nearly saturated SO ANY MORE WILL HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT.

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    32. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      "None of them show no warming over 16 years."

      Really?
      The scientists beg to disagree ....
      NASA’s James Hansen:
      “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.“

      “The data confirms the existence of a ‘pause’ in the warming,” Professor Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

      MIT Professor Richard Lindzen:
      “ There has been no warming since 1997 and no statistically significant warming since 1995.”

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    33. John Nicol

      logged in via email @bigpond.com

      In reply to John Newton

      John Newton,

      I thought this was conversation, sponsored by Universities which are, or at least were very proud of their inheritence and support for, the freedom speech and discussion. This is what developds minds and ideas.

      The continual blasting of any sceptic on these pages and the refusal to make an attempt to refute arguments which do not support the IPCC take on global warming, is the very antithesis of this principle. The recent lack of warming by more than 0.05 C in sixteen years…

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    34. Andrew Vincent

      Marketing . Communications . Multimedia

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      "FYI the dominant greenhouse gas is WATER VAPOUR, CO2 is a bit player"
      CO2 has a signature light frequency bandwidth which can be measured and quantified. H20 is a significant GHG but responds to temperature (humidity) and is is therefore a feedback element not forcing. This is very basic Climate 101 stuff. To repeat my statement: CO2 greenhouse contribution can be observed and measured.
      http://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-co2-enhanced-greenhouse-effect.htm

      Or research back…

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    35. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Andrew Vincent

      Andrew, your cite has deliberately left out the effect of water vapour, which would totally swamp any CO2 effect!

      ALSO:
      Climate scientist Dr Spencer
      "It is claimed by the IPCC that there are ‘fingerprints’ associated with global warming which can be tied to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions, as if the signatures were somehow unique like real fingerprints."

      "But I have never been convinced that there is ANY fingerprint of anthropogenic warming."

      "And the reason is that any sufficiently strong radiative warming influence – for instance, a small (even unmeasurable) decrease in cloud cover letting in slightly more sunlight starting back in the late 1970’s or 1980’s– would have had the same effect."

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    36. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Sorry Mike, you et al appear to be deliberately skirting the fact that a SCIENTICALLY LITERATE group of people are sceptical of catastrophic global warming claims!

      I believe that the responses were confidential so that they could give honest responses.

      The so called scientific consensus is a manufactured warmist lie!

      Believers say:
      “Only if we include a strong warming effect from CO2 can we explain the past 60 years’ warming. We know of no other reason.”
      This is the argumentum ad ignorantiam, the fundamental fallacy of argument from ignorance.
      Besides, natural variability is reason enough.

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    37. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      Bugger! I told Greens World Government Supreme Command that we'd never get away with the broccoli...we'll have to try judas carrots to lutre the unsuspecting freedom-lovers into the caves where we can turn them all into muslim lesbian extermists...

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    38. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to John Nicol

      I like John's point, but I still think it's premised on the naive idea that if we ignore them they'll eventually go away.

      It doesn't work with herpes and it doesn't work with irrationality.

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    39. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Andrew Vincent

      Andrew "Saying "it's natural" is not an explanation."

      A general question that climate change “scientists” have yet to address.
      What causes the El Niño/La Nina phenomena?
      How often have we been told that climate science is settled when they cannot even answer this obvious question?

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    40. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      "The five-year mean global temperature"

      So you think five years means 16 years? Riiiiight.

      "Professor Judith Curry"

      We all know she's unbiassed, don't we? She can't even make up her mind whether she's stating her own position or parroting Montford.

      “There has been no warming since 1997"

      That's out of date if it was ever true so is not relevant to the last 16 years.

      "no statistically significant warming since 1995.”

      No "statistically significant" warming does not mean the same…

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    41. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      There is nothing unusual about 17 years of warming that fails to reach statistical significance (2σ confidence interval entirely above zero trend), e.g. 1980 to 1996: http://www.skepticalscience.com/trend.php

      Just means the noise in global temperature is strong. If you're so worried about the noise level, then reduce it by making the obsevation interval longer.

      But as we all know, some people can't see the forest for the trees.

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    42. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      "The evidence for NEGATIVE feedback is the plateauing of temperatures over the last 16 years"

      You don't know that global average temperature has plateaued over the last 16 years. All we know is that global temperature trend was 0.046±0.124 deg C/decade (according to Hadcrut4). So it could have been 0.170 deg C/decade for all you know.

      16 years of data doesn't prove or disprove anything.

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    43. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      "16 years of data doesn't prove or disprove anything."

      We do, of course, have more than 16 years of data available. Why do some people studiously choose to ignore that data?

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    44. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to John Nicol

      "The recent lack of warming by more than 0.05 C in sixteen years"

      Where are your error bounds, John? You call yourself a physicist. Incompetent, more likely.

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    45. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      "So you think five years means 16 years? Riiiiight."

      You misunderstand.

      He said "5 year mean OVER AT LEAST A DECADE"
      My understanding is that he was talking about a TEN YEAR PERIOD.
      What's your understanding?

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    46. Andrew Vincent

      Marketing . Communications . Multimedia

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      None of those 3 quotes back your 16 years no warming claim. I ask again - Where is your statistical analysis saying that the period 1996-2012 lacks significant warming? I have shown links to the contrary from a highly regarded statistician.

      Here he is savaging Curry's claim with actual data. She has not done the maths.

      http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/11/01/questions-for-judith-curry/

      And...

      http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/10/30/judith-curry-opens-mouth-inserts-foot/

      She ultimately retracted the comment you quoted above.

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    47. John Nicol

      logged in via email @bigpond.com

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      I agree with you entirely Chris that there is nothing unusual; about 17 years of warming which falls below statistical significance. The trend over that period is also positive at 0.05 C per 17 years. Noticable on the graph but still strictly not statistically significant.

      The two things that bother me most are:

      1. That no discussion has been forthcoming from climate scientists, as far as I am aware, Karoly, Pitman, English and now Glikson, to show how this stacks up against the much higher…

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    48. John Newton

      Author Journalist

      In reply to John Nicol

      John - I specifically sid denialists should be ignored, not scientific sceptics because as all scientists will tell you, scepticism is central to the scientific method whereas denialism is just obscurantist

      As for the warming plateau, as has been pointed out since Graham Lloyd's piece in The Australian, this plateau has been dealt with at least four times recently, the last in 2102 here http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2011/

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    49. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      "My understanding is that he was talking about a TEN YEAR PERIOD."

      Oh, so TEN YEARS mean 16 years?

      It's all so clear now.

      BTW, the five year average first reached its plateau when it encompassed the period 2001-2005 inclusive (or very shortly before). The beginning of 2001 was 12 years ago.

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    50. John Newton

      Author Journalist

      In reply to Felix MacNeill

      I take your herpes point but you only have to look at this column of responses to see how the denialists hijack the argument. Actually maybe we should look for a retroviral that would work against denialism.

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    51. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to John Nicol

      "The trend over that period is also positive at 0.05 C per 17 years."

      Where is your citation and again, what is your error bound?

      The trend was 0.091±0.120 deg C/decade over the last 17 years according to Hadcrut4. So there could have been 0.21 deg C/ decade for all you know from 17 years of data.

      Why do you think 17 years of data proves anything? You call yourself a physicist?

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    52. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      no actually Nick, that is a common tantrum thown by both sides of the debate.

      Perhaps you perceive people as trying to silence the skeptics as they don't have answers to "your" facts, which, perhaps incoveniantly, is in contrast to whole volumes of other "facts" that don't seem to scratch your surface or support your position.

      linking to your agricultural chemical company website is not the most profound source of climate related science and claiming most scientist are skeptical of mythical AGW i suppose is true as most scientists agree with real observed AGW and not the mythical variety.

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    53. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      i wonder if the IPCC needs a good dose of Quellada?

      So are you asserting that the contributing members of the IPCC (as in the peer reviewed authors whose work have been accepted into scientific journals) are not actually scientists? but instead are some young activist green army that have managed to infiltrate and hijack all the non fossil fuel backed scientific organisations across the globe?

      Wow, now if only we could enlist them into the gay rights agenda, then we could have a different Queen sitting on the throne in the UK and extra medication for all!!

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    54. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Chris, meet Nick,

      Chris likes to quote from a site about climate change and science.

      Nick likes to quote from an agricultral chemical company site.

      Although there is some apparent conflict in the early stages of the relationship, hope is not yet lost that the title of "disinformation" of the year has not yet been settled until we first can clarify which is blacker.

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    55. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      you will never get 100% of the people to like you 100% of the time, particularly if i pay people to curl their lip in a sneer everytime you make it to the lunch room.

      it would be a reasonable assertion that if 97% of people stepped outside and got wet, you could reasonable infer it to be raining.

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    56. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      I was wondering if any one else had noticed that, which pseudonym will i wear today perhaps?

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    57. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Paul Richards

      I bet they are behind daylight savings and the insidious plot to fade everyones curtains.. Broco-Mwahahahahaha!! (evil laugh from the brotherhood of broccoli)

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    58. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Andrew Vincent

      and here is the slap for Bolt, damned pesky govmint insisting we actually research and tell the truth.

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    59. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      umm, El Nino and la Nina are a temperature occilation that impacts on air currents and the locality of rainfall.

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    60. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Neil Gibson

      "there has been no warming for 17 years"

      Just Neil trolling again by playing dumb. Uncertainty of warming (from just 17 years of data) is not the same thing as no warming.

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    61. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      "are some young activist green army that have managed to infiltrate and hijack all the non fossil fuel backed scientific organisations across the globe?"

      Here is a snippet of hard evidence backing this up.

      Why were the following comments deleted??
      Anyone?

      In IPCC report "The Science of Climate Change 1995", lead author Benjamin D. Santer removed the following conclusions made by genuine scientists, and without the scientists being made aware of this change.

      "None of the studies cited…

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    62. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      Oh no! Not the 97% fake consensus lie!

      Two surveys have purported to show 97% of climate scientists supporting the supposed “consensus”.
      In both, 97% agreed little more than that the world has warmed since 1950.
      So what?
      One involved just 79 scientists, hardly a scientific sample size. Neither was selected to eliminate bias.
      Neither asked whether manmade global warming was at all likely to prove catastrophic – a question expecting the answer “No.”

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    63. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      " last summer had the least ice on record"??
      Really?

