Last week I attended the 24th Annual Conference of the Chinese Economics Society of Australia (CESA), a network of mostly Australian academics with research expertise in the Chinese economy.
At this conference I was struck by the difference between what most of those present thought were the key issues relating to China’s economy, and the topics that are most regularly discussed by the financial market economists and business commentators in the mainstream press.
For example, that week, the mainstream media had been preoccupied with real GDP growth in China slowing to its lowest level since the GFC and interest rate cuts.
But conference participants instead concentrated on the causes of China’s internal imbalances (high rates of savings and investment and low rates of consumption) and external imbalances (large current account surpluses), and the prospects of these being remedied in the medium and long run. (I’ll explain more about why both these things matter further down.)
Commentators tend to focus mainly on the short run cycle, ignoring institutions, history and culture; yet they could actually learn a lot from the academics at the CESA conference, who tended to emphasise these things.
One explanation for the disjoint could be that academic economists don’t have any money on the line that is vulnerable to a cyclical downturn, nor do they generally advise those who do.
I suspect, however, that there is a more fundamental reason – a lack of literacy amongst many public commentators regarding China’s economy.
Here’s a list of what I took from the conference that anyone with an interest in the Chinese economy ought to know.
1) The trend matters more than the cycle.
Like any country, China has quarters, and even years, when growth is less robust than in others. But what has led to China emerging as the world’s second largest economy, more people being lifted out of poverty than at any other time in history, and massive demand for Australia’s natural resources has been its trend (average) rate of growth.
Policies such as cutting interest rates do not impact on the trend rate of growth. Addressing structural imbalances does.
2) Institutions matter.
Focusing on interest rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China is readily understood in that it is familiar territory. Monetary policy is the primary stabilisation policy seen in Australia and adjusting interest rates is how the Reserve Bank of Australia implements monetary policy. However, in China it is a supplementary policy tool at best. This is because the main borrowers in China’s banking system are state-owned enterprises and their borrowing decisions are influenced more by government directives and the availability of credit rather than its price. Those who are sensitive to price adjustments, such as non-state sector firms and households, largely do their borrowing outside the formal banking system.
3) History matters.
A paper at the conference discussed the importance of “industrial clusters” to China’s economic success. Clustering refers to many firms producing the same good locating in a single geographical area. Clusters can be seen throughout China. In many cases, the reason why a particular locality plays host to a given industry can be traced back to a decision by a local government official or a foreign investor several decades ago. Without knowing the history, it would be impossible to explain the cluster’s emergence and subsequent success.
4) Culture matters.
One of the most common explanations of China’s high savings rate is the lack of a comprehensive social security system. However, another paper at the conference added to what is now a convincing body of evidence that pinpoints the Chinese cultural preference for having a son as being just as important, if not more so.
Combined with the One Child Policy introduced in the late 1970s, this cultural preference has resulted in a grossly distorted gender imbalance at birth. An implication is that competition in the marriage market has become intense and unless a young man (or his parents) has sufficient savings to buy a house, his chances of attracting a bride are greatly reduced. Such an explanation might sound far-fetched to the average Australian, but not to anyone familiar with the contemporary Chinese cultural context.
The fact that many commentators appear not to fully comprehend the importance of institutions, history and culture in determining economic outcomes is really not surprising. These elements have little place in the neoclassical economic theories that dominate the economics courses that are taught in our universities.
The plight of Asian languages in our universities has been widely discussed. Literacy with respect to China’s economy is perhaps even worse.
As far as I am aware, only two universities in Australia offer a dedicated course on the Chinese economy: the ANU at the postgraduate level and UQ at the undergraduate level. This is a shocking gap given the place that China now occupies in our macroeconomic dialogue.
Dale Bloom
Analyst
According to this report, take out the US, and China would actually be running a significant trade deficit with the rest of the world.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303292204577516673966206002.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Walmart sells 5 times more than its closest competitor, and about 80% of what Walmart sells is not produced in the US, but procured from countries such as China.
