The revenge of the 47%

This was Mitt Romney’s last best chance to be president of the United States of America. Romney had a relatively easy primary contest. All the other Republican candidates shot themselves in the foot by either being philanders, dullards or unhinged partisans. Although the conservative base of the GOP…

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Mitt Romney had everything in his favour heading into the election, but still managed to lose. EPA/Matt Campbell

This was Mitt Romney’s last best chance to be president of the United States of America.

Romney had a relatively easy primary contest. All the other Republican candidates shot themselves in the foot by either being philanders, dullards or unhinged partisans. Although the conservative base of the GOP desperately wanted someone – anyone – besides Romney, he was the last candidate standing.

Then, in the general election, Romney had most things working in his favour. Key structural features were all working with him. Since 2007, the US economy has only grown 1.75%. Unemployment remains stubbornly high at 7.9%. It has been repeated innumerable times this election that, since the Great Depression, no US president has been re-elected with unemployment this high. American servicemen are still regularly being killed in Afghanistan and the “fiscal cliff” is looming. Not surprisingly, all the polling from the major news agencies report that most Americans believe that the country is on the wrong track.

How could he have possibly lost?

Apologists for Romney will say that this presidential election’s “October Surprise” was Hurricane Sandy, which favoured the incumbent. They will say that Romney was closing on President Barack Obama before the hurricane caused the campaign it shutdown for a crucial 48 hours. Romney’s friends, such as New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, did not help matters by heaping praise on the president’s response to the freak storm.

This version of history is extremely favourable to Romney. The truth is that he was behind before the hurricane and remained behind afterwards.

Romney lost because he was a weak candidate. In a stronger field, he probably would not have made it out of the Republican primaries. Romney ran on three pillars: as an experienced businessman; as the former governor of Massachusetts; and as a conservative family man. It could be argued that each of these was a greater weakness than strength.

Romney’s business experience was supposed to be his greatest asset. However, his time at Bain Capital also made him an easy political target. For sure, he was responsible for hiring people, but he was also responsible for firing people. The people he tended to hire were finance people. The people his company laid off tended to be lower skilled workers. These workers are the exact people he needed to convince to vote for him.

Indeed, with unemployment at 7.9%, many Americans recognise Romney as the boss who recently fired them. It was also easy for Romney’s political opponents to associate Romney’s business experience with the worse excesses of Wall Street and outsourcing of jobs to China. As such, the businessman theme failed to achieve as much traction as campaign strategists probably would have wished.

Romney also drew heavily upon his experience as Governor of Massachusetts, particularly during the presidential debates. This is understandable as it was his only real political experience. Once again, however, this experience worked against as much as for him.

When Romney entered the governorship, he balanced the budget by increasing taxes and decreasing expenditure. When running for the presidency, he said he would never raise taxes to balance the books. He also introduced a comprehensive health care program, which is very similar to “Obamacare” he later riled against in the presidential campaign. He assumed relatively progressive social positions on gay rights and abortion, but later called himself a “severe conservative” in the Republicans primaries.

Republican supporters are left disappointed with another four years out of the White House. EPA/Michael Ivins

Politicians regularly shift their positions. Few have attempted it to such an extent as Mitt Romney – from the relatively progressive positions of his governorship, to the conservative positions of the primaries to the middle for the general election.

Finally, Romney ran heavily as a stable, conservative family man. Yet, this picture also reminded many Americans that Romney is a Mormon. There remains a great deal of prejudice against Mormons in the United States. Many evangelicals disbelieve that they are even true Christians. Many of the left also hold negative views of Mormonism after the church played a prominent role striking down marriage equality acts across the country, including overturning laws in California. Politically, Romney’s religion worked against him on both his right and left flanks.

What next for Romney?

There has been speculation that Romney may run again in 2016. This narrative follows that he has gotten so close that he can almost taste the White House. There is no precedent for this. Dole didn’t run in 2000. Gore didn’t run in 2004. Kerry didn’t run in 2008. McCain didn’t run this time.

