Climate change and Victoria: high time to innovate, adapt, and cope

Victoria has entered a critical decade in the race to adapt for the stresses of climate change, according to a new report from the Climate Commission. Following the release of Victorian climate impacts and opportunities yesterday, the Commission’s Chief Commissioner, Professor Tim Flannery, writes here…

Czhmdbkc-1343018531 — Sign of things to come: a depleted Lake Hume in 2007, when the big dry still had a couple years to run. Flickr/Tim J Keegan

Victoria has entered a critical decade in the race to adapt for the stresses of climate change, according to a new report from the Climate Commission.

Following the release of Victorian climate impacts and opportunities yesterday, the Commission’s Chief Commissioner, Professor Tim Flannery, writes here about Victoria and its state of play.

Victoria forms part of Australia’s southern fringe. Lying between the deserts to the northwest, and oceans to the south, it has seen dramatic shifts of climate in the geologically recent past. Relict patches of desert mallee on Melbourne’s western fringes, and even a few stranded snow gums in its eastern suburbs, tell of times dramatically colder and drier than the present, and should warn us that Victoria is vulnerable to large swings in climate. Now, because of the volume of coal, oil, and gas humans are burning, the state’s climate is changing again.

Victoria is already warmer, on average, than it was a century ago, and extremes of temperature are becoming even more extreme. The “big dry” of 1997 to 2009 was the worst drought in 100* years, and it culminated in a month-long heat wave that broke all records, damaging electricity and transport infrastructure and decimating wildlife. The “big wet” that followed provided some welcome relief by raising dam levels, but the relief may be short-lived. Victorians know water security is a long-term challenge that we must be prepared for. There are signs that el Niño may return later in 2012, bringing with it a return to drier conditions. The longer-term, rainfall is expected to be lower than the 20th century average, especially in the cooler months.

Climate change isn’t just about heat waves, droughts and rainfall. The state’s changing climate is likely to lead to less snowfall, more devastating bushfires, and the extinction of native species. And the warming of the oceans and the melting of glacial ice is causing sea levels to rise, possibly as much as a metre by the end of the century. This brings a significant risk of flooding in places like Hobsons Bay and the Gippsland Lakes. By the end of the century thousands of homes, as well as commercial buildings and iconic beaches may be threatened by rising seas.

The dangers of climate change have been known for decades, but as a society Australians have been slow to act. Victoria still draws more than 90% of its electricity from an ageing fleet of coal-fired power plants that include some of the most polluting in the world. Yet the state is blessed with excellent wind resources, as well as abundant sunshine.

We can’t expect that tackling a problem like climate change will have no costs. We will see it in our electricity bills, and in businesses and homes alike this should act as a spur to use resources more efficiently. In this, business and communities have been leading the way. Amcor, for example, has reduced its electricity use by 15% in its corrugated box plant, and its gas use by 30%, leading to an overall reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions of 20%. And the need to reduce emissions is also spurring innovation. At the One Steel, steel mill at Laverton, old car tyres are being substituted for coal in the steelmaking process, leading to less power demand, lowered greenhouse emissions, and less landfill. Wherever the Climate Commission has visited, but especially in regional Australia, we’ve met with individuals and businesses achieving similar innovation and greenhouse gas reductions.

Economic studies such as that by Lord Stern show that it’s worth paying the cost of reducing emissions now, for if we wait until our climate is changing even more rapidly, costs will escalate and the damage caused will be significant. The impact of the big dry gives us some idea of what climate change may bring in future. It lowered the inflow into Melbourne’s four major reservoirs by 40%, and caused an 80% reduction in crop yield, and a 40% reduction in livestock production in the state’s Wimmera-Southern Mallee region. Added to this must be the cost in human lives from the 2009 heat wave. Victoria experienced an eight-fold increase in hospital admissions for heat-related conditions, and a 62% increase in heat-related deaths. Without effective action on climate change, we can expect more such damaging weather and climate events in the future.

Climate scientists have designated this decade as “the critical decade” for action on climate change. That’s because unless we take significant steps to reduce our emissions by the end of the decade it will become increasingly difficult to keep global temperature rise at manageable levels.

Australia is playing a proud part in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas pollution. As one of the top 20 largest emitting countries on Earth it’s vital that we do our bit, both in order to encourage others and to prepare our industries for the inevitable changes ahead.

* An earlier version of this article said 1000 years rather than 100. This has now been corrected.

Comments welcome below.

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62 Comments sorted by

markus fitzhenry

logged in via LinkedIn

One does wonder what a real scientist, rather than an alarmist, would consider of the 'post science' method of discovery Mr Flannery is immersed in.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=b240PGCMwV0#!

10 months ago report
1. Mike Hansen
  
  Mr
  
  In reply to markus fitzhenry
  
  markus fitzhenry grasp of climate science is illustrated by the following comment where he quotes from the blog of Roger Tallbloke, a crank who believes that the famous Michelson-Morley experiment which lead to the theory of relativity was faked.
  http://theconversation.edu.au/rio-20-small-steps-could-get-us-out-of-the-climate-quicksand-7755#comment_46489
  http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/hall-of-fame/
  
  10 months ago report
2. In reply to Mike Hansen
  
  Comment removed by moderator.
3. In reply to Mike Hansen
  
  Comment removed by moderator.
4. In reply to Ian Ashman
  
  Comment removed by moderator.
5. Alex Cannara
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to markus fitzhenry
  
  "Is that the best you can do" Fitzy?
  ;]
  
  10 months ago report
John Newlands

tree changer

According to Environment Victoria the State gets 92% of its electricity from burning brown coal. Unless that is substantially reduced some of these other ideas are merely tinkering around the edges. An impressive emissions reduction could be achieved by replacing one of the big baseload stations (Yallourn, Loy Yang, Hazelwood) with nuclear or say two of them with combined cycle gas. However the south eastern gas price is rising steadily and may be too expensive a decade from now.

A combination of wind and solar that could make a nontrivial dent in brown coal burning would also be expensive. Note the very high electricity prices in SA from using the wind and gas combination. To put it bluntly unless the brown coal stations are progressively replaced everything else is a feelgood exercise.

