For most of us, preparing for the future means having a retirement fund and health coverage, choosing our preferred tree change or sea change option and keeping on the good side of the relatives who will eventually pick out our nursing home. For the most part we don’t want to think about these things at all, as anyone who has tried to talk this over with their partners has probably found out.
Talking about preparing for a future affected by climate change is even less welcome a topic and many of the same considerations hold true.
We know there will be some big-impact events but not when and where they will happen. The Australian Climate Change Science Program (ACCSP) produces great technical information but not what I need on a personal level. Looking at the Climate Change in Australia website I can get a general idea of the risks I face from higher temperatures and changed rainfall patterns over the coming decades, but not what to actually expect in any given year. How can I reduce the risk? Having a high-set Queenslander house reduces my risks of climate impacts from very hot weather and flooding while I live on the Brisbane flood plain.
On the same level, the National Stroke Foundation shows my changing risk as I age, but not for certain if I will have a stroke. With my family history of diabetes and heart disease, my risk is high. But I also know that by keeping fit and eating light, I can improve my chances.
Preparing for both ageing and for climate change involves managing the risks and deciding what we are willing to change and what we are willing to chance. Mostly we don’t want to think about either one and like to see difficult times as far off in the future.
How much we do not want to think about dealing with impacts from climate change was brought home to me through a series of casual conversations in 2007, where I mentioned newly released climate projections for 2050. I could see people mentally counting in their head and then say “I’ll be dead then!” as a big smile spread across their face.
When this kept happening no matter where I travelled, I came to think that many people would rather be dead than have to face what we expect from climate change.
In the same way, when young people express a horror at the prospect of getting old, they picture the losses in reduced options and opportunities, without appreciating the benefits gained over a lifetime. As old age gets closer our attitudes change along with our expectations. A fit and well off 70-year old can have a very good day, but he is still 70. Someone in 2050 dealing with unpredictable weather patterns, fewer food options and having to learn new job skills will likely have different expectations than we do now and can still have a very good day.
In some ways I think we have a failure of imagination looking at the climate-affected future. We have seen climate change as something to be stopped, that global warming could be avoided if we reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.
Now weather patterns have started to change and emission reductions aim to keep the changes from reaching a dangerous level, even as some climate impacts have become unavoidable. Changes have been set in motion through inertia in the climate system and emissions absorbed in the oceans that will enter the atmosphere over the coming decades.
The small and large choices we make each year will shape how prepared we are to meet new challenges. Like ageing, the key to adapting to climate change is to act now to increase our capacity to enjoy the benefits and opportunities, and decrease our vulnerability to the negative impacts.
When I picture myself at 70 I have an image of my parents and grandparents at that age but with the benefits of better nutrition and medical care. What is more difficult is picturing the world around me. The very tricky thing about adapting to climate change is knowing what to expect, expressed in the standard disclaimer for financial products, “past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results”. That has not stopped us investing for our retirement but it will be even more important as we prepare for climate change.
Theo Pertsinidis
Theo Pertsinidis is a Friend of The Conversation.
ALP voter
The problem with unanswered questions, and triggering arousal levels for action, because that is what the doctor prescribed is... procrastination.
We have got to see evidence that the positives are more than the negatives to raise our confidence level before we join causes.
Why should people join or support causes that provide benefits that
Read morethey will gain even if they do not join the cause? Why, for example, should someone join a trades union if they will receive any negotiated wage increases…
Gil Hardwick
Anthropologist
Plainly, Theo, and we have both witnessed this in our own lifetimes, following the devastation of war people will invariably collaborate in social, civil and economic reconstruction; will join unions and professional associations, and will work to advance common cause. The reason they will do that is simply, and for no other reason, because they are all standing in the same shit.
Once things are back on track, however, once wage levels and working conditions are legislated, living standards have…
Read moreSebastian Poeckes
Retired
The problem with procrastination in the case of both aging and climate change is that they are absolutely inevitable. Sooner or later we will all have to come to grips with them and there can be no free riders. Speaking from the vantage point of my eighth decade, the implications of being old are a constant reality. With age comes arthritis, for example, and there are no free rides in coping with that. Similarly, with the impact of climate change there will be no free rides. People can ignore unpleasant realities until they are imminent, but eventually procrastination is not an option.
In each case, preparation for coping with old age and preparing for the effects of climate change, co-operation at a political level is vital to set the environment in which individual choices must be made. At present Australian politics is only haltingly addressing these major issues
Comment removed by moderator.
Drew Ringsmuth
PhD Candidate in Biophysics at University of Queensland
I don't understand the point of this article. It seems to say, 'We need to prepare for climate change, just as we need to prepare for other things the full details of which we cannot know in advance, and preparing for such things takes some discipline.' Did I miss something?
