After a longish lull, the ghastly images emanating from Houla have re-focused world attention on Syria and its rapidly deteriorating internal condition, as Mat Hardy pointed out on The Conversation yesterday.
Seared by images of dead children and butchered adults, the globe has been swept by renewed calls for “action” and the Western callers for armed intervention are back in vogue.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague raised superficial hopes with a tough message to Russia to fall in line with world thinking, but after a visit to Moscow he predictably backed into the corner of ”urging” restraint on the Syrian regime.
Bob Carr, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, provided a convenient pointer to the essential problem at the global diplomatic level during his hand-wringing display on Lateline.
There was talk of the general context and the widespread desire to act under the rubric of R2P (Right to Protect). Asked, however, why armed intervention in Libya was possible but not in Syria, he was immediately clear: Russia and China had no specific position on the Libyan affair, but they certainly do on Syria.
Because the two countries have veto power in the Security Council, the United Nations can do little more than condemn events in Syria and try to persuade the outliers to come round to a majority view. As Hague found out, again, and Carr indicated, that is a tough task at best and an impossible one at worst.
Complicating this, as Nasya Bahfen suggests obliquely, the rise of the social media has both accelerated and aggravated coverage as well as interpretation of these undeniably complex issues.
This is well illustrated by a Syrian episode a week earlier that got far less coverage. It was reported that a pro-revolution chef had poisoned the food of Bashar al-Assad’s “crisis committee” members, including Bashar’s brother-in-law Assef Shawkat.
For several hours there were swirling reports, rumours really, that the leaders had all died, Bashar had left the country, there was a military coup. A few hours later it had all passed, though elements of the story remain unresolved: some alleged victims have subsequently appeared on television but others, conspicuously have not.
The mainstream media and its feeders like AP and Reuters stayed resolutely away, or at least distant, from the story, clearly suspicious about what was really happening. There has been a profound difference with the Houla story however, as there was much earlier when the first bombardments of Homs began. The immediate sighting of bodies on social media has made the story somehow more reliable than one where they were not on show. That might seem a crass point, but it is an important issue that leads directly to the matter of interpretation.
As Charles Glass, an experienced Middle East observer and one with a specific interest in Syria points out in the latest New York Review of Books, the complexities of Syria make it a particularly difficult issue.
Yes, Russia does have a Syrian naval base in Tartous at the edge of the Mediterranean, and has done so since 1971. (Coincidentally, Tartous is also on the edge of the Alawite heartland that provides Bashar al-Assad’s core support). That was definitely not the case with Libya.
But as Glass points out, there is much more to it than that, and a constant problem throughout this whole awful upheaval in Syria has been the abiding disregard for the on-the -ground social realities that make resolution so difficult. From the beginning, the complexities have been ironed out to make the “regime change” call fit the contours that appeared elsewhere in the “Arab Awakening”.
For a start, there is the coalition of minorities that have supported Bashar, and his father earlier, in basically providing a buffer zone against the majority Sunni community. Unlike Jordan, that has given Syria a secular rather than Islamic state constitution. While figures vary, the Sunni community is generally put at around 74% with “other Muslim” (mostly Alawite but including Shia) around 16% with Christians around 10%.
Within that, though, are important distinctions. Kurds in the north are around 9% and an immediate concern to Turkey which, partly as a result, has shown keen interest in leading pressure on Syria. Then, given the Shia minority and the backdrop of the massive reversal in Sunni-Shia relations in Iraq as a result of the war, Iran has a profound interest in Syria, as does Saudi for very different reasons. The Iran-Syria connection, then, has been well commented upon at the popular and general level, but not necessarily well understood.
It is because of this immense complexity that the easy interpretations placed on Syrian events have not always been satisfying or sound. Even in his report to the UN, immediately prior to Houla, on the observer mission activities, Ban Ki-Moon indicated that sometimes things were not always what they seemed: he accepts that there are what he called “established terrorist groups” at work, and that the so-called “Syrian opposition” was not at all united.
