Climate models are complicated - and necessarily so if they are to recreate our complex world. But a new, simpler climate model aims to take some of the mystery out of the art of climate modelling.
Moaning about weather forecasts is almost an Australian national pastime. But weather predictions have improved a lot, and with a new satellite and supercomputer, they are about to get even more reliable.
A new analysis of historic weather balloon data reveals that the troposphere has been warming as climate models predicted.
NOAA/Wikimedia Commons
Climate models have been criticised because observations could not find the predicted “hot spot” of strong warming in the troposphere. But analyses now show that the tropospheric hot spot is indeed real.
Luckily, we have more to go on now than just knowing the tracks of previous named storms.
Titoxd
We’re no longer caught off guard when hurricanes make landfall, the way people were into the early 1900s. Better communications, measurements and observations all feed into better forecasts and more warning.
Hurricane path forecasts are good, but even the ‘cone of uncertainty’ doesn’t fully describe where the hazards could be.
National Hurricane Center
James Franklin, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Forecasting successes can breed complacency in the general public. But all hurricane damage isn’t necessarily contained within the “cone of uncertainty.”
Whale sharks were one of the warm water species to move south during the 2010-2011 marine heatwave.
Ben Henrich/Flickr
While eastern Australia trembles in the face of an El Niño, Western Australia’s oceans could finally see relief from devastating marine heatwaves.
Breaking the ice: while scientists increasingly understand why Antarctic sea ice is growing, it remains tricky to forecast.
Australian Antarctic Division
In 1985, when CSIRO’s marine labs were launched, a seven-day weather forecast was little better than chance. Now, thanks to advances in our understanding of the oceans, our predictions are far better.
Recent extreme rains such as those that hit Sydney recently are actually decreasing, but extreme rain in summer is going up.
AAP Image/NEWZULU/LISA HOSKING
What causes the wild weather that’s hit Sydney and central New South Wales over the past 24 hours?
Clumps of thunderstorms are driving increases in rain over tropical oceans.
Image courtesy of the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit, NASA Johnson Space Center
“Snowmageddon” was predicted – three feet of snow, blizzards whipped up by high winds, a freeze of the whole transport system. What New York got was “snowperbole”. Yes, it snowed, but not as badly as predicted…
Adjusted data from Australian weather stations has been peer-reviewed before. But the government’s new technical panel could still offer useful advice.
Bidgee/Wikimedia Commons
The federal government’s new “Technical Advisory Forum” on weather data, announced by parliamentary environment secretary Bob Baldwin last week, will “review and provide advice on Australia’s official…
What does Paraguay have to do with the global temperature record?
dany13/Flickr
An article in The Australian today has once again raised the question of why scientists, in trying to estimate how the global and regional surface temperatures of Earth may have changed over the past century…