A black swan event must meet three criteria: it must be an outlier, must have a major impact and must be declared predictable in hindsight.
(Buiobuione/Wikimedia)
The danger of treating COVID-19 as an astronomically rare and improbable event is that we will treat it as such and fail to prepare for the next pandemic. And there will be another pandemic.
A statistics professor used his expertise in calculating probabilities to come up with a 98 winning percentage for Tim Hortons popular Roll up the Rim contest.
(Photo Illustration/The Conversation)
Tim Hortons changed Roll up the Rim to include a digital element. A statistician correctly predicted that playing on the last day of the contest would dramatically increase the odds of winning.
Kea were able to correctly guess the most probable scenarios, by evaluating various physical and social cues. Previously, only great apes and humans were known to be able to understand probability.
Scrambling it is much easier than solving it. But it still involves some fascinating questions, such as the number of random moves needed to consider the cube truly messed up.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes celebrates after his team won the NFL divisional playoff football game against the Houston Texans on Jan. 12, 2020.
AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
Wages, starlight and polls can all be interpreted using statistics. While probabilities, medians and noise can be challenging, a simple dice can provide insights into statistics.
Clinical trials are important, but can’t get us to medicine prescribing that is 100% effective.
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Clinical trials are used to establish that medicines work. But these don’t take into account the genetic differences between us that can mean very different outcomes for different patients.
There are 130 billion gallons of water in Wisconsin’s Lake Mendota, and now, trillions of spiny water fleas.
Corey Coyle/Wikimedia
It’s cheaper to prevent biological invasions than to react after they happen. But it’s hard to detect invaders while there are still just a few of them. Knowing when and where to look can help.
Would you go ‘flats’ or ‘hills’?
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The study of innovation in large companies and start-ups would benefit from being inspired by physics, which mobilizes different sets of laws for large masses and particles.
Most Canadians have a higher probability of dying of heart disease than winning something in the McDonald’s Monopoly game.
THE CONVERSATION CANADA/Scott White
McDonald’s Canada has brought back its popular Monopoly game. A statistician explains the odds of winning the top prizes and how that compares to the odds we confront in everyday life.
The code that could see you a winner in McDonald’s Monopoly competition.
Paul McMillan
Rand Wilcox, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences
Any field that collects and analyzes data relies on statistical techniques to make sense of it all. Modern, more accurate methods should supplant the old ways… but in many cases, they haven’t yet.
Will he or won’t he hit the bullseye? Using Bayes’ Theorem, your prediction will be based on how the current match is going - and how he’s played in the past.
Flickr/Marjan Lazarevski
We naturally overestimate the risk of rare events, like shark attacks or terrorism. But there are things you can do to think more rationally about the real risk.
When a player’s on fire, is it hot hands?
Basketball image via www.shutterstock.com.
For 30 years, sports fans have been told to forget about streaks because the ‘hot hand’ is a fallacy. But a reanalysis says not so fast: Statistics show players really are in the zone sometimes.
A perfect night out involves a lot of chance.
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