As uncertain as 2019-20 is, The Conversation’s team of 20 leading economists are in broad agreement that the outlook isn’t good. Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will also have to deal with the unexpected.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
The Conversation's distinguished panel predicts unusually weak growth, dismal spending, no improvement in either unemployment or wage growth, and an increased chance of recession.
There’s other obvious reason for the jump.
Monday's share market surge was a pure as any a test of what the market thought.
Getting shadow equity might get us better paid.
What if we were part-paid in something that was like shares in the firm we worked for, except better. It might give us better pay rises.
National Australia Bank was the only bank singled out for direct criticism on Monday, yet its share price jumped 4%.
Bank shares soared 4% to 7% after the royal commission report. That could be because it will do them little harm.
Things will continue to look good enough for long enough to help the government fight the election. Beyond that, the Conversation Economic Panel is worried.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
The Conversation has assembled a forecasting team of 19 academic economists from 12 universities across six states. Together, they assign a 25% probability to a recession within two years.
Prolonged periods of low volatility provide ample opportunity for investors to become complacent about risk, and increase the prospect of sharp market corrections.
Volatility indexes show that investors have been complacent about the risk of a share market correction.
Markets have risen in response to President-elect Trump, particularly in the pharmaceutical and financial industries.
World markets bounced back surprisingly quickly after Trump's election. Here are a few theories as to why.
Employees of a Japanese foreign exchange company keep a close eye on the progress of the presidential election.
Some might say that financial markets over-reacted to the Brexit vote and the market reaction to the US election is the same. But Brexit won't happen till 2019, a Trump victory has already happened.
Gold: not the safe haven it was once considered to be.
The best answer for dealing with a volatile market is to do nothing.
The only sure thing for 2016 is volatility.
January returns are not a magic bullet that can be used to forecast stock market performance.
Heavy discounting by retailer Dick Smith was not enough to turn the company’s fortunes around.
As creditors consider the fallout from the demise of Dick Smith, the private equity firm that floated it has already counted its profits.
It may take a magic wand from the RBA (or the Turnbull government) for Australia to escape a recession.
Volatility is not going away any time soon, and if the US Fed decision plays the wrong way on the Australian dollar, our central bank could soon be back in the jawboning business.
Many people simply didn’t see China’s correction coming.
Rolex Dela Pena/AAP
Fears of a currency war have not come to fruition in Asia, making Asia's current market woes look even more like the effects of contagion.
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