Barack Obama’s re-election won’t generate the same exuberance as 2008. The lofty rhetoric of “Hope” and “Change” has been replaced by the much more sombre message of “Forward”.
And while four years ago the senator from Illinois vowed to change the way Washington works, most Americans won’t be holding their breath this time around after the bitter partisanship that has plagued US politics. But the President’s victory on Tuesday over Republican challenger Mitt Romney is important for a much more tangible reason: it means the preservation and implementation of the most far-reaching domestic policy accomplishments of any president since at least Lyndon Johnson.
Despite complaints that he’s failed to live up to expectations Obama has had an extremely eventful and productive first term in office. And, for better or worse, Republicans campaigned on a promise to repeal two of his biggest pieces of legislation: The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Overseeing the implementation of the latter will by a central task of Obama’s second term and the law will almost certainly become the defining legacy of his presidency. It’s an enormous achievement for the progresive cause.
Given the striking ideological divide between the two parties the outcome of this election was extremely consequential, in large part because of the major reforms proposed by the Romney/Ryan campaign. But at this point, we’re probably less interested in those sorts of counterfactuals and more curious as to what the second half of the Obama presidency will look like.
It’s likely that the biggest political moment for the president will occur within the next several months. Unable to find significant common ground on a comprehensive budget deal, the President and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives have continually kicked the can down the road. But time is quickly running out. On January 1 the extension of the Bush tax cuts and payroll tax cuts is set to expire at the same time that large-scale cuts to discretionary spending-primarily military spending-go into effect.
Obama is naturally drawn to compromise and may well try to do whatever possible to reach a grand bargain in the coming months. On the other hand, the terms of the fiscal cliff provides the President with some leverage. Once tax rates go up any budget deal could then be framed as cutting taxes instead of raising them. Democrats would automatically have the higher taxes on the upper class they’ve been calling for and then could subsequently reduce taxes for everyone else. Many liberals want Obama to make full use of this advantage and take an especially hardline approach in negotiations.
How Obama plays his hand will influence historical judgements of his presidential temperament and also be critical in shaping the long-term fiscal path of the country.
Other large-scale changes will be harder to come by. Unlike the first two years of his term, Obama won’t have the advantage of large Democratic majorities in Congress. As such, new legislation will be hard fought and more often then not narrow in scope.
Significant reform is most likely on immigration. There’s agreement between the two parties on some of the key issues and Republican leaders realise that they need to take a softer tone in order to regain credibility with Latino voters. While there’s been no serious talks between the two parties recently I wouldn’t be surprised to see a deal reached sometime in the next four years.
Two years ago the country voiced their clear displeasure with the President and his party in the 2010 midterm elections. Yesterday, they offered a fairly firm re-endorsment of the man they elected to turn the country around. And as an added bonus, Obama will reap the political benefits of presiding over an improving – if still fragile – economy.
No, this doesn’t have quite the same feel as 2008, but it’s probably just as important.
Ron Chinchen
Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)
Thank goodness sanity has prevailed. What shape would USA take if the Tea Party group were allowed a taste of power. The thought scares me.
Ken Swanson
Geologist
Yes the Tea Party have the same stench as a Van Jones or Eric Holder about them.
Both types should be expunged from the mainstream of US politics
Ron Chinchen
Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)
I have the same concerns in Australian politics. If the Liberal Party gain power in next year's Federal Election I would feel OK if Turnbull was their leader, but not Abbot. Too many suggestions of heavy right wing influences seem to be with him, including the conservative Christian groups who are just as likely to start interfering again with people's rights on their perceived moral grounds..
William Bruce
Artist
Ron...Re your post...I hate "name calling" words like he's "TOO RIGHT or LEFT WING etc"...
They are utterly meaningless to me...one needs to be specific about these things ....eg is trade policy with NZ or sheep exports or the NBN or Abo. policy or Afghan war really right or left wing?? ..it is ridiculous to me to label these things Right or Left...
The question is, is it "good or bad" policy.
Why can't you clearly say what specifically has Abbott done or said he will do or what you fear he will do that has you so anti-Abbott?
Also, there is the matter of political posting "shills" one must consider?
Ron Chinchen
Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)
I'm not going to get into that anecotal game playing William...oh look at this web site...oh look at that web site...he said this ...ah yes but he said that. That gets no where as is so evidenced in so many of these forum items.
Lets just say my former employment assisted me in reading people and picking up on small and at time seemingly inconsequential things that they say over time that tell you much about attitudes. Of course that's a personal perception, but it has assisted me through the decades of trying to see the other persons point of view and attitudes.
Turnbull is an opportunist, but he's smart and has pretty good common sense and will flow with the tide of public opinion. Abbot is an idealist, smart but locked into what he thinks is right...always a dangerous position
William Bruce
Artist
Don't assume!
Steve Brown
logged in via email @yahoo.com.au
I have no idea what drives this fascination with Malcolm Turnbull, particularly amongst non-Liberal party voters.