Take out the US (or more specifically, take out Walmart) and China would be running an international trade deficit, and the Chinese government would have very little money to spend on its own economy.
Its called globalisation, but the fortunes of Australia and its economic resources boom, probably depend more on Walmart than on China.
Lincoln Fung
Economist
While you obviously have a point about globalisation and about the retailing services by Walmart, you probably didn't mean the fortunes of Australia and its economic resources boom has noting to do with China's urbanisation and industrialisation, did you?
Dale Bloom
Analyst
No, China’s economic success as an exporter had more to do with Deng Xiaoping’s open investment policy, combined with Walmart and similar companies obtaining most of their stock from China, and then selling it in markets where people would pay high prices.
This enabled Walmart to become one of the biggest companies in the world, and its turnover is now bigger than the trade volume of many countries.
The urbanisation of China was often to create the “clusters” as mentioned in the article…
Read morePeter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
Interesting piece.
Curious isn't it what a "producer economy" looks like and how different it is to our "consumer " model? How what looks the same isn't... how what looks different works pretty much the same.
A truly strange creature - and well beyond the simplistic slide-rule approaches of our typical gweilo analysis. But the cat still catches mice.
Peter Davies
Bio-refinery technology developer
The Chinese cat doesn't just catch mice, it encourages conditions for their breeding. This is a fundamental difference between our own "hunter gather economics" and their more planned ones.
Over here when a policy is implemented it too often discounts or ignores individual consumers response, then expresses surprise when the outcome is different to the intent and finally blames "unpredictable" human factors only obvious to observers in "hindsight".
"Who knew?" becomes the collective excuse, when in fact they seem to be the only ones who didn't.
As the article suggests there is much more depth and sophistication to this "cat" than gets commonly reported by commentators here, and we would do well to study it, if only to understand where the next outbreak of mice might be...
Carol Daly
Director
Thanks for writing the piece that needs to be written about the orientation of our media and commentators. And our financial gurus and advisors.
Your points are important because Australia and our future is linked to China and Asia, yet all the commentary is Wall St and London 'cut and paste'. No wonder Australians think we are in a recession similar to the US and UK, when we are have an economy the envy of the developed world.
Likewise with news and Chinese language, culture and history…
Read moreLincoln Fung
Economist
While all the factors that James mentioned matters, also important is the way people's expectations changes over time that influence both culture and history.
Read moreI am surprised that it wasn't mentioned that adaptive expectations could also explain many of what has been the imbalance issues with the Chinese economy.
When a developing economy changes very rapidly with considerable uncertainties, many consumers, particularly historically poor ones that are the cases with developing economies, are adaptive…
Tony Xiao
retired teacher
Just about spot on with high savings and culture but high savings are
also due to a combination of high home ownership (nearly 90 percent), Chinese frugality, and undeclared household income.
However, in regards to the son and culture:
1. it's a sons duty to care for the parents in their old age.
Read more2. its a parents duty to ensure the sons are educated in a way to
secure the best job possible to be able to financially take on their
parents later on.
3. it's the parents duty to provide…
Ken Swanson
Geologist
James
Excellent article.
Godfree Roberts
Ceo
Excellent piece. For more about perspective, and an examination of China's radically different approach to 'the economy', see this excellent piece by some professional Australian investors: http://inpraiseofchina.blogspot.com/2012/07/chinas-economic-miracle-how-it-works.html
Gil Hardwick
Anthropologist
My wife is Chinese and my two sons plainly mixed race, while raised in Australia both encouraged from early childhood to embrace both cultures and to maintain their close relationship with China.
But what does that mean? While many Asians argue that Australians must learn to start discussing Asia in terms of what we have in common rather than what's different, to which I do agree, it remains that there is no such thing as 'China' in any real sense, nor is there any such thing as 'India' for that…
Read more