Articles on Interest rates

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Making things black and white at The Bank of England. Mark Cornelius/Bank of England

ECB drama highlights the central bank transparency dilemma

When the European Central Bank sent markets reeling yesterday with moves designed to stimulate growth, the 24 people who made that decision could remain comfortable that their exact arguments and misgivings…
Consumer sentiment has fallen since the federal budget while other indicators suggest the economy is in limbo. AAP/Dan Himbrechts

Rates should hold until post-budget malaise clears

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
The economy will react slowly to last night’s budget. AAP/Lukas Coch

How will the economy react to the budget?

The Abbott-Hockey government is continuing to budget for a deficit. This means it is pumping more spending into the economy than it is taking out. The amount of this stimulus is being reduced; the size…
Business has agitated for change, but is now wary of the negative impact of a tough budget.

The state of Australia: business

In the lead up to the budget, the story of crisis has been hammered home, but there’s more to a country than its structural deficit. So how is Australia doing overall? In this special series, ten writers…
All banking comes with risk, but it could be better disclosed. Shutterstock

Why your bank account should come with a risk rating

What is the interest rate on your savings account? If you don’t know, you can easily find out. Banks advertise their rates prominently. They want you to know what they’re offering. After all, the interest…
Australia’s economy is showing promising signs, with global events the main source of concern. AAP

Promise on the horizon for Australian economy

The Australian economy appears to be benefiting from the current expansionary stance in monetary policy, despite uncertainties in the global economy. The CAMA Shadow Board is 71% confident that the cash…
Rising unemployment is likely to be a factor in future interest rate movements. AAP Image/Joe Castro

Spectre of rising unemployment to weigh on rates decision

The key question for interest rates this month is whether improving domestic demand will curb the increasing rate of unemployment and underemployment, or whether labour market weakness will persist. The…
Australia’s economic position remains uncertain, which may prompt the Reserve Bank to hold interest rates. AAP

Waiting game on economy means RBA should hold

Without a clear direction of where the Australian economy is heading, the consensus to keep the cash rate at its current level of 2.5% remains strong. Uncertainties surrounding the domestic and foreign…
Floating the Australian dollar helped us flourish - but was no panacea to all economic ills. Image sourced from

The float Australia had to have?

The Australian dollar was floated this day in 1983. By 1985, it seemed to take on water, list badly, and sink. And that actually was the idea. The real exchange rate – roughly, the dollar rate, adjusted…
“It is surprising that the RBA is hosing down talk of a housing bubble when experience of the early 2000s suggests that the RBA can be wise to jawbone down the housing market.” AAP/Lukas Koch

Interest rates: all eyes on the housing market

With uncertainty surrounding the recent federal election subsiding and positive economic news from abroad, several Shadow Board members worry that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s loose monetary stance…
Buying power doesn’t always stack up as the best measurement for who we are and how far we’ve come. Shutterstock/ MaleWitch

More pie in the sky - economic progress no slice of life

In the verbal volley between Gillard and Abbott, Swan and Hockey, there is a conversation that we are not hearing. It bubbles below the consciousness of mainstream Australia, a conversation that is old…
Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens said today that the bank’s board judged that a further decline in the cash rate was appropriate to encourage sustainable growth in the economy. AAP/Alan Porritt

RBA cuts interest rates to 2.75%: the experts respond

The Reserve Bank of Australia today cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 2.75%, but some experts have…
Down? Stay as it is? Commentators are divided about the direction of the cash rate. Image sourced from

Stay the course with interest rates: shadow board

The Reserve Bank of Australia should leave interest rates unchanged this month according to the consensus of Shadow Reserve Board members. Amid market uncertainty over whether the RBA board may choose…
Despite continuing unrest in Europe - particularly Cyprus - the global economy has firmed, say Shadow Reserve Bank commentators.

RBA: rates should hold, with a gradual return to neutral

The consensus of the nine members of the Shadow Board is that the Reserve Bank of Australia should leave interest rates unchanged from March at 3.00%. But the balance of risks implies rates should rise…
A number of Shadow Bank commentators point to a slight uplift in the housing market as a sign that interest rates should rise in the medium term.

Interest rates should stay on hold, for now

No change remains the consensus of the nine members of the Shadow Board in the Reserve Bank of Australia holding interest rates unchanged from February at 3.00%. But rates need to rise significantly within…

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