Much earlier and consistently, International Crisis Group reports have made the same comments but not received wide coverage, perhaps because that muddies the “easy” story. At least some lessons seem now to have been learned from Iraq, Tunisia and Libya, however, and from the on-going revelations emerging from the Egyptian presidential elections.
None of this is to vouchsafe for the Syrian regime, far from it, but it is to say that resolution is far more difficult than having William Hague or Bob Carr exert additional pressure seeking some sort of “change” (the questions there being to whom and in what form?). Yes, there are victims in Houla, sadly so.
Charles Glass, though, is only the most recent observer to suggest that change will produce other victims: one Christian contact said that while he favoured the revolution, outside manoeuvring was pushing him into the arms of the regime.
He did not want to be there, but local conditions deemed it so. The social media sphere may demand immediate and any action, then, but rational thought is now in even greater demand.
Yuri Pannikin
Director
Nicely elaborated, Prof. Yes, for some geopolitical situations, there are no easy answers.
Mat Hardy
Lecturer in Middle East Studies at Deakin University
Come on! Brian! Don't spoil the narrative with any actual understanding of the situation. It's much better that everyone thinks its the case of a noble rebel alliance fighting against the Damascus Death Star. With Twitter.
Yuri Pannikin
Director
Matt, question is: Who's gonna be Obi-Wan?
(But I've reserved Han for myself . . .)
Mat Hardy
Lecturer in Middle East Studies at Deakin University
My students would say that I'm more of a Jabba The Hutt type figure.
Wei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
I notice from Yuri posting over the past weeks, Yuri seems to be quite supportive of war. Thanks Brain, well written and balance. Unfortunately, like Libya, the Syrians have no said in their own affair. US and NATO will try to enforce their selfish interest on everybody. The analysis of the Russian FM on the so-called Assad massacre will not be heard: http://www.rt.com/news/peace-plan-syria-regime-374/; Opposition inside Syria want to work with Assad government while those outside are the one that…
Read moreYuri Pannikin
Director
Comrade Chua wrote: "I notice from Yuri posting over the past weeks, Yuri seems to be quite supportive of war. "
Au contraire mon ami. In that context, I have only one goal, and that is to fight the fascists of left and right. Lets call it 'self determination' or even democracy.
Like the Spanish Communists did of course, but the current mob seem have got themselves all tied up in some sort of soft and sooky pacifism. It will not work my friend. You only pander to the monsters.
Brad Stringer
logged in via Facebook
When observing these events through a prism of some geopolitical chess board it all seems like a re-run of a banal movie.
It's the (incomprehensible) individual human tragedies that get to me; the 'victims in Houla'.
Brad Stringer
logged in via Facebook
I forgot to add my thanks for your insights Brian.
Peter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
Spot on Brian.
Syria is an uneasy assemblage of rival regions and religions with a poisonous history of foreign interference. Thin ice indeed for anyone charging in with a simplistic solution.
But it would be nice if we could stop people killing children. Ugly stuff.
William Bruce
Artist
Actually I think there is a simplistic solution, it is genuine, publicly visible uniform Justice.
And there are far better solutions than backing violent interventions (unless you are a war profiteer).
Nick Osbaldiston
Lecturer in Sociology, Monash University at Monash University
I appreciate the sentiments behind this article and of course, nothing is ever as clear cut as the social media seems to lay out. There is a definite process of binarization going on and at times this can be quite damaging. But the question is really, what is to be done? People don't have forgetful memories. Bosnia et al. plays on their minds. No wonder there is such murmurings around.
Anthony Nolan
Ruminant
Thanks for shedding considerable light on the subject.
William Bruce
Artist
After a quick click around I found these links for what it is worth.
-------------------
US helping to train and arm Islamic mercenaries to fight in Syria
http://kurdnas.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=371:us-helping-to-train-and-arm-islamic-mercenaries-to-fight-in-syria&catid=36:reports1&Itemid=56
______________
Britain admits funding Syria rebels
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/230355.html
______________
“Right to protect” is it?….Is this the old "reversion of truth trick" yet again?..."Protect", like we have protected those in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and elsewhere for over 40yrs now?