10 months ago report
1. John Nicol
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to John Newlands
  
  John Newlands,
  
  You write as if you actually believe the nonsense our "Chief Climate Commissioner" is trying to sell. His only basis for this rubbish is the output from untested models which in 2007 could NOT, according to the IPCC report, even correctly reproduce known climates of any of the years betwween 1950 and 2007! What has changed? Nothing.
  
  They are also typically hopeless at representing the "climates" for regional areas and one finds that this is consistent with the three month…
  Read more
  
  John Newlands,
  
  You write as if you actually believe the nonsense our "Chief Climate Commissioner" is trying to sell. His only basis for this rubbish is the output from untested models which in 2007 could NOT, according to the IPCC report, even correctly reproduce known climates of any of the years betwween 1950 and 2007! What has changed? Nothing.
  
  They are also typically hopeless at representing the "climates" for regional areas and one finds that this is consistent with the three month forecasts by the Bureau of meterorology using similar models. In 2010, the model climate/weather forecast produced for Australia by BOM for September to November, predicted almost exactly the opposite in every region from what actually occurred.
  
  Now Tim wants us to believe that he knows that the climate of the comparatively small patch of Victoria alone will be changing in a particular way. To try to prove it he shows a picture of a dry lake in 2007 - five years ago. What does it look like now Tim and what had you predicted for it back in 2007? To be even drier by now !! Well done Tim! Good business for desalination builders but not so good for Victoria as it turned out. John Nicol
  
  10 months ago report
2. Alex Cannara
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to John Nicol
  
  Ahhh, here's good ol' John pushing the "models are no good" straw man up to knock down!
  
  Unfortunately for John and other Fact Avoiders here, and us all, the realities of global effects of emissions have little to do with models, and John knows this, after our many discussions, right John?
  
  So rather than trot out the old, desperately misleading rhetoric on models, why not try some scientific observations? You know, the things anyone can measure -- sea rise, ocean acidification, average yearly…
  Read more
  
  Ahhh, here's good ol' John pushing the "models are no good" straw man up to knock down!
  
  Unfortunately for John and other Fact Avoiders here, and us all, the realities of global effects of emissions have little to do with models, and John knows this, after our many discussions, right John?
  
  So rather than trot out the old, desperately misleading rhetoric on models, why not try some scientific observations? You know, the things anyone can measure -- sea rise, ocean acidification, average yearly precip, temps, categoried storms, etc?
  
  Here, this is the tragedy most likely to strike hundreds of millions around the world first...
  www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18938002
  
  I know, John, not getting ensnared in your models fluff isn't fair is it? But remember how we asked repeatedly what you'll tell your descendents you did when the Great Climate-Change Debate was raging?
  
  Our descendents will have reason to spit on out graves, but the FAs that regularly report puffery here may find other things dumping on their plots.
  ;]
  
  10 months ago report
3. Gillian King
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to John Newlands
  
  South Australia has benefited from its wind and solar in the latest price rises.
  
  SA has announced 18% price rise for electricity. The South Australian Essential Services Commission broke it down like this:
  
  > carbon price 4.6% (half that of other states because SA has low carbon intensity generation)
  > network charges 4%
  > State Govt FIT for solar 7%
  > CPI adjustment 2.6% (whatever that is!)
  
  So, if you subtract the 4.6% avoided carbon price from the 7% FIT, you get the true additional cost of FIT - 2.4% or $38 a year. That's a good investment in the transition from high-carbon to low-carbon electricity that will deliver permanent benefits of reduced greenhouse gases for generations to come.
  
  10 months ago report
4. John Newlands
  
  tree changer
  
  In reply to Gillian King
  
  SA's 34c per kwh must be among the highest electricity prices in the world. I pay under 23c in Tasmania. Because wind requires gas backup the SA power price price seems likely to rise as east Australian gas gets more expensive, the same bugbear for replacing brown coal in Victoria. I think high SA power prices may have already killed off the State's biggest project, the Olympic Dam expansion.
  
  10 months ago report
5. Mike Hansen
  
  Mr
  
  In reply to John Newlands
  
  "South Australia has always had higher electricity prices than the rest of Australia, well before wind became prominent in the supply mix [due to lack of cheap coal or hydro]"
  
  "The high prevalence of wind power in South Australia’s electricity mix is actually depressing electricity prices in the state."
  
  "Critics of wind will suggest that wind requires huge amounts of expensive gas peaking power as back-up, and that’s where power prices will take a hit. But that hasn’t happened, as the chart below illustrates. South Australia has been using less electricity from gas peakers (open cycle gas turbines and thermal gas) over the period that wind power rose from 7 per cent to 21 per cent market share."
  
  http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/australian-embarrasses-itself-again
  
  10 months ago report
6. John Nicol
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to John Newlands
  
  John Newlands, for comparison, we pay 19c per kWhour in Queensland. I am not sure of the other states like NSW or WA.
  John Nicol
  
  10 months ago report
7. Ian Ashman
  
  Manager
  
  In reply to Alex Cannara
  
  Alex,
  
  John Nicol is Chairman of the advisory panel for The Australian Climate Science Coalition.
  
  According to sourcewatch, the Australian Climate Science Coalition (ACSC) is a climate change skeptics website created by the the Australian Environment Foundation (AEF), a spin-off group created by the the corporate funded think tank, the Institute of Public Affairs. In 2009-2010 the ACSC was almost exclusively funded by the Heartland Institute, via the American Climate Science Coalition.
  
  10 months ago report
8. markus fitzhenry
  
  logged in via LinkedIn
  
  In reply to Alex Cannara
  
  Ahhh, here's bad ol' Alex pushing the 'sky is falling' retoric for it to be knocked down
  
  Lets try some of that scientific measurement over the recent times, shall we?
  
  1. Aviso Envisat data show sea level rising in the eight years 2004-2012 at a rate equivalent to 1.3 inches (3 cm) per century. What is more, sea level in 2011-2012 was lower than in each of the previous seven years:
  
  2. Growth in Antarctic sea-ice extent almost matches the decline in the Arctic over the past 30 years, so…
  Read more
  
  Ahhh, here's bad ol' Alex pushing the 'sky is falling' retoric for it to be knocked down
  
  Lets try some of that scientific measurement over the recent times, shall we?
  
