I lead the Modelling & Integration group which is part of BAS’s Ecosystems programme.
We investigate how different parts of the Southern Ocean marine food web (penguins, other seabirds, seals, whales, fish, benthic invertebrates, zooplankton, phytoplankton) interact with each other and the environment (currents, water masses, ice, climate), and how they respond to external pressures (fishing and global change).
We contribute to the conservation of the Southern Ocean ecosystem through participation in CCAMLR and advice to decision makers. This work includes assessing and predicting the ecosystem effects of fishing, identifying appropriate sites for marine protected areas, and developing and evaluating ways of monitoring the state of polar marine ecosystems.
Our work supports ecosystem-based management (EBM) of marine resources. EBM recognises the need to balance conservation objectives with social and economic objectives. Our interests therefore extend to the economic and social impact of policy options and global change, to characterising the perceived value of polar marine ecosystems and to examining trade-offs between the different objectives implied these diverse perceptions.
We develop and use models to describe and predict ecosystem interactions at a range of time and space scales. Although some of these models attempt to predict the future, we recognise that these predictions are very uncertain. Nonetheless, assessments of the risk of particular outcomes are possible and useful for making decisions. We are interested in ways of communicating risk and uncertainty.
Our work requires the integration of diverse, spatially-resolved datasets and we are also working on ways to manage and deliver these datasets.