      1853 40 Degree Water And An Open Sea At The North Pole! Trace gas, CO2 at "SAFE" levels!
      http://tinyurl.com/a2rfenx

      1818 GREENLAND MELTDOWN! “remarkable disappearance of ice”
      http://tinyurl.com/b94zc5w

      1923 Arctic Ice free To 81º 20' Latitude!
      http://tinyurl.com/6jkglcs

      1923 Unheard Of High Temperatures Melting North Pole Entirely http://tinyurl.com/72vhbh7

      DUD PREDICTION Scientists Tell Congress Arctic Navigable By 1979! http://tinyurl.com/abgdsxd

      ANOTHER DUD PREDICTION! 1972 Arctic Ice Free By 2000 http://tinyurl.com/7vovm9s

      1922 A Disturbing Warming Trend In The Arctic http://tinyurl.com/ykzjeek

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    64. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Nickolas Bes wrote: "Oh no! Not the 97% fake consensus lie!" Run back the 'Think Tanks' and come back with something legible.

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    65. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Nickolas Bes wrote : " last summer had the least ice on record"??" Thank you for the segway.
      Do your homework Scotts expedition to the Antarctic was financed because of those and other very observations. His last and fatal expedition was made up entirely of climate scientists. All you have done quoting all these sources is verify climate scientists have been doing this research for over one hundred years.
      Yes, a disturbing trend even observed back at the turn of last century, this set of data has a long history.

      33,700 climate scientists actuall believe the planet is telling us it is warming.
      34 climate scientists are on record as denying this.

      33,700 vs 34 what are the probabilities they are wrong after studying over one hundred years of data?

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    66. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Paul Richards

      "33,700 vs 34"

      Not only is there no known broad agreement in the “entire scientific community” about the causes of climate change (and it only matters what climate experts think, not all scientists), but literally thousands of scientifically qualified individuals have endorsed open letters and other declarations opposing, either directly or indirectly, the CO2/dangerous global warming hypothesis.

      Here are 14 of them, all linked to the documents and endorser lists:

      2010: SPPI letter to the…

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    67. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Nickolas Bes wrote: " Not only is there no known broad agreement in the “entire scientific community” In your humble opinion, and of course you are right and the rest of the world is wrong!
      All you have done citing those numbers is show a decline in denial supporters .......
      Sad really.

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    68. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      the comments were probably deleted as they were in conflict with the Conversations policies.

      1995 was 18 years ago, got anything more recent?

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    69. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      your not really providing any support for the claim "97% fake consensus lie"

      interesting how you can extrapolate the answer to a question that wasn't even asked, but then i suppose thats not an issue for you

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    70. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      "the comments were probably deleted as they were in conflict with the Conversations policies"

      I was referring to the IPCC scientific conclusions on "no evidence for AGW" made by scientists in 1995, which were deleted by an activist disguised as a scientist, without consultation.

      Here they are again ...

      In IPCC report "The Science of Climate Change 1995", lead author Benjamin D. Santer removed the following conclusions made by genuine scientists, and without the scientists being made aware…

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    71. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      "" last summer had the least ice on record"??
      Really?

      1853 40 Degree Water And An Open Sea At The North Pole!"

      Actually it says: "Dr Kane, when frozen up in the winter of 1853,
      sent two men overland, toward the north, and they approached within 518 miles of the pole. They there saw from the summit of a cliff, an immense, open, iceless sea, throwing towards heaven, frozen-capped waves, rolling an oceanswell, and a tide setting towards the north."

      Assuming you can believe everything you read in the papers, they were still 518 miles from the North pole in winter during the Little Ice Age, not "At The North Pole!"

      It's just pathetic the way denialists seem to spend their days scouring old newspapers in the hope of finding some imaginative hypothesis supporting their pet beliefs.

      And they call themselves skeptics. The irony.

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    72. Andrew Vincent

      Marketing . Communications . Multimedia

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      "Andrew, your cite has deliberately left out the effect of water vapour, which would totally swamp any CO2 effect!"

      You are totally not understanding this.

      The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere exists in direct relation to the temperature. If you increase the temperature, more water evaporates and becomes vapor, and vice versa. So when something else causes a temperature increase (such as extra CO2 from fossil fuels), more water evaporates. Then, since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, this additional water vapor causes the temperature to go up even further—a positive feedback.

      http://www.skepticalscience.com/water-vapor-greenhouse-gas.htm

      Can I politely recommend you research the difference between a forcing and a feedback.

      http://scienceofdoom.com/2009/11/28/co2-an-insignificant-trace-gas-part-one/

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    73. Andrew Vincent

      Marketing . Communications . Multimedia

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      "Besides, natural variability is reason enough."

      Oh god. Really? You don't think nature abides by the laws of physics?

      By what MECHANISM could the earth's entropic system be gaining energy if not by increased GHGs?

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    74. John Nicol

      logged in via email @bigpond.com

      In reply to Andrew Vincent

      I think it is necessary for any genuine research into the causes of an observed effect to consider all possible processes in detail. Much og the effects attributed to the effects of warming are supposed to be triggered by minute changes in relative terms. While the rise of say 1.0 C is large compared to our concept of an agreeable temperature range of say 40 C for which it is 2.5%, on the scale of changes which influence the behaviour of winds etc is determined against a background of the mean…

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    75. Gary Murphy

      Independent Thinker

      In reply to John Nicol

      Surface temperatures are a very narrow measure of the planet's heat content. 90% of the energy absorbed by the earth is absorbed by the oceans.

      Oceanic heat content and related sea levels continue to rise.

      Mr LLoyd's (and others) continual focussing on the narrow surface temperature measurements while ignoring the rest of the story is very deceitful.

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    76. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Gary Murphy

      Gary Murphy wrote : " ......... while ignoring the rest of the story is very deceitful" True, how much is self deception is due to cognitive bias they are simply unaware of is debatable. One thing is certain, every single controversial issue in any culture has similar phenomenon.
      We can be grateful there are those among us who use their intelligence with critical thinking. Also that the younger generations are far more aware of the climate science than these people give them credit.

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    77. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to John Nicol

      "the sun's output varies by about 0.1% over the solar cycle, yet this admittedly smaller (but of the same order of magnitude) change is totally dismissed in all of the IPCC reports"

      You never give up the dishonest trolling, do you John? Solar forcing is shown in FAQ 2.1 Figure 2 of AR4 WG1: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-2-1-figure-2.html

      "the rapid increase in global temperature from 1979 to 1996"

      Whatever happened to 1997 and 1998, John? Not to mention 2005 and…

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    78. Andrew Vincent

      Marketing . Communications . Multimedia

      In reply to John Nicol

      Solar can be dismissed as cause for the recent warming because of the observed trend of stratospheric cooling. It cools as the troposphere warms. This is consistent with an increasing GHG forcing. Proxies suggest a historically strong correlation between TSI and global temps but this appeared to break down in the late 70s. I can provide links to studies if you are genuinely interested.

      If you are expecting surface temps to rise in direct correlation to CO2 increases you are dismissing natural variability, solar, ENSO oscillations, volcanic aerosols etc... When you take these into account your 15 year "pause" pretty much disappears.

      You can only read so much into graphs - deciphering a true "climate" signal from a noisy weather signal is a job for a statistician. More often than not it's done by a reporter claiming "17 years" and people such as yourself parroting it as a fact.

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    79. John Nicol

      logged in via email @bigpond.com

      In reply to Andrew Vincent

      Andrew, I am sorry but there are NO reliable measurements of the radiation (not just light) entering and exiting our climate system. An earlier paper by Harries et al. has been shot down and the authors have long since reviewed the findings and accepted the errors.

      The difficulty of making absolute measurements of the intensity of the sun and that of all of the radiation, mostly infra red, leaving the atmosphere is difficult under careful laboratory conditions. To suggest as Harries et al…

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  3. Comment removed by moderator.

    1. In reply to Gerard Dean

      Comment removed by moderator.

  4. Comment removed by moderator.

    1. In reply to Gerard Dean

      Comment removed by moderator.

  5. Gerard Dean

    Managing Director

    Mr Glikson,

    In terms of military spending, do you want Australia to maintain it's lead in things climate such as the Carbon Tax by reducing military spending.

    Do you want the young men, when next called to fight and die in defence of this country, to fight with Wirraway's against Japanese Zero's. That is what happened when Australia, a relatively prosperous nation, cut defence spending in the 1930's. Come the 1940's and our young men had little more than 303 bolt action rifles against world class fighter planes and tanks.

    Thousands of young Australian men died excruciating deaths on lonely battlefields because of short sighted defence spending cuts that left them poorly armed. It is the duty of our government and our nation to be able to defend our shores without resorting to WWI massed, suicidal charges.

    The linking of Australia's defence spending to your article on climate change is, in your words, a 'thought crime'.

    Gerard Dean

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    1. Michael Shand

      Michael Shand is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Software Tester

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Gerald, there is no reason for you to believe this but keep it in the back of your mind, it is a prediction from the book "2052 A Global Forecast"

      It states that Climate Change will become a National Defence issue in most countries within the next 30 years.

      Just keep it in the back of your mind and see what happens

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    2. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Poor old Gerard. Gets his science from Mr A Bolt.

      Must have missed this.

      "A 2010 Defense Department review cut through political rhetoric and stated that climate change and energy security are “prominent military vulnerabilities”. Climate change in particular is an “accelerant of instability and conflict,” the report noted."

      http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/04/04/u-s-military-combats-climate-change/

      "U.S. Military Forges Ahead with Plans to Combat Climate Change"
      http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=us-military-forges-ahead-with-plans-to-combat-climate-change

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    3. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Andrew Glikson : "Attempts at either denying the science or belittling the consequences of carbon emissions are common. Some call for politically-based inquiries into climate science – unprecedented since Galileo." Very accurate prediction and it can be difficult grasp why it needs saying.
      Gerard Dean "The linking of Australia's defence spending to your article on climate change is, in your words, a 'thought crime'." Gerard Dean, you might find an audience who care on this forum. http://goo.gl/iacdJ

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    4. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Michael Shand

      "Climate Change will become a National Defence issue in most countries within the next 30 years."

      Juts like in the 1970's when global COOLING was "a National Defence issue"!

      The CIA’s "Global Cooling" Files
      “A Study of Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”
      written by the CIA for ‘internal planning purposes’ in August 1974

      http://www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf

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    5. John Nicol

      logged in via email @bigpond.com

      In reply to Gerard Dean

      Well said Gerard. Keep up the discussion in terms of the facts and don't let the personal abuse get to you. It is always the case that when one does not have an argument to put, there alternative is to insult your opponent, a feature which is well demonstrated unfortunately on this site. One needs to have a very thick skin here. Best, John Nicol

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    6. John Nicol

      logged in via email @bigpond.com

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Yes Mike. The Defense Department relies on Government funding for its existence and growth, of course.