John Coochey
Mr
I agree, anyone with or without formal qualifications (whatever those are worth these days) could have written this but why bother? How are we in any way enlightened or more informed than before we read it?
John Coochey
Mr
I wonder what the total cost to Australia is of academics employed to make inane publications so long as they include the words "climate change" at least once in every paragraph? Is there any organisation in Australia that does not have a Climate Change sub organization, even the BTE had such a cell which seems to have been abandoned now its empire building originator has retired.
Mike Swinbourne
logged in via Facebook
I wonder what the cost is to intelligent discussion in this country of having naysayers constantly whining about the need to develop strategies to both mitigate and adapt to climate change.
Perhaps if these naysayers had disappeared years ago, we would need less adaption and would have been able to mitigate far more cheaply.
John Coochey
Mr
The actual cost of people who can think for themselves is nothing because non of them are on the professional gravy train. But even if you are a bed wetter how does this article advance any argument?
Gil Hardwick
Anthropologist
The problem with this article is the usual, ubiquitous 'we' deployed throughout, as if the whole of humanity consists of the same mindlessly dull hanger-on to whatever fad happens to be passing by.
I do do all this professionally, 25 years in the field and another 10 as a writer on social and environmental impacts, not that it makes much difference when the entire population is categorised into loose classes of 'deniers', 'nay-sayers', 'doubters', 'luke-warmers', 'supporters' and 'scientists…
Read moreCraig Minns
Self-employed
Gil:"arguments posing binary oppositions between one 'point of view' and another,"
Unfortunately, as vast numbers of people with liberal arts degrees have been pumped out by institutions lead by people with liberal arts degrees, the whole concept of "argument" has become confused with that of "debate". That has lead to a debasement in the value we place on genuine empiricism, in favour of pseudo-rationalism. It's not genuine rationalism, because the people expressing the views haven't come to…
Read moreKim Peart
Researcher & Writer
Craig Minns ~
Your observation goes a long way toward explaining the root cause of our crisis on Earth, including addiction to fossil fuel and an increasingly unsustainable drain on the planet.
Can I put it as simply as the need for honesty?
Dogma is essential to allow our current civilization to do what it does.
If we were to slam the brakes on and demand honesty, how many trained minds would know what to do?
It is like expecting a fundamentalist Christian creationist to embrace evolution…
Read moreKim Peart
Researcher & Writer
What is the name of the great artist who retired?
Artists notoriously burn brightly until their candle is blown out by the wind of fate.
The spirit of the artist is like that of the Viking, sailing fearlessly into the unknown.
Like the great artist, the Viking looked to die with a sword in their hand, going down in the fight for life, not whimpering away in the straw.
Like the Viking, the great artist wields their paintbrush to the last stroke.
As we face the gauntlet of Earth changes…
Read moreComment removed by moderator.
Trevor S
Jack of all Trades
If one is not a denier, then one must accept that the predictions made have a high probability of outcome. One then decides one can do nothing about it, can whine and require someone else do something about it on their behalf and/or can be proactive and mitigate their contribution to the destruction. I was looking forward to constructive ideas in the latter but this piece was ... what ... ephemeral ?
I take Gil's point about what will be will be and they will handle it as "it's all happened…
Read moreComment removed by moderator.
Peter Gringinger
logged in via email @iinet.net.au
Even though the article lack on detail and depth it at least raises important questions often neglected and not discussed. What it will mean on individual level having to cope with climate change. However, I see this as a much broader issues of the future of current societies, which are based on excessive energy and resource consumption, which is obviously not sustainable and Peak Debt, Peak Oil and Peak everything else will bring us down, and climate change will make things worse for us. If you…
Read moreJohn Harland
bicycle technician
A helpful reflection, that of older folk not caring about what happens aftere they are gone, and young people not wanting to face when they may be old.
Have so many of us become so individualised that the future is purely our own experience, and not that of our descendants?
It is not only "grey nomads" spending their kids' inheritance.
Julie McNeill
I read and write
Attracted to the article due to a need to respond to a weekly passionate nay-sayer on climate change etc published in all our local newspapers of the Ipswich region Qld.
Read moreI imagine he is old-old - so absolute in denigrating and defying any scientific evidence and consequence, of not seeing what is happening now. The few like me do our bit to make the world a better place for our baby grandchildren to reduce carbon, run our town's on solar thermal power, grow vegies or pay someone to do community…
Kim Peart
Researcher & Writer
Julie McNeill ~
There is a detail worth keeping in mind.
We have collectively and totally failed to keep a safe Earth.
The core problem is too much CO2 in the air, now 400 ppm and set to skyrocket, from further human emissions and also a generous contribution of greenhouse gases from Nature, with a fast warming Arctic region.
We have seen a little of what is to come, but we ain't seen nothin yet, as we look toward a very dangerous future.
In the 1970s I was involved in a space movement…
Read more