Given the failure of British polls to predict the outcome of Brexit, is it possible Donald Trump could produce a surprise result of even greater proportions?
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has not dropped below 80 percent since March 2014. Russians overwhelmingly support their president’s aggression in Georgia and Crimea. Here’s why.
Whether it’s Hillary Clinton’s courting the UFO vote or Donald Trump’s lending credibility to various conspiracy theories, the “triumph of reason” seems to have gone by the wayside.
Natalie Mast speaks with 'Poll Bludger' William Bowe in the final week of the election campaign to break down how the major parties have faired and which seats could decide the election.
Greens leader Richard Di Natale told Q&A that if there was a vote among people who are under 30 in Australia, there’d possibly be a Greens prime minister. What do the polls say?
Natalie Mast speaks with 'Poll Bludger' William Bowe about how the election campaign has gone so far and what the Senate might look like as a result of changes to the voting method.
When considering US elections it pays to “follow the money” – and not just the campaign donations. Head to the bookies, not the polls, to see who’s really in with a shout.
As Jeb Bush, the 11th declared Republican candidate enters the race for president, a look back at a secretive survey in 1935 that foreshadowed today’s ubiquitous horserace polls.
While pre-election polls got their sums wrong, and seemed to ignore biases in the rush to publish, a far more accurate call was being made in the betting shops of Britain.
Britain’s first-past-the-post system is often defended on the grounds that it enables voters to choose between alternative governments. Two qualities supposedly give it this character. First, it gives…
Foundation essay: This article is part of a series marking the launch of The Conversation in the US. Our foundation essays are longer than our usual comment and analysis articles and take a wider look…
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield