Will some polls misfire in prominent races in the 2022 midterms? Probably. Will such errors be eye-catching? In some cases, perhaps. Will the news media continue to tout polls? Undoubtedly.
Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.
While the latest polls show the Coalition struggling to gain ground on Labor in two-party preferred terms, Scott Morrison maintains his lead as preferred prime minister.
At the 2019 election, the polls got it seriously wrong. State polls and election results suggest this may have been corrected, but it’s by no means certain.
Would Australians vote for an Indigenous Voice in the Constitution, or just approve the parliament simply legislating a Voice?
Australians may support one, both, or neither.
A task force of polling experts found surveys notably understated support for Donald Trump, both nationally and at the state level. Here’s what may have gone wrong, according to a polling historian.
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University