  1. Aviso Envisat data show sea level rising in the eight years 2004-2012 at a rate equivalent to 1.3 inches (3 cm) per century. What is more, sea level in 2011-2012 was lower than in each of the previous seven years:
  
  2. Growth in Antarctic sea-ice extent almost matches the decline in the Arctic over the past 30 years, so that global sea-ice extent shows little change since the satellites have been watching: (see e.g. Johannessen et al., 2005):
  
  3. Tropical cyclone activity, worldwide, as a 24 month running running sum of frequency, intensity and duration of all types (hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones, is almost at its least in 40 years. (Maue, 2012):
  
  4. Above all, in the generation since 1990, the observed warming rate has turned out below the least estimate projected by the IPCC in that year. The models agreed with one another, but events have proven the consensus wrong. The post-1950 warming rate, as the least-squares trend on the Hadley/CRU surface temperature series (HadCRUt3, 2011), is just 1.2 K/century:
  
  So really Alex your "rather than trot out the old, desperately misleading rhetoric, why not try some scientific observations? You know, the things anyone can measure -- sea rise, ocean acidification, average yearly precip, temps, categoried (sic) storms, etc?", kinda makes you look like a Henny Penny, quite similar in the vain of the author of this unscientific piece of rhetoric.
  
  When Mr Flannery says "Climate change and Victoria: high time to innovate, adapt, and cope" one can only point him to the efforts of Australians in doing just that, and quite successfully, since HMS Supply arrived on 18 January 1788 at Botany.
  
  The stupidity of some Australians in recent times really does make me cringe. When historians of science come to discuss the bizarre intellectual aberration that is the belief in catastrophic man-made “global warming”, Professor Flannery will not merit so much as a footnote.
  
  10 months ago report
9. Luke Weston
  
  Physicist / electronic engineer
  
  In reply to John Newlands
  
  I'll be quite saddened if as you say high energy costs in SA will really "kill off" the Olympic Dam expansion, since after that expansion the byproduct uranium produced per year as a byproduct from that one copper mine will represent an energy resource equal to the total of all the coal and fossil fuel production on Earth each year.
  
  10 months ago report
10. Alex Cannara
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to Ian Ashman
  
  Thanks Ian. John asked me for direct email discussions over a year ago, when I first ran into his goofy comments on CO2 effects in air. It became clear he is no scientist, but a technician who did spectroscopic work at some time. It also appeared that he had no interest in full discussion, because when I presented him with the simple, AAAS, 2009, 4-parameter model that perfectly matches recent decades of world avg temps, he broke off.
  
  Like Monckton, with whom I had an earlier email exchange…
  Read more
  
  Thanks Ian. John asked me for direct email discussions over a year ago, when I first ran into his goofy comments on CO2 effects in air. It became clear he is no scientist, but a technician who did spectroscopic work at some time. It also appeared that he had no interest in full discussion, because when I presented him with the simple, AAAS, 2009, 4-parameter model that perfectly matches recent decades of world avg temps, he broke off.
  
  Like Monckton, with whom I had an earlier email exchange, facts seemed to be threats to 'business', whatever that is.
  
  For Monckton, it's playing us all while making $ touring for Fox News, etc. For John, I don't know what he's thinking, since he's old enough to know better and be thinking about his offsprings' futures.
  
  The last email exchange with Monckton is funny, however. He was alleging that there's so little CO2 in air that how could going from 280ppm to 380ppm (it's now 400 in Arctic air) ever do much? So I replied by asking him if the bank in the next town offered 380/280 as much interest, would he move his accounts? He replied that he never wanted to hear from me again and was filtering out my address.
  
  And I thought Lords of the Realm were to be manly hewn.
  ;]
  
  10 months ago report
11. Alex Cannara
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to markus fitzhenry
  
  Ahhh, there's ol' Markus following his handlers' lead...
  
  1) sea rise has been 8" since 1880. Go measure yourself, Markus (no, not that part of 'yourself' -- too disappointing). And your data interpretation shows you don't understand earth's seas, so how about a little self study, as you want of others? -- AAAS Science, 6 July 2012 "Editor's Choice", or Nat. Climate Change 2, 10.1038/NCLIMATE1597
  
  2) False, and since you refer to a 2005 doc., you know it;'s false. Plenty of satellite references…
  Read more
  
  Ahhh, there's ol' Markus following his handlers' lead...
  
  1) sea rise has been 8" since 1880. Go measure yourself, Markus (no, not that part of 'yourself' -- too disappointing). And your data interpretation shows you don't understand earth's seas, so how about a little self study, as you want of others? -- AAAS Science, 6 July 2012 "Editor's Choice", or Nat. Climate Change 2, 10.1038/NCLIMATE1597
  
  2) False, and since you refer to a 2005 doc., you know it;'s false. Plenty of satellite references since then show vast reductions. But then, you must think the Chinese and Russians are fools, to be contracting for shipping across opening Arctic waters and developing N. Siberian ports & industries with ship-borne nuke reactors. Your handlers won't like you exposing yourself with weak argumentation, Markus.
  ;]
  3) Wrong planet, Markus. The intensity has been well documented in N. America as increasing and the frequency of tornados has increased as well. The US also now has 26 states in worst drought conditions since 1956. One reason for droughts is that warmer waters create more precipitation nearer the evaporative centers, thus depriving more distant regions of 'normal' moderate rainfall/snowfall. And, of course, loss of precip. adds to increased temps -- the US now has 40,000 municipalities recoding 2011-12 avg temps higher than any prior record, some going back to 1860.
  
  4) Playing the IPCC models" game again, eh? You haven't yet seen how much of a loser that is? The N. Hem. temp records for the period from 2010 backwards for decades of good data, are perfectly modelled by reality -- just 4 main realities: Volcanism, El Nino/La Nina, Sunspot Cycle, and (wait for it) CO2 in air. This reality is what drives some of your co-FAs up the wall. So, indeed, temps before 2010, for a few years, were not rising, but level-ish. Hmmmm -- bad old IPCC bogeyman?
  
