Over the next twelve months, the Shadow Board members attach a 40% probability that the cash rate will need to increase, slightly more than the probability that the cash rate needs to fall.
AAP
Whither the Aussie dollar? Since the RBA dropped the cash rate to 2.75% last month the Australian dollar has fallen to below 96 US cents, a depreciation of more than 7% against the US dollar. With weaker…
Down? Stay as it is? Commentators are divided about the direction of the cash rate.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia should leave interest rates unchanged this month according to the consensus of Shadow Reserve Board members. Amid market uncertainty over whether the RBA board may choose…
Despite continuing unrest in Europe - particularly Cyprus - the global economy has firmed, say Shadow Reserve Bank commentators.
The consensus of the nine members of the Shadow Board is that the Reserve Bank of Australia should leave interest rates unchanged from March at 3.00%. But the balance of risks implies rates should rise…
A number of Shadow Bank commentators point to a slight uplift in the housing market as a sign that interest rates should rise in the medium term.
No change remains the consensus of the nine members of the Shadow Board in the Reserve Bank of Australia holding interest rates unchanged from February at 3.00%. But rates need to rise significantly within…
A blunt instrument: the case for interest rates to rise is strengthened by rising unemployment and a persistently high Australian dollar which has defied previous cuts.
AAP
The Shadow Reserve Board, an initiative of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) made up of eminent industry and academic economists, returns this month. Reserve Bank of Australia board…
A cut in Australia’s cash rate tomorrow has been factored in by most economic practitioners, but Shadow Board academics are split over whether it should.
AAP
Many economists think the RBA Board will cut the cash rate this month. With commodity prices projected to be weakening, financial markets suggest a rate cut is likely. Mind you, many practitioners suggested…
The CAMA Shadow Board believes the Reserve Bank of Australia should leave the cash rate unaltered.
AAP
The Reserve Bank of Australia should leave the cash rate unchanged tomorrow, with little evidence suggesting an interest rate cut is justified, according to members of the CAMA Shadow Board. The Shadow…
Warning signals about global slowing have been there for some time - yesterday’s cash rate cut should not have been a surprise.
Monetary policy must be forward looking. It has limited ability to affect the here and now of the economy, as this has largely already been determined - by employment decisions, investment decisions and…
There are as many compelling reasons for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates as there are to leave them unchanged.
AAP
Predicting the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision for October appears to be particularly tough for economic commentators. A decline in iron ore prices, compounded with a stubbornly high dollar, has…
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep the cash rates unchanged tomorrow: but prominent economists say the case for a cut may be firming.
AAP
CAMA’s Shadow Board, which gives its views ahead of the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, continues to support the current setting of the cash rate at 3.5%. But economists are seeing a greater…
The reserve bank should hold the cash rate steady tomorrow – but CAMA’s Shadow board members see greater uncertainty long term.
AAP
_The Conversation, in conjunction with the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), presents the monthly findings of the Shadow Board, prior to the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia Board…
The Reserve Bank of Australia should keep interest rates on hold, say a group of influential economists.
AAP
_The Conversation, in conjunction with the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), will present the monthly findings of the Shadow Board, a day before the Reserve Bank of Australia Board meets…
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens: knowing how individuals board members think is important.
AAP
Monetary policymaking is imperfect. When board members of a central bank such as the Reserve Bank of Australia sit down to set the appropriate target cash rate each month - as they did this week - there…