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    7. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Michael Shand

      I must say, though, that getting the US Defense Department in on the pinko greenie warmist conspiracy for world government and universal cave-dwelling was something of a coup - to be honest, we're still cackling about it here at Greenie Supreme Command...

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    8. Roger Davidson

      Student

      In reply to John Nicol

      Oh my gosh, you are such a victim! "I do get abused daily sir, but thats OK, my skin is tough oh vey"

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    9. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      " climate change and energy security are “prominent military vulnerabilities”. "

      Interesting ... they were attributing eactly the same "extreme weather" on global COOLING in the 1970's.
      So which is it?
      Very likely neither!

      Der Spiegel 1974: Increased frequency in extreme weather events due to GLOBAL COOLING!
      http://tinyurl.com/3a8zg4c

      Oh if you want really, really extreme weather ....

      1890 EXTREME WEATHER On STEROIDS!! http://tinyurl.com/3c89vp6

      1931 Extreme Storms Floods &Typhoons Cause Damage Throughout World. CO2 at "SAFE" levels!
      http://tinyurl.com/bmnjc3y

      1921 A Long Siege Of Freak Weather Is Hitting US And World. Trace gas CO2 at "SAFE" levels!
      http://tinyurl.com/ceuzt9b

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    10. Doug Hutcheson

      Poet

      In reply to Felix MacNeill

      "to be honest, we're still cackling about it here at Greenie Supreme Command..."

      Is it possible to cackle in double-speak? I imagine it is possible to crackle, when the heat from AGW gets high enough, but I don't remember Orwell discussing cackling. Big Brother will be watching me from now on, as I dare to speak the truth ... gasp!
      "8-)

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    11. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      As I wrote earlier, it's amazing the amount of trawling denialists do. It's a cottage industry.

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  6. John Zerilli

    Tutor in Law and Philosophy at University of Sydney

    Excellent article. The major parties are now, unsurprisingly, taking to lampoon the Greens as "extreme", Paul Howse even describing Christine Milne on Lateline as "willing to get into bed with anyone" (ignoring the sexist overtones) and as belonging to a party that will threaten the long-term democratic standing of the nation. What do the Greens do? Campaign for dental care, lament the erosion of democracy as evidenced by back-room deals with the big miners, insist on reform of the electoral system to end the stranglehold of the big-doners and lobbyists, call for an end to the subsidising of coal mines en masse....The list goes on. It doesn't spell "extreme". It spells "serious" about democracy, and serious about the reality of ecological collapse.

    If the science were truly believed by Labor, the Liberals or anyone else in Parliament for that matter, they might all be sounding as shrill, extreme and high strung as the Greens.

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    1. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to John Zerilli

      Paul Howse is exactly illustrative of the reason Lanbor is in trouble - an unprincipled bully and crude numbers man.

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    2. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to John Zerilli

      John "What do the Greens do?"

      You left out ...
      death duties,
      communist world government,
      giant carbon dioxide tax to make electricity unaffordable,
      confine all humans to giant high rise ghettos to make way for "nature" (agenda21)

      ... a few off the top of my head.

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    3. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to John Zerilli

      John "call for an end to the subsidising of coal mines en masse...."

      Sorry but these are not "subsidies" but "tax deductions"!

      FYI Miners pay huge amounts of tax from their massive profits!

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    4. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Yay! 'Communist World Government' - thanks Nickolas, I just won a $10 bet on that turning up (if only you'd mentioned the caves as well I would have won $50!)

      Only, I think thet may have come from a metre or so lower than the top of your head.

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    5. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      mm.. huge amounts of tax, Less 7-10 billion that we pay them for selling our resources for the benefit of 83% foreign owned corporations who would really like to import their workers on the cheap, plus the health costs associated with coal mining, transport and burning, plus the distortion of our political process displacing our communities, who have virtually no rights at law to protect their businesses and homes and assets, plus the long term clean up costs which eventually fall on the taxpayer, plus the billions of taxpayer funds used to provide the infrastructure, plus the squeezing out of truly renewable energy tech. And this without even referring to the costs of AGW. And they still make mega billions while the taxpayer has to scratch around to cover those inconsequentials like health, education etc.

      Seems like we get the short end of the stick, or is it that they have us by the short n curlies?

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    6. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      " the costs of AGW"
      You're talking about the carbon dioxide tax now aren't you?

      The main "costs of AGW" are skyrocketing electricity prices!

      I'm not aware of any direct costs from mythical AGW, seeing it doesn't exist!.

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    7. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Thats ok Nick, the rest of us understand fine.

      And no, i was not at all referring to carbon pricing. What i was referring to is changing salinity and current flows in the oceans with their impacts on food chains and weather patterns, increased severity and frequency of weather events, displacement of large amounts of people due to rising ocean levels, failing food productive regions, the economic costs to our cities mostly on the coast as the CBD becomes an aquatic park etc etc.

      If the only…

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    8. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      "What i was referring to is changing salinity and current flows in the oceans with their impacts on food chains and weather patterns, increased severity and frequency of weather events, displacement of large amounts of people due to rising ocean levels, failing food productive regions, the economic costs to our cities mostly on the coast as the CBD becomes an aquatic park etc etc."

      None of this has happened.
      Looks very much like you're projecting from GIGO climate models!

      BTW:
      Just to pick…

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    9. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      Robert, that's not to mention the very high quality recent study by muller, Mendelsohn and Nordhaus in the American Economic Review:
      http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.5.1649
      This shows that, when all externalities are taken into account - particularly the directly measurable health impacts from mining and burning coal - the net impact of coal-fired electricity generation on the economy is actually negative. that's right, even callously ignoring the human suffering behind some…

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    10. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      ok nick, i bow to you who is obviously able to detect shifts in global patterns with your naked eye based upon what you see out the window in Sydney.

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    11. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      "The worst years for extreme weather were"

      It's amazing the amount of trawling denialists do. It's a cottage industry.

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    12. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      "failing food productive regions"?????

      Let's look at just some facts ...

      The latest news on India’s rice crops:
      RECORD RICE CROPS
      India Hits Record Grain Harvest
      February 28, 2012
      India is reaching records this year in many key agriculture areas… India has become the world’s largest producer of rice as a result of record production and the lifting of a three-year ban non-basmati rice exports.

      http://tinyurl.com/a3fw9mx

      RECORD WHEAT CROPS TOO.
      India. Wheat exports to more than double in 2012
      Wheat exports from India, the world’s second-biggest producer, is expected to more than double to 1.5 million tonnes in the 2012-13 marketing year on account of back-to-back record harvest, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a report.

      http://tinyurl.com/ao5q4h5

      21 Nov 2011
      West Australian farmers are on track to reap the second-biggest harvest on record as operations at major receival depots across the state move into high gear.

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    13. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      Have you looked at the aquifers underlaying Indias food producing regions which these regions are reliant upon to produce food?

      Notice how depleted they have become with some bores now needing to be 60 - 70 meters deeper than pre the green revolution?

      I wonder if you can find that in the agricultural chemical company website you repeatedly link to.

      Anyway Nick, your not going to convince me or anyone else that AGW and climate change is not real, and that current world experience is not exactly as has been already predicted by the climate models and the chances of you being right and 97% of the worlds actual climate scientist being wrong are quite negligable.

      By all means keep trying though, I wouldn't want you to feel irrelevant to the discussion.

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    14. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      or are you trying to provide an example of the "Orwellian Climate Double-Speak" that is the subject of the article?

      Is so, your doing a bang up job!

      Who else thinks so? :)

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    15. Nickolas Bes

      Computer Engineer

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      " increased severity and frequency of weather events"

      Interesting ... they were attributing exactly the same "extreme weather" on global COOLING in the 1970's.
      So which is it?
      Very likely neither!

      Der Spiegel 1974: Increased frequency in extreme weather events due to GLOBAL COOLING!
      http://tinyurl.com/3a8zg4c

      Oh if you want really, really extreme weather ....

      1890 EXTREME WEATHER On STEROIDS!! http://tinyurl.com/3c89vp6

      1931 Extreme Storms Floods &Typhoons Cause Damage Throughout World. CO2 at "SAFE" levels!
      http://tinyurl.com/bmnjc3y

      1921 A Long Siege Of Freak Weather Is Hitting US And World. Trace gas CO2 at "SAFE" levels!
      http://tinyurl.com/ceuzt9b

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    16. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Nickolas Bes

      not really interested in what you have to say Nickolas, you are an exercise in futility and even the amusement has fled.

      Trawl away to your hearts content, i imagine that everyone else has switched off from you too.

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  7. Mike Hansen

    Mr

    Great article Andrew.

    And that was a great speech by Milne. You get an indication of how good it was from the levels of hate and vitriol being directed at her and the Greens from the usual suspects.

    And you are correct in drawing attention to the fact that The Conversation's star recruit, political gossip columnist Michelle Grattan completely missed the point like the rest of the commentariat.

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    1. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Mike, did you see the Daily Turd's front page yesterday? I fear for the injuries caused to all the sharks that were jumped in that exercise in journalistic vitriol and arse-licking.

      (Of course, the Daily Turd is actually marketed as the Daily Telegraph, but I prefer truth in advertising.)

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    2. Dave McRae

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Thank you Andrew

      And Mike, you're spot on. The old media tanty and subsequent quote mining demonstrates old media journos desire not to inform but to broadcast the interests of a minority.

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  8. Ted Black

    Retired

    I've come across a recent study that discusses the difficulty of getting the scientific message about climate change over to the North American population at large. "The Tragedy of the Risk-Perception Commons: Culture Conflict, Rationality Conflict, and Climate Change" with lead author Dan M. Kahan of Yale University
    Surprisingly, they find that many critics are actually quite scientifically literate and their objections or resistance seem to result from their cultural conditioning, hence an unconscious resistance. Lawrence and Nohria also wrote about 4 fundamental "drives" for humans, being to acquire, bond, learn and defend. Certain cultural conditioning means the acquire and defend bits are very, unconsciously dominant. The individualistic type cultural flavours promote this "bias" I guess.
    Finding the best way to deliver the disconfirming information to the population to get the cultural change moving is a difficult challenge.