While holding this in mind, it is too early to write Mitt Romney’s political obituary. I don’t think we have seen the last of him.

Join the conversation

23 Comments sorted by

  1. Michael Shand

    Michael Shand is a Friend of The Conversation.

    Software Tester

    Good Article, good analysis, jst wanted to say - its alright to call him a liar where he lied

    You wrote about him changing his position....evolving in thought is one thing, directly contradicting yourself is different.

    Its not that people mind a politician changing their position its that articles like this get written where they dont differentiate between a change in a position and a lie. - Hence the public get the view that changing positions is bad - which its not and no one ever gets called a liar.

    Please can you writers stop beating around the bush on these basic issues, its not helping anyone

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    1. Ken Swanson

      Geologist

      In reply to Michael Shand

      That would be like Julia Gillard lying about not introducing a carbon tax
      Barak Obama promising to close Guantanamo Bay
      Those kinds of lies Michael?
      I hope the Conversation and its bloggers pick up on your suggestion in the lead up to the next Australian election and stop calling any criticism of the known liar Gillard as sexist or misogynistic.

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    2. Gordon Royle

      Professor of Mathematics at University of Western Australia

      In reply to Ken Swanson

      I keep trying to tell my 6 and 9 year old children that a lie is a statement made with the deliberate intention to deceive, not just a statement made in good faith that subsequently fails to materialise.

      Obama promised to close GB, which is something not entirely under his control, but has not succeeded in doing so.

      Gillard promised no carbon tax, which is something entirely under her control, immediately reversed her position, and when it passed, she presided over wild celebration and cheering in Parliament even including a kiss on the cheek from KRudd.

      I haven't heard whether Obama is openly gleeful about failing to close GB, but if not, then I wouldn't classify it as a deliberate attempt to deceive.

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    3. Paul Whyte

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Gordon Royle

      The lie claim for Gilard works on those who want it to work. Her political opponents.

      If you read the full statement she made at the time, it included that she wanted an ETS. It was clear that Labor wanted an ETS and the hung parliment ment the Greens forced a carbon tax for the first 3 years which then goes to an ETS.

      So quite clearly Gillard was not lieing, she was a politition who had to compromise to take power.

      The whole grid lock in the US congress is due to rigid ideological possitions…

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    4. Michael Shand

      Michael Shand is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Software Tester

      In reply to Ken Swanson

      There is a difference between changing your position on an issue and lying.

      Stating that it will be your number one priority to over turn Row v Wade and then stating a few weeks later that you have no policy relating to abortion at all is called lying - this is jst one example

      Not being able to deliver on election promises is different, dont confuse the two

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    5. Alice Kelly

      sole parent

      In reply to Ken Swanson

      These websites all seem to propagate resident of "the kens of the world", all toting the same Rigid Ideological Positions which perfectly reflect why Mitt and co lost. Conservative White Male, still believing blacks, hispanics, and women, all constitute a minority demographic. And they all share a sense of intellectual entitlement, probably not needed to the degree believed by themselves.

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    6. Ken Swanson

      Geologist

      In reply to Michael Shand

      Michael
      That would be like claiming that the US ambassador was killed as a result of a spontaneous protest and then change your mind when the intelligence community revealed the lie.
      That sort of lie perhaps?
      No, it could not be. Obama is without fault. He walks on water. He will save the world etc etc etc......
      We are so blindly loyal he can do no wrong.

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    7. Ken Swanson

      Geologist

      In reply to Paul Whyte

      She stole the election by lying though
      You may well be happy with the outcome, but if you condone her behaviour as somehow having some moral basis you cannot complain when Abbott gets in an repeals not just the carbon tax but also the workplace relations laws having said at the election that he will not do so.
      Think how outraged you would be.

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    8. Alice Kelly

      sole parent

      In reply to Ken Swanson

      Planet Reconstructed, "Ken Doll", now outside to smell my beautiful roses...