Have you forgotten that the Liberal party- and any political party for that matter- is not one person? That it is not controlled by the ideas of one person? That the leader doesn't actually have much sway? That the last time Turnbull tried to turn attention towards an important issue when he was the leader he lost his job?
Ron Chinchen
Retired (ex Probation and Parole Officer)
And of course you werent going to raise such issues, William, were you?.
As for Steve Brown, I would suggest you are being a might naive if you think a leader of a political party in Australia doesnt have a significant amount of say in how he runs the country.
Sure he has limits, but all political parties have a wide range of political positions. What makes a leader strong, is the allies to his or her position in the party and their support of outside pressure groups. You cant suggest to…
Read moreWilliam Bruce
logged in via Facebook
Ron....we need to get away from rhetoric & name calling...you note re Abbott/Libs..."...should their more extremist views, some of which are supported by Abbot, become politically relevant."
Why can't you communicate what you think are "their more extremist views"?
Eg. One might think "What could be more extremist than our current bi-partisan foreign policy"?
Michael Shand
Michael Shand is a Friend of The Conversation.
Software Tester
Get ready for the "Grand Bargin"
William Bruce
Artist
Freedman notes "The lofty rhetoric of “Hope” and “Change” has been replaced by the much more sombre message of “Forward”'
In fact, perhaps this is about it full stop!.....What choice did the people really have?....lots of illusion of "choice" but about 99% things over next few years will likely remain the same...(due to "financial backers of BOTH sides & Media)....Where is the real choice?.....
Read moreIs there not to be the same rising destruction of US Industries due to "IMF bankers & Politicians…
William Bruce
Artist
One more thing,...perhaps ONE THING which MIGHT change is health welfare ...IT MIGHT be improved under Obama but perhaps only IF congress & senate agree to it....A BIG IF.
And, perhaps due to Oz being about the most fortunate & prosperous nation on earth we can afford to have such a TOTALLY privileged system....( and perhaps JUST afford to).... but without major changes I seriously wonder if USA can afford too much of this?
Theo van den Berg
IT Consultant
Yes, keeping Obama at the helm will be much better for the globe than the other one. The Emperor made a very inspiring victory speech too, but inspiring to whom. America is the best and I will do whatever it takes to make sure that America stays the best. At the cost of whom ?
Mary Mannison
Retired Academic
The victory bravado may have been all right for a football game ("we're the best"), but embarrassing and insulting on the world stage. The whole world was watching you know. What do we do with "The United states of America is the best country in the world" when global issues such as war and climate change are not even on the agenda?
William Bruce
Artist
Too right Mary!
Firozali A.Mulla
PhD
NO MALICE No PUN INTENDED. Was this a win is the question many ask? Wall Street reacted strongly to Tuesday’s election results with a broad selloff. As the deadline looms over the fiscal cliff, worries of possible debt downgrades remain in focus. After the election, small-businesses know the Affordable Care Act will stand, and tax increases for those making above $250,000 are likely. Now that the 2012 race for the White House is in the books, the spotlight on Wall Street is shifting from a major…
Read moreHeather Tyler
logged in via Twitter
Obama won because the Republican Party is run by a bunch of white dudes still thinking it's 1984; Romney was too harsh on immigration and abortion; he alienated the Hispanic vote and that of other miniorities who collectively are not the minority any more; he had nothing in his foreign policy binder; his promise of getting people back to work was merely a puff piece etc. Obama also won because Americans have longer memories than Romney gives them credit for, and they still remember the failed economics of George W. Bush. And Obama won because the US is a changing society and he better reflects those changes.
Firozali A.Mulla
PhD
08/11/2012Obama didn’t win despite the numbers. He won because the media didn’t report them. They spent an entire campaign promoting social issues – abortion, gay marriage and more – where journalists near 100 percent support. The onslaught against GOP candidates was huge. The left/media strategy was merely to link Romney with any social conservative they could and hype what that candidate said. The markets tilted slightly higher Thursday as traders mulled better-than-expected economic data and news…
Read moreFirozali A.Mulla
PhD
When two opposite points of view are expressed with equal intensity, the truth does not necessarily lie exactly halfway between them. It is possible for one side to be simply wrong. -Richard Dawkins, biologist and author (b. 1941) A somewhat angry Donald Trump called for a march on Washington in the wake of Obama's victory From our economic outlook to foreign policy, Barack Obama's second term could bring big changes. The most critical aspect of this is the economic issue it raises. For better or…
Read moreWilliam Bruce
logged in via Facebook
I wouldn't bother looking at the politicians re "fiscal cliffs" & "Liquidity" "Economic Policy" etc....
I would be looking in the direction of the small PRIVATE elite that perhaps control The US Federal Reserve and also control, the personnel & "debt creating" agenda of IMF & Word Bank.....
This is where the policy disaster seems to be coming from.....
One shudders imagining Gillard et al bowing at the feet of these IMF & World Bank "people's" policies which have seemingly FAILED EVERYWHERE they have pushed their "Elite Clubs" debt and repression & military.....
