Polling for the 2022 midterms was more accurate than the dramatically wrong predictions of 2016 and 2020, leading one pollster to boast, ‘The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated.’
Academic rigor, journalistic flair
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Will some polls misfire in prominent races in the 2022 midterms? Probably. Will such errors be eye-catching? In some cases, perhaps. Will the news media continue to tout polls? Undoubtedly.
Washington Post reporters Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward broke stories about the Watergate scandal that helped unravel Richard Nixon’s presidency. But they were not the sole force to bring him down.
The ‘Napalm Girl’ photo is much more than powerful evidence of war’s indiscriminate effects on civilians. It also shows how false assertions can get traction in the media.
Addressing American domestic radicalism will require new ways of thinking about the nation’s problems, and new ways of solving them.
A task force of polling experts found surveys notably understated support for Donald Trump, both nationally and at the state level. Here’s what may have gone wrong, according to a polling historian.
Stung by their failure to accurately predict the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, pollsters collectively went off to figure out what went wrong. They have yet to figure out what or why.
The New York Times gave in to White House pressure and did not publish crucial information about an impending US-backed invasion of Cuba. It’s an old story, much repeated – but it’s wrong.
Language affects behavior. When words champion aggression, make violence acceptable and embolden audiences to action, incidents like the insurrection at the Capitol are the result.
Setiap kata punya konsekuensi. Penelitian beberapa dekade mendukung
argumen bahwa pidato Trump kemungkinan besar mendorong massa pendukungnya sehingga terjadi pemberontakan di gedung Capitol AS.
Words have consequences. And decades of research supports the contention that Donald Trump’s words could in fact incite people to mount an insurrection at the US Capitol.
Pollster Bud Roper once said of his field that “a good deal more than half is art and … less than half is science.” After the 2020 polls got a lot wrong, is it time for more candor from pollsters?
Les sondages prédisaient une « vague bleue » qui ne s’est pas concrétisée.
Polls predicted a ‘blue wave’ that didn’t materialize.
An expert on the history of polling has a first take on how pollsters did this year.
Polling is an imperfect attempt at providing insight and explanation. But the public’s desire for insight and explanation about elections never ends, so polls endure despite their flaws and failures.
Polling shows Joe Biden with a large lead over Donald Trump nationally in the presidential race. But there are many ways that presidential race polling has gone wrong in the past, and could do so now.
Presidential pollsters in the US have had some embarrassing failures. Here’s a catalog of those miscalls, from the scholar who literally wrote the book on them.
There was a time when well-known journalists resented preelection polls and didn’t mind saying so. One even said he felt “secret glee and relief when the polls go wrong.” Why did they feel this way?
Hackers demonstrated they can take over Twitter’s technology infrastructure, a brazen move that hints at how such an attack could destabilize society.
Authors
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Associate Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of Communication
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Journalist in Residence, American University School of Communication
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Executive Director of the Center for Media & Social Impact, Assistant Professor, American University School of Communication
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Professor, School of Communication; Executive Editor, Investigative Reporting Workshop, American University School of Communication
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Professor of Film and Media Arts, American University School of Communication
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Faculty Fellow, Internet Governance Lab, American University School of Communication
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Assistant Professor, American University School of Communication
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Associate Professor, American University School of Communication
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Assistant Professor of Public Communications, American University School of Communication
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Assistant Professor of Public Communication, American University School of Communication
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Professor and Interim Dean, American University School of Communication
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Assistant Professor, American University School of Communication
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Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of Communication
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Associate Professor, American University School of Communication
