Predicting the risk of animal extinction is notoriously difficult, especially when examining species that migrate between breeding and wintering sites, however researchers at the University of Georgia and Tulane University have developed a mathematical model that may produce more accurate predictions and measurements.
Richard Hall, assistant research scientist in the UGA Odum School of Ecology, explained that the new model is an important advancement because it takes into account the colonisation and extinction rates at both breeding and non-breeding sites.
“What our model shows is that even if the populations in the breeding areas look healthy, without knowing the state of the non-breeding areas, we could be vastly underestimating the likelihood of extinction,” Hall said.
Read more at Biology Letters