Another intervention purporting to be about "helping" "the local people"?
Nothing here about helping undisclosed war profiteers/criminals?
Again, why nothing in this article about about who is paying & arming these murdering "rebels or mercenaries" huge amounts of money?
Joseph Bernard
Director
follow the money trail..
and now social media to fuel the violence.. hurray..
thank you Brian for perspective
Yuri Pannikin
Director
William, you really do have to be more critical of the references you quote. Do you believe everything you read on the internet?
For example, your first reference is from a Robert Tilford, an American of unknown veracity and dubious relevance. The second reference is a complete lie. Here is what David Cameron said about assistance for Syria, through aid organisations:
- emergency medical services and supplies for those injured in the violence;
Read more- basic food rations for more than 20,000 people;…
William Bruce
Artist
Ok Yuri, well tell us who is providing the money & weapons to the mercenaries?
It is obvious who is providing the western "political cover".
Joseph Bernard
Director
@William,
why is it always the evil west?
why are there no questions like:
who is funding the taliban?
who are funding the freedom fighters in Sudan, Iraq, Nigeria? to name a few
there are surely other forces here that like to blame the west for everything and hence justify the anger to keep their people fighting
Wei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
Joseph, Taliban has been funded by the West during the Russian occupation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_%E2%80%93_Osama_bin_Laden_controversy and http://www.thenation.com/article/how-us-funds-taliban. Unfortunately, where there are conflicts and wars, there are western DNAs. Saddam Hussein has also been armed by the US [ http://www.counterpunch.org/2004/06/17/how-reagan-armed-saddam-with-chemical-weapons/] This is the facts. Nobody else on earth is as warmongering as the USA and UK. Unfortunately, Australia as well - just check the last 100 years since federation, Australia has been engaged in wars across the world 40% of the time.
Yuri Pannikin
Director
Agree with Joseph. Why assume the west? How about the Saudis? There's plenty of money in the middle east to fund such movements. You seem to have a fixation on the "evil" US and NATO. That's completely irrational.
The Assad regime is not the most loved in the region. However, if there is support from the west for the democratic movement, rather than the salafists, I don't see the problem.
And it would not be the first time that the US and NATO were fighting on the same side as as al Qaeda. Consider Bosnia and the Balkans where NATO were fighting with al Qaeda and the Marxist Kosovoan Liberation Front for freedom from oppression for the people of the region.
Get over the 'military industrial complex' thing, think more about it, and don't be duped by deliberate misinformation on the 'loony left' web sites. These people are nuts.
Yuri Pannikin
Director
Comrade Chua, there is no doubt that the US under Reagan supported Iraq against Iran in the war between the two. However, contrary to the headlines of Counterpunch, the US has never supplied Iraq with chemical weapons.
It's easy to nominate chemical precursors and biological substrates that may or may not be a part of chemical and biological weapons manufacture. These things can be used for many facets of chemical engineering and medical research. The article is pure "spin". The Germans and French…
Read moreJoseph Bernard
Director
@Chau,
so who is funding the Taliban now?
Wei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
Thanks Joseph, Good question. A year before the invasion, the Taliban government managed to drastically reduce the drug trade by almost 96%. According to the United Nations Drug Control program, the Taliban begun to prohibit poppy production in 2000 with outstanding outcome - Poppy production had dropped from a million pounds in 1999 to 40,500 pounds in 2001. However, after the invasion, United Nation Office on Drugs and Crime report - Afghanistan Opium Survey 2007: Afghan Opium Output in 2007 nearly…
Read moreWei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
My dear Yuri, please provide some links to support your claims. Forgive me, you seem to allege any reports as "spin" without verifying the facts. I will only do it for you this time, read this from the Guardian about the declassified papers that leave the White House hawk exposed over his role during the Iran-Iraq war: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/dec/31/iraq.politics. Cheers.
