Under Peter Gutwein, the Liberals have won a record third term, but without the huge swings to incumbent governments that have been seen in other states.
Both Liberal and Labor have had shaky campaigns, but the premier's gamble that an early poll to capitalise on COVID management is the ticket to another term may well pay off.
Pokies, housing, hospitals and gun laws might have been the specific issues that dominated the campaign, but the decisive factor was Tasmanians’ enduring apprehension about minority government.
The Liberals went from a losing position in Tasmanian polls months ago to a comfortable victory on election day.
Both major parties have declared they will not form minority government in Tasmania – talk that should be taken seriously, but not literally.
The polls are leaning towards the Liberals holding power in Tasmania, but the unpopularity of the federal Coalition government could help Labor get over the line.