People have information on how they’ll vote, but also about how others in their community may vote.
AP Photo/Wong Maye-E
People know a lot about their friends and neighbors – and pollsters can learn from that information, if they ask.
Contrary to expectations, Victoria failed to deliver a government majority to Labor.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND
The Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon were always going to be key elements of a Coalition victory – and so it proved to be.
Bob Carr has a decades-long record of opposition to a ‘big Australia’.
Most surveys are consistent in finding there is a substantial minority of the view that immigration is too high, but not a large majority.
PA/ Andrew Matthew
The exit poll published at 10pm suggests the Conservatives could fall short of a parliamentary majority. Is it to be believed?
Some pollsters have updated their models since the 2015 election.
Polling is difficult – and everyone except pollsters overestimates how accurate polls are.
What will polling look like in the future?
Person taking survey via shutterstock.com
Pollsters must be as accurate as possible. How will they address the challenges revealed in the 2016 election, and other changes in the coming years?
Polls are best guesses, votes are real.
AP Photo/Lee Jin-man
People around the world were shocked when Hillary Clinton, ahead in many polls, didn’t end up the U.S.‘ president-elect. But that doesn’t mean the polls themselves were wrong.
This is news to me.
EPA/Lex van Lieshout
Forecasters have been left reeling once again after failing to predict the outcome of the US election.
Pauline Hanson claimed poll results showing high levels of opposition to Muslim immigration were understated.
Survey findings are typically considered in isolation in the media, with no understanding of context, of what is within and what is beyond the expected.
The polling industry struggled to predict the last British election, and referendums are even harder.
Absolutely definitely Labour? Ok thanks bye!
New survey information puts paid to ‘shy Tories’ theory.
Talk is cheap before ballots are cast.
Did anyone tell you this was the “most unpredictable election in years”? There’s a reason for that.
Anyone see it coming?
While pre-election polls got their sums wrong, and seemed to ignore biases in the rush to publish, a far more accurate call was being made in the betting shops of Britain.
Polling is a central part of any election these days. If only it weren’t such a complicated business.
All in this together.
Recent polls have put Labour and the Conservatives in what seems to be an unshakable dead heat. The latest Ashcroft poll puts them both on 33%. This takes the parties back to exactly where they were in…
Coal seam gas has proved a hot topic ahead of the NSW election, not only on the campaign trail but also on social media, where a ‘social mood reader’ can reveal the depth of community feeling.
Beyond polls and betting markets, how else can we gauge how people feel ahead of future elections? Social media is a goldmine, and one of the newer ways to tap into it is with a “social mood reader”.
After defeat in the 2012 election, it is back to the drawing board for the Republican Party. But will they address the true concerns of the electorate?
Tuesday, November 6 was a game changer. The Republican Party in the United States has come to understand that the political environment has been altered. White males can no longer dictate the results of…
More pressing matters: people can be “concerned’ about many things, but what really matters to them are problems close to daily life.
New polls frequently announce that a significant proportion of the population is concerned about an issue or willing to sacrifice for a cause, from environmental sustainability to Third World debt. These…