Joseph Bernard
Director
@Chua,
you seem to paint the taliban in very glowing terms.. are ou muslim? do you also justify the Taliban's record on human rights? or do you just hate the west?
Wei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
Hello Joseph, we should try to understand others through their history, social, economic, tribal relation, custom, international relation and many other factors before making judgement. It is very easy to pick up some small stories to demonize others. Western media is good at that. The issue you have to ask yourself is: " Is Afghanistan better off after invasion?"; "Is Iraq better off after Invasion?" "Is Libya better off after invasion?"; Trust me, I am not anti-Western. I am angry with the war…
Read moreWilliam Bruce
Artist
Yuri says re funding the Syrian rebels..."How about the Saudis?"
This makes me suspicious indeed.
Yuri, do you not know about the "special relationship" between the Saudis & the USA?
William Bruce
Artist
Joseph asks "why is it always the evil west?"
...Possibly, because there is booty in it.....and, Israel & their global collaborators wants it.
Yuri Pannikin
Director
William, you know I do . . . :-).
But why would the Saudis or Qataris need any US prompting, or finance, to do what they see is in their interests? And I'm not suggesting it is in the interests of the Syrian people of 'all' religious and politcal persuasions though.
Yuri Pannikin
Director
Comrade Chua, if you are used to analysing fine points of evidence, which I suspect you are not, you will not find any evidence in the Guardian or Counterpunch articles that proves the US supplied Iraq with chemical or biological weapons. Again, you may wish to believe so, but it's just not true.
If you know some chemistry, you will understand that nerve agents like sarin, tabun and VX are more highly potent chemicals in the same class as you can buy from the supermarket for ant or fruit fly control…
Read moreJoseph Bernard
Director
Chua,
sorry but i find your position one sided and totally anti west, which paints the rest of the world as totally innocent and/or stupid!
If you think that the conflict in syria is not supported by a number of different islamic countries, then sorry you must think that they are fools, incapable of serving their own interests and their dreams of returning the Caliphs and establishing their own world order
Little history of islamic asperations
The Battle of Talas (or Battle of…
Read moreWilliam Bruce
Artist
Yuri...you said you know about the "special relationship" between the Saudis & the USA.
Well can you imagine they might, effectively be US backed dictatorships doing the USA/Israels bidding to gain their own protection?
Perhaps like the Saudis "help" with Iraq?
Wei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
Joseph, the fact that you are only able to drag an incident more than 1000 years ago, that proof that China is comparatively a much more peaceful country than the West. Anyway, thanks for the link, I will study that part of the history in more detail. What I know about the Tang dynasty is that, they basically did not physically control those territories; they actually allow the surrounding countries to pledge royalty to the emperor, and make the respective leaders the ruler of those lands under the protection of China. This is a new form of strategy to prevent them from invading China. It is a lose form of relationship, They may from the outset declare themselves as part of the Tang Dynasty but basically fully self managed with their culture, languages and custom still in tact. Please spend a bit more time to explore that part of the history.
Thomas Reuter
ARC Future Fellow at University of Melbourne
Excellent article, Brian, and some very useful links in the comments too, concerning the covert US operation in Syria ---carried out by some of the same mercenary troops that were used in Lybia. Here is another excellent expert analysis that comes to the same conclusion:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlbpFCiyyG4
(NB video in German with optional English subtitles)
The evidence presented in this source points directly at Iran as the ultimate military and economic objective of this operation in Syria.
Yuri Pannikin
Director
Are you serious? You are quoting the Nuoviso web site (nuoviso.com) as a source of reliable information -- on a forum like this?
And are you assuming the FSA are the bad guys and the Syrian government the good guys? I don't see your point.
Yuri Pannikin
Director
And I also note that Nuoviso, your reference, is flogging a video promoting the idea that 9/11 was perpetrated by the US Government.
