Articles on economic forecasts

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As uncertain as 2019-20 is, The Conversation’s team of 20 leading economists are in broad agreement that the outlook isn’t good. Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will also have to deal with the unexpected. Wes Mountain/The Conversation

Buckle up. 2019-20 survey finds the economy weak and heading down, and that’s ahead of surprises

The Conversation's distinguished panel predicts unusually weak growth, dismal spending, no improvement in either unemployment or wage growth, and an increased chance of recession.
Things will continue to look good enough for long enough to help the government fight the election. Beyond that, the Conversation Economic Panel is worried. Wes Mountain/The Conversation

No surplus, no share market growth, no lift in wage growth. Economic survey points to bleaker times post-election

The Conversation has assembled a forecasting team of 19 academic economists from 12 universities across six states. Together, they assign a 25% probability to a recession within two years.
The poll asked whether forecasting for the budget should be taken away from Treasury and be given to another independent agency. Lukas Coch/AAP

Leave budget forecasting to Treasury: economists

Polled economists say another independent body wouldn't necessairly do a better job of economic forecasting for the budget than Treasury.
If wages just grow at the rate of the last 12 months, rather than at the higher growth in the budget forecasts, income tax collections will be A$7 billion less for 2019-20. Joel Carrett/AAP

Why biased budget forecasts make poor politics

Wonky forecasts show it's time for a new approach that adopts more conservative forecasts, and makes a genuine commitment to budget repair.
South Africans take their cue from what Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan says about the country’s economic outlook. Reuters/Mike Hutchings

Economic forecasting: why it matters and why it’s so often wrong

Forecasts are crucial for all economic and business activity. But looking into the future involves uncertainty and risk. Forecasts may be inaccurate, which creates a serious dilemma for policy makers

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