  Actually. given the lower solar activity, some volcanism, the vast SE Asian particulate cloud, and ENSO states, we should have been starting into a cooling and even entering the next Milankovitch Cycle's probable ice age. But, thanks to our (your?) combustion buddies, we haven't. And now that ENSO & solar activities have changed, while emissions continued increasing CO2 (and others), we're not going to see an Ice Age at all. Thanks for the Anthropocene!
  
  Maybe we should offer you the same yearly bet Monckton wisely refused in 2009, eh? Or, maybe you'd prefer the trust -- we buy and outfit a lovely, low isle in the Maldives and guarantee a mansion and all the goodies you could ever want, continually supplied. But, once you retire there to live that fantasy life, you can't ever leave. No helicopter rescue. No boats allowed away from the island, no matter which floor of your mansion gets submerged.
  
  Monckton wouldn't take it either.
  ;]
  Keep thrashing away, Markus, it's fun. See, what you think doesn't matter. The only purpose here is to be sure others aren't misled by your chaff. And, if any handlers you may have see how this goes, they may pull any plug that may be keeping you afloat.
  
  So i agree, Markus: "why not try some scientific observations?" So far you got nada.
  
  10 months ago report
12. Gerard Dean
  
  Managing Director
  
  In reply to Mike Hansen
  
  Ahha
  
  It's my old mate Mr Hansen. I haven't got time to read your comment, but I know it is wrong anyway.
  
  Regards
  
  Old JetA1
  (Actually, sometimes you get some things right, but I don't like admitting it)
  
  10 months ago report
13. Mike Hansen
  
  Mr
  
  In reply to Gerard Dean
  
  "I haven't got time to read your comment, but I know it is wrong anyway"
  
  That's OK Gerard. Being a troll, you never read the articles that you comment on either. Why change the habits of a lifetime?
  
  10 months ago report
14. Gary Murphy
  
  Independent Thinker
  
  In reply to markus fitzhenry
  
  Antarctic Temperatures:
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Antarctic_Temperature_Trend_1981-2007.jpg
  from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Antarctica
  
  10 months ago report
15. Alex Cannara
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to Gary Murphy
  
  Yes Gary, and the trend is much worse in recent years. Up north, just two weeks ago, we succeeded for the first time in turning the top layer of Greenland's ice to slush...
  http://tinyurl.com/cepkxag
  
  And, being no dummies, China has been contracting with Iceland, etc. to set up a logistics port for products shipped directly from China via the Arctic Ocean, for eastern US and Euro distribution, while Russia deploys shipborne 300MW reactors to power Siberian coastal industrial development.
  
  10 months ago report
16. Gerard Dean
  
  Managing Director
  
  In reply to Mike Hansen
  
  Mr Hansen
  
  Oh dear, irony isn't one of your strong points, my comments were a well natured rib. You know well that I argue with facts and don't stoop to name calling as others do on this site.
  
  - Professor Flannery is the Panasonic Chair of Environmental Sustainability. Virtually none of Panasonic's world wide production of electronic, audio visual or industrial equipment is made or powered sustainably.
  - Professor Flannery, by his own admission, flies around the world as part of his job, to…
  Read more
  
  Mr Hansen
  
  Oh dear, irony isn't one of your strong points, my comments were a well natured rib. You know well that I argue with facts and don't stoop to name calling as others do on this site.
  
  - Professor Flannery is the Panasonic Chair of Environmental Sustainability. Virtually none of Panasonic's world wide production of electronic, audio visual or industrial equipment is made or powered sustainably.
  - Professor Flannery, by his own admission, flies around the world as part of his job, to promote his books and to holiday.
  - Professor Flannery knows that air travel uses non renewable coal, oil and gas to fly him around the world.
  - Professor Flannery knows that human air travel uses millions of tonnes of coal, oil and gas annually.
  - Professor Flannery says today, "Now, because of the volume of coal, oil, and gas humans are burning, the state’s climate is changing again."
  - Professor Flannery uses far more non renewable coal, oil and gas than the average Victorian, thereby contributing to climate change more than the average Victorian.
  
  Now, Mr Hansen, I challenge you to disprove one of the facts above.
  
  There is a name for people who tell us to do one thing, then do the opposite themselves.
  
  Gerard Dean
  Glen Iris
  
  10 months ago report
17. Alex Cannara
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to Gerard Dean
  
  "Oh dear, irony isn't one of your strong points," -- Gerard Dean
  
  "I argue with facts and don't stoop to name calling" -- Gerard Dean
  
  Hmmm, now what version of English thesaurus & semantics are you diddling with, Gerald?
  ;]
  
  10 months ago report
John Nicol

logged in via Facebook

Tim,

A recent IPCC report which you appear to have missed, indicated that after a two year study of historical severe weather events, that there was a VERY LOW possibility that they were influenced by climate change. The history of floods in Queensland and fires in Victoria from the early 1800s (starting 1838 for Queensland) shows clearly that the severity of these recent events is much lower and fewer than in earlier times - like 150 years ago.

This is totally consistent with the findings of this special IPCC report.

Could you therefore carefully explain to your readers why you pick out the fires or "heat wave" deaths of 2009 as being caused by climate change? I believe deaths related to cold weather far out weigh those related to heat anyway.
Thank you, John Nicol

10 months ago report
1. Mike Hansen
  
  Mr
  
  In reply to John Nicol
  
  John Nicol is echoing the empathetic (not) views of Heartland Institute policy adviser John Dunn who stated at their last climate denial get together that
  
  “Warm is good for people, and it’s particularly good for people as they get older,” said Dunn. “The people that warm spells kill are already moribund.” He went on to say that only extreme cold caused extra deaths."
  
  http://grist.org/list/heartland-adviser-heat-waves-only-kill-people-who-were-basically-dead-already/
  
  10 months ago report
2. Ken Swanson
  
  Geologist
  
  In reply to John Nicol
  
  John
  You will not get a reply from this guy.
  He has no clue.
  His predictions to date have been laughable.
  Like Julia Gillard, every one has turned off Tim Flannery long ago.
  Commenting on his article here is a waste of time.
  Abbott will remove him and without his raft of government hand outs/ grants Tim will not be heard of again.
  