What next? The moon landing was a fake and smoking doesn't cause lung cancer?
Eddy Schmid
Retired
How come this article never mentioned anything about the report from the BBC being a PROVEN FAKE ?
Found here; http://www.prisonplanet.com/bbc-caught-in-syria-massacre-propaganda-hoax.html
This type of reporting has found it's way into the Syria debacke time and time again, clearly, the purveyors of these article have a vested interest and possibly financial gain from peddling them, I hope the burn in hell.
Wei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
Good on you Eddy. I read about this from the 4th media. This is a typical behavior of the mainstream media. I am a Independent Researcher of media disinformation, there are more than a dozen examples here: http://outcastjournalist.com/index_files/media_disinformation.htm; you will find examples of such dodgy journalism from Australia to USA, Canada to UK, Germany... it is amazing.
Eddy Schmid
Retired
W Chua,
I'm a Vietnam Vet, and well versed with the duplicity practiced by vested interests that get innocent people killed.
We saw it in Vietnam, Iraq Gulf War one, Iraq war 2, Libya, Iran and now Syria.
It amazes me, that a site such as this one, where Acadmia is supposed to have the education to see through these lies and deception.
Funny thing, during the Vietnam days they did, I really wonder what has happened to Universities and academia since then, to cause this lack of truthfullness and vision.
Maybe it's a pay check ?
Wei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
Hi Eddy, I am surprise also, that is why I am actively participating in making comment in this site hoping to bring awareness about the real world. Read this article: http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/australian-identity/anzac-day-and-colonialism/, declined by the CONVERSATION.
William Bruce
Artist
Well said Eddy Schmid....
.....seem no shortage of crooked, toadie, pseudo-academics worried about their meal tickets
and, I suspect there are also a few forum posting meal ticket "war promoting shills" floating about too.
Yuri Pannikin
Director
Well Eddy . . . all that proves is that there are some duds at the BBC who are willing to accept propaganda without verifying sources -- just as there were at the ABC (Australian) in the early years of the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts. Thank goodness they've gotten better, although the 4 Corners report on Afghanistan last year was appalling.
I don't see that it changes any basic facts about the massacre.
Wei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
Well said William, this is the observation by a NZ independent magazine: "“Newspapers are dying because they became the prostitutes of commercialism and stopped telling the truth. Many people stopped buying newspapers because they become the rags of a corrupt industry. Too many journalists swallowed their pride, ignored their integrity and did what they had to do to pay the mortgage. They followed the marching orders of editors and publishers who forgot, or never knew, what journalism was intended to do.” [ http://outcastjournalist.com/index_files/media_disinformation.htm ]
William Bruce
Artist
Thomas.....this You tube is VERY worthwhile insight for all here.....even those profiting from more "wars of choice".
Thankyou
William Bruce
Artist
Interestingly, I saw a report recently which found that only about 10% or 20% of people in Australia now believe the Press... (don't remember exactly the percentage).
HOWEVER, they are still UNINFORMED...& I think the Joseph Gobbles' principles are all still very much used and effective....a big problem seems to me to be, people unwittingly don't care.
Interesting, there is such a big MEDIA scandal & blow up about Cattle slaughter....& Gillard is STILL on about that.
Wei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
William, People may generally no longer trust the media, however, they basically still sitting in front of the TV screen for their past time. The fact is, there is no alternative channel for them. The images and narration still affect viewers perception of an event. Two days ago, SBS News, using selective partial footage showing a foreigner lying on the middle of the street and claim that that is Chinese justice, anti-foreigners and nationalism. I saw that incident on CCTV news more than a week ago…
Read moreEddy Schmid
Retired
Um Yuri, it would appear, using your terminology, there are also some serious "duds" here on this site as well.
Read moreClearly, they did not research this report deeply enough and simply pharaphrased the major report.
Worse, no retraction has ever been done, or admittance of false reporting by the offenders, who DESPITE KNOWING their reports were false, allow it to remain. What does that say for the moral if such people ?