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    1. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Ted Black

      Ted Black wrote : "The Tragedy of the Risk-Perception Commons: Culture Conflict, Rationality Conflict, and Climate Change" ... lead author Dan M. Kahan of Yale ...... they find that many critics are actually quite scientifically literate and their objections or resistance seem to result from their cultural conditioning" This is a very good paper and social conformity has been applied politically, much of the ground work is well known.
      This experiment is a great example of conformity of an intelligent individual, even knowing the group is wrong.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYIh4MkcfJA&feature=g-list&list=PLoTiYk0fu8jbi0hKRCOZ6leJLKtWCBQ1u

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  9. Nicky Robinson

    Communicator

    Andrew: Thank you for telling it like it is.
    Everyone else: Stop giving Gerard oxygen.

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Nicky Robinson

      Stop giving Gerard oxygen?

      I thought that everyone knew that Gerard breathed pure CO2. Or is it methane from all the BS?

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  10. Mark Duffett

    logged in via Twitter

    All true, yet it also needs to be pointed out that Senator Milne and the Greens have their own form of cognitive dissonance on climate. They cannot continue to point to the dire consequences of global heating while simultaneously insisting that we neither need nor want proven-at-scale nuclear energy technology to combat it. Their prescription is failing (http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/green-movement-has-been-an-abject-failure-20121204-2at7t.html), and in so doing condemning the planet to catastrophic consequences.

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    1. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to Mark Duffett

      That is a very dishonest comment Mark.

      The article that you link is not calling for nuclear power - in fact it is making many of the same points that Milne makes in her speech.

      To blame the Greens for the failure of the world to take action on climate change while not mentioning that Barry Brooks, Australia's main advocate for nuclear has joined lukewarmers Bjorn Lomborg and Roger Pielke Jr at the Breakthrough Institute is disingenuous in the extreme.

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    2. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Mark Duffett

      Mark Duffett wrote " ...nor want proven-at-scale nuclear energy technology to combat it." Why would they?
      Do you actually understand how long it takes to plan, construct and commission a single modern nuclear power station? The issue is rapid global climate change, not a casual ramp up over twenty to thirty years.
      Mark Duffett wrote : "....and in so doing condemning the planet to catastrophic consequences." This phrase or similar is on every nuclear industry sales brochure across the planet. We…

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    3. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Agree, Mike, it was deeply dishonest.

      It's also rather basic bad reasoning - arguing that because someone does not accept your proposed solution means that they are happy for the problem to remain unsolved is rather childish debating.

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    4. Michael Shand

      Michael Shand is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Software Tester

      In reply to Mark Duffett

      Look if you can get one of the other parties to stand up for Nuclear then great but until then you are cherry picking

      "Look the greens are against Nuclear..." - is that a slight against the greens or a slight against the majority of Australians?

      Unless you are suggesting that the greens have been the ones holding back Nuclear this whole time? what a powerful political party they must be to be able to do that

      BTW Gen IV or Gen V Nuclear, especially LFTR are awesome, almost magic, unbelievably safe and produce stupid amounts of energy - I appluad you for pushing Nuclear but dont use it as an excuse to justify your own prejudice (IE> dont jst attack one minor party for doing the same thing as both major parties, its dishonest)

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    5. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Michael Shand

      Michael Shand wrote"BTW Gen IV or Gen V Nuclear, especially LFTR are awesome, almost magic, unbelievably safe and produce stupid amounts of energy." So the 'sales' brochures and stakeholders tell us. Nuclear scientists that are unaligned tell the other side of the 'story'.
      Nuclear radiologist Peter Karamoskos, of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), says the world shouldn't hold its breath waiting for LFTR - 'thorium reactors'. "Without exception, [thorium reactors] have…

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    6. robin linke

      stamp dealer

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      In reply to Mike Hansen:
      I agree entirely with Mark Buffett. To warn that climate change will have catastrophic consequences for life on Earth and then to completely reject without scientific debate the two base load power sources that are carbon free, namely Nuclear & Hydro is tantamount to sabotage.
      In fact it is the very thought control that George Orwell condems.
      So the issue of climate change, which is real and demands rational debate is being used to stifle debate on nuclear, hydro and…

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    7. Mike Hansen

      Mr

      In reply to robin linke

      Actually robin - I am not opposed to hydro. Nor am I opposed in principle to Gen 4 Nuclear - I just doubt that it can actually be deployed safely and in the timeframe and cost to make a difference.

      I am not sure what Pauline Hanson has to do with the debate other than her racist crank ideas are shared by many climate science deniers. The cranks are thin on the ground in this discussion because they are all busy defending Dutch racist Geert Wilders at another article.

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    8. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Michael Shand

      Michael Shand wrote "....... against Nuclear Power for obvious reasons"
      There is a viable solution already tabled, can only suggest you read it.
      "Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan" published by Melbourne Energy Institute University of Melbourne, July 2010. http://www.energy.unimelb.edu.au/uploads/ZCA2020_Stationary_Energy_Report_v1.pdf
      I also recommend due diligence on the nuclear waste issue and to pay it forward.
      Here is a start, these are relatively easy for an overview;
      http://www.drkarl.com/the-karl-collection/great-moments-in-science/nuclear-waste
      http://youtu.be/xDNGWKCS39M

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    9. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to robin linke

      Oh do calm down, robin.

      If you are going to make slanderous claims like 'completely reject without scientific debate' without backing it up with any evidence your post is nothing more than a tantrum and deserves about as much respect.

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    10. robin linke

      stamp dealer

      In reply to Mike Hansen

      Well Mike, If you support Hydro and in principle support Gen IV nuclear reactors why did you not say so. After all this is supposed to be an open debate.
      These 4th generation nuclear reactors will come on line in about 17 years. We have been waiting 40 years for a viable base load renewable power source yet you support this phantom energy source.
      Pauline Hansen is a very important symbol in modern OZ political history. She made common sense statements and was ridiculed by the intellectual…

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    11. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to robin linke

      i would suggest that an important thing to consider is also the level of research and funding diverted AWAY from developing renewable supportive technologies due to the discomfort of the fossil fuel companies and their mouth pieces whether think tank or lacky politicans.

      also, If LFTR (for example) had continued to be developed for the last 70 odd years, i would be reasonably confident they would have found a way to overcome the technical details.

      Just because it hasn't happend, doesnt mean it couldn't have.

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    12. Mark Duffett

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Felix MacNeill

      That, Felix, is more than a bit rich when you've just accused me of being 'deeply dishonest' on just as little cited basis.

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    13. Mark Duffett

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Paul Richards

      Amazing. I've just discovered how to solve climate change. All you need to do is mention 'nuclear energy', and global heating magically turns into a second-order issue requiring something a lot less than every proven tool at our disposal.

      Of course the Greens are not wholly responsible for the lack of effective climate action. But I do maintain that in this arena, they wield power out of all proportion to their parliamentary representation. It's an 'only Nixon could go to China' type thing…

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    14. robin linke

      stamp dealer

      In reply to Mark Duffett

      Mark, Another well reasoned critique of the Greens. They would never win on facts and logic but they don't need to. They have created a new religion with great skill which has attracted the intellectual class many of whom have a vacuum of belief at the heart of their existence.
      This group does not plough the fields or work in service industries. They enter the universities, out of which come the journalists who censor comment on nuclear , the teachers who create the curriculum which is biased against…

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    15. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Mark Duffett

      Mark Duffett wrote : "The 100% renewables push dogma manifestly isn't working" So true, because the political centre of gravity is still weighted toward conservative values. Very few of the BB generation want to let go of the 'US' Utopian dream of freedom of consumption, this includes among other things energy. The US model has failed their people and the world, why anyone would think it is clever to follow there decent down the consumption road mystifies me. But it does raise the issue of vested…

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    16. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to robin linke

      robin linke wrote : "This group does not plough the fields or work in service industries." You have done some serious projection with this statement, what figures do you base this on?
      Given the Liberal and Labour parties are lead by journalists and those in the legal profession, where else but universities have our political leaders come from?
      robin linke wrote : "The Greens have extensively tapped the public purse to sabotage Australia." In your opinion, our recorded history leaves another story…

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    17. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Mark Duffett

      What, has it become 'deeply dishonest' in your version of reality to ask for some evidence to back up a rather slanderous claim?

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    18. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to robin linke

      Thanks robin, the 'religion' word won me $5 in a bet...if only you'd said 'elites' or mentioned 'lattes' instead of just settling for the more banal 'intellectual class' I could have doubled that!

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    19. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Roger Davidson

      Stop it Robert, the guy sitting next to me just choked on his latte - that would have earned me a cool $100!

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    20. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Mark Duffett

      i'd imagine that The Greens would happily support nuclear... if you removed all fossil fuel based power generation from the equation AND sorted out to do with the waste that doesn't mean 1000 year bunkers..

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  11. Ken Oastler

    Brasin surgeon

    The changein climate is partly natural, as can be seen by looking at climatic conditiond\s in C 4th c AD and man made. The emphasis on Carbon emission is trying to avoid the main cause, which is the economic activity
    caused by population growth. The only answer is to look for overall econmic reduction. The only real answer is major population reductions. Either or both those answers are not politiccaly possible.

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    1. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Ken Oastler

      Ken Oastler wrote " Either or both those answers are not politiccaly possible." So true, the keywords 'exponential profit' 'growth' and 'exponential growth' have been dominating neoliberal rhetoric for over fifty years. The political centre of gravity in Australia is enamoured with it, and basic K6-K7 arithmetic demonstrates this is seriously flawed thinking.
      This 2001 lecture of Professor A.A. Bartlett [physicist] outline the growth issue. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umFnrvcS6AQ&feature=share&list=PL3300DB41E04CD5DF

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    2. john mills

      john mills is a Friend of The Conversation.

      artist

      In reply to Paul Richards

      Great article Andrew, excellent you tube clip Paul, thanks for that, I knew/sensed as a child we should be getting clean power from the sun, i mean HELLO!! is anybody home? now as an adult im simply disgusted in governments, i wish id have had the brains, and go, to work it out and make it happen, now we've even got clean wind power, and their still taking oil and coal out of the ground and killing us all with it. Australians should all be driving solar cars,$ 10,000 cost, and all houses should have solar or wind power. $3,000 to $4,000 cost, = $14,000 total @ 10% per anum over four years= $ 53.84 per week /over4 four years, jobs done, refund on the old cars metal 1 to $2000, so plus going out money, beat that. Try and power your (filthy coal power house) and fuel your (oil /petrol polluting car) for that per week/ not possible. sorry kids,were all going to choke.