  10 months ago report
3. Mike Hansen
  
  Mr
  
  In reply to Ken Swanson
  
  "Abbott will remove him..."
  
  Ken. Will that be before or after he closes down the BOM, the CSIRO and university climate science departments?
  
  Below are a list of articles from scientists from those organisations saying essentially the same thing as Flannery is saying in his article.
  
  https://theconversation.edu.au/droughts-and-flooding-rains-climate-change-models-predict-increases-in-both-5470
  https://theconversation.edu.au/explainer-what-we-know-and-dont-know-about-climate-change-1934
  https://theconversation.edu.au/getting-projections-right-predicting-future-climate-1936
  https://theconversation.edu.au/droughts-and-flooding-rains-what-is-due-to-climate-change-6524
  https://theconversation.edu.au/as-australia-lurches-from-drought-to-floods-temperatures-continue-to-rise-5832
  
  10 months ago report
4. Alex Cannara
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to Mike Hansen
  
  I guess we have to get the Glieck list of who's getting paid by us up here to lie down there again! And add The American Tradition Institute (only one tradition -- $), which also fronts bucks for BS.
  
  Nicol, Dunn & crew will likely be 1st in line when sea rise, climate or fish loss cause your govt to pay compensation.
  ;]
  I'd love to be on the rescue chopper, in charge of the rope hoist!
  
  10 months ago report
5. Ian Ashman
  
  Manager
  
  In reply to Mike Hansen
  
  You get the feeling that Ken is an old fashioned Jonesian Chaff Bagger?
  
  10 months ago report
6. Philip Dowling
  
  IT teacher
  
  In reply to Mike Hansen
  
  Do they believe in Gaia too?
  
  10 months ago report
Sean Lamb

Science Denier

I still want to know what became of the plan to clone the thylacine.

10 months ago report
Philip Dowling

IT teacher

So "Victoria forms part of Australia’s southern fringe" according to Tim Flannery. I note that Victoria is not a promontory, a peninsula, a spit nor any other geographical term that I could recognise. Fearing that Victoria had merely become the result of a bad haircut, I checked out other possible meanings. At end of it I was not sure which meaning Tim had in mind. I trust that this was not just a subtle interstate put down.
1. A decorative border or edging of hanging threads, cords, or strips…
Read more

So "Victoria forms part of Australia’s southern fringe" according to Tim Flannery. I note that Victoria is not a promontory, a peninsula, a spit nor any other geographical term that I could recognise. Fearing that Victoria had merely become the result of a bad haircut, I checked out other possible meanings. At end of it I was not sure which meaning Tim had in mind. I trust that this was not just a subtle interstate put down.
1. A decorative border or edging of hanging threads, cords, or strips, often attached to a separate band.
2. Something that resembles such a border or edging.
3. A marginal, peripheral, or secondary part:
www.thefreedictionary.com/fringe
: an ornamental border consisting of short straight or twisted threads or strips hanging from cut or raveled edges or from a separate band
2
d : an area bordering a putting green on a golf course with grass trimmed longer than on the green itself
3
a : something that is marginal, additional, or secondary to some activity, process, or subject
b : a group with marginal or extremist views
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fringe
1an ornamental border of threads left loose or formed into tassels or twists, used to edge clothing or material: a long grey skirt with a fringe the fringes of a prayer shawl

2chiefly British the front part of someone’s hair, cut so as to hang over the forehead: she smiled as she pushed her fringe back out of her eyes
a natural border of hair or fibres in an animal or plant: a long fringe of hair on the tail

3 (often the fringes) the outer, marginal, or extreme part of an area, group, or sphere of activity:
http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/fringe

10 months ago report
1. Seamus Gardiner
  
  Citizen
  
  In reply to Philip Dowling
  
  That's one of the most amazing strawman/composition fallacy arguments I've seen for a loooong time... how long did it take to write that rebuff of nothing?
  
  10 months ago report
2. Philip Dowling
  
  IT teacher
  
  In reply to Seamus Gardiner
  
  Sean,
  I was merely asking a question.
  I tried to keep it simple for Tim. Nor did I wish to embarrass him by asking him what he considered Tasmania to be. In secondary school my atlas indicated that Tasmania is on the same tectonic plate as the REST of Australia.
  Is Tim proposing a different view of geology?
  Or does he not consider Tasmania significant?
  
  10 months ago report
3. Ian Ashman
  
  Manager
  
  In reply to Philip Dowling
  
  Agree Sean, just plain weird.
  
  10 months ago report
4. Philip Dowling
  
  IT teacher
  
  In reply to Seamus Gardiner
  
  Actually Sean I was going to add the Macquarie definition as well.
  However Tim has so damaged the Macquarie University brand that I didn't bother.
  
  10 months ago report
5. Ian Ashman
  
  Manager
  
  In reply to Philip Dowling
  
  Ehrlinger, Joyce, Kerri Johnson, Matthew Banner, David Dunning, and Justin Kruger (2008),
  
  "Why the Unskilled are Unaware: Further Explorations of (Absent) Self-Insight Among the Incompetent." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 105 (1), 98-121
  
  10 months ago report
Philip Dowling

IT teacher

Professor Tim Flannery asserts that Victoria lies "between the deserts to the northwest, and oceans to the south".
I was wondering how it is that Victoria apparently has no Eastern boundary.
Or did he mean to say "between the deserts to the northwest, and oceans to the south and east".
Of course, to the south lies Bass Strait and Tasmania as well.
Perhaps it would be more accurate to say "between the deserts to the northwest, and Bass strait and the Southern ocean to the south and the Tasman Sea to the east".
Having driven a few years ago from Adelaide to Broken Hill when it was 41C, I will admit that this area was rather dry at the time. However it was also clear that there was still significant vegetation and grazing activities.
It would be useful for Tim to clarify exactly which deserts he has in mind.