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    9. Alan John Hunter

      Retired

      In reply to Ken Swanson

      Stole what?.
      If she hadn't made that ridculous statement, she would have won, she pissed off solid Labor supporters who then switched to the Greens.
      She stole nothing, she lost it.
      She did however promise a price on carbon.
      Tony Blabalot did however propose "a simple tax on carbon".
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckcH0Wrmy74
      So who is the liar?.
      Methinks you have confused the horse, the cart and the direction.
      If Blabalot wasn't so odious he might have done a deal with the independants, but he is so putrid they couldn't hack it.

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  2. Dennis Alexander

    logged in via LinkedIn

    yes a good article. I think the Mormon thing was under-rated: the margins in some of the swing states are very close and a few more evangelicals might have won the ballot. Interestingly, see also http://election.princeton.edu/ for a prediction of around about this result before the election.

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    1. Ken Swanson

      Geologist

      In reply to Dennis Alexander

      I think the Mormon thing was an issue Dennis because the Democratic made it one and the MSM came in behind their talking points.
      However one thing I did learn as a result was that Harry Reid, the Democrat leader in the US Senate was also a Mormon. This has been a fact kept very quiet over the course of his political life. I wonder now, given his high profile whether the MSM will put the boots into him like they have done to Romney.
      Given their clear bias in favour of the Democrats in this election, I will not be holding my breath.

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    2. Leo Kerr

      Consultant

      In reply to Ken Swanson

      wonders if someone running for the presidency of the United States who believes his underpants are magical is a suitable candidate - sorry what century is this?

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    3. Ken Swanson

      Geologist

      In reply to Leo Kerr

      AS a Mormon, Harry Reid probably has a pair too
      We will not hear about it from the MSM though
      That is the point

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  3. Neil Gibson

    Retired Electronics Engineer

    The stockmarket has already spoken. The US was still probably going downhill even if Romney won as it is too far down the track. The US is in a terrible financial position and Obama will make it worse. The US will eventually have external auditors the same as Greece.

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    1. Matthew Rowles

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Neil Gibson

      Hi Neil

      I think that if Romney had been elected, then the USA would be going down the path you predict Obama is taking it.

      Why do you believe that Romney is better than Obama?

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    2. Neil Gibson

      Retired Electronics Engineer

      In reply to Matthew Rowles

      Europe has many examples of countries spending more than they earn - Greece and Spain the worst. At some time the budget must be balanced . The US credit card is completely maxxed and they have been printing money
      to get by the election. I don't think that Obama understands how real jobs are created and that is by the private sector. Romney certainly understands this far better than Obama. That said I didn't agree with Romney's policy of continuing defence spending at the current or greater level' The US to survive must live within their means and defence should bear the pain as well. I hope Obama does well as it is important for the whole world but I am pessimistic. Feel-good policies do not balance the books and the US needs a burgeoning private sector creating jobs - not a growing public sector absorbing resources and killing jobs.

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    3. Glenn Tamblyn

      Mechanical Engineer, Director

      In reply to Neil Gibson

      Neil

      I think it's a bit more complex than this and that Obama probably does understand; he's a smart guy with some smart people around him. His problem is that the American people have foisted a Congress on him with alotofpeople who have replaced smart with ideological. Business is the generator of jobs. Both from needing more staff when turn-over is rising and from investment in new plant and equipment and new ventures when the economy is growing.

      Both types of job creation happen when the…

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  4. Peter Ormonde

    Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

    Farmer

    Nah ... you're all wrong apparently. Romney lost because he wasn't rabid enough.

    I've spent a bit of the morning reading the seriously unhinged analysis of the Tea Party Patriots. It's a hoot.

    They knew - always knew - that Romney was a loser - a scion of the country club and ruling elite.

    The obvious answer is someone from a lower class background with a far more extreme policy viewpoint. An outsider, a fist from below who is tougher on welfare, minorities and has a strict moral…

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  5. Neil Gibson

    Retired Electronics Engineer

    In the simplest terms a president that has borrowed 3 billion dollars per day over his 4 year term should not have been re-elected on his record.It is totally unsustainable.

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