While Māori have seen a steady increase in representation in parliament since the beginning of MMP, other ethnic minorities have experienced uneven growth. The new parliament will see a step back.
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The final outcome of the general election may not be known for two weeks. But one thing is clear: the country has resoundingly rejected the government that led it through the pandemic.
With final results awaiting the inclusion of special votes, the shape of New Zealand’s next parliament hangs in the balance. Here are the variables in play.
New Zealand has swung decisively back to the right at the 2023 general election. With official results pending, it seems National and ACT can still form a government without the help of NZ First.
With two days of the campaign left, what had earlier seemed like a relatively predictable election has narrowed considerably, with several variables potentially influencing the outcome.
The final days of the campaign have seen both major parties warn of instability if the other wins. But behind the jockeying for power, other forces are shaping the future of New Zealand politics.
The latest political opinion polls confirm the rightward trend since mid-year. But with NZ First on the rise, the shape of the next government remains unpredictable.
New Zealand’s Greens have undoubtedly succeeded in some policy areas, including climate and housing quality. But the party continues to battle internal tensions between idealism and pragmatism.
New Zealand’s proportional electoral system makes coalition governments all but inevitable. Ahead of the October 14 election, the jockeying for power is all on the right.
The Conversation’s poll-watcher breaks down the party support trend since March – which has all been surging one way, despite some variation between pollsters.
Despite the claims of landlords and politicians, there is no economic consensus against rent controls. A more nuanced debate would help, given the scale of New Zealand’s housing affordability problem.
A referendum on changing New Zealand’s parliamentary term to four years would be the third such exercise in under 60 years. Why would the outcome be any different this time?
One year on, the NZ Election Survey crunches the numbers on what drove Jacinda Ardern’s unprecedented 2020 victory.
Half of Jacinda Ardern’s ten most senior ministers are now women, lifting NZ’s global gender ranking from 50th to 26th.
The new cabinet may be diverse and inclusive, but Labour also has unprecedented executive and legislative control.
If the pattern on election night holds, 2020 will be the most dramatic election in 100 years in terms of votes shifting between major parties.
The people have spoken, and MMP has delivered the right result — even if it means Labour governs alone.
Jacinda Ardern and Labour are returned to power in a landslide, making New Zealand political history in the process.
With more votes cast before election day than on it, late strategic voting could make all the difference.
COVID-19 has all but wiped foreign policy from the election debate, but a world still in crisis awaits the winner of the general election.
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Top contributors
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Professor of Politics, Massey University
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Professor of Communication Design, Massey University
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Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Canterbury
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Postdoctoral fellow, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
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Research Associate, Public Policy Institute, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Associate Professor in Human Geography, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
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Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Waikato
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PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury
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Visiting Scholar in Politics, City, University of London
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Professor of Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury
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Professor of Law, University of Waikato
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Professor of Politics, University of Canterbury
