The Conversation

We are used to thinking in probabilities: will it be stormy enough to need an umbrella? Luis Martins

In science, the only certainty is uncertainty

Sophie Lewis, The University of Melbourne and Ailie Gallant, Monash University

In the lead up to the release next month of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fifth Assessment Report we are exploring concepts of confidence and certainty in climate science. You…

Sometimes a piece of the puzzle won’t fit, but overall the picture is coming together. Dave Ginsberg

150 years and counting: confidence in climate science

Ailie Gallant, Monash University and Sophie Lewis, The University of Melbourne

In the lead up to the release next month of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fifth Assessment Report we are exploring concepts of confidence and certainty in climate science. The…

Maybe humans aren’t causing climate change, and maybe penguins choose not to fly. Antarctica Bound/Flickr

Penguins can’t fly and humans are causing climate change: how scientists build theories

Ailie Gallant, Monash University and Sophie Lewis, The University of Melbourne

In the lead up to the release next month of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fifth Assessment Report we are exploring concepts of confidence and certainty in climate science – beginning…