Denis White
Retired
Fours years ago Obama vowed to change the way Washington worked. The word is that presently America’s foreign deficit tops 16 trillion dollars against a GDP of 15 trillion dollars. Their unemployed numbers are around 50 million out of a population of 350 million. The major employer is the military/corporate industrial complex which demands 51% of congressional discretional spending, money which would assuredly be better spent for the greater wellbeing of the general populace.
Read moreThe ordinary citizens…
William Bruce
logged in via Facebook
Denis White noteworthily notes:-
"The choice however, is inconsequential because whichever party gains the leadership they are already entrenched in the culture of the complex and so are bound to do the bidding of their corporate backers.
If either Obama or Romney had the wit or will to attempt a change of this culture one way or another they would be sidelined."
Seems pretty right to me, however, there is quite a lot of substantial non MIC industry & brilliant innovation/technology in USA…
Read moreAndrew Hack
IT Project Manager
I wonder if any contributors of theconversation are going to be posting anything criticizing the election results.
I agree largely with Denis; the proof is in the way the RNC treated Ron Paul. At the end of the day it matters little to the average person whether it is Obama or Romney. Their philosophy is not dissimilar; bigger government. They only differ on the degree and the areas of where to expand.
"The choice however, is inconsequential because whichever party gains the leadership they…
Read moreFirozali A.Mulla
PhD
11/9/12I am sure Obama did not expect this just when he gets the seat New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has ordered fuel rationing based on vehicle registration plates after the city was hit by its second severe storm in just over a week. Drivers will be allowed to buy petrol on alternating days based on whether their licence plate ends in odd or even numbers, Mr Bloomberg announced at a news conference. Licence plates ending in a letter are eligible to buy fuel on odd-numbered days, he said. The markets took heavy losses for a second day in a row Thursday in a broad-based retreat late in the session. Every major sector closed to the downside. I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA
Denis White
Retired
Thankyou to William and Bruce for your response, its pleasing to know that at least a few others are awake. The problem though remains, when will enough people see through the smokescreen to be able to force democratic change?
Firozali A.Mulla
PhD
09/11/2012Did we say we all have all when Obama takes the White House? NO. The U.S. economy is strengthening but leaders must tackle a looming "fiscal cliff," a top Federal Reserve official said on Thursday, adding that he doubted the central bank would extend a bond maturity extension program that expires at end-2012. "It is of critical importance that the president and Congress get together and get to a solution on this," St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told reporters. "This could cause tremendous damage to the U.S. economy if it is not addressed in an appropriate way. “The ball is in our coats "The key that the American people want from us right now is for us to tackle some big challenges that we face in a common-sense, balanced, sensible way," Obama said. The goal of such a deal would be to achieve $4 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years. I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA
Firozali A.Mulla
PhD
At the end of last week Britain surprised everyone—even the government, it seems—when it announced third-quarter GDP growth of 1 percent. It was Britain’s best quarterly performance in five years. This result followed the most rigorous austerity measures the British government has imposed since World War II, and it seemed to validate the neoliberal policies favoured by Prime Minister David Cameron and other conservatives. “These figures show we are on the right track,” declared George Osborne, Cameron’s chancellor of the exchequer. “This is another sign that the economy is healing and we have the right approach.” The bond and share markets in London seemed to agree, each taking a bounce upward after the economic results were announced. If you do not tell the truth about yourself you cannot tell it about other people. -Virginia Woolf, writer (1882-1941) I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA
Firozali A.Mulla
PhD
11/11/2012 Efven when you want to leave the FBI you have to have a very excuse. The F.B.I. investigation that led to the resignation of David H. Petraeus as C.I.A. director began with a complaint several months ago about “harassing” e-mails sent by Paula Broadwell, Mr Petraeus’s biographer, to an unidentified third person, a government official briefed on the case said Saturday. When F.B.I. agents following up on the complaint began to examine Ms Broadwell’s e-mails, they discovered exchanges between…
Read moreFirozali A.Mulla
PhD
11/12/12this is exactly what the death of economics is Many a times we forget that we are in this all together Premier Mario Monti has vowed to ensure that a handful of countries don't succeed in blocking 670 million ($850.5 million) inEuropean Union funds for Italy's Emilia Romagna region that was hit by back-to-back earthquakes this year. Monti's office said in a statement late Sunday that the maneuvering is "completely unacceptable" and represents a grave breach of the EU's principles of solidarity. Twenty-four people died in two temblors that struck the productive agricultural and industrial region in May. Italian news reports have said Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, Britain and Sweden were holding up the funds in negotiations over the EU budget. Monti spoke this weekend with the European Parliament president as well as the European Commission president. The statement said both assured Monti they would work to free up the funds. I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA
Firozali A.Mulla
PhD
Finance ministers from the 17-euro countries are expected to debate Greece's economic reforms Monday evening at a meeting in Brussels. Greece, which hopes for a new (euro) 31.5 billion ($40 billion) bailout loan, faces a bond repayment on Friday it cannot afford. The finance ministers were due to receive a report on Greece by the troika of international lenders- the International, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission. But Germany's finance minister has said the report would likely…
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