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    3. Dave McRae

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      Robert, you've responded to parody response, but I'm assuming you're serious .. only because so many throw the "population therefore let us do nothing" up there ... and you've spelt "Small business owner" correctly

      Now Ken was just being in character with his brilliant parody of science=bad=population=bad=all=bad=bad by raising populaton

      Just in case you believe population is the problem, please see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaya_identity
      From the Kaya Eqauation replace left and right GlobalCO2Emissions with GlobalEvironmentalDegradation and the multiplier Population still washes out.

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    4. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Dave McRae

      essentially, at least from my observation, population drives demand, less population = less demand = less production = less resources required = less pollution = less impacts.

      Seems quite a sensible equation from over here.

      I wasn't saying anything was bad or good, nor was i advocating a drastic reduction in population levels (although we may not have a choice there, that's up to the planet), but population is certainly a factor in AGW.

      Even then i do qualify by saying that perhaps it is…

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    5. Doug Hutcheson

      Poet

      In reply to Ken Oastler

      "The only real answer is major population reductions" ... which will happen, whether we plan for it or not. We are already living beyond the natural limits to our population and nature will take care of that by reducing our numbers. Climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of fossil carbon is just one weapon in Nature's armoury. Like the bacteria growing in a Petrie dish, Nature will limit our population the hard way: through death of excess numbers, when the limits to our consumption are reached.

      Lemmings, cliffs, that sort of thing. Homo Stupidus stupidus has about had its time in the sun.

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  12. Graham Houghton

    Archaeologist, Writer

    It's Napoleon who is credited with the remark that only two things unite us and those two things are fear and interest. What I am hearing here and over the years in this debate generally, is the discordant music of fear. I remember as a kid in the 1950s being alarmed by predictions of a new ice age every time there was a severe winter. I remember seeing the grainy black and white footage of the results of extreme weather events around the globe, but, thankfully, not in my backyard, a smug little…

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    1. Stephen John Ralph

      carer

      In reply to Graham Houghton

      Hi Gordon

      you are damn right - its the discordant music of fear, and its blasting through speakers a hundred miles high. I'm quaking in my booties.

      I just watched a 2009 French documentary on nuclear energy posted by a commenter today.
      If all is true, we are doomed well and truly. Watch it and weep.

      And you are correct that the issue of climate change is not the only debate in town worth promoting.
      But to me it is the issue that will supercede all others in 50 years (or less), cos the others wont have much (or any) relevance.

      If as another commenter says, that 30,000+ scientists agree with climate change and the URGENT need for action, then we all should be hoping we get that action asap.

      And as yet another commenter quoted " You dont get to go to the bank on the way to the cemetery"

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    2. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Graham Houghton

      HI Graham, as an aside, use of paragraphs would help people read your post, as it is most people would scan past.

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    3. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Stephen John Ralph

      Stephen John Ralph wrote: "Watch it and weep" On the other hand we can be grateful we have not gone down same foolish path. Knowing our produce and lives are somewhat shielded from the worst issues. The documentary won an export award for the French film maker in 2012, ironic given the subject and the French Government elite bureaucracies commitment in the 1970s. Recommend getting a version of the documentary, the youtube version disappears frequently. Also continue the paying the information forward…

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    4. Stephen John Ralph

      carer

      In reply to Paul Richards

      Hi Paul

      have not seen the ZCASEP.

      I get slightly nervous about wind and ocean currents tho, perhaps a little paranoid!

      I wonder if many Americans know that the Columbia River (their 4th or 5th largest) contains toxic material that continues to leech into the river system, and has done for decades.

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    5. Dave McRae

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Graham Houghton

      Bugger - I had a rule - if the ratbag cannot be arsed to paragraph, then one is not obliged to read.

      But I thought, hey "this is TheConverssion, not Andrew Bolt, there may be something in this" .. so I tried reading the above ..

      I'm telling you, I only read 1/2 of the dribble above but it is golden "if the ratbag cannot be arsed to paragraph, then you're not obliged to read"

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    6. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Stephen John Ralph

      Stephen John Ralph wrote: "... wonder if many Americans know that the Columbia River ..... contains toxic material that continues to leech into the river system, and has done for decades." Doubtful.
      It all comes down to evolution and stages of human development. When a human, or any group of humans are accessed there is an evident 'stage of development'. Being at the stage the US is on, it is not possible to understand the values of those who carry the next level of thought. Along with this more…

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    7. Doug Hutcheson

      Poet

      In reply to Graham Houghton

      Graham, you said "I am prepared to concede that, of late, our industrial activities may be affecting rates of change and possibly even the magnitude of changes, but not by much". The point is that it does not take much to tip the balance. Earth is very sensitive to the tiny changes of the Milankovitch cycles, with a minuscule change in insolation making the difference between a balmy climate and one dominated by glaciation. If we are changing the CO2 forcing "not by much", what makes you confident that the Earth will not react as it always has to small changes in inputs?

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  13. Michael Brown

    Professional, academic, company director

    Seems you've got a bit of cognitive dissonance going on yourself Andrew:
    ".......some 10,000 years ago, erratic climate severely hindered cultivation of crops. ...........More than 40% of this accumulates in the atmosphere, which signals the termination of stable climate."
    So what did they have pre-industry, erratic or stable?

    BTW still looking for a clear description of all the factors that caused the earth to swing in and out of ice ages over the millenia, with quantification of each, and their contribution to recent variations, preferably to one decimal place.

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    1. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Michael Brown

      Michael,

      Environmental history matters not to many who frequent this forum and some who produce articles on here.

      Just let them grow old, angry and bitter because they cannot accept the fact the world will carry on without them.

      Anyone would think they have existed their entire lives without consuming or excreting a single substance.

      While they carry on screaming over predictions...the rest of us focus on the real problems facing this planet.

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  14. Dianna Arthur

    Dianna Arthur is a Friend of The Conversation.

    Environmentalist

    Christine Milne: "Labor cannot have it both ways. They cannot argue that they take the climate science seriously and at the same time subsidise massive mining and export of fossil fuels to the tune of $10 billion knowing that they are condemning our children and their grandchildren to a world of conflict, scarcity and climate disaster."

    Labor has nullified itself from being taken seriously.

    Instead we are about to vote in a political party which has even less understanding of science (than Labor), let alone understand government being the medium to manage vital services, plan for the future (except for a tiny elite) and manage private enterprise to take responsibility for the manner in which they obtain and develop products.

    I believe that the Libs have mistaken the word 'shadow' for 'anti' after witnessing the 'shadow' minister for climate on QANDA Monday night: Greg Hunt Anti-minister for Climate Action. Double-speak indeed.

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    1. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Dianna Arthur

      Quote....."Christine Milne: "Labor cannot have it both ways. They cannot argue that they take the climate science seriously and at the same time subsidise massive mining and export of fossil fuels to the tune of $10 billion"

      Well Christine...welcome to the real world!

      Quote...."knowing that they are condemning our children and their grandchildren to a world of conflict, scarcity and climate disaster."

      Has Christine ever considered the facts? The Greens were and still are Labor's play thing for preference votes and ETS schemes that feed the rich investment banking sector.

      My 4 year old son has more foresight over such matters go figure?

      Quote....."Labor has nullified itself from being taken seriously.'

      Agreed....that why they want to distance themselves from the Greens. 28% primary vote ring any bells to the navel gazers on here?

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  15. trevor prowse

    retired farmer

    Andrew Glikson----Could you obtain some data from the BOM which have some relevance to the topic. The BOM have refused to analyse their own data for me. First, ask them to work out the trend over the last 20 years of the air temperatures at the14 Australian tidal stations. Independant people have shown no increase in the trend, which to my mind suggests that non -co2 factors are increasing the global temperature.
    Second, ask the BOM to look at the recent heat wave in Australia by taking the same…

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    1. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to trevor prowse

      They have an auto-generation page that does all that. You just put in the area, the time scale and it gives you the output. Just look in their climate change section of the BoM page.

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    2. trevor prowse

      retired farmer

      In reply to Tim Scanlon

      thanks Tim, I tried for Perth and the data only went back to 1994, which is not much use when I want 1972 data

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    3. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to trevor prowse

      Another way, which I use myself, is to go to the climate records page and search for the site you want and then get the data. The first page that comes up is the current year, but you can then get all years data and download it. From there you can graph it. Of course, then understanding the patterns of natural variability are not easy, in the wheatbelt we have found 7 year moving averages help to show the cycles, but you might have to play with it a bit to find the cycles and then see what is changing in those cycles.

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  16. Andrew Glikson

    logged in via email @iinet.net.au

    Michael Brown - Not sure what you are asking?

    1. Glacial climates (~90-20 kyr) were extremely unstable, due to cold fronts and sharp oscillations of the Dansgaard_Oeschger cycles.
    2. The last glacial termination included major climate swings (older dryas >14.7 kyr cooling, Allerod-Bolling warming ~14.7-12.9 kyr, Younger dryas ~12.9-11.7 kyr).
    3. The Holocene Optimum (~9-7 kyr) involved flooding of teh Great River Valleys, retarding civilization. Sea level stopped rising about ~7-6 kyr ago.
    4. The period following ~9 kyr was relatively stable, though including minor warming during ~900-1400 AD (MWP) and cooling at ~1600-1650 (LIA).
    5. Post-industrial age GHG rise rates are the fastest recorded in Cainozoic history (since 55 Ma) and temperature rise rates fastest since the glacial D-O cycles.

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    1. Dave McRae

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Andrew Glikson

      Love your gear Andrew - thanks for this

      I grapple with Climate Change, thus I defer to the experts.

      For me, as an ex-weapons engineer, radar, missiles, lasers that sort of gear, global warming is an easy phenomena to understand.

      It really is tricky to explain to lay persons that radar is light and light is radio and microwaves and mobile phones and so on. Radar, at specific wavelengths, won't work because of atmospheric absorption and this has never been questioned .. well maybe once, tried…

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  17. Micky Mantell

    logged in via Twitter

    what rubbish - it's the hysterical idealoges who are orwellian - climate change is a natural occurance - mostly caused by the varible temp of the sun and the angle of the earths axis - humans did NOT start the last ice age or end it. We are in much more danger from the next ice age than a little warming which is a GOOD thing - IN UK during the medievel warming period it was a balmy place not because of roman V8 chariots - but due to natural heating and cooling cylces - this is Y2K mk 2 ...don't fall for it...CO2 is plant food - is sure isn't CARBON the first lie all the other lies are based on.
    The green movement is nothing more than rebadged totalitarian marixists in koala suits - out to control you

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    1. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Micky Mantell

      nice conspiracy theory you have there Micky, I suppose a cart would naturally roll down hill, perhaps slowly enough for critters to get out of the way, unless you have 6 billion people behind the cart pushing for all their worth, then its roadkill possums for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

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    2. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Micky Mantell

      So Micky, who told you climate change was a natural occurence? It wouldn't have been one of those pesky scientists, would it?

