Malaysians go to the polls again on August 12. Six of the 13 states in the Malaysian Federation are holding elections.
The states have relatively little power in Malaysian politics, as state assemblies have limited authority and short sittings. But precisely because the past five years of federal politics in Malaysia have seen unprecedented instability and uncertainty, these state polls represent a test of faith in the new government of Anwar Ibrahim.
And while there is no direct mechanism by which the results of state polls impact on support for the federal government, the key test is how Anwar’s national unity grand coalition stands up to the scrutiny of voters.
A turbulent history
For 61 years, from independence in 1957 until the general election of 2018, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) had a lock on power in Malaysian politics. For better or worse, UMNO, the party of choice for the majority of ethnic Malay voters, together with its Barisan Nasional (BN - National Front) junior coalition partners the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), maintained stability and certainty in Malaysian life. For most Malaysians, BN was the only conceivable option for economic and social stability in a multi-ethnic country built around communal politics.
The cost of this stability, however, was considerable. Six decades of unchallenged UMNO power produced rentier politics and systemic nepotism that hollowed out meritocracy and accountability.
Read more: The daunting task facing new Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim: uniting a divided country
A movement for reform in Malaysia began when the Asian financial crisis struck in 1997. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad had been in power since 1981. Few dared question his authority, and those who did were harshly put down.
But as the financial crisis highlighted the urgent need for reform, it was Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anwar Ibrahim who led the calls for change.
Smarting at his implied criticism, Mahathir sacked Anwar in 1998. He then sought to publicly humiliate him with criminal charges of sodomy and abuse of power, charges that in 1999 saw Anwar sentenced to jail for a second time (after being imprisoned in 1974 for 20 months for protesting for reform as a student leader).
While he was in jail, Anwar’s wife Wan Aziza founded Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR - the People’s Justice Party). She also helped lead the reformasi movement, inspired by the movement that had contributed to the ending of the Suharto regime in Indonesia.
From there sprang the coalition for free and fair elections, known by its acronym Bersih (“clean”). It focused on establishing fairer conditions for political contests ahead of the 2008 general election.
Four massive Bersih public rallies contributed to the slow demise of BN dominance. It also sparked a pivot to cross-communal politics centred around Anwar’s PH (Pakatan Harapan - Alliance of Hope) coalition.
Along the way, however, Anwar controversially faced fresh charges of sodomy in 2008, leading to a second five-year jail sentence starting in 2015, before receiving a royal pardon in the wake of the 2018 election. PH was formed while Anwar was in prison.
By the 2018 election, the position of BN and Prime Minister Najib Razak had become precarious. Najib’s personal popularity had been a boon for UMNO in the 2013 election, but by 2018 the situation had reversed, largely because of the 1MDB scandal.
BN’s slide was well underway before all this happened. But the collapse that had begun with the 2008 election was complete by the 2018 election. As a result, BN was in no position to form government.
However, because the flight of Malay voters away from BN had produced a windfall for the Islamist PAS, which dominated the PN (Perikatan Nasional) National Alliance coalition, PH’s position, although strengthened, did not result in a clear majority either.
The price paid for a political deal was that, at 92, Mahathir was afforded a second term as prime minister, with a vague promise of passing the baton to Anwar after the first two years of the new government.
In January 2020, the Mahathir government collapsed and Malaysia endured a chaotic period under another two prime ministers, Muhyiddin Yasin and Ismail Sabri Yakoob.
After the November 2022 general elections, a hung parliament meant multiracial Malaysia came very close to having an almost entirely Malay government. This would have meant that a community that represents 58% of citizens would dominate government.
PN and BN looked set to form government until the king intervened and gave Anwar a mandate to form a unity government with PH and BN. PN would form the opposition.
In the blur of personalities and parties, it is commonly overlooked that Malaysia very nearly entered into dangerous territory for which its communal political system would be completely unprepared.
Where to now?
Anwar’s February budget was well-received and his government so far appears largely credible and sensible, despite some disappointing compromises.
But the results of the six state elections this month have the potential to further consolidate his mandate or set in motion challenges to the longevity of his unity government.
The future of Malaysian politics has never before been so open. Old certainties, such as the unshakeable dominance of BN, have dissolved, along with former understandings of how communal politics works in Malaysia.
Some speak of PN surfing on a “green wave” of Islamist and ethno-nationalist sentiment. But it’s not that simple. What the long view reveals, however, is a rising tide of reform. That doesn’t tell us what will happen next, but it does give cause for optimism.
For a quarter of a century, Malaysians have campaigned for something better: for greater transparency and accountability, and a more equitable, cross-communal, governance. The journey is far from over, and success uncertain. But the way ahead, at least, is open.