The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has expressed frustration at the Hamas response to the latest proposed ceasefire deal with Israel. He said that after nearly two weeks of procrastinating, instead of coming back with the word “yes”, Hamas has insisted on a series of changes – some fundamental.
This is in stark contrast to the upbeat assessment of Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who said: “We are witnessing a shift in this conflict in the recent period, and there is a clear and firm call to end this war.” Al Thani’s optimism seemed to be an insider’s view given that Qatar, along with Egypt, has been sponsoring the ceasefire talks.
What this tells us perhaps is that Hamas is also negotiating with itself, due to its divided leadership of Ismail Haniyeh in Qatar and Yahya Sinwar in Gaza. And this makes these complex talks all the more unpredictable.
The recent publication by the Wall Street Journal of Sinwar’s messages to Haniyeh revealed fundamental differences both on the course of the war and their political strategies. At the same time, the resignation of the centrist Benny Gantz from Israel’s war cabinet means that Israel faces a new political reality.
Gantz’s resignation had been delayed a day and was largely overshadowed by the dramatic rescue of four hostages by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on June 8. The rescue – which involved a military exercise that left between 210 and 274 Palestinians dead and 698 wounded, according to the Gaza Health Ministry – gave Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a rare military achievement to boast about to his domestic audience, in what has been a dismal few months as he has watched his poll ratings plummet.
Both Netanyahu and his minister of defense, Yoav Gallant, have spoken of the operation in terms of historical significance, comparing it with the rescue of hijacked Israelis at Entebbe in 1976. This is highly significant as Netanyahu’s brother Yonatan was killed while leading that mission.
To hear the hostage rescue painted in those terms indicates that Netanyahu feels more confident than he has at any time since October 7. The success makes him stronger against his far-right government partners, and gives him a new authority as his cabinet debates the ceasefire plan.
The plan itself, which has now been extensively aired on Israel’s Channel 12 TV station, contains 18 clauses and provides for three phases, beginning with a six-week ceasefire and leading to a permanent cessation of hostilities.
In the first two phases, all living Israeli hostages will be released, while dead hostages will be returned in the third phase. Over the same period, a significant number of Palestinian prisoners in Israel’s jails will be released.
Provision is also made for Palestinians civilians displaced in Gaza to return home, and for the IDF to withdraw from the “populated areas” of Gaza. The third phase will also involve plans to rebuild the shattered Gaza strip. Significantly, an international gathering in Jordan this week has already begin to address this issue.
Hamas divided
The Hamas counter-proposals want to change both the three-phase structure of the plan and many of the details. For example, Hamas is demanding that Israel begins withdrawing its forces from Gaza in the first week of a ceasefire. In a particularly vicious proposal on hostage release, it gives no priority to the living over the dead, while also insisting on the release of dozens of Palestinian prisoners for each hostage.
Hamas is asking for guarantees from several countries, including Russia, China and Turkey, that its revised plan will be implemented. Having been under great pressure from Qatar and Egypt to agree to the plan, Hamas has evidently decided to try to turn the tables and put pressure on Israel.
The new Hamas demands also indicate that Sinwar has the upper hand at the moment over the more politically sophisticated Haniyeh. As the Wall Street Journal revelations showed, Haniyeh and Sinwar are not always on the same page. Sinwar thinks he is having a good war, especially on the propaganda front. He cynically referred to the 37,000 dead Palestinians as “necessary sacrifices”, and revealed he has enough weapons and fighters to keep the war going for months.
While Haniyeh has reportedly been thinking about the day after the war – and trying to save Hamas as a political force through talks (sponsored by the Russians and the Chinese) aimed at unifying the Palestinian national movement – Sinwar is still focused on fighting the war. He knows it would be difficult for Netanyahu to accept what is effectively a new Hamas plan, which means he can continue the war and at the same time blame the Israelis.
Israel fighting on two fronts
Gantz’s resignation has highlighted Netanyahu’s failure to have a realistic political plan for Gaza’s future. Perhaps because of his military background, Gantz knows that military might alone will not defeat Hamas. Any plan for the day after the ceasefire that does not provide for Palestinian Authority rule in Gaza plays into Hamas’s hands.
Netanyahu is well known for being indecisive. Washington has been pressing him to implement what was originally an Israeli plan, but Hamas’s response has relieved him of that decision.
However, as the war in Gaza continues and conflict with Hezbollah escalates in the north, Netanyahu is left fighting on two fronts while the prospects of survival for the Israeli hostages worsen. It was Sinwar, not Haniyeh, who began this war on October 7 – and he clearly wants it to continue. Netanyahu’s lack of political initiatives to replace Hamas is allowing this to happen.