Now I'm no Uni student or Academic, however I DO know what such behaviour means…
Eddy Schmid
Retired
W Chua,
Thanks for the referal to the independentaustralia site, however if you visit that site and scroll down, you will find my comment on the article at the time, which I agreed with TOTALY.
Am pleased there are folks like yourself around who can tell the truth, despite the aggressive responce you get from the ploiticaly correct police.
I understand exactly, from whence you are coming from, support your actions 100%, your a beeter person then many others in Australia, including many on this site.
Keep up the good work.
Notice how there's been no retraction or apology from the author of this article, despite our pointing out it's a fabrication ?
Says a lot for this site and the author, IMHO.
Wei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
Thanks for your encouragement Eddy. It is not easy to tell the truth in the "FREE" world. When I set up my blog: www.outcastjournalist.com 3 years ago, I received some nasty e-mails, however, as long as people trying to reason with me, I will tailor my answer to their concern and actually managed to win a few hearts. Western people is of no different from others, most people can be persuaded with reasoning. But to overcome the misinformation they have been feed by the mainstream media all their lives, it is a long term job.
Brian Stoddart
Emeritus Professor at La Trobe University
Many thanks to all for the stimulating exchange and for the kind words about the piece. I think we are all stunned by (a) the complexity of this that usually escapes the mainstream commentary, and (b) the apparent inability to find some alternative options ad demonstrated by the mass dispatch of Syrian envoys globally and Carr's seeming willingness to envisage an armed invasion. Meanwhile, as you all point out, people keep being killed and for at least a few of us friends are at risk. It is a sorry, sorry state of affairs
Wei Ling Chua
Freelance Journalist (night passion) at Self-Employed: Picture Framing/Wholesales
The so-called bloodshed would have been minimized if the West stop arming and funding those so-called opposition from outside Syria. If there are armed opposition with the western countries, the response will be no different in the west. Check on all the links in this site and view the video footage of how unarmed western protestor been pepper sprayed, punch, rubber bullet, teargas and beaten up in America: http://outcastjournalist.com/index_files/why_wall_st_protestor_will_admire_china_protestor.htm. The irony is, most of these images can only be viewed on the internet by Alternative media.
Eddy Schmid
Retired
Dear Brian,
Read moreYour comments are a prime example, IMHO, of how our instutionalised academics are unable to even grasp what's going on around the World outside their hallowed halls.
The U.S. has stated, TEN YEARS AGO, that they would persue regime change in IRAQ,SYRIA,IRAN,LIBYA, there was no secret about this, check out their;
"The Project for the New American Century
By William Rivers Pitt
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article1665.htm";
It's all spelled out clearly therein what the…
Brian Stoddart
Emeritus Professor at La Trobe University
ref E. Schmid - I assume you are referring to me, amidst all the other commentary, when you refer to the author. As I understand it, the "fraud" to which you refer was actually the photograph involved rather than to the actuial fact of the event. If that is so, then you have extrapolated an extremely long way from there to the position that you seem to hold. That is your prerogative. However, it seesm to me to do little to gainsay the original points that I made. But thanks for the commentary anyway
Ron Chinchen
Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)
Damned if you do. Damned if you dont. In civil war, there are often no rights and wrongs, only winners and losers. And winners in the Middle East cant rely on any long term control. I will be watching in the next decade how successful the West's intervention in Iraq, Libya and Afganistan has been in establishing the 'democractic' ideal. And suggestions that its just the West causing concerns is spurious. All factions and major interested groups and nations play this game. America and the West have…
Read moreRon Chinchen
Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)
Damned if you do. Damned if you dont. In civil war, there are often no rights and wrongs, only winners and losers. And winners in the Middle East cant rely on any long term control. I will be watching in the next decade how successful the West's intervention in Iraq, Libya and Afganistan has been in establishing the 'democractic' ideal. And suggestions that its just the West causing concerns is spurious. All factions and major interested groups and nations play this game. America and the West have…
Read more