Once again Australia finds itself at the crest of a minerals demand bubble. Like the nickel boom of the late sixties and the "rush that never ended" this one also will end; hopefully without too precipitous a plunge. The hype surrounding the boom has seen "estimates" of twenty years and more and the Deloitte Access Economics report released today throws some reality back. Firstly, labour shortages refer only to the construction phase and these workers are construction workers of the normal type who can construct structures of any nature, mining or otherwise. Once the mines get started there is little demand for extra labour, since it is extracted with extreme HP-to-man ratio machines and the productivity per man hour is outrageously high compared to other industries. Secondly this report seems to overlook the subcontinent which is a traditional and historical rival of China and will exert some influence on demand as it competes with China in response to Chinese progress.

Regardless of when the boom turns to bust, there is little effort being placed on putting away some of the wealth as a hedge against the economic effects of this inevitable bust. Whenever the topic comes up our elected representatives drag up the Australia fund and parade it as a sovereign wealth fund. This fund was set up by Peter Costello when he realised that the budget could not cover the retirement liabilities of retiring public servants, specifically to cover these future liabilities. In no possible way can it be construed as a sovereign wealth fund. It is having difficulty even covering these liabilities.

The resource rent tax has been tossed around since the seventies and can actually produce this result but the government of the day was bullied into submission by the mining lobby and reduced it to a skeleton. At least there is now a framework which can be used to expand the tax to an appropriate level in the future.

When Chinese demand for coal peaks and then starts to diminish, will cancellation of supply contracts commence with Chinese-owned mining operators, or with non-Chinese operators?

Perhaps what we should be focused on is what we, as a society and as an industry will do with the tens of thousands of workers that may be left without a job if there is a major contraction within the sector.
It has been noticeable that there has been a significant decline in further study from those who are quite comfortable earning excessive money for what is a essentially minimal skilled labour. I certainly appreciate the efforts and skills required by mine workers but if there is major job cuts what industry will have the capacity to provide the same workers with conditions and wages that have become the norm in the sector?
We have to start educating employees that the gravy train will not keep rolling indefinitely and encourage a proactive approach to life after the boom. Employers can also take an approach where they actively promote and perhaps provide career counselling as part of a social innovation program. I don't feel the rest of the economy is prepared for the inevitable influx of former mining sector workers and the subsequent wage demands that may accompany them. For once we can actually determine a succession plan and be prepared for when the mining industry experiences the decline it will certainly have.

Big Mining (the foreign-dominated mining industry) is campaigning for measures to increase their exploitation, of people, government, society, environment, air, water, and their workers.

Labor's Enterprise Migration Agreements (introduced in the 2011 Budget) are similarly designed to cut wages and discourage good training. Resources and Energy Minister Ferguson emphasised that the aim is to keep wages below what they would have been (if not actually cut them). Obviously with such an implicitly easy access to sufficiently trained workers, local training must be less attractive.

Gina Rinehart has succeeded in using the "skill shortage" furphy to arrange the mass importation of coolie sweatshop labour for her $9.5 billion Roy Hill iron ore project in the Pilbara. They'll no doubt be brought in by some shady, fly-by-night body hire crowd that will snatch their passports and deduct large placement fees from their earnings (they may possibly even be paid the correct wage, but they certainly won't be allowed to keep it). They'll be "employed temporarily in the resources sector", "temporarily" being at least three years. We've been fobbed off with the usual worthless promises - "receive the same wages and conditions", "a Jobs Board" so that foreigners were recruited "only if locals were unavailable" (it'll make sure they're unavailable), and maybe "training" for 200 local and indigenous workers.

As ETU assistant national secretary Allen Hicks said (in addition to calling on Ms Gillard to sack Mr Bowen), "We haven't seen any labour market analysis that Gina Rinehart and her company's done, [nor] … any advertisements for positions."

Let me tell you how the scam will work. As is very common with sweatshop labour import rackets worldwide, the applicant will have to accept a debt of a large placement fee, to be deducted from wages paid (same as with unskilled Asian workers placed to Israel). G (the Australian-located miner) will have fully-owned recruitment companies overseas for that purpose. Australian-level wages paid will go into the worker's foreign bank account, with G's subsidiary taking at least 50%. If that deducted money never comes back to Australia, G won't be breaking any Australian IR laws.

No disclosure will be made of the exact number of foreigners to be hired for specific jobs, while "audits' will be six-monthly so as to minimise the impact of discovering non-compliance.

On the 20th of June, it listed 212 jobs, only one for Roy Hill. Today, it listed 110 jobs, none for Roy Hill. Yes, the boom must be busting.

We need to say NO to these projects. While the truth may be zero, we've been threatened that another 10-30 EMAs may be coming. Our problem is that politicians are besotted and obsessed with ever more cranes on the skyline, just like Spain before the utter collapse of its building bubble.