Buying and selling stocks – with real or play money – is a way to harness the wisdom of the crowd about questions like who is going to win a competition.
Social influencers vie for public attention in a crowded market place. This makes the bold and the ruthless even more likely to opt for strategic dishonesty if it will further their interests.
Members of the public were more overconfident and less accurate in predicting the likely number of infections and deaths, but both groups missed the mark.
Whether you are predicting the outcome of an election or studying how effective a new drug is, there will always be some uncertainty. A margin of error is how statisticians measure that uncertainty.
His life’s work was asserting the humanity and history of the Bantu people, while proposing that the soul was able to bring knowledge of the past and of the future into the present.
Predicting life expectancy remains in the realm of science fiction, but it may soon be possible. Are we prepared for such information? And who else would benefit from this knowledge?
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University