The Conversation’s expert panel expects the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates two to three times over the next 18 months, with the first cut likely in March.
L’expertise universitaire, l’exigence journalistique
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The Reserve Bank will keep rates high until it sees clear evidence inflation is heading back toward its target band. It’s really that simple.
Only one-third of the top economists surveyed give Jim Chalmers’ third budget an A or a B, down from two-thirds in 2023. Many say it left big issues unaddressed.
Tuesday’s budget will show there has been an improvement of $10.5 billion in the bottom line. The update forecasted a deficit of $1.1 billion for 2023-24.
Holding up Labor’s female vote will be vital, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has declared Tuesday will bring “a budget for mums and middle Australia”.
While the iconic ‘budget tree’ has its own narrative it’s now up to Chalmers to weave his budget story and kick some goals for the government.
Australia’s economy is already alarmingly weak. A big cut in government spending in next week’s budget could push us from a per capita recession into an actual recession.
Every time the Reserve Bank has pushed up interest rates in order to take money out of the system, it’s also been putting money in, in a way it didn’t use to.
The Conversation’s expert panel expects inflation to continue to fall, but more gradually, and it expects the RBA to be slow in responding. Unemployment should climb and economic growth weaken.
Per person, we’re spending less this year – even on this year’s much hyped Black Friday sales. If that continues over summer and inflation stays low, a rate hike in February 2024 looks unlikely.
Up until December 9 1983, officials used to announce each morning how much the dollar was worth. Even bankers were shocked about letting the market set the price – but it’s served Australia well.
Average prices fell in October, driven down by dives in the price of petrol and overseas travel, and an increase in Commonwealth Rent assistance.
Sure, a good many of us don’t trust politicians – but surely politicians ought to trust politicians. History shows why they might one day need to overturn a Reserve Bank decision.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has made the first ever Reserve Bank appointment from outside the country as part of an effort to fight ‘groupthink’.
Australian financial markets are now pointing to a close to zero chance of further rate rises – with a fair chance of a rate cut next year. That’s thanks to the latest news from the US and UK.
It’ll now be a frugal Christmas in many Australian homes. But there is a glimmer of good news: if we do tighten our belts, rates could start to come down by as early as the middle of next year.
The governor’s remarks about the board “not hesitating” to raise rates further aren’t as clear cut as they seem.
Wednesday’s September-quarter figures, showing inflation is still uncomfortably high, set off speculation about whether the Reserve Bank will increase interest rates again
Inflation has slipped from 6% to 5.4%, but the price of petrol climbed 7.2% in the September quarter. Much depends on what the RBA thinks will happen from here on.
Petrol prices have pushed inflation up. At its next meeting, the Reserve Bank board is going to have to decide if that warrants an increase in interest rates.
Les contributeurs les plus fréquents
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Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
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Professor of Economics, UNSW Sydney
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Lecturer in Economics, Monash University
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
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Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra
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Senior Lecturer, Research School of Economics, and Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University
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Professor of Economics and National Senior Teaching Fellow, Griffith University
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Adjunct Professor, Swinburne University of Technology
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Emeritus Professor of Finance, The University of Melbourne
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Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney
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Visiting Fellow, Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre, Macquarie University
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Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland
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Program Director, Trade and Investment, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Dean of Business School, University of Southern Queensland
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Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania
