British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak talks to journalists on his plane as he travels from Northern Ireland to Birmingham in May 2024 during a day of campaigning for the British election on July 4.
(HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool photo via AP)
The “PM and the Pendulum” model has been successfully forecasting British elections since 2005. This year’s predictions suggest UK Conservatives are in for a major drubbing on July 4.
Independents may be difficult for campaigns to connect with.
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Both the Biden and Trump campaigns will work to mobilize their bases and maximize turnout among their supporters. But those votes alone will probably not be enough to ensure victory.
ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa, left, canvasses for votes in Johannesburg.
Olympia de Maissmont/AFP via Getty Images.
The 2024 elections may be the tipping point that enables opposition parties to portray themselves as viable contenders in forming a national coalition government.
Voters cast their ballots in the race for governor in Kentucky on Nov. 7, 2023.
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Imprecision in election polling has long been recognized. But advance polls are still useful in recognizing trends in voter preferences, and candidates’ weak points.
U.S. President Joe Biden mingles with diners at Hannibal’s Kitchen in Charleston, S.C., in January 2024.
(AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)
Despite what January polls suggest, in a Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden rematch in November, a result similar to 2020 would be probable: a big Biden vote lead and tight state-by-state battles.