Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.
While the latest polls show the Coalition struggling to gain ground on Labor in two-party preferred terms, Scott Morrison maintains his lead as preferred prime minister.
Post-budget polls show a small gain for the Coalition on two-party preferred figures, but still point to a Labor victory is replicated on election day.
While Ipsos on Newspoll are telling different stories about leaders’ approval ratings, both are still showing a likely victory for Labor at the federal election.