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Tasmania and SA Election Results

In Tasmania the Liberals clearly won a majority last night with over 51% of the vote, ousting Labor after 16 years. However, in South Australia, a hung Parliament is likely with Labor winning 23 seats to the Liberals 22 and two Independents. It is possible, but unlikely, that those seat totals could change on late counting.

Tasmanian Election

The ABC’s results currently show that the Liberals have won 51.4% of the vote, up 12.4%. Labor has 27.4%, down 9.5% and the Greens have 13.5%, down 8.1%. Palmer United Party (PUP) debuted with 5.0%, but is not likely to win a seat.

Here is a table of results showing which parties are expected to win seats in each electorate. The two undecided seats are a Liberal vs Labor seat in Braddon, and a Labor vs Greens seat in Lyons. With 14 of 25 total seats, the Liberals have a decisive majority.

Tas results

Here is a short rundown of each electorate’s results, from Kevin Bonham’s analysis. A quota is 1/6 of the vote, or 16.7%; it is required to win a seat under the Hare-Clark system.

  • In Bass, the Liberals have 3.4 quotas, Labor 1.4, the Greens 0.8 and PUP 0.3. It seems clear that the Greens should win the last seat.

  • In Braddon, the Liberals have 3.5 quotas, Labor 1.4, PUP 0.43 and the Greens 0.40. Because Hare-Clark is a candidate based system, there will be some leakage from the Liberal ticket, which could help Labor to win a second seat.

  • In Denison, the Liberals have 2.3 quotas, Labor 2.1 and the Greens 1.3. This is a very clear result.

  • In Franklin, the Liberals have 3.0 quotas, Labor 1.7 and the Greens 1.0. There is a small chance that vote leakage from the Liberals could cost them a 3rd seat, but this chance is not high.

  • In Lyons, the Liberals have 3.1 quotas, Labor 1.7 and the Greens 0.7. The last seat is a toss-up between Labor and the Greens.

SA Election

The pre-election expectation in South Australia was that the Liberals would win easily. It appears that bookies were at one stage paying $1.01 for a Liberal win and $13 for a Labor win. On election night, it actually seemed possible for Labor to win a majority in their own right, but they fell behind in Mitchell late in the count.

As it stands, Labor currently leads in 23 of the 47 seats, down 3 from the 2010 election. The Liberals lead in 22, up 4, and 2 Independents retained their seats. If those results hold, Labor would be one seat short of a majority. The closest seat where Labor leads is Colton, where Labor led by 51.5-48.5. Although the outstanding votes generally favour the Liberals, it is rare for a Labor election night lead above 51-49 to be overturned on late counting.

While it is likely that Labor has won more seats than the Liberals, the Liberals have currently won 44.3% of the statewide primary vote, up 2.6%, Labor has 36.8%, down 0.7%, the Greens have 8.5%, up 0.4% and Family First have 6.1%, up 0.7%. The Two Party Preferred (2PP) result will not be known for at least a few weeks, but it is likely that the Liberals won the 2PP vote by around 52.5-47.5, which would be a 1% swing to the Liberals. Labor has an electoral advantage in SA because the Liberals have huge majorities outside Adelaide, meaning they waste votes in those seats.

In the Upper House, the likely outcome is that the Liberals will win 4 of the 11 seats up at this election, Labor will win 4, the Greens 1, Family First 1 and Independent Nick Xenophon’s group will win 1. A similar result was produced in 2010, with the Xenophon seat going to Dignity for Disability (D4D). That means that the total seats for the 22-member Upper House will be Labor 8, Liberals 8, Greens 2, Family First 2, Xenophon 1 and D4D 1.

Poll Performance

The Greens' performance has often been disappointing when compared to poll results, and this was certainly the case in Tasmania, where the Greens have only 13.5%, well short of Newspoll’s 16% or ReachTEL’s 18% the week before. Both polls also underestimated Labor’s Tasmanian vote by 4%. It may be that there was a surge to the Liberals in the final week, which Newspoll picked up but ReachTEL missed, as it was taken in the second last week.

In SA, the ReachTEL final 2PP result of 55-45 to the Liberals was definitely wrong; no primary votes have yet been given for that poll. Newspoll’s 16% Others vote compares poorly with the 10.4% actual result counting Family First as Others. As a result, Newspoll underestimated the votes of Labor, the Liberals and the Greens. It is possible that some people who told Newspoll they were voting for Others could not find a reasonable Other, and so had to vote for a major party instead. Newspoll’s final estimated 2PP of 52.3-47.7 to the Liberals is likely to be close to the actual result.

Join the conversation

8 Comments sorted by

  1. Michael Shand

    Software Tester

    Great Article, thanks for your quick and accurate coverage on these elections

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    1. Jane Middlemist

      citizen

      In reply to Neville Mattick

      Mr Mattick, I was heartened by your remark ending with "people are waking up to Abbott".
      I hope you're right and that they will be wide awake by 2016.
      Can't bear to contemplate the alternative.

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  2. Pat Moore

    gardener

    Thanks Adrian. Well, it's a case of welcome to the nightmare/ Inn of the Damned for the Tassie folk....open your doors up 'for business' nice and wide mates, you're going to be done over top down, double whammy, big time.... branch office now bro's, you know not what's in store or what's going to hit you despite the fairy stories. You took the big man's candy...... and goodbye to all those trees in all those forests.....maybe dear Bob B will be thinking this morning...resurgum...back to the barricades…

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  3. Robert Tony Brklje
    Robert Tony Brklje is a Friend of The Conversation.

    retired

    The most appalling thing about this election. The Liberal Party Prime minister Tony Abbott made it quite clear, the Federal government would be in conflict with any non-Liberal Party state.
    It is quite clear that Tony Abbott does not consider himself to be the Prime Minister of Australia but the Liberal Party Prime minister of Liberal voters and he is opposed to and in conflict with non-Liberal voters and as such so is the Australian government, a Prime Minister of conflict and decisiveness, not really fit to lead Australia.
    One thing politicians need to be reminded of, that once they are elected they are meant to represent all Australians not just those that contributed campaign dollars or those foolish enough to vote for them.
    When the Federal government purposefully interferes in state elections by claiming and promoting political conflict, that Federal government is clearly unfit for office.

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    1. Jane Middlemist

      citizen

      In reply to Robert Tony Brklje

      My thoughts almost precisely as well Mr B, but not so well expressed as you have done.
      I went to the protest march today. We'll be ignored of course. I'm trying to get accustomed to all the destruction and setbacks.
      More than two years to go and maybe even more.
      Help…

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  4. Terry Mills

    lawyer retired

    There seems to be a problem with electoral boundaries in SA.

    If,as we are told, LNP polled 52.5% of the two party preferred vote but gained only 22 of the 47 seats then you can't say that there is a mandate for the LNP. What you can say is that there is moderate gerrymander in place and that needs to be corrected.

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