In Tasmania the Liberals clearly won a majority last night with over 51% of the vote, ousting Labor after 16 years. However, in South Australia, a hung Parliament is likely with Labor winning 23 seats to the Liberals 22 and two Independents. It is possible, but unlikely, that those seat totals could change on late counting.
Tasmanian Election
The ABC’s results currently show that the Liberals have won 51.4% of the vote, up 12.4%. Labor has 27.4%, down 9.5% and the Greens have 13.5%, down 8.1%. Palmer United Party (PUP) debuted with 5.0%, but is not likely to win a seat.
Here is a table of results showing which parties are expected to win seats in each electorate. The two undecided seats are a Liberal vs Labor seat in Braddon, and a Labor vs Greens seat in Lyons. With 14 of 25 total seats, the Liberals have a decisive majority.
Here is a short rundown of each electorate’s results, from Kevin Bonham’s analysis. A quota is 1/6 of the vote, or 16.7%; it is required to win a seat under the Hare-Clark system.
In Bass, the Liberals have 3.4 quotas, Labor 1.4, the Greens 0.8 and PUP 0.3. It seems clear that the Greens should win the last seat.
In Braddon, the Liberals have 3.5 quotas, Labor 1.4, PUP 0.43 and the Greens 0.40. Because Hare-Clark is a candidate based system, there will be some leakage from the Liberal ticket, which could help Labor to win a second seat.
In Denison, the Liberals have 2.3 quotas, Labor 2.1 and the Greens 1.3. This is a very clear result.
In Franklin, the Liberals have 3.0 quotas, Labor 1.7 and the Greens 1.0. There is a small chance that vote leakage from the Liberals could cost them a 3rd seat, but this chance is not high.
In Lyons, the Liberals have 3.1 quotas, Labor 1.7 and the Greens 0.7. The last seat is a toss-up between Labor and the Greens.
SA Election
The pre-election expectation in South Australia was that the Liberals would win easily. It appears that bookies were at one stage paying $1.01 for a Liberal win and $13 for a Labor win. On election night, it actually seemed possible for Labor to win a majority in their own right, but they fell behind in Mitchell late in the count.
As it stands, Labor currently leads in 23 of the 47 seats, down 3 from the 2010 election. The Liberals lead in 22, up 4, and 2 Independents retained their seats. If those results hold, Labor would be one seat short of a majority. The closest seat where Labor leads is Colton, where Labor led by 51.5-48.5. Although the outstanding votes generally favour the Liberals, it is rare for a Labor election night lead above 51-49 to be overturned on late counting.
While it is likely that Labor has won more seats than the Liberals, the Liberals have currently won 44.3% of the statewide primary vote, up 2.6%, Labor has 36.8%, down 0.7%, the Greens have 8.5%, up 0.4% and Family First have 6.1%, up 0.7%. The Two Party Preferred (2PP) result will not be known for at least a few weeks, but it is likely that the Liberals won the 2PP vote by around 52.5-47.5, which would be a 1% swing to the Liberals. Labor has an electoral advantage in SA because the Liberals have huge majorities outside Adelaide, meaning they waste votes in those seats.
In the Upper House, the likely outcome is that the Liberals will win 4 of the 11 seats up at this election, Labor will win 4, the Greens 1, Family First 1 and Independent Nick Xenophon’s group will win 1. A similar result was produced in 2010, with the Xenophon seat going to Dignity for Disability (D4D). That means that the total seats for the 22-member Upper House will be Labor 8, Liberals 8, Greens 2, Family First 2, Xenophon 1 and D4D 1.
Poll Performance
The Greens’ performance has often been disappointing when compared to poll results, and this was certainly the case in Tasmania, where the Greens have only 13.5%, well short of Newspoll’s 16% or ReachTEL’s 18% the week before. Both polls also underestimated Labor’s Tasmanian vote by 4%. It may be that there was a surge to the Liberals in the final week, which Newspoll picked up but ReachTEL missed, as it was taken in the second last week.
In SA, the ReachTEL final 2PP result of 55-45 to the Liberals was definitely wrong; no primary votes have yet been given for that poll. Newspoll’s 16% Others vote compares poorly with the 10.4% actual result counting Family First as Others. As a result, Newspoll underestimated the votes of Labor, the Liberals and the Greens. It is possible that some people who told Newspoll they were voting for Others could not find a reasonable Other, and so had to vote for a major party instead. Newspoll’s final estimated 2PP of 52.3-47.7 to the Liberals is likely to be close to the actual result.