10 months ago report
1. Ian Ashman
  
  Manager
  
  In reply to Philip Dowling
  
  Reduced to making silly, irrelevant comments because he has no valid argument. Welcome to the mind of a climate change denier.
  
  10 months ago report
2. Philip Dowling
  
  IT teacher
  
  In reply to Ian Ashman
  
  Ian,
  Welcome to the mind of a person who is concerned that a professor who is paid a large sum of money to spout nonsense that even person a with a junior secondary knowledge of geography can poke holes in.
  Ian, I am a person whose mind was trained in identifying errors in the syntax of assembly language programs, and the logic of theorems in pure mathematics proofs.
  If a person can't even get basic facts correct, what hope is there for the integrity of the rest of his argument.
  When I am wrong, stuff doesn't work.
  When Tim is wrong, he changes his predictions.
  
  10 months ago report
3. Ian Ashman
  
  Manager
  
  In reply to Philip Dowling
  
  Nothing wrong at all with being a TAFE teacher, very important role, one slip in the code and *POOF* you've detonated a thermonuclear device (sorry I meant you've scrambled the new automated menu in the subsidised lunch room).
  
  Let's have a look at your high quality syntax:
  
  "Welcome to the mind of a person who is concerned that [should be 'about' or 'with'] a professor who is paid a large sum of money to spout nonsense that even person a [should be 'a person'] with a junior secondary knowledge…
  Read more
  
  Nothing wrong at all with being a TAFE teacher, very important role, one slip in the code and *POOF* you've detonated a thermonuclear device (sorry I meant you've scrambled the new automated menu in the subsidised lunch room).
  
  Let's have a look at your high quality syntax:
  
  "Welcome to the mind of a person who is concerned that [should be 'about' or 'with'] a professor who is paid a large sum of money to spout nonsense that even person a [should be 'a person'] with a junior secondary knowledge of geography can poke holes in [clumsy end].
  ***syntax fail***
  
  "Ian, I am a person whose mind was trained in identifying [ should be 'to identify'] errors in the syntax of assembly language programs, [comma not required] and the logic of theorems in pure mathematics proofs[ clumsy construction - plurals confused].
  ***does not parse***
  
  "If a person can't even get basic facts correct, what hope is there for the integrity of the rest of his argument [missing '?']"
  ***minor syntax error***
  
  "When Tim is wrong, he changes his predictions. [logic failure: the alternative you are suggesting is that he should continue to cling to a prediction when he knows it is wrong. A bit like a climate change denier?]
  ***logic and syntax errors***
  
  I think it is time for you to dust off that good ol' mind and give it a bit more of that high quality trainin'.
  
  10 months ago report
4. Philip Dowling
  
  IT teacher
  
  In reply to Ian Ashman
  
  Ian,
  Thank you for your comments.
  I think that you may find "The Mother Tongue - English And How It Got That Way." by Bill Bryson useful in broadening your knowledge.
  I must admit that I am used to utilising an automated grammar checker at work, so I apologize for any minor errors.
  
  10 months ago report
5. Mike Hansen
  
  Mr
  
  In reply to Philip Dowling
  
  Dowling says
  " I am a person whose mind was trained in identifying errors in the syntax of assembly language programs, and the logic of theorems in pure mathematics proofs."
  
  Why do climate science deniers spend so much time pumping up their own tyres. And the less they know the more they pump.
  
  I think I just answered my own question.
  
  10 months ago report
6. Alex Cannara
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to Mike Hansen
  
  And, Mike, using as advertizement Assembly Language, with it's exceedingly narrow syntax, and theorem syntax, which can be automatically checked by simple programs, are Einsteinian achievements?
  
  Puffery, thy name is "climate science deniers".
  ;]
  
  10 months ago report
7. Ian Ashman
  
  Manager
  
  In reply to Philip Dowling
  
  I hear they run some good ESL courses at TAFE, maybe you can book yourself into one of them?
  
  Minor errors? But you say your mind is highly trained, much like a dancing bear I'm sure. How you could make sure errors? Surely if you are going to quibble over silly little points in Flannery's article then you must set a higher standard?
  
  10 months ago report
8. Ian Ashman
  
  Manager
  
  In reply to Mike Hansen
  
  Calling Professors Dunning and Kruger...
  
  Kruger, Justin; David Dunning (1999). "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77 (6): 1121–34.
  
  10 months ago report
9. John Nicol
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to Ian Ashman
  
  Ian,
  
  I am often concerned "that" I might subject myself to the criticismn of others whenever I join The Converstaion. I think you have picked up a couple of typos at worst, not grammatical errors in your criticism of Philip's comment.
  
  You say "trained in identifying [ should be 'to identify'] errors in the syntax.". I think Philips use of "in identifying" is the more correct syntax in the context of what he is saying with regard to the general process rather than a specific error.
  
  Also "pure mathematics" is a subject - not a plural, but the logic of theorems applies to (plural = many) proofs.
  
  The rhetorical question "What hopoe is there for..." does not require a question mark - it is up to the choice of the author.
  
  I think when Tim Flannery is wrong, he forgets to admit that he was wrong and tries to pretend that his earlier prediction was somewhat different.
  John Nicol
  
  10 months ago report
10. Ian Ashman
  
  Manager
  
  In reply to John Nicol
  
  John, you poor old thing. Your corrections make no sense! Maybe English is your second language as well?
  
  The point being - when some smartarse tries to pick geographic holes in a climate change article, you know he is a sad loser, who needs 'correction'. Smugness and climate denial seem to go hand in hand.
  
  And how goes your climate denial hate group? Is the money still flowing in from the Heartland Institute? You remember them, the group in the US which equates climate science with terrorists. Your friends.
  
  10 months ago report
11. Alex Cannara
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to John Nicol
  
  " I am often concerned "that" I might subject myself to the criticismn of others whenever I join The Converstaion. "
  
  Yes, John, when the going gets rough on the facts front, play victim!
  
  We have plenty of scurrilous folks in the combustion biz and politics who do that too. Too bad you choose that instead of honest study of fact. You're old enough to know better.
  
  In any case, here's the latest record event our laxity with the combustion industry has presented us and our descendents with...
  
