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Principal Research Scientist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Andrew specialises in extreme events including bushfires, thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, east coast lows and their associated hazardous weather (severe wind, rain, flood, hail and lightning), from sub-daily time scales out to long-term climate change research.

Experience

  • 2007–present
    Research Scientist, Bureau of Meteorology
  • 2006–2007
    Policy Officer, Department of the Environment and Heritage
  • 2001–2003
    Lidar physicist, Australian Antarctic Division

Education

  • 2005 
    University of Adelaide, PhD

Publications

  • 2021
    Extreme temperature, wind and bushfire weather projections using a standardised method, http://www.bom.gov.au/research/publications/researchreports/BRR-055.pdf
  • 2020
    Climatology of thunderstorms, convective rainfall and dry lightning environments in Australia, Climate Dynamics
  • 2020
    Seamless climate change projections and seasonal predictions for bushfires in Australia, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
  • 2020
    Quantifying hail and lightning risk factors using long‐term observations around Australia, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
  • 2019
    Climate change increases the potential for extreme wildfires, Geophysical Research Letters
  • 2019
    A Physically Based Climatology of the Occurrence and Intensification of Australian East Coast Lows, Journal of Climate
  • 2019
    Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models, Climate Dynamics
  • 2019
    A global climatology of surface anticyclones, their variability, associated drivers and long-term trends, Climate Dynamics
  • 2019
    Wildfire and weather radar: a review, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
  • 2019
    Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires, Scientific Reports
  • 2019
    Review of Australian east coast low pressure systems and associated extremes, Climate Dynamics
  • 2019
    On Determining the Impact of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 on the Record Fire Weather in Eastern Australia in February 2017, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
  • 2019
    Long-term changes in southern Australian anticyclones and their impacts, Climate Dynamics
  • 2019
    Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
  • 2019
    Historical extreme rainfall events in southeastern Australia, Weather and Climate Extremes
  • 2019
    Weather radar insights into the turbulent dynamics of a wildfire‐triggered supercell thunderstorm, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
  • 2018
    Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia, Journal of applied meteorology and climatology
  • 2018
    Energetics and dynamics of subtropical australian east coast cyclones: two contrasting cases, Monthly Weather Review
  • 2018
    Mobile X-Pol radar: A new tool for investigating pyroconvection and associated wildfire meteorology, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
  • 2018
    Exploratory analysis of lightning-ignited wildfires in the Warren Region, Western Australia, Journal of environmental management
  • 2018
    Lightning prediction for Australia using multivariate analyses of large-scale atmospheric variables, Journal of applied meteorology and climatology
  • 2018
    Pyroconvection risk in Australia: Climatological changes in atmospheric stability and surface fire weather conditions, Geophysical Research Letters
  • 2017
    Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences, Scientific Reports
  • 2017
    Classification of Australian Thunderstorms using Multivariate Analyses of Large-Scale Atmospheric Variables, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
  • 2017
    Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
  • 2017
    Pyrocumulonimbus lightning and fire ignition on Black Saturday in southeast Australia, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
  • 2016
    Tropical cyclone track direction climatology and its intraseasonal variability in the Australian region, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
  • 2016
    Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world, Scientific Reports
  • 2015
    Large-scale modelling of environments favourable for dry lightning occurrence, MODSIM: ISBN: 978-0-9872143-5-5
  • 2015
    Climate Change in Australia Information for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions: Technical Report, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
  • 2015
    East Coast Cluster Report, Climate Change in Australia Projections for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions. Availabe here: http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.4/cms_page_media/172/EAST_COAST_CLUSTER_REPORT.pdf, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
  • 2015
    Estimating trends and seasonality in Australian monthly lightning flash counts., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
  • 2015
    Rainfall in Australia’s eastern seaboard: a review of confidence in projections based on observations and physical processes., Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal
  • 2015
    Development of a global fire weather database for 1980-2012, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
  • 2014
    Fewer large waves for eastern Australia due to decreasing storminess, Nature Climate Change
  • 2014
    Lightning climatology of Australia: temporal and spatial variability, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal
  • 2014
    Long-term changes in Australian tropical cyclone numbers, Atmospheric Science Letters
  • 2013
    Large-scale diagnostics of extratropical cyclogenesis in eastern Australia, International Journal of Climatology
  • 2013
    Changes in the risk of extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia., Journal of Climate
  • 2013
    Understanding rainfall projections in relation to extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal
  • 2012
    An analysis of tropical cyclone occurrence in the Southern Hemisphere derived from a new satellite-era dataset, International Journal of Remote Sensing
  • 2012
    Tropical cyclone climatology of the South Pacific Ocean and its relationship to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Journal of Climate
  • 2012
    Atmospheric and fuel moisture characteristics associated with lightning-attributed fires, J. of Applied Met. and Climate
  • 2012
    Characteristics of lightning-attributed fires in south-east Australia, International Journal of Wildland Fire
  • 2011
    Large-scale indicators of Australian East Coast Lows and associated extreme weather events, CAWCR, Technical Report 37
  • 2010
    Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index, Meteorological Applications
  • 2010
    Diagnosing indicators of large-scale forcing of east-coast cyclogenesis, IOP: Earth and Environmental Science
  • 2009
    Australian fire weather as represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index, CAWCR, Technical Report 10
  • 2009
    Atmospheric states associated with the ignition of lightning-attributed fires in southeast Australia, CAWCR, Technical Report 19
  • 2007
    Polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere dynamics, Part I: Mean wind and gravity wave climatologies, Journal of Geophysical Research
  • 2007
    Polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere dynamics, Part II: The response to sudden stratospheric warmings, Journal of Geophysical Research
  • 2004
    The large-scale dynamics of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere during the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming of 2002, Geophysical Research Letters
  • 2003
    First year of Rayleigh Lidar measurements of middle atmosphere temperatures over Davis, Antarctica, Advances in Space Research
  • 2003
    Further evidence of hemispheric differences in the MLT mean wind climatology: Simultaneous MF radar observations at Poker Flat (65°N, 147°W) and Davis (69°S, 78°E), Geophysical Research Letters
  • 2001
    A comparison of mean winds and gravity wave activity in the northern and southern polar MLT, Geophysical Research Letters

Professional Memberships

  • Australian Science Communicators
  • Member of the Science Advisory Panel of the Victorian Coastal Council
  • Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS)
  • Member of Climate Change Project Team appointed by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council
  • Member of the Climate risk Measurement Standards Initiative (CMSI)
  • IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Author