Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison will deliver the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook next week.
Lukas Coch/AAP
The US Fed meets expectations for a rate cut, Australia’s unemployment rate heads upwards again, and all eyes look to the mid year budget update.
Any cyclical upturn in residential construction looks to have come to an end.
Mike Tsikas/AAP
US GDP data points to a US rate rise in December, and Australia’s housing affordability problem won’t be helped by current declining building approvals.
Not enough cranes?
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Construction slumps to its lowest level since 2010, and the US Fed remains divided on its next interest rate hike.
The ASX200 closed down 2% on the day of the US election.
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Global markets are spooked - and with good reason.
Reading between the lines of RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s latest comments it’s clear he has confidence in Australia’s banks.
Dean Lewins/AAP
The Australian economy continues to show some positive signs, but there are pockets of weakness and cause for concern every month.
Incoming RBA Governor Philip Lowe appeared before the House Standing Committee on Economics this week.
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The odds are the Fed will raise rates once and the RBA will cut once before the end of the year.
Employment growth remains flat, despite hopes for improvement.
Daniel Oines/Flickr
The Australian economy continues to deliver mixed, but on the whole positive, signals.
GDP numbers in Australia look good, but when one looks one level below, the picture isn’t so good.
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The RBA leaves rates on hold, Australia gets a GDP growth spurt from pre-election spending, and the IMF lays the groundwork for a lowering of global growth expectations.
Guy Debelle is preparing to become Deputy Governor of the RBA.
Lukas Coch/AAP
All in all this was a fairly positive week for global economies.
When attendees at the annual Jackson Hole symposium get a chance to chat, they might muse about central banks targeting nominal GDP instead of inflation.
Reuters/Jonathan Crosby
Central banks around the world are struggling with the failure of low (or negative) interest rates to breathe life back into ailing economies.
banks.
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Lower interest rates will only have the stimulatory effect required if they are passed on to borrowers.
With Australia cutting and the US raising rates the Australian dollar looks likely to fall.
David Gray/Reuters
All economic data is pointing to disappointing global growth.
Money is cheap right now, so where are the returns?
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Australia needs to change its national accounting system to be more like the private sector.
Australia is one of a small number of countries that enjoy a AAA rating.
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Ratings agency S&P seems unconvinced of the Australian government’s ability to reduce the budget deficit.
US Fed Chair Janet Yellen is worried about the slowdown in job creation.
Charles Mostoller/Reuters
Vital Signs is a weekly economic wrap from UNSW economics professor and Harvard PhD Richard Holden (@profholden). Vital Signs aims to contextualise weekly economic events and cut through the noise of the…
Sorry, but the glass is half empty.
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GDP growth that doesn’t translate into income is no cause for celebration.
Manufacturing makes for good photo ops, but spending by Australian companies is no cause for celebration.
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Worse than expected business investment in both manufacturing and mining provides another nod towards secular stagnation.
Business Council of Australia President Catherine Livingstone and Commonwealth Bank CEO Ian Narev will have to wait for the company tax cut they’ve been asking for.
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We are all still learning the rules of the “secularly stagnant” global economy.
rates.
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Watch out on budget day for how creative Treasury assumptions are on inflation.
Exasperated?
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RBA Governor Glenn Stevens isn’t buying the secular stagnation theory, lending weight to the deficit hawks.