For Team Obama, change is in the air.
Not the hope-and-change fever of 2008. That, it’s safe to say, won’t be returning any time soon. But after a year in which Democrats could best be described as “grimly determined”, in recent days that grimness has given way to gaiety. Overflowing rallies, big-name surrogates, impromptu bear hugs – Barack Obama’s back, and so is his base.
Numbers help tell the story: though it’s still early, both Gallup and Rasmussen polling firms report a more sizable convention bounce for President Obama than for his competitor Mitt Romney.
But more importantly, the atmospherics are beginning to shift. Following a buzz-generating convention in Charlotte, Barack Obama hustled down to Florida to rally voters in the nation’s most hotly-contested swing state.
In Seminole, Florida, the sweltering heat did little to dint turnout for Saturday’s Obama rally. Organizers planned for 15,000; security began turning away people when the venue reached capacity.
Enthusiasm is surging for surrogates, too. Today the campaign announced Bill Clinton, fresh from his celebrated stem-winder in Charlotte, would be appearing in Miami on Tuesday. At the Obama for America headquarters where tickets were being distributed, the crammed parking lot and sprawling line attested to the growing excitement surrounding the campaign.
Just as important as the burgeoning crowds are the shifting optics. The campaign-trail picture of the day was a snapshot of a registered Republican scooping up the president in an exuberant bear hug. It’s the sort of image that lingers, not only because of the personal connection and unrestrained enthusiasm, but because it’s nearly impossible to imagine Mitt Romney in the same situation.
Obama 2012 has been in dire need of this sort of vigour. Campaign donations, crowd sizes, turnout predictions — all have lagged well behind 2008. The campaign now must find a way to sustain this enthusiasm for the next eight weeks, so that the people showing up to rallies today show up to voting booths come November.
Jay Julian
Curriculum consultant
"Campaign donations, crowd sizes, turnout predictions — all have lagged well behind 2008."
Please don't make sweeping generalisations regarding donations as this aspect of the President's campaign is quantifiable. In August, Pres. Obama received $113 Million, slighty above Gov. Romney's donations for the month.
What matters is how successful Pres. Obama's ground operators will be in their GOTV efforts. During the six months of the primary elections, Mr Romney's funds would have been significantly diverted to negative advertising against Perry, Gingrich, and Santorum when most of the President's expenditure was to set up a more formidable ground operation.
Nicole Hemmer
Visiting Assistant Professor at University of Miami & Research Associate at University of Sydney
I agree that the Obama ground game is quite important to watch. They've been experimenting with micro-targeting, have an extensive local presence across Florida and other swing states, and have drawn more press attention for their efforts than the GOP, likely because the Republicans' efforts haven't been as solid or novel.
My point is simply this: indicators of enthusiasm, such as crowd size and donations, have been off the 2008 mark. Even setting aside the campaign's initial goal of $1 billion raised (now a pipe-dream), total fundraising for the Obama campaign is about 10 per cent behind 2008. In addition, while you're right to point out Obama pulled in more donations than Romney in August - a notable shift from previous months - bear in mind that in August 2008 Obama raised around $150 million. These are the sort of metrics that have caused some Democratic hand-wringing; I would suggest we're beginning to see a shift there.