New Zealand’s history of inflation, recessions and unemployment offer clues to what might happen next. Coupled with global events, the outlook is not promising.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis.
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With voter confidence already low, the National-led coalition will have difficulty fulfilling pre-election promises while delivering a prudent budget in May.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The best measure of living standards – real household disposable income per capita – has been going backwards for two years. It’s the biggest dive in living standards in half a century.
Recent surveys suggest Canadians are dissatisfied with the direction of the economy.
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There are a number of reasons why there’s such a significant gap between aggregate economic numbers and the perceptions of everyday people.
While the current episode of inflation has created challenges for many, this is not the first time Canada has gone through such an experience.
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The real question in the minds of many economists is what the trend in inflation will be going forward, and when interest rates will begin to fall and bring relief to Canadians.
Central banks in the US, UK and Europe have been trying to slow inflation without creating a recession.
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Beneath the obvious policy differences between Labour and National lies a tacit consensus on fundamental economic settings. Until that changes, political choice will be constrained.
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem holds a news conference at the Bank of Canada in July 2023.
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Why is monetary policy outside the realm of politics? What are the social ramifications of our current monetary policy system? What alternatives exist?
Six charts explain the Australian economy. Three of the most disturbing show living standards going backwards, productivity collapsing and household saving falling to a 15-year low.
Economists are feeling dismal for a reason.
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Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Even a week ago we couldn’t have predicted this. But after good news from the US, our Reserve Bank now has a chance to cement low unemployment while controlling inflation – without more rate rises.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The good news includes a return to real wage growth and a restrained increase in unemployment. The bad news includes even higher home prices and a per-capita recession.