  Snorkling on Greenland anyone?...
  www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/24/greenland-ice-sheet-thaw-nasa?newsfeed=true
  
  The slush became about a foot deep in 5 days. An Olympic medal in ice-cap melting!
  
  10 months ago report
Philip Dowling

IT teacher

Tim is surprised that "Relict patches of desert mallee on Melbourne’s western fringes" still exist.
"mallees are slow growing, tough trees which originate from arid and semi arid regions. But they're found from Tasmania to the Tropic" according to Sophie Thomson.
http://www.abc.net.au/gardening/stories/s1763882.htm
However even assuming that there has been rapid climate change as Tim asserts in Victoria, these trees indicate that rapid climate change is not simply a recent man-made phenomen but naturally occurring.
Has anybody hiked from Melbourne to Launceston recently. It used to be possible.

10 months ago report
Anthony Nolan

Ruminant

Short: Victoria will be uninhabitable within 50 years. Plan now.

10 months ago report
Gerard Dean

Managing Director

PANASONIC Chair in Environmental Sustainability.

Panasonic make audio-electronic equipment which is made from the following:

- Aluminium. Mined, shipped and processed using electricity. Smelted, refined, formed, extruded, heat treated, anodised, pickled, machined, drilled, tapped using electricity.
- Copper. Mined, shipped, smelted, refined, formed, extruded using
- Plastics sourced from oil feedstock. 99% virgin feedstock. Recycled plastic cannot be used.
- Rere earths. Essential for manufacture…
Read more

PANASONIC Chair in Environmental Sustainability.

Panasonic make audio-electronic equipment which is made from the following:

- Aluminium. Mined, shipped and processed using electricity. Smelted, refined, formed, extruded, heat treated, anodised, pickled, machined, drilled, tapped using electricity.
- Copper. Mined, shipped, smelted, refined, formed, extruded using
- Plastics sourced from oil feedstock. 99% virgin feedstock. Recycled plastic cannot be used.
- Rere earths. Essential for manufacture of silicon chips, transistors etc.
- Beryllium Copper. Switches.
- Chromium, Zinc, iron, tin,lead etc etc etc etc etc etc

- Product Life cycle. Typically 3 - 5 years.
- Supported lifetime 10 years. (Maximum time Panasonic will supply spare parts after ceasing production.)
- Recycled % of product. Less than 1%
- Repair and serviceabilty. Non repairable. Warranty by replacement only. Post warranty, replace with new.
- Shipment: Airfreight to reduce shipping time to market and reduce pilferage.
- Australian content: 0%

Now, once more, but slowly; PANASONIC Chair in Environmental Sustainability.

I love nothing better than havin' Elmore James spit slide guitar blues outa' my Yamaha amp, but don't nobody never tell me it's sustainable.

Next you will be telling me that Professor Flannery's recent world wide air tour to sell his latest book was sustainable. (Don't you get me onto JetA1 fuel again.)

Gerard "The Troll" Dean
Glen Iris

10 months ago report
1. Mike Hansen
  
  Mr
  
  In reply to Gerard Dean
  
  All those red ticks Gerard - I guess people here assume that you are a troll.
  
  I on the other hand read your comment as a passionate plea for a carbon price to make all those unsustainable inputs more expensive.
  
  10 months ago report
2. Gerard Dean
  
  Managing Director
  
  In reply to Mike Hansen
  
  Mr Hansen
  
  Again we agree. Virtually all of Panasonic's inputs are unsustainable. Of the inputs, the carbon tax will only affect the power that runs the Pansonic plants, the rest have to pulled out of old mother earth, whether we like it or not.
  
  I really don't think people like knowing that the keyboard, computer and display in front of them is made from virgin earth resources and as such, is totally unsustainable.
  
  Funny things us humans.
  
  Gerard "The Troll" Dean
  Glen Iris
  
  10 months ago report
John McBride

Associate Professor

Tim Flannery has written a timely article on both the impacts and the adaptation opportunities for Victoria.
In September this year, the Royal Society of Victoria in association with the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute will be holding a 2 day Symposium on Climate Change Science: Impacts and Adaptation for Victoria. Speakers are from Australian Universities, CSIRO, and the Bureau of Meteorology. The program is structured such that there will be ample time for feedback and discussion.
Information on the programme and form to register are at
http://www.icms.com.au/climatechange/

All readers of The Conversation are encouraged to register and attend.

10 months ago report
David Nutzuki

logged in via Twitter

Do we WANT a President Romney and more Harper? No of course not so we have to stop driving votes away to Romney when we “threaten” our own voting base and their children with a death by climate change. Is this all worth it, really? In the voter’s eye we are now just the Big Green Fear Machine now. We goofed.
-Occupywallstreet does not even mention CO2 in its list of demands because of the bank-funded carbon trading stock markets run by corporations.
-Julian Assange is of course a climate change denier.
-Obama has not mentioned the crisis in the last two State of the Unions addresses.
-Canada killed Kyoto with a newly elected climate change denying prime minister and nobody cared, even the millions of scientists.

10 months ago report
1. Alex Cannara
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to David Nutzuki
  
  All true, but, we knew what we had to do >50 years ago, and started: http://tinyurl.com/6xgpkfa But got sidetracked by Cold War decisions: http://tinyurl.com/73p7ler by a non-scientist!
  
  We would have half the climate issues today, and likely not have seen this remarkable event...
  www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/24/greenland-ice-sheet-thaw-nasa?newsfeed=true
  
  that testifies to our stupidity & cupidity, as just a harbinger of what's fast arriving that no one will like.
  .
  
  10 months ago report
John Nicol

logged in via Facebook

Those of yoiu who are waorried about bushfires and flooding as well as the recent comments about Greenland's Ic Sheet, may be able to draw comfort from the following.

It appears that people who study these things know that the behaviour of significant Greenland melting is a cyclical thing which is well documented as having a roughly 150 year cycle. Sound a bit familiar? Enjoy.

NASA’s claim that Greenland is experiencing “unprecedented” melting is nothing but a bunch of hot air, according…
Read more

Those of yoiu who are waorried about bushfires and flooding as well as the recent comments about Greenland's Ic Sheet, may be able to draw comfort from the following.