      I guess they must all have forgotten that in the meantime - thank goodness someone paid attention at school and can now remind them all!

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  18. John Nicol

    logged in via email @bigpond.com

    Andrew,

    I wondered why, in an article on "double speak" involving the discussion on climate, you had chosen to show a graph on world military expenditure rather than the last sixteen years of "global warming" as presented by the UK Bureau of Meteorology in which they show the average of the five major agencies' analysis of global temperature measurements since 1996?

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    1. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to John Nicol

      You mean the graph that wasn't by the UK Met Office that was actually by the Daily Fail/Mail which was thoroughly debunked by the UK Met Office? Or do you mean the actual data that shows a 0.16 degree warming over the decade?

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jan/11/met-office-james-delingpole
      http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/uk-met-office-responds-to-misl/61017
      http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/14/met-office-in-the-media-14-october-2012/

      It must be really hard living in denial now John, given that every reputable scientific organisation in the world disagrees with you and has the evidence to back it up.
      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=80167
      http://media-cache-lt0.pinterest.com/originals/e8/1b/31/e81b317aae3ea6282085b1f3a0f0958c.jpg

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    2. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to John Nicol

      And he didn't even include a graph showing world artichoke yields for the last 16 years - I'm sure that must be part of the conspiracy too!

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    3. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Felix MacNeill

      that's it! the artichokes are behind the green global mind controlling conspiracy!! aided and abbetted by those shady broccoli!!

      "all greens are equal, but some greens are greener then others"

      on the other hand, as CO2 is plant food, wouldn't the greens be advocating more carbon in the atmosphere?

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    4. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      Damn, now they all know about the artichoke conspiracy as well as the broccoli menace - I must learn to keep my mouth shut!

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  19. Liam J

    logged in via email @gmail.com

    We are in the age of consequences, at least for the poor, so when will justice bring consequences to the rich?

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    1. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Liam J

      Last Liam.

      Pollies are subservient to their rich benefactors otherwise they would never be pollies.

      Greens are no different, only they want total control of natural resource profits through human exclusion of everyone else from it, not by any balanced means of all man being equal.

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    2. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Wade Macdonald wrote:"Greens are no different, only they want total control of natural resource profits through human exclusion of everyone else from it, not by any balanced means of all man being equal." That is a projection of your value system on to the green values. "If they say this, it must mean that, because that's the way 'I' think."
      Seriously the values held by the greens, are simple they put humans and their environment at the apex of the economic pyramid.
      Labour and Liberals [ particularly the neoliberal in both parties ] put the corporation and profit above humans on the economic pyramid.
      This clearly does not clash with your values. Would appreciate your understanding of the 'green' values though, its ok to not value theirs.

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    3. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Paul if the Greens were putting humans at the top of the apex then why do they seek to ban sustainable stakeholders from their local environments?

      The Precautionary principal of science may wash with the navel gazers against environmentally abusive industries but the Greens push for large areas of gaia against the will of sound local public policy as well.

      They are considered simple because their policies would only serve to clog up our court system with complaints.

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    4. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Wade Macdonald wrote :"..... then why do they seek to ban sustainable stakeholders from their local environments?"
      Because the stakeholders are 'sustainable' by your value system, based on that they appear fine. Which is understandable, appropriate for your stage of development and all good.
      "Stages of development" refers to the life work of Dr. Clare Graves.

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    5. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Paul Richards

      Quote..."Because the stakeholders are 'sustainable' by your value system, based on that they appear fine."

      Ahhh, I see. The value system or 'precautionary' system promoted by the Greens Party is, ban sustainable stakeholders based on values not evidence?

      Pretty much sums up the 'values' I understood to be true. Thanks for the confirmation.

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    6. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Wade Macdonald wrote: "..... sustainable stakeholders based on values" The value system or 'precautionary' system promoted by the Greens Party is, ban sustainable stakeholders based on values not evidence?
      Well put, the evidence the stakeholders you 'imagine' are sustainable do not hold the same values, so true.
      Simple really, the environment and people are second to the 'stakeholders', so your parties or personal values will always clash with the Greens.
      Your values require 'faith' in the…

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    7. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Yup, if you check out the Greens' policies 'total control of natural resources' is right up there.

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    8. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Wow, that video should be used in all first year university courses to illustrate how to argue from logic and evidence.

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    9. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Paul Richards

      Quote..."Simple really, the environment and people are second to the 'stakeholders', so your parties or personal values will always clash with the Greens."

      No Paul....if you understand the word 'sustainable' and what that means then there is no environmental detriment and values to run an agenda against.

      This is the problem with many Greens supporters and the party themselves. They have no concept of balance through evidence.

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    10. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Wade Macdonald wrote " .... 'sustainable' and what that means then there is no environmental detriment and values to run an agenda against."

      " ...... no environmental detriment and values run an agenda against" So true you are right, anyone who does not hold or grasp the values of the evolved green thinker and those on higher levels. Simple has no grasp of the meaning of 'sustainability' based of their values.
      A very good example of an earlier stage of development is the overall population of Australian indigenous. They fail to understand the values of the Europeans who 'stole' their land, they still do ask any of them. They are as dogmatic in their belief our culture has little to offer. just as you are about the green values.
      This does not make them inferior, less intelligent or stupid, just have a less evolved set of values. If you keep insisting you hold the values of an unevolved stage of human development thats ok.

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    11. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Felix MacNeill

      i love how he refers to the precautionary principle.

      The Precautionary Principle states that "a lack of full scientific certainty is no justification for delaying action to prevent damage occuring to the environment." (n.b. environment includes flora, fauna, water, air, microbes in the soil and yes, human population and communities)

      I would say that, oh I don't know, stopping CSG in it's tracks (which i believe is a policy of the Greens) while there being no scientific certainty as to the…

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    12. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      Robert McDougall wrote: "I suspect Wade may be confusing his own motivations with the Greens"
      Good comment, projecting our values onto others is part of a natural response.
      Our responses being triggered emotionally by reliving earlier emotional events, awareness of these triggers is the key. Highly emotional reactions are part of the chaos genrally seen around a time of transition through old ideas, some fight against the new values and fail to grow. Others do not and learn new values and evolve to the next stage. It is not easy, friends and colleagues do not look the same, cannot grasp your thinking. Choice has to be made.
      Questioning 'why' people have the values they do, needs true critical thought. Putting cognitive bias aside, being aware of our bias and we all have them. Not easy, many do not develop.

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    13. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Paul Richards

      Thanks paul - I'd forgotten how startling that was.

      The two would make a great book-end: when to shut up versus when to talk.

      (For the record, I actually thought that, in context Abbott's private comment to the US officer was not unreasonable or offensive, and I don't see why he couldn't simply have said as much himself. Most people would have agreed with him. I guess he just had to clamp his jaw to stop him attacking the journalist...)

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    14. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Paul Richards

      Quote....."anyone who does not hold or grasp the values of the evolved green thinker and those on higher levels."

      No Paul, bans without evidence is 'evolved ignorance' and has no relevance to values or higher thinking.

      The analogy you placed above is typical of the unobstanciated exclusion of Australians today, promoted by the Green Party policies without evidence of unsustainability.

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    15. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      Robert,

      If the definition of the precautionary principal was not abused there would be no problem. We all know environmental zealots have no concept of sound environmental advocacy versus agendered hyperbowl claimed as science.

      Also, I am talking about sustainable activities which are abused by Green Party principals and policies, not CSG. Care to provide a relevant argument?

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    16. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Felix MacNeill

      Felix MacNeill wrote: " ...I don't see why he couldn't simply have said as much himself..." True, clear really. He must judge others by his standards so believed he had to shut up out of fear. Not confidence inspiring to see a leader frozen in fear, why not simply just walk away?

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    17. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Wade Macdonald wrote : ..... bans without evidence is 'evolved ignorance' and has no relevance to values or higher thinking." Please understand at this point these 'critical' points of difference are in your head.
      You will need to articulate the points if you want a considered response. If it is just heckling that's ok, not problem, all good.

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    18. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Paul Richards

      Quote...."Questioning 'why' people have the values they do, needs true critical thought. Putting cognitive bias aside, being aware of our bias and we all have them. Not easy, many do not develop."

      Now you are starting to talk reality. I am environmentally aware and have many concerns for the environment. These values I hold differ from the Greens Party when exclusion disguised as conservation begins and ignorance instead of sound public policy starts.

      You will all be better off to learn the difference as well.

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    19. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Wade Macdonald wrote : "I am environmentally aware and have many concerns for the environment."
      Which environment, the one modified by humans over ten thousand years or the ecosystem?
      Wade Macdonald wrote : "You will all be better off to learn the difference as well."
      I do. Which one are you saying we put first?

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    20. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      "agendered hyperbowl" i assume you are providing an example in your comment.

      I was referring to the legal definition of the Precuationary Principle, with the Greens stand against CSG being an example of being in accord with the legal Principle.

      I suppose "environmental zealots" are just as bad as "capitalist zealots" and one may well produce the other.

      If you could perhaps detail which sustainable activities you feel have been abused by Green Party principles and policies i might then be able to discuss the issue.

      As your comment stands, i can't really determine what your argument is, relevant or otherwise.

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    21. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Robert McDougall

      Quote...."If you could perhaps detail which sustainable activities you feel have been abused by Green Party principles and policies i might then be able to discuss the issue."

      If you don't know by now, then you must be completely mute to the world around you.

      You have just consolidated my argument about many greens voters and their simple inability to see the world from an impartial perspective.

      And these fools wonder why they will never go mainsteam in politics no matter how disgruntled voters get with Labor and Liberal?

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    22. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Paul Richards

      Quote....."Which environment, the one modified by humans over ten thousand years or the ecosystem?"

      There is no such thing as 'which environment' it is just the environment.

      Same goes for ecosystem. The state of it at any point in time doesn't change the definition.

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    23. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Paul, you can't say "or the ecosystem" as an alternative unless it simply didn't exist at the present time.

      As it still does exist...your statement isn't factual.

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    24. Wade Macdonald

      Technician

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Paul,

      Sorry for the initial responses (poor wording) but your sentence implies that there is currently no planetary ecosystem. Hence you cannot state 'which environment' as a choice for a situation that has never existed because of man.

