GDP

Analysis and Comment (17)

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China’s economic miracle will see it become the world’s greatest financial power; but it critical for the country’s new leaders to ensure its workers aren’t left behind. AAP

China’s economic miracle is close to fruition, but what now for workers?

China’s Communist Party has overseen an economic miracle over the past 20 years, but they are now facing the consequences of becoming the fastest growing economy on the planet. With China’s GDP now standing…
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There is little evidence to support the belief that Australia’s productivity declines are linked to the need for labour market reform. AAP

Australia’s choice: the ‘high road’ to productivity or a race to the bottom

It is not easy to devise a solution to Australia’s productivity slowdown when a shared understanding of the problem is so elusive. While there is recognition among policy-makers that productivity is a…
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How should we measure the size of the Australian economy? AAP

Punching above our weight: sizing up Australia’s economy

Treasurer Wayne Swan recently noted that Australia now has the world’s twelfth largest economy. This suggests it has moved up three places during Labor’s period of office, and regained the three places…
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A poor report card on Australia’s productivity carried some obvious flaws. Flickr

Gloomy productivity report hides some fatal flaws

This week’s global report ranking Australia’s productivity growth performance second-last on a list of 51 countries raised eyebrows and prompted calls for urgent action. The Australian Human Resources…
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Economic modelling shows Australia’s GDP will be modestly affected by the carbon tax in the long term: but the equitable redistribution of tax revenue will be critical. AAP

The carbon tax: insurance against climate change?

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is like buying an insurance policy: we incur a cost to reduce a risk. Every year Australians spend millions on insuring homes, cars and their health, not because they know…
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Robert F Kennedy thought it a mistake to equate success with what we produce. RFK Wharehouse

There’s more to good policy than increasing GDP

Economists are regularly criticised for worrying about gross domestic product (GDP) and similar measures. The classic statement of the case was by Robert F Kennedy: “Too much and too long, we seem to…
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Worst hit by the Asian financial crisis in 1998, Indonesia’s economy has returned to pre-crisis growth rates. What lessons are there for Greece? Flickr/Cillian Storm

Can Greece learn from the story of Indonesia in the Asian financial crisis?

European financial woes are mounting daily is what some have called the biggest economic challenge of our generation. However, just over a decade ago an even larger financial crisis was unfolding in Australia…
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What’s the true picture of Chinese economic stimulus? China’s decision to cut interest rates actually has modest implications for Australia. AAP

China’s economy: thinking beyond the short run

Last week’s decision by China to cut interest rates by 0.25% seemed to attract almost as much attention in Australia as the same decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) several days earlier. The…
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Australia’s economy is in rude health – yet people’s fears of imminent economic disaster are not groundless. AAP

Grim faces as GDP booms: what is happening here?

A simple line graph of the share of mining investment in Australia’s GDP reveals the scale of what our economy is going through. It shows that mining investment is now twice as large relative to GDP…
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Increasing workforce participation of women and older people could increase Australia’s GDP by $50 billion. AAP

How can Australian governments change the game for economic growth?

If Australian governments are serious about raising rates of economic growth, they must reform the tax mix and increase the workforce participation rates of women and older people. Each of these reforms…
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Size does matter: rather than be concerned about achieving a surplus or a deficit, the government should be focusing on how to manage its debt. AAP

Don’t forget the debt: there’s more to fiscal prudence than a return to surplus

Treasurer Swan’s commitment to bring the government budget into surplus in 2012-13 may be a political imperative, but is not good economics. The focus for prudential fiscal management should instead be…
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IMF head Christine Lagarde sees some positives in global economic growth: but we should be wary of broad projections. AAP

Trouble lurks for Australia amid shallow economic forecasts

The recent economic forecasts of the IMF and OECD about prospects for economic growth remind me of an aphorism about the economist who drowned while crossing a river he estimated that was, on average…
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Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens: knowing how individuals board members think is important. AAP

Shadowing the RBA: uncertainty matters when it comes to interest rates

Monetary policymaking is imperfect. When board members of a central bank such as the Reserve Bank of Australia sit down to set the appropriate target cash rate each month – as they did this week – there…
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Our obsession with growth stops us taking meaningful action on climate change. Flickr/hfabulous

Can we let go of growth and embrace climate action?

While global warming deniers have been effective in their aim of sowing doubt in the public mind, the most powerful argument used over and over has been that cutting emissions will cut growth, and that…

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