It appears that people who study these things know that the behaviour of significant Greenland melting is a cyclical thing which is well documented as having a roughly 150 year cycle. Sound a bit familiar? Enjoy.

NASA’s claim that Greenland is experiencing “unprecedented” melting is nothing but a bunch of hot air, according to scientists who say the country's ice sheets melt with some regularity.

A heat dome over the icy country melted a whopping 97 percent of Greenland’s ice sheet in mid-July, NASA said, calling it yet more evidence of the effect man is having on the planet.

But the unusual-seeming event had nothing to do with hot air, according to glaciologists. It was actually to be expected.

"Ice cores from Summit station [Greenland’s coldest and highest] show that melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average. With the last one happening in 1889, this event is right on time," said Lora Koenig, a Goddard glaciologist and a member of the research team analyzing the satellite data.

But rather than a regular 150-year planetary cycle, the new NASA report calls the melt “unprecedented,” the result of a recent strong ridge of warm air, or a heat dome, over Greenland -- one of a series that has dominated Greenland's weather since the end of May.

'NASA should start distributing dictionaries to the authors of its press releases.'
- Patrick J. Michaels, a climatologist

"Each successive ridge has been stronger than the previous one," said Thomas Mote, a climatologist at the University of Georgia. This latest heat dome started to move over Greenland on July 8, and then parked itself over the ice sheet about three days later. By July 16, it had begun to dissipate, along with the ice, NASA said.

Climate skeptics said the NASA report itself was the only “unprecedented” item.

“NASA should start distributing dictionaries to the authors of its press releases,” joked Patrick J. Michaels, a climatologist and the author of the World Climate Report blog.

“It’s somewhat like the rush to blame severe weather and drought on global warming,” Anthony Watts, a noted climate skeptic and the author of the Watts Up With That blog, told FoxNews.com. “Yet when you look into the past, you find precedence for what is being described today as unprecedented.”

It's the latest hot water for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, which critics say has shifted focus and priorities from space and aeronautics to the earth we live on -- and the planet's changing climate.

NASA chief cryospheric scientist H. Jay Zwally told FoxNews.com that the melting has been increasing as the temperatures in Greenland have been increasing.

“Climate in the Arctic has been warming about three to four times more than the global average, and Greenland surface temperatures (observed by satellite and surface instruments) have been increasing about 2 degrees Celsius per decade during about the last 20 years,” he said. (Bullshit! the purported warming of the polar regions comes from a >1500 Km extrapolation of temperature by Mr Hansen. They don't know what is happening and the present Arctic melting is also a cyclical [~50 y] event that is probably related to ocean circulation. BB)

Zwally would be in a position to know: He was lead scientist for the ICESat project, which ran from 2003 to 2010, and used satellites to measure Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets.

“This is the most extensive area of surface melting during last 40 years of satellite observations,” he said.

It may be in line with the 150-year cycles of melting, however. Mary Albert, executive director of the NSF Ice Core Drilling office, and Kaitlin Keegan, an engineering PhD student and a fellow in Dartmouth’s polar environmental change program, are working on a paper on the Greenland ice sheet melt, a school spokeswoman told FoxNews.com.

Neither was available to describe the exact findings, but in a blog posting detailing her work, Keegan noted that several cores dating back millennia have also reflected the 150-year cycle.

“In Greenland there have been many deep ice-core drilling projects which drilled ice to the bedrock,” she wrote. “In the past 10,000 years (the Holocene), there is on average a melt layer every 150 years.”

NASA ice scientist Tom Wagner told the Associated Press researchers don't know precisely how much of Greenland's ice had melted in this latest event, but it seems to be freezing again.

“The belief that almost any aberration in weather and climate today can be attributed to global warming is pure folly,” Watts told FoxNews.com.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/07/26/skeptics-put-freeze-on-nasa-hot-air-about-greenland-ice/#ixzz21l2gVh8R

10 months ago report
1. Ian Ashman
  
  Manager
  
  In reply to John Nicol
  
  Fox News. Fox News John?
  
  Even for a supporter of a climate denial hate group this one takes the biscuit. May as well quote WUWT or other right wing climate change denier sites.
  
  "Tides come in, tides go out. You can't explain that." Bill O'Reilly. Fox Network.
  
  10 months ago report
2. Alex Cannara
  
  logged in via Facebook
  
  In reply to John Nicol
  
  Another uber-long comment designed to create much stir, yet signifying nothing. Keep at it John, your handlers may be proud, but getting nervous at the evident desperation.
  
  You're old enough to know better and you never had the nerve to continue our private email discussion. Why, John? Why?
  ;]
  
  10 months ago report
Glenys Liddell

A Melbournian

Climate Commission – Where is your Backbone?

Many of us are well aware of the climate issues we face and acknowledge their seriousness.

The informed public now looks to our Climate Commission not only as a resource but as a steering committee, expecting far greater impact than the content provided by the Commissioners at your public meeting on Tues (Melb RMIT 24/7).

You cannot head your report “The Critical Decade” then tell us to go home and do what we can for ourselves and with our neighbours…
Read more

Climate Commission – Where is your Backbone?

Many of us are well aware of the climate issues we face and acknowledge their seriousness.

The informed public now looks to our Climate Commission not only as a resource but as a steering committee, expecting far greater impact than the content provided by the Commissioners at your public meeting on Tues (Melb RMIT 24/7).

You cannot head your report “The Critical Decade” then tell us to go home and do what we can for ourselves and with our neighbours.

For a big problem we need a big answer – alongside the small improvements individuals can make.

What is the Climate Commission telling Parliament that Australia MUST achieve on a large scale, to do our part in helping bring the climate out of the danger zone and into some safety? Big solar (Concentrated Solar Thermal) in particular needs propulsion, authorisation and investment, now.

No matter how many homes install PV solar panels on our roofs – our industries will always require levels of power which only a national electricity grid can provide.

Once the base load of electricity is provided by renewables, we can nationally feel a little better.

We expect the Climate Commission to drive the big solutions.

10 months ago report

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