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    25. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Wade Macdonald wrote: " ...cannot state 'which environment' as a choice for a situation that has never existed because of man."
      You could see it that way, which is ok.
      Lets simplify it, currently in economics the environment does not factor in the 'balance sheet' unless provision is made in law and forced.
      Do you believe our ecosystem should be automatically accounted for when factoring in human activity of use and damage?

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    26. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Wade, that is so spectacular a cop out, when given a fair and open opportunity to explain what you were talking about and outline the bases for your accusation, that it impossible to take your comments here seriously.

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    27. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Wade, because i don't percieve the sustainable activities you claim to have been abused by Green party policies, are you implying that my intellectual and observational abilities are challenged somehow? What if i see no abuse of sustainable activities as there are none immediately apparent to support your position.

      And you have assumed that i am a greens voter and then extended your assessment to all people who vote greens as also being somehow intellectually and observationally challenged…

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    28. Robert McDougall

      Small Business Owner

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      lol, wade,

      the planet was a wide range of ecosystems that combime to form a planetary ecosystem.

      An environment can differ from an ecosystem, i.e. the environment inside the classroom was stifling as the airconditioners have broken down. There is no ecosystem in a class room apart from the interaction of humans with the atmosphere, i.e. breathing.

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    29. Liam J

      logged in via email @gmail.com

      In reply to Wade Macdonald

      Joe Hildebrand is just the Rights current hysteric, their previous screamers are now all too fat to put on telly.

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  20. Andrew Glikson

    logged in via email @iinet.net.au

    Many of those who do not accept peer reviewed climate science, nor the observations of the world's premier climate research organizations, never tire from recycling the argument "the world did not warm for 16 years".

    (1) This is not true - look at the Brerkeley Temperature report which integrates data from NASA, NOAA, Hadley-Met)
    http://berkeleyearth.org/available-resources/ - 2005 and 2010 were the warmest in the instrumental record.

    (2) The interplay between emitted CO2 and CH4 on the one…

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    1. John Nicol

      logged in via email @bigpond.com

      In reply to Andrew Glikson

      Dear Andrew,

      I am surprised that you have quoted the common statement that "2005 and 2010 were the warmest in the instrumental record" (I think 2012 gets a guernsey as well) when this is quite obviously going to be the case when the world has warmed on average since the last LIA about 170 years ago.

      The same phenomenon (almost exactly) is observed when a a modulation of higher frequency but lesser amplitude, is superimposed on a sinusoidal wave - at the top of the cycle for the major sine…

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    2. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to John Nicol

      John, I notice that your reading comprehension skills are somewhat lacking. Did you need a spare 3 year old to help?

      The NASA link alone shows change in climate since 1880 to be 0.8 degrees, and the UK Met Office data is stated as 0.16, 0.15 and 0.16 degrees per decade based on the three different datasets. This just shows that you are quite keen to cherry pick to misrepresent.

      You clearly missed the statements about fitting a linear line to a cherry picked interval to get a figure of 0.05 degrees, you are also not adjusting values to remove covariates. The fact that the hottest ten years on record have occurred since 1998 seems to skip your notice as well.

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  21. Ivan Quail

    maverick

    Thanks for that Andrew
    To Gerard,Nickolas and others

    The man who wrote the “Communist Manifesto”, Carl Marx observed that a significant proportion of people could be persuaded to believe that which they would otherwise not believe and to do things which they would otherwise not do.

    News Ltd and other media outlets including Television and Radio beholden to Big Coal, Oil and Gas have done a good job of brain washing some of the public through a concerted campaign of misinformation, untruths…

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  22. Ho Trieu Ngoc Luan

    logged in via Facebook

    I found attempts at either denying the science or belittling the consequences of carbon emissions are often results of short term view, in fact too short, in the realm of climate change analysis. Making inference on climate change from sixteen years of data is unacceptable (see comments exchanged between D Clerke and others at https://theconversation.edu.au/there-is-no-such-thing-as-climate-change-denial-11763 ). We don't point to a short term rise or fall in temperature in sixteen years and conclude…

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    1. Stephen John Ralph

      carer

      In reply to Ho Trieu Ngoc Luan

      This is becoming an endless saga of "you say, I say".

      Ultimately it's a 50-50 bet that one side is right, the other wrong.

      Cant we just leave this argument aside for say - 10 years - and revisit the argument.

      One side is not going to convince the other side that their position is right.

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    2. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Ho Trieu Ngoc Luan

      Ho Trieu Ngoc Luan wrote : ".... otherwise 'newspeak', 'double-speak' problems mentioned in this article will continue and delay necessary actions." Only if we choose not to recognise the strategy of misinformation employed by the tobacco industry and there 'think tanks' to promote their profitability.
      These 'think tank' strategies are no conspiracy theory, they are real and very well documented as part of human history.
      So far over 33,700 actual climate scientists have agreed the planet is telling us there is global warming.
      Only 34 climate scientists disagree.
      Just 'why' anyone else needs to dispute this is really the issue. What exactly is their personal stage of development and where does their value system lie? Are we really going to be deceived again?

      37,000 vs 34 - what are the probabilities the 34 are right?

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    3. Ho Trieu Ngoc Luan

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Paul Richards

      Yes Paul, my Nokia calculator shows that it is approximately 0.1% chance that they are right.
      I am no climate scientist but by my own thinking since my childhood when I see thick smoke coming up from a bush fire or from a power station or from a steel foundry I think that the smoke will go walk about in the sky between the limited air surrounding our earth and the vacuum of the vast universe. Smoke and more smoke and one day smoke does not have any more room for wandering so they form a layer of smoke around the whole earth which is like a greenhouse for the whole world and of course temperature in the greenhouse must go up. I am glad that my childish thought is not far from the 33.700 climate scientists. Silly me at that time because I thought that a warming earth would be good for agriculture until I was told by climate scientists the contrary late in the last century.
      Thank you for the numbers because I love to work with numbers.

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    4. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Michael Shand

      Michael Shand wrote : " ..... you cant tell whether its better to leave your house by the front door or the window on the second floor." Thanks for the comment.
      Can understand you writing this, these views were mine once. Since grasping the 'stages of human development' and value systems different groups have evolved to, the 'why' is understood. All that can be done is raising awareness. Everyone needs to grow and develop themselves, collectively we are still in the first tier of development. With…

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    5. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Ho Trieu Ngoc Luan

      Ho Trieu Ngoc Luan wrote: "Silly me at that time because I thought that a warming earth would be good for agriculture" Hmmm ......
      Humans will be displaced, places will freeze the Northwest passage has opened up, life on earth will change.
      The incredible implications of the thermohaline circulation change in direction could indeed change Australia. Modelling of this current change has demonstrated a greening of the WA, more rain water and abundance of biomatter. This is the problem, the implications…

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    6. Dave McRae

      logged in via Twitter

      In reply to Stephen John Ralph

      Your 50-50 assertion is rubbish Stephen.

      You will be delighted to hear (if you're genuine) that you can get great fantastic odds as a denier at climate betting sites.

      Intrade offers monthly temperature betting - they give deniers a 0.45C head start and have odds that the month will be cooler than +0.45C of 30year average. Last December, $1000 contract with the denier stumping up just $5, that's just about 200:1

      If you're sure it's 50-50, offer up a contract of odds like that (or even $10 for my/their $100) and you'll be taken up in an instant - let us know if you are pls.

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    7. Stephen John Ralph

      carer

      In reply to Dave McRae

      My point is not how many are for or against this "debate".
      If you take TWO sides - one side saying Yea, the other Nay..........no matter how many on opposing sides, or how unequal the sides. There are only TWO outcomes - right or wrong.

      If you take Galilieo - he was ONE person, and on the opposing side - the church. (lets say 33,340)

      Two opinions about the earth and the sun - one opinion right, one wrong. = 50%

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  23. Andrew Glikson

    logged in via email @iinet.net.au

    THE ROLE OF WATER VAPOR IN GLOBAL WARMING

    This argument has been multiply recycled and multiply refuted over the last 10 years or so:

    1. The concentation of water vapor in the atmosphere depends on air temperature - high over the tropics and low over polar regions.
    2. Air temperature depends mainly on insolation, oscillating at +/-0.1 Watt/m2 since the mid-20th century, and on the level of greenhouse gases, which has risen by about ~2.3 Watt/m2 since the onset of the industrial age.
    3…

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  24. Andrew Glikson

    logged in via email @iinet.net.au

    SULPHUR EMISSIONS MASK GLOBAL WARMING

    http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2011/07/06/Sulfur-emissions-mask-global-warming/UPI-57601309979567/

    The cooling effect of sulphur emissions resulting from China's massive rise in coal-fired power stations has served to mask the impact of global warming during the last ten years, a new study shows.

    BEIJING, July 6 (UPI) -- The cooling effect of sulfur emissions resulting from China's massive rise in coal-fired power stations has…

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  25. Ivan Quail

    maverick

    Thanks for that further info Andrew.
    In addition to Sulphur in the air the oceans have been working overtime to absorb the additional Co2.

    To those earlier posts advocating nuclear power.
    The Tides of the Kimberly can generate 10 times more electricity than we currently generate in the whole of Australia. Installed National generating capacity is about 60Gwatts

    Too far away you think. A 6G/watt (6,000Mw) bulk HVDC power line can transmit the power to Sydney for a cost of 1c per Kw hr…

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  26. Ivan Quail

    maverick

    to Stephen John Ralph
    It is not a 50-50 chance. It is 33,700-34

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  27. Andrew Glikson

    logged in via email @iinet.net.au

    THE BASIC TENETS OF CLIMATE AND PALEO-CLIMATE SCIENCE

    There are some who overlook the fundemental tenets of climate science and paleo-climate science, founded on the basic laws of physics (Planck constant, Stephan-Bolzmann and Krishhoff laws of blackbody radiation), and who will try and negate the greenhouse focing effects of CO2, CH4 and N2O under any pretext.

    Beginning with the 18th century, the onset of combustion of coal, oil and gas which underpin the industrial age has led to the release…

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  28. Henry Franceschi

    Director, NCD Treatment Centers

    It’s time to look at the real world impasse global warming faces.

    Fact: We’re coming out of an era when if harm was done to others, organizations and laws with teeth existed to deal with that harm WITHIN states. Since pre-2000 very little was taking place that could cause major harm BETWEEN states, planet-wide, we failed to develop an organization with laws that had the teeth to control the harm occurring BETWEEN states.

    Fact: Globalization completely turned that around. Globalization accelerated…

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    1. Andrew Glikson

      logged in via email @iinet.net.au

      In reply to Henry Franceschi

      Henry,

      You are right - the tribal segreation of humanity renders joint action to mitigate climate change almost impossible. Organizations do exist whose role, in principe, is to do just what you are suggesting, mainly the UN and the IPCC. However without the full economic and political support of the major powers (US, Europe, China, Russia, Japan) and the large interneational corporaltions they are unable to mitigate global warming.

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    2. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Andrew Glikson

      However, there may be hope that, if sufficient national, sub-national, local and even small community/imndividual actors start taking decisive action - and there is at least some evidence of this - we may achieve some kind of tipping point (sorry, I know that's a rather vague Gladwellian term, but there is some evidence for a momentum effect in human affairs)...

      I am often reminded of that famous old quote from Audre Lorde: 'The master's tools will never dismantle the master's house.' Maybe we just have to hope that enough spontaneous, grassroots action arises to transform the system - but I can't see it happening voluntarily or easily.

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    3. robin linke

      stamp dealer

      In reply to Andrew Glikson

      To Henry Franceschi & Andrew Glikson,

      I joined The Conversation a couple of weeks ago to get more information about issues which affected our county's future, climate change and its consequences being one of them.

      I have been dismayed at what appears to be a closed group mind set. 'We must cut our carbon emissions' is the chant of 90% of responses to the threat of global warming, but there is almost a complete absence of reference to Nuclear & Hydro power which are the only two base load…

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    4. Ivan Quail

      maverick

      In reply to robin linke

      In reply to robin linke
      If you look 3 or so posts before yours you will see my post on Tidal energy. (Hydro) which can generate ten times more power than we currently do without the risks. Nuclear I am happy to debate but have been deleted before for being off topic.

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    5. robin linke

      stamp dealer

      In reply to Ivan Quail

      Hi Ivan,
      I did read your letter re tidal power. The Kimberley project has been mooted for 20 years and on paper is a wonderful oportunity and worth bringing up. The cost was considered too high. The other point you make is HVDC transmission. I think this operates over short distances such as supplying Copehagen from the Swedish nuclear plants at Malmo. But there are difficulties I believe for longer transmission.

      You will remember the Pangaea nuclear waste project offered to WA by…

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    6. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to robin linke

      robin linke wrote : "........ damage done to Australia's future by the Green politics of fear and ignorance"
      Since you raised ignorance, my comment on the industries failure to step up and store waste safely for two hundred thousand years has been ignored. Hardly critical thinking if you throw around other ignorance if you deliberately ignore the waste issue. Comfortably paying it forward 6000 generations.
      Still waiting for your response on this Award Winning French / German video using critical thinking naturally. Or are you still going to remain ignorant about the nuclear industry?
      Waste: The Nuclear Nightmare (distributed by ARTE France)
      http://youtu.be/xDNGWKCS39M

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    7. Paul Richards

      strategic foresight

      In reply to Ivan Quail

      Ivan Quail wrote : "Nuclear I am happy to debate but have been deleted before for being off topic."
      robin linke is ignorant about the 'real world' nuclear waste issues in the industry, ask him to explain how anyone could trust an industry with their record.
      Documentary: Waste: The Nuclear Nightmare (distributed by ARTE France)
      http://youtu.be/xDNGWKCS39M

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    8. Henry Franceschi

      Director, NCD Treatment Centers

      In reply to robin linke

      My point is total simplicity: neither you nor I have the means of forcing the major powers to do any more than they’re currently doing – nothing. I believe countries are doing nothing because they’re not idiots; they know no one country can provide the concrete geological impact the planet needs to be returned to health. And no one country wants to be “the first one to jump in the water at the count of three.” That simply makes that country "the dummy who jumped in first."

      I accept that all I…

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    9. Chris O'Neill

      Telecommunications Engineer

      In reply to Henry Franceschi

      "And no one country wants to be “the first one to jump in the water at the count of three.” That simply makes that country "the dummy who jumped in first.""

      This, of course, is a tragedy of the commons. We are going to have demonstrated to us whether "tragedy of the commons" is a fallacy (or not) as some people believe: http://www.pelicanweb.org/solisustv08n04page5.html :

      "The main error was to adopt a key proposition of the free market, and of Adam Smith’s, that man is a rational being who…

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    10. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Chris O'Neill

      Except, of curse, it may in fact be the case that the country/ies that move/s first actually get a benefit by getting ahead of something everyone is going to have to do anyway.

      I always rather like the observation by the very-economically-rational SMH journalist Peter Hartcher in his book 'The Sweet Spot' that, even if climate change turned out to be false, transforming our energy system to run on renewables made great long-term economic sense.

      If we keep waiting until we get all the ducks in a line we are indeed doomed. But we don't have to. Sure, it would help, but history never unfolds that way - rather, I believe, you get momentum effects - it's still early days but momentum tends to be slow to get started but, once it gets going, it can be extraordinarily powerful. So, for all that coordinated international action would be great, and would get things done far cheaper and quicker, it isn't essential to at least achieve 'survival level' results...

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  29. Andrew Glikson

    logged in via email @iinet.net.au

    I append the climate change statement by the US Geological Society:

    "Geological Society of America: Position Statement.: Decades of scientific research have shown that climate can change from both natural and anthropogenic causes. The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities…

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  30. Neil Gibson

    Retired Electronics Design Engineer

    Climate change certainly has Orwellian overtones with it's own version of Winston Smith who was forever altering past history to agree with present politics in his job at the Ministry of Truth. Past temperature records are being tampered with at the Global Warming Ministry of Truth at NASA .
    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/tracking-us-temperature-fraud/
    Unfortunately the Ministry does not control the internet!

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    1. Felix MacNeill

      Environmental Manager

      In reply to Neil Gibson

      Neil, if the conspiracy is that powerful, involving as it does all the world's science bodies and even percolating as far as the US Defense Department, do you actually believe they wouldn't find a way to shut down dissidents on the internet?

      I guess that must be why places like Climate Depot and people like Watts, Morano and Nova are still extant - the great conspirators are cunning and powerful enough to produce vast bodies of data and a veritable avalanche of scientific publications, but are too stupid to look up someone's address and send the goons around.

      If you think calmly and clearly about the facts, there are really only two rational conclusions you could draw:
      (1) it's time to go bush before the conspiracy catches you, or
      (2) you're being paranoid.

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  31. Andrew Glikson

    logged in via email @iinet.net.au

    For those who repeat "the world has not warmed for 16 years", look at;

    Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1101–1116, 2011 pg 1107 Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850–2005 S. J. Smith1, J. van Aardenne2,*, Z. Klimont3, R. J. Andres4, A. Volke1, and S. Delgado Arias1

    The warming since 1980 was caused by clean air legislation in the the US, UK and Europe, which resulted in dissipation of the previous (~1950 - .1975) sulphur aerosol masking effect. The sharp rise in SO2 emissions since 2000 is again masking some of the warming.

    The atmospheric residence time of SO2 in the stratosphere is no longer than a couple of years. It is like taking aspirin and claiming one is cured from malaria.

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  32. Andrew Glikson

    logged in via email @iinet.net.au

    Henry

    Regarding your reference to the geological state of the planet.

    If you write me at geospec@iinet.net.au I will send you a recent paper on "The geological scale of climate change"

    Andrew
    23-2-2013

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  33. Ivan Quail

    maverick

    To robin linke
    Robin: The whole point of HVDC is long distance bulk power transmission. The high cost of AC to DC and back to AC converter stations is the same whether the distance between is 180Km o r 2800Km.
    It is cheaper to build and operate an HVDC power line than a natural gas pipeline that supplies the same amount of usable energy.
    Why would anyone build a water pipeline to Perth when for the same money you could build an HVDC power line and have power during the day and desalinate water…

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    1. robin linke

      stamp dealer

      In reply to Ivan Quail

      Ivan, If the cost of HVDC is so cheap and efficient then where does it operate?
      The climate change debate is riddled with claims of technological break throughs eg base load solar which do not exist in any meaningful way.
      You lose all credibility in condeming nuclear waste repositories when they exist in advanced countries where strata has been stable for millions of years. You predict that millions will died due to man made carbon emissions but reject base load carbon free power generation. Renewables cannot do this.

      Six coal fired power stations work & canbe built almost anywhere. ditto for nuclear except they are carbon free.
      There are very very few locations for 1000MW+ tidal power stations.

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  34. Ivan Quail

    maverick

    To robin linke
    The Malmo and Bass strait links were HVDC to go underwater. The Vic to SA and NSW to Qlnd links use HVDC to syncronise and stabilise the respective grids.You can find many more on a world map in addition to those I mentioned in my first post. including the 3 gorges dam over 1500Km. Figures from ABB confirm the 1c per Kwhr for bulk transmission greater than 6Gw capacity.

    http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=hvdc%20power%20transmission%20lines%20%2B%20map&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CDkQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FList_of_HVDC_projects&ei=3UEqUeyUC8uWkQXu4IDIAw&usg=AFQjCNFknJ_rXCVD-e1aqVaymG4BtI4p6Q

    Mr John Lewis was an engineer with the Public Works Departmennt. He assessed the Tidal resource from 25 sites out of 50 surveyed as being able to drive 300,000 Mw.

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  35. Trevor McGrath

    Pharmacist Hobby:climatology

    Another scientist trolling for a laugh from the flat earthers. The earth at my place has cooled from 1430 until 2200, there for the cooling trend must mean that there is no global warming, the last 16 years or whatever the flat earthers are on about is less than a sparrow fart as a part of any real time scale to do with geological time, or the trends of civilizations reacting to changing environmental conditions. This is so ho hum now, some one who can read and write states the current knowledge and we all sit back and laugh as the fruit cakes arc up yet again. In the end it will end up like the board of the White Star Line sitting around discussing the fate of RMS Titanic. “but it was unsinkable”. Cheers

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  36. Trevor McGrath

    Pharmacist Hobby:climatology

    I don't believe in the virgin birth therefore i can not call my self a Christian, but I don't go and stand outside the church every sunday morning and bitch and fart about those who do, so why, why , why do those who do not want to believe in the science insist on wanking on in these type of forums where we want to discuss science. Those who are earth centric, creationist or intelligent designers i'm sure have their own places of discussion, why do they want to bother with nut cases like us. When the rapture occurrs the true believers will be risen up, so it